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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Mar 15, 2013 8:39:27 GMT -8
Any speculation on today's (very nice) share price increase on fairly decent volume? Is it just reaction to the Samsung presentation or is there something else afoot? I think the markets realize Apple is not dead, makes a lot of money, won't lose a ton of customers to the G4, and gets the next play in the Game of Phones (tm). this is the first week in over two months I have bought back my expiring covered calls at a minor loss. The 440's sold at 3.20, bough back at 3.30...I want my shares....we may run here a bit..
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Post by sponge on Mar 15, 2013 8:40:43 GMT -8
Given the quick move back over 440, I think we will close around 445 and continue on Monday.
Volume over 25 million would be very bullish.
Still not buying any shares. I want us to hold 443 by Wednesday.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,438
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Post by chinacat on Mar 15, 2013 8:42:29 GMT -8
So far so good. Let's not let OE ruin the fun. Anyone know where max pain is today? Mav, mace, Lovey...or anyone else who seemed to have a somewhat personal connection to JD...I hope you are lobbying him to return to the fold. Although I disagree with him on many topics, his regular max pain reporting is only one of the things that I miss in his absence.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Mar 15, 2013 8:46:28 GMT -8
Anyone know where max pain is today? Mav, mace, Lovey...or anyone else who seemed to have a somewhat personal connection to JD...I hope you are lobbying him to return to the fold. Although I disagree with him on many topics, his regular max pain reporting is only one of the things that I miss in his absence. I, too, miss JD....that cranky old fart. He at least appreciated Star Trek. (Maybe if he is lurking we can pull him back in...).
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Post by mace on Mar 15, 2013 9:01:04 GMT -8
Anyone know where max pain is today? Mav, mace, Lovey...or anyone else who seemed to have a somewhat personal connection to JD...I hope you are lobbying him to return to the fold. Although I disagree with him on many topics, his regular max pain reporting is only one of the things that I miss in his absence. I'm not connected with him, was aware of max pain since dabbling in options from 2006. Btw, his OI range can be obtained from Travis' site, max pain can be obtained from maximum-pain.com which also provide many other info.
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Post by mace on Mar 15, 2013 9:02:49 GMT -8
Given the quick move back over 440, I think we will close around 445 and continue on Monday. Closing above $445 today portends the possibility of a gap up on Monday above $460. Fyi, a bearish divergence has developed in the 1-min chart so ... keep our fingers crossed and hold our breath.
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Post by artman1033 on Mar 15, 2013 9:03:00 GMT -8
John Browett Says He “Just Didn’t Fit”“Apple is a truly fantastic business. The people are great, they’ve got great products, it’s got a great culture and I loved working there, it’s a fantastic business. The issue there was that I just didn’t fit within the way they run the business. It was one of those things where you’re rejected for fit rather than competency.”
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Post by Xphilos on Mar 15, 2013 9:07:11 GMT -8
Dow flat, AMZN down, GOOG down, AAPL ... up.
No good pinning reason for us to be pushing up past 440 on an OE day.
430 calls and puts are neck-and-neck 435 calls 15K / puts 7K 440 calls 22K / puts 8K
Calls have puts beat all the rest of the way up. This move up today feels like sentiment. I want to call it a head fake followed by tanking into the close, but somehow I don't think it's going to.
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Post by terps530 on Mar 15, 2013 9:08:19 GMT -8
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Post by mace on Mar 15, 2013 9:08:38 GMT -8
John Browett Says He “Just Didn’t Fit”“Apple is a truly fantastic business. The people are great, they’ve got great products, it’s got a great culture and I loved working there, it’s a fantastic business. The issue there was that I just didn’t fit within the way they run the business. It was one of those things where you’re rejected for fit rather than competency.” He is too straight jacket, Apple culture is casual and informal. Actually, many high tech firms e.g. Google, have similar culture.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Mar 15, 2013 9:19:40 GMT -8
I'm here all week....
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Post by terps530 on Mar 15, 2013 9:19:40 GMT -8
Dow flat, AMZN down, GOOG down, AAPL ... up. No good pinning reason for us to be pushing up past 440 on an OE day. 430 calls and puts are neck-and-neck 435 calls 15K / puts 7K 440 calls 22K / puts 8K Calls have puts beat all the rest of the way up. This move up today feels like sentiment. I want to call it a head fake followed by tanking into the close, but somehow I don't think it's going to. # of calls/puts is one thing, but actual value of them, at least to me, should hold more weight. As of this morning's numbers, the value of the total calls/puts is lowest at 445, which means it's the lowest cost to the options writers. This also means that a 445 close causes the most overall pain cost to buyers of options. maximum-pain.com/option-data.aspxof course they aren't always correct, and these #'s are changing during the day, which I don't have access to, but it's a good reference leading up to expirations. 440-445 are really close to each other, so I'd say it could be either one, but the whole 435-450 range is pretty close for 'the battle of the lowest cost to the writers'.
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Post by artman1033 on Mar 15, 2013 9:21:58 GMT -8
It appears BILL MILLER is quoting ME: My post from another site: Re: Want AAPL higher fast? Here's how to please Wall Street. Here's my idea: Tim Cook is speaking: 1) The board of directors have authorized the purchase of $100 Billion of AAPL stock at various prices in the next year. Apple may buy it tomorrow or Monday. No further notice will be given 2) Apple will repatriate all of the foreign earnings to the USA. No one likes to pay taxes. But let's face it. The rich have to pay more taxes. Apple is the richest. 3) Apple will increase the dividend to $15.00 per share per quarter. 4) Apple management believes Apple is a growth company. Apple does not need more cash on hand than is necessary. Apple management will determine how much money is needed. The BOD is looking at a range of $10-20 Billion. ALL other cash will be returned to shareholders in the form of dividend or share buyback.
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Post by phoebear611 on Mar 15, 2013 9:23:33 GMT -8
I agree on JD - he was opinionated but it was who he was. I enjoyed his insights and quite frankly, his wit. I thought he was value added. Would welcome a return to the Board.
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Post by ibuyer on Mar 15, 2013 9:25:09 GMT -8
I'm here all week.... How about an Ice Cream day if we hold 445? ;D
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Post by Lstream on Mar 15, 2013 9:34:59 GMT -8
Keep in mind that Apple is focused on improving functions without compromising on power. Apple would need amazing new features to add that size of a battery. I think we will see it in 2014 with the larger screen iPhone. Fingerprint authentication, better flash, faster wifi, faster LTE, faster processor, faster video recording with pinch to zoom, and other background running apps, will need a bigger battery. And yet the bigger phone will weight the same as the smaller iPhone 5 and have the same 10 hours. That is progress. Power consumption and battery life are biggest issues for everyone. Any school function or office has iPhones plugged in. People are using them all the time. In case there is some interest in actual reality, please note the following: 1. Faster LTE - the carrier determines this not Apple. Even today, all phones that support LTE are capable of of much faster speeds than the network is capable of delivering. 2. Faster Video Recording - this makes no sense. Video needs to record at a rate that captures real time. Phones already do this. 3. Many of the cited features are such minor contributors to battery life, that correlating them with battery life is irrelevant. Features don't drive power performance, and don't require a bigger battery. Improved battery life will come from one or more of the following: 1. Better power density - not something Apple currently controls. They buy batteries just like everyone else. 2. Lower powered displays that do not compromise performance. Hopefully something that Apple gets exclusive access to, but no guarantees. 3. More efficient processor. Something that Apple can control. 4. More efficient radios. Just like batteries - right now Apple is just an integrator of third party products. Maybe this can be brought in house and improved, but so far there is no such evidence.
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Post by tuffett on Mar 15, 2013 9:42:10 GMT -8
With the S4 launch 6 weeks away (if on time) this is a great opportunity for Apple. Hopefully a lot of people will be holding off on buying for a while and Apple can push iPhones. Then, near the launch date they can announce the iPhone 5S with a killer feature and screw Samsung over. Nothing would make me happier.
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Post by Lstream on Mar 15, 2013 9:48:38 GMT -8
With the S4 launch 6 weeks away (if on time) this is a great opportunity for Apple. Hopefully a lot of people will be holding off on buying for a while and Apple can push iPhones. Then, near the launch date they can announce the iPhone 5S with a killer feature and screw Samsung over. Nothing would make me happier. This was a real head scratcher to me. Why pre-announce? They are going to kill S3 sales in the meantime. Are sales so bad, that they don't care?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 15, 2013 9:51:22 GMT -8
The battery is 2600mAh versus iPhone 5 1440mAh. Also, you can change the battery. Gee, I wonder why? You think it might be because the thing is as big as a boat? How much more battery life do you get with the extra amperage? With the extra demands on the processor and display i'm really curious.
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Post by phoebear611 on Mar 15, 2013 9:52:02 GMT -8
Wow - most loved CEO - Mark Zuckerberg with 99% Tim Cook falls to 93% with his employees
(This is internal voting)
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Post by phoebear611 on Mar 15, 2013 9:53:22 GMT -8
The battery is 2600mAh versus iPhone 5 1440mAh. Also, you can change the battery. Gee, I wonder why? You think it might be because the thing is as big as a boat? How much more battery life do you get with the extra amperage? With the extra demands on the processor and display i'm really curious. I asked this early this morning - but how do guys carry it? It does not fit in your back pocket. I had a friend demonstrate. I don't get it.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Mar 15, 2013 9:55:05 GMT -8
With the S4 launch 6 weeks away (if on time) this is a great opportunity for Apple. Hopefully a lot of people will be holding off on buying for a while and Apple can push iPhones. Then, near the launch date they can announce the iPhone 5S with a killer feature and screw Samsung over. Nothing would make me happier. This was a real head scratcher to me. Why pre-announce? They are going to kill S3 sales in the meantime. Are sales so bad, that they don't care? Yes, this is bizarre...was Samsung, perhaps, worried about some kind of Apple to be announced rollout which might have come in March, and felt they had to push this news out just as quickly as they possible could to keep the buzz advantage. Well, I don't think the reviews between now and availability date are going to help the Galaxy family of phones. We've seen what it has....and if beta users (media) do their usual job of nitpicking the negatives, it could cause some deflation in anticipation....
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Post by jdubuc on Mar 15, 2013 10:05:19 GMT -8
Looking for some famous "non-advice" if one of you doesn't mind.
I had the short side of one of my lost-cause BPS trades assigned today. It's an April 640/660 and I was assigned 200 shares at $660, which were added to my existing pool of common (and has adjusted my cost-basis on those). I'm still holding the 2 $640 puts and trying to decide whether to exercise them, sell them along with the 200 shares that were assigned, or just hold on and see what the next month brings.
That said, the cash balance in the account looks pretty frightening right now, so I'm quite tempted to exercise or sell to bring things more back to "normal". The net effect seems to be the same for either of those options, unless I'm missing something?
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Post by CdnPhoto on Mar 15, 2013 10:08:15 GMT -8
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Post by prazan on Mar 15, 2013 10:23:27 GMT -8
A quick note on my venture into the wild. Last week I took Amtrak to Boston and then back on the weekend, attending a conference attracting about 10,000 academics and writers. On the train and at the convention, I saw one SIII, in the sweaty grip of a bearded 20 something male wearing a skull cap. Saw fewer than a dozen variations of Android phones. Everyone else was carrying an iPhone. This isn't meant to be a definitive survey, but if the SIII has taken over the U.S., I haven't seen it in the data or the wild.
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Post by terps530 on Mar 15, 2013 10:25:31 GMT -8
Looking for some famous "non-advice" if one of you doesn't mind. I had the short side of one of my lost-cause BPS trades assigned today. It's an April 640/660 and I was assigned 200 shares at $660, which were added to my existing pool of common (and has adjusted my cost-basis on those). I'm still holding the 2 $640 puts and trying to decide whether to exercise them, sell them along with the 200 shares that were assigned, or just hold on and see what the next month brings. That said, the cash balance in the account looks pretty frightening right now, so I'm quite tempted to exercise or sell to bring things more back to "normal". The net effect seems to be the same for either of those options, unless I'm missing something? This happened to me last month for a 610/620 BPS. The net effect is the same if you get out of the 2 640 puts and sell the 200 shares, minus some fees etc. The key is to sell them at the same time, even if you are tempted to try to sell the puts on an AAPL dip, and then sell the shares on an AAPL rise. yes in effect, you would gain on your old spread that way, but if it goes the wrong way, or you miss out on a Bid/Ask and end up chasing, it could become more loss than the original spread value. I'd bail on them as soon as you can if possible before the brokerage gets upset. This happened to me and I tried to offset some of the loss by splitting the sales. Ending up getting a temp restriction on my account. If you feel bad about 'giving up' on the spread, you can just buy 2 APR 640 calls for for $6 + commission lol.
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Post by mace on Mar 15, 2013 10:36:19 GMT -8
I asked this early this morning - but how do guys carry it? It does not fit in your back pocket. I had a friend demonstrate. I don't get it. Is meant for '50 era stereotype women who love to carry a slim handbag. iPad would be too big for it. iPad mini would fit but carrying an iPad mini + an iPhone is just too much, a ptablet would be ideal.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 15, 2013 10:51:53 GMT -8
I asked this early this morning - but how do guys carry it? It does not fit in your back pocket. I had a friend demonstrate. I don't get it. Is meant for '50 era stereotype women who love to carry a slim handbag. iPad would be too big for it. iPad mini would fit but carrying an iPad mini + an iPhone is just too much, a ptablet would be ideal. It was either last week, or the week before that I reported on an article (forget where) that described Galaxy sales as being primarily in "emerging" ( is that politically correct speak for poor) economies, where the expense for both a handset and a tablet is beyond reach. Consumers in those countries would like an iPhone, but can't afford both. The upshot of this is that Samsung is paying more to produce a 5" Galaxy, but not generating as much revenue as a pure tablet.
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Post by tuffett on Mar 15, 2013 10:54:25 GMT -8
A quick note on my venture into the wild. Last week I took Amtrak to Boston and then back on the weekend, attending a conference attracting about 10,000 academics and writers. On the train and at the convention, I saw one SIII, in the sweaty grip of a bearded 20 something male wearing a skull cap. Saw fewer than a dozen variations of Android phones. Everyone else was carrying an iPhone. This isn't meant to be a definitive survey, but if the SIII has taken over the U.S., I haven't seen it in the data or the wild. My observations are slightly different: Airports - iPhones and iPads EVERYWHERE. Was very please to see this Work - noticeably more people with S3s and Notes. Still predominantly iPhones but less so than before. These are mid to high income professionals so not a typical demographic that is attracted by cheap Android devices. Mostly engineers so perhaps the "nerd factor" plays a part in people going for specs over UI. Around town - A lot more Samsung phones out there. Depending on the day I sometimes see more Galaxy phones than iPhones. This is fairly concerning and a huge shift from my observations just a few months ago. Friends - we're mostly well educated middle class young professionals. All but one (who is an IT nerd that hates Apple) started with iPhone as our first real smartphone. I'd say about a third have switched - all S3s except for one Lumia. Most cite screen size as the main factor. I'm certain many would switch back if Apple offered a bigger screen option. I live in Canada so it may be a bit different here.
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Post by sponge on Mar 15, 2013 11:00:43 GMT -8
Volume is down and barely over 440. I now expect 435 next week.
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