|
Post by sponge on Mar 9, 2013 11:45:50 GMT -8
Doc, heal thyself! There's gotta be a better way to advise Ovi than to call him and/or his ideas stupid. Reword that shit without the attitude or put the sponge on ignore, but don't pollute the thread. I guess they don't teach civility in med school... Please. I said that with good intentions, in hopes that he would listen. Much like iPad, I'm not really sure why I give a shit whether the rest of you make or lose money. I'm a blunt person. I don't like pussyfooting around. Just stick to your original plan sponge. It's a good one and a safe one. Missing out on $50 will not matter if we get to $800. Correct. $50 is not much but I may dip my toes in simply because I seriously think we are at the bottom. My only concern is overall market correction. The good news is that the economy is getting stronger and housing is recovering. So there is plenty of upside for market and aapl in the next 10 months.
|
|
|
Post by rickag on Mar 9, 2013 12:24:53 GMT -8
Thank everyone for the input on my post about covered calls.
The biggest mistake in my thinking was I forgot that if the stock at expiration is above the strike price it is automatically exercised (at least at TradeMonster it is)
In my muddled mind, I was thinking it wouldn't be called away unless the stock was above the strike price + the price of the option I sold.
|
|
|
Post by appledoc on Mar 9, 2013 12:52:32 GMT -8
My only concern is overall market correction. The good news is that the economy is getting stronger and housing is recovering. So there is plenty of upside for market and aapl in the next 10 months. I'm not so worried about a market correction affecting AAPL negatively. I think the dissociation of the past five months will continue. If anything, I expect a market correction to help funnel money into AAPL, as investors who don't want to hold too much cash start looking for bargains.
|
|
Ted
fire starter
Posts: 882
|
Post by Ted on Mar 9, 2013 16:29:23 GMT -8
My only concern is overall market correction. The good news is that the economy is getting stronger and housing is recovering. So there is plenty of upside for market and aapl in the next 10 months. I'm not so worried about a market correction affecting AAPL negatively. I think the dissociation of the past five months will continue. If anything, I expect a market correction to help funnel money into AAPL, as investors who don't want to hold too much cash start looking for bargains. I agree. Apple is not a leaf in the wind here. It's a lead balloon. The only thing that's going to help Apple now is Apple. When they actually say or do something substantial, when we get an inkling of real upbeat news, then sentiment can maybe really turn around, but we've been in this downtrending vacuum for so long it's just hard to fathom there's ever going to be sustained upside. Apple's inability or unwillingness to manage sentiment just screams in these dark times and makes them seem so limp, and Tim so ineffectual. Still, it's not new. It's business as usual for Apple (except it won't be as much fun without Steve). They're all busy back there and will be generating plenty of buzz soon enough. For now it's more of Apple on the ropes doing the rope-a-dope and silently taking all the abuse being thrown at them every fucking day. I believe Apple's best days are still to come. I just wish I had more shares and fewer Jan 14s.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Mar 9, 2013 17:20:46 GMT -8
No worries. I will take his advice and only buy when aapl goes up another $3. I think it highly likely we will see AAPL go up MORE than $3.00 this coming week. If the unwinding of options can cause the underlying stock to go up or down, based on the ratio of Puts and Calls being unwound, then this week should be a very good up week, as it starts with 91,000 more IN-THE-MONEY Puts than it has in off setting Calls. Unwinding those Puts requires the purchase of shares by the shorts. 91,000 Put contracts equals 9,100,000 shares being BOUGHT before the week starts. That's half an average day's (from last week) volume. Expressed another way that's 10.1% of all trades made last week. That's big.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Mar 9, 2013 17:34:02 GMT -8
No worries. I will take his advice and only buy when aapl goes up another $3. I think it highly likely we will see AAPL go up MORE than $3.00 this coming week. If the unwinding of options can cause the underlying stock to go up or down, based on the ratio of Puts and Calls being unwound, then this week should be a very good up week, as it starts with 91,000 more IN-THE-MONEY Puts than it has in off setting Calls. Unwinding those Puts requires the purchase of shares by the shorts. 91,000 Put contracts equals 9,100,000 shares being BOUGHT before the week starts. That's half an average day's (from last week) volume. Expressed another way that's 10.1% of all trades made last week. That's big. I'm a complete novice at TA, but I'm seeing strength in AAPL that needs confirmation to be ruled a reversal of the last 6 months downtrend. Nevertheless, I'm seeing some strength. There could be many reasons for it, my favorite being that, at the end of a quarter, and believing that Apple has made it's numbers, the institutions are in accumulation mode. A couple of those indications of accumulation are an increase in volume near the lows and in weekly trading averages, and a sharp increase in the number of Calls being opened vs Puts during the last 2 weeks. Also AAPL has been trading relatively flat since May 1, with a one day excursion outside that flat channel (May 4). Monday's trading will not confirm anything long term, but it could provide more evidence of a positive change in investor sentiment.
|
|
|
Post by joel90069 on Mar 9, 2013 20:04:28 GMT -8
No worries. I will take his advice and only buy when aapl goes up another $3. I think it highly likely we will see AAPL go up MORE than $3.00 this coming week. If the unwinding of options can cause the underlying stock to go up or down, based on the ratio of Puts and Calls being unwound, then this week should be a very good up week, as it starts with 91,000 more IN-THE-MONEY Puts than it has in off setting Calls. Unwinding those Puts requires the purchase of shares by the shorts. 91,000 Put contracts equals 9,100,000 shares being BOUGHT before the week starts. That's half an average day's (from last week) volume. Expressed another way that's 10.1% of all trades made last week. That's big. I'm not following your statement "Unwinding those Puts requires the purchase of shares by the shorts." Couldn't many of those shorts be already holding shares? Am I misunderstanding your point.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Mar 10, 2013 3:49:15 GMT -8
I think it highly likely we will see AAPL go up MORE than $3.00 this coming week. If the unwinding of options can cause the underlying stock to go up or down, based on the ratio of Puts and Calls being unwound, then this week should be a very good up week, as it starts with 91,000 more IN-THE-MONEY Puts than it has in off setting Calls. Unwinding those Puts requires the purchase of shares by the shorts. 91,000 Put contracts equals 9,100,000 shares being BOUGHT before the week starts. That's half an average day's (from last week) volume. Expressed another way that's 10.1% of all trades made last week. That's big. I'm not following your statement "Unwinding those Puts requires the purchase of shares by the shorts." Couldn't many of those shorts be already holding shares? Am I misunderstanding your point. Yes. The current disparity between open Calls and open Puts, that are likely to expire in-the-money, is 91,000 contracts. Those contracts will have to be covered (unwound), which entails buying shares (somewhere in the neighborhood of 9,100,000 shares).
|
|
icam
Member
Posts: 447
|
Post by icam on Mar 10, 2013 6:46:20 GMT -8
|
|
|
Post by applemuncher on Mar 10, 2013 9:43:05 GMT -8
I'm not following your statement "Unwinding those Puts requires the purchase of shares by the shorts." Couldn't many of those shorts be already holding shares? Am I misunderstanding your point. Yes. The current disparity between open Calls and open Puts, that are likely to expire in-the-money, is 91,000 contracts. Those contracts will have to be covered (unwound), which entails buying shares (somewhere in the neighborhood of 9,100,000 shares). Hi Gregg. A seller of in-the-money put contracts can simply "buy to close" his option. Someone holding an in-the-money put contract can "sell to close" his position. When this happens, no underlying stock is purchased or sold, and the option contract is closed. Your statement that "Those contracts will have to be covered (unwound), which entails buying shares (somewhere in the neighborhood of 9,100,000 shares)" is incorrect. It is interesting to note that only about 17% of option contracts are exercised. community.tradeking.com/members/optionsguy/blogs/11260-what-percentage-of-options-get-exercised
|
|
|
Post by appledoc on Mar 10, 2013 11:47:18 GMT -8
Seeing a lot of hit pieces on the iWatch this weekend.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Mar 10, 2013 11:55:37 GMT -8
|
|
|
Post by mace on Mar 10, 2013 12:30:29 GMT -8
At this point, why AAPL dropped from $705 to current prices is not longer relevant. What is relevant is whether AAPL would eventually bottom and rebounce past $705. Based on anecdotal observations, iPhone is still the gold standard that people aspire to own. iPad is selling very well. There is still plenty of $ in iPod. $ in Software and Service is getting significant. Ecosystem# is strong. Network effect apps* are slowly taking hold. #iTunes, iTunes U and iTuneStore/AppStore/iBookStore. *Facetime, iMessage, GameCentre and iCloud. Still many geographical areas to expand to. So the probability of AAPL would rebounce towards $705 is very high.
|
|
|
Post by Luckychoices on Mar 10, 2013 13:13:34 GMT -8
At this point, why AAPL dropped from $705 to current prices is not longer relevant. What is relevant is whether AAPL would eventually bottom and rebounce past $705. Based on anecdotal observations, iPhone is still the gold standard that people aspire to own. iPad is selling very well. There is still plenty of $ in iPod. $ in Software and Service is getting significant. Ecosystem# is strong. Network effect apps* are slowly taking hold. #iTunes, iTunes U and iTuneStore/AppStore/iBookStore. *Facetime, iMessage, GameCentre and iCloud. Still many geographical areas to expand to. So the probability of AAPL would rebounce towards $705 is very high. mace, that makes at least two of us that think so.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Mar 10, 2013 13:17:45 GMT -8
Yes. The current disparity between open Calls and open Puts, that are likely to expire in-the-money, is 91,000 contracts. Those contracts will have to be covered (unwound), which entails buying shares (somewhere in the neighborhood of 9,100,000 shares). Hi Gregg. A seller of in-the-money put contracts can simply "buy to close" his option. Someone holding an in-the-money put contract can "sell to close" his position. When this happens, no underlying stock is purchased or sold, and the option contract is closed. Your statement that "Those contracts will have to be covered (unwound), which entails buying shares (somewhere in the neighborhood of 9,100,000 shares)" is incorrect. It is interesting to note that only about 17% of option contracts are exercised. community.tradeking.com/members/optionsguy/blogs/11260-what-percentage-of-options-get-exercisedI'll buy that, but then that means it takes fewer contracts to be unwound, to influence the direction of a stock on expiry. If you do the math on this Friday's Open Interest, you'll see that well over half will expire worthless. I think that contributes mightily to the 83% that don't get exercised. We've all seen the Friday fade for the past few months, and after much discussion the unwinding effect was believed to be the cause. I appreciate the additional information, but I don't think it changes anything. Note: I'm open to further data points and discussion on this.
|
|
bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
|
Post by bud777 on Mar 10, 2013 13:23:37 GMT -8
There was an interesting video on Bloomberg about the recent reduction of the Samsung 1 billion dollar award. The press reported it as a reduction and good news for Samsung. Actually, the judge said there were two kind of patents at issue, design patents and usability patents. She found that they were not separated in the trial. She threw out the award for one kind of patent ( I think it was the design patents, but I am not sure). And ordered a new trial just for those. The bottom line is that Apple could end up with a greater than 1 billion dollar judgement. The video is called "why Samsung should fear a retrial". I found it on the Bloomberg app.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Mar 10, 2013 14:37:55 GMT -8
At this point, why AAPL dropped from $705 to current prices is not longer relevant. What is relevant is whether AAPL would eventually bottom and rebounce past $705. Based on anecdotal observations, iPhone is still the gold standard that people aspire to own. iPad is selling very well. There is still plenty of $ in iPod. $ in Software and Service is getting significant. Ecosystem# is strong. Network effect apps* are slowly taking hold. #iTunes, iTunes U and iTuneStore/AppStore/iBookStore. *Facetime, iMessage, GameCentre and iCloud. Still many geographical areas to expand to. So the probability of AAPL would rebounce towards $705 is very high. That's more like the Mace I think I know. ;D Of course, he is talking in potentially longer timeframes.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Mar 10, 2013 14:42:16 GMT -8
Seeing a lot of hit pieces on the iWatch this weekend. Heheh. For some quick entertainment, one can Web search for "why the iPad will fail" and take note of the timestamps on the "claim chowder", to borrow a phrase from Gruber.
|
|
|
Post by applemuncher on Mar 10, 2013 15:00:10 GMT -8
Hi Gregg. A seller of in-the-money put contracts can simply "buy to close" his option. Someone holding an in-the-money put contract can "sell to close" his position. When this happens, no underlying stock is purchased or sold, and the option contract is closed. Your statement that "Those contracts will have to be covered (unwound), which entails buying shares (somewhere in the neighborhood of 9,100,000 shares)" is incorrect. It is interesting to note that only about 17% of option contracts are exercised. community.tradeking.com/members/optionsguy/blogs/11260-what-percentage-of-options-get-exercisedI'll buy that, but then that means it takes fewer contracts to be unwound, to influence the direction of a stock on expiry. If you do the math on this Friday's Open Interest, you'll see that well over half will expire worthless. I think that contributes mightily to the 83% that don't get exercised. We've all seen the Friday fade for the past few months, and after much discussion the unwinding effect was believed to be the cause. I appreciate the additional information, but I don't think it changes anything. Note: I'm open to further data points and discussion on this. Max Pain, market maker manipulation, and pinning have been discussed here often. I happen to believe that pinning does exist, and is a natural result of market makers trying to maintain a "delta-neutral" position in their portfolio. finance.yahoo.com/news/apple-dynamics-pinning-144030730.html
|
|
|
Post by mace on Mar 10, 2013 16:14:25 GMT -8
Keeping the secret and therefore the magic around products is great, but I don't think the same surprise tactic applies well to the financial management of the company. When it comes to managing the cash and other financial matter, a more forthright and communicative policy should apply.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Mar 10, 2013 16:40:42 GMT -8
Did you quote yourself there? Good quote in any case. Gotta keep in mind that Apple is a supertanker in many ways - you can hate on it all you want, but even when Apple is changing for what may well be the better, it takes time to turn that ship around. Cook will still need time to "improve" upon Apple's "bad habits" of shareholder and general PR communication. And I doubt it'll ever be the level of communication most would like. But that's how it is.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Mar 10, 2013 17:33:40 GMT -8
And I doubt it'll ever be the level of communication most would like. But that's how it is. There will always be those that even after being given the keys to the kingdom, will say its all an elaborate conspiracy. You'll find that these people can't be convinced of anything, because their IQ (and therefore their ability to manage a firm less than 1% the size of Apple) is lower than whale shit.. Whoops, I apologize if I upset anyone with that comment. Its just that I've seen to much evidence supporting the observation.
|
|