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Post by lovemyipad on Mar 15, 2013 16:17:10 GMT -8
The bar is open!
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Post by lovemyipad on Mar 15, 2013 16:43:27 GMT -8
Looking for some famous "non-advice" if one of you doesn't mind. I had the short side of one of my lost-cause BPS trades assigned today. It's an April 640/660 and I was assigned 200 shares at $660, which were added to my existing pool of common (and has adjusted my cost-basis on those). I'm still holding the 2 $640 puts and trying to decide whether to exercise them, sell them along with the 200 shares that were assigned, or just hold on and see what the next month brings. That said, the cash balance in the account looks pretty frightening right now, so I'm quite tempted to exercise or sell to bring things more back to "normal". The net effect seems to be the same for either of those options, unless I'm missing something? This happened to me last month for a 610/620 BPS. The net effect is the same if you get out of the 2 640 puts and sell the 200 shares, minus some fees etc. The key is to sell them at the same time, even if you are tempted to try to sell the puts on an AAPL dip, and then sell the shares on an AAPL rise. yes in effect, you would gain on your old spread that way, but if it goes the wrong way, or you miss out on a Bid/Ask and end up chasing, it could become more loss than the original spread value. I'd bail on them as soon as you can if possible before the brokerage gets upset. This happened to me and I tried to offset some of the loss by splitting the sales. Ending up getting a temp restriction on my account. If you feel bad about 'giving up' on the spread, you can just buy 2 APR 640 calls for for $6 + commission lol. Terps, excellent non-advice!
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Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
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Post by Mav on Mar 15, 2013 17:02:07 GMT -8
A nice week for AAPL for once.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Mar 15, 2013 18:14:53 GMT -8
A nice week for AAPL for once. Yes, and we built to a fine close on Friday, shrugging off mid-week FUD. Had we closed at 435 or 440 today it would have been explainable due to OI ...but we held strength as the contracts were closed out. Then a nice last fifteen minutes. Up a buck fifty in AH too. Felt gooood.
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Post by prazan on Mar 15, 2013 18:20:40 GMT -8
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Post by sponge on Mar 15, 2013 20:18:56 GMT -8
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Post by ammaroo1 on Mar 15, 2013 21:23:07 GMT -8
[td][/td] Please show me the math behind your determination that half of S3 users would switch to a 5" iPhone. Go ahead, I'm waiting. Go ahead and chalk me up. While you're at it, learn some basic mathematics please so we can have a meaningful discussion. Easy, Apple already has 20% market share of ALL mobile phones, so that number will carry over to this new device category with certainty. And since it is a subcategory of smartphone, which Apple dominates, you can safely double that number giving 40%. And since Apple ALSO captures 70% share of tablet space its not a stretch at all to 50% for the phablet 50% is conservative. Simple math
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Post by ammaroo1 on Mar 15, 2013 21:35:58 GMT -8
And according to that nice article above, Apple's mobile share is now at 27.2% so you can take that extra 7.2% as a cushion to those numbers. With all respect...
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Post by applemuncher on Mar 15, 2013 21:53:22 GMT -8
Are you kidding? There's no way to determine that it's half unless you have a number. To explain it via an absurd example, his statement would be true if one iPhone user switched to Android and four Android users switched to iPhone. Thats exactly what he's saying. I used 50% as a conservative number. I'll just chalk you up to another one who doesn't get it... Hi ammaroo1. I would like to see a productive and interesting conversation about Apple. Saying that other members "don't get it" is childish and counterproductive. It stifles meaningful conversation and creates a negative atmosphere. This is not the Yahoo message board. Have a nice weekend.
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Post by sponge on Mar 15, 2013 22:41:46 GMT -8
Thats exactly what he's saying. I used 50% as a conservative number. I'll just chalk you up to another one who doesn't get it... Hi ammaroo1. I would like to see a productive and interesting conversation about Apple. Saying that other members "don't get it" is childish and counterproductive. It stifles meaningful conversation and creates a negative atmosphere. This is not the Yahoo message board. Have a nice weekend. Since you are giving advice on proper posting protocol, you may want to add a few posters to your list. Ammaroo1 is obviously frustrated with a few too many bears that seem to be fixated with the low stock price, cheaper phones, Samsung, and lack of communication regarding dividend and buybacks from management. Ammo I don't think your numbers are correct. The 27% market share only reflects smartphones. I personally see that go to 30% and as the smartphone adoption continues Apple will increase iPhone sales in a healthy manner for the next 6 years. Smartphone adoption has decreased significantly from 100% to 39% last quarter. It is supposed to drop to 14% for this quarter. I used that figure to come out with my estimate for sales number in this quarter at 39 million iPhones. We may be surprised with a higher defection rate from Android to the iPhone.
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Post by ammaroo1 on Mar 15, 2013 23:30:50 GMT -8
Oh sorry, it wasn't clear from the article thats what that particular number was referring to. The phrasing made it sound a more general number than was meant. 50% of the phablet space is just my WAG. My point is not an actual number per se, but that Apple stands to take a significant chunk out of the 5" pie when they release their product and yes, that would include peeling off samsung share when they upgrade in the next cycle. It will happen. And that will be a source of FUTURE growth.
There are no guarantees of course but you just have to look at the history and past strategy of this company and it makes total sense.
And I don't mean to be insulting but a lot of people don't get AAPL, not only here but everywhere. It's not an insult, its the truth. Don't be so pompous to think I'm singling you out. But I do get tired people who are just parroting the same old crap, like we never heard it before. Yeah, we get it, and frankly its old. Real old.
You see, there has never been a greater disconnect between perception and reality in regards to AAPL over the 30 years I have been following this company, than in the last couple weeks and months. It is really quite remarkable, and smart investing treats it as an opportunity...rather than following the miserable crowd.
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Post by applemuncher on Mar 16, 2013 0:17:33 GMT -8
Oh sorry, it wasn't clear from the article thats what that particular number was referring to. The phrasing made it sound a more general number than was meant. 50% of the phablet space is just my WAG. My point is not an actual number per se, but that Apple stands to take a significant chunk out of the 5" pie when they release their product and yes, that would include peeling off samsung share when they upgrade in the next cycle. It will happen. And that will be a source of FUTURE growth. There are no guarantees of course but you just have to look at the history and strategy of this company and it makes total sense. And I don't mean to be insulting but a lot of people don't get AAPL, not only here but everywhere. It's not an insult, its the truth. Don't think I'm singling you out. But I do get tired people who are just parroting the same old crap, like we never heard it before. Yeah, we get it, and frankly its old. Real old. You see, there has never been a greater disconnect between perception and reality in regards to AAPL in the last 30 years, since I have been following this company, than in the last couple weeks and months. It is really quite remarkable, and a smart investing looks at it as an opportunity...rather than following the miserable crowd, Hi ammaroo1. I liked this post and I see your point. I know hindsight is 20/20, but don't you think a better strategy for Apple would have been to have planned for a 5" iPhone launch six months ago so it could be on the market now? Apple could still be selling the iPhone 5 and the 5" iPhone. It would have been a similar strategy to what Samsung is doing with the S4 and Note 2. I fear that in 2014 it will be more difficult to get Android folks to switch to iPhone. I agree with you that Apple looks very attractive at these levels. By biggest fear now is the probability of -20% EPS growth for FYQ213. I hope this is already baked into the stock price.
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Post by ammaroo1 on Mar 16, 2013 1:18:41 GMT -8
No absolutely not! I don't think it would have been a better strategy because: 1. Six months ago it simply wasn't a proven market like it is today, making it a much riskier proposition. 2. Even today it is a smaller, though fast growing, segment of the market. 3. It is better strategically to be second mover in any growth market. 3b. When taking significant share of a given market, it is best to hit it at the right stage, after it is proven and has become sizable enough to maximize profits. 4. Having an additional product line has margin and supply chain implications. 5. Apples actual data has proven they have taken the correct approach thus far, and are in the sweet spot. 6. Samsung(main competitor) is now approaching a vulnerable position rather than one of strength. (not true if Apple were to act too soon) 7. Apple has a product, they are just waiting for the right time.
Ok time compress for a single customer; if a company has the opportunity to sell 2 products to the same customer rather than 1 doesn't it make total sense to do so? But to do that you have to sell it to them one at a time!
To put it another way, most of those who wish for a 5" iPhone have bought the 4" iPhone 5 anyway, while some have gone to Samsung. Meanwhile Apple is netting more customers than they have lost as most prefer a smaller form factor iOS etc. The beauty is is that when the iPhone plus or whatever is released the combined set of those three groups of people will be eager to buy the newer product, whereas if it had been released too soon you would have missed out on a whole round two of sales, while having the added cost of another supply and manufacturing chain for another product, squeezing margin. So thus the effect is compounded.
Consumers are fungible. If you are going to cannibalize your sales you might as well do it after you sold them your first product, then make them buy something else.
The great thing I love about Apple is that while people are frothing at the mouth waiting for this iPhone plus, is that they will probably release the 5s in the same form, with a few spec upgrades and just ONE killer must have feature, i.e. fingerprint unlock, and they force another round of upgrading all the while stoking the demand for the next round even further. Omg I love it...
Ive said before, that so many people are complaining that Apple doesn't make a bigger phone, or this or that feature, is just proof of the intense DEMAND for Apple products rather than a negative. It would be much more a concern if people just didn't care...but they do! Everyone does! It is a reason to be optimistic.
Android is a mess. Literally and figuratively. There is no unity anywhere. You have a rift opening up now between Samsung and Google. At one point Google is going to try to unify the user base with the xPhone and Samsung is moving to their own Tizen OS . A house divided will not stand. Where else will those consumers go besides Apple?
If you are just concerned about AAPL FYQ213, you are doing it wrong.
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Post by Lstream on Mar 16, 2013 2:33:30 GMT -8
Amarroo1 and AppleMuncher - very good debate and posts. Thanks.
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Post by redinaustin on Mar 16, 2013 6:46:00 GMT -8
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Post by hellojapan on Mar 16, 2013 8:05:55 GMT -8
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Post by hellojapan on Mar 16, 2013 8:07:03 GMT -8
"All of this is not helped by the fact that Weibo data shows that many of the stars were sending their complaints from Apple devices."
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
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Post by bud777 on Mar 16, 2013 8:09:12 GMT -8
Interesting article, thanks g for posting it. So what happens to Google when Samsung goes to its own OS and then Apple and Samsung create their own search? I don't think I want to be holding Google stock.
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Post by sponge on Mar 16, 2013 8:12:05 GMT -8
I believe one reason the bigger phone has not come out, is because Apple is waiting for one component that will blow us away. It won't be the bigger screen, but rather some new feature. I think it will be an unique battery, unique wifi radio, unique camera, or finger print scanner.
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Post by moltenfire on Mar 16, 2013 11:00:41 GMT -8
Starting Monday, March 18, 2013, the Chicago Board Options Exchange, Inc. (CBOE) will be introducing trading in Mini-Options on five popular stocks and Exchange-Traded Funds. Mini-Options are a new options class that are one tenth the size of standard options and will be available on Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Google (GOOG), the SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD) and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY).
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Post by artman1033 on Mar 16, 2013 11:11:57 GMT -8
Starting Monday, March 18, 2013, the Chicago Board Options Exchange, Inc. (CBOE) will be introducing trading in Mini-Options on five popular stocks and Exchange-Traded Funds. Mini-Options are a new options class that are one tenth the size of standard options and will be available on Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Google (GOOG), the SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD) and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY). I forgot! Thanks for the heads up; Madness will ensue!
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Post by rezonate on Mar 16, 2013 12:13:02 GMT -8
Apple not only transitioned to iPhone 5, the also transitioned developers to dual 4:3 and 16:9 ratios. This is the third such developer transition. They did this once going from iPhone to iPad and again from non-retina to retina. A native "plus (+)" app now covers 3GS, 4, 5, iPad 2/mini and iPad 3/4 resolutions (lost track of where iTouch comes in but it falls in behind the flagships.) Now, I absolutely love my iPad mini. Gave away the iPad 3 to my mother-in-law and will preorder a top end iPad mini (retina) when announced. But every time I try to jam this mini into a jacket or the back pocket of my jeans I want it to be just 1cm slimmer. There is nothing keeping Apple from going 16:9 on the mini now. Developers have had a year in dual 4:3 & 16:9 world. A 16:9 iPad Mini retina with cell option may be why all the quiet from the orchard. I feel the gates are about to open. Apple all time high may not be far behind.
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Post by artman1033 on Mar 16, 2013 13:30:35 GMT -8
How Steve Dahl lost 65 pounds The radio/podcast host tells Time Out Chicago how he lost weight. As told to Jessica Herman Published: August 17, 2011
Radio/podcast host Steve Dahl (dahl.com) tells us over the phone that he’s been struggling to lose weight for the past 46 years. He tried every diet in the book, many of which worked temporarily, but nothing stuck. A couple of years ago, he found himself working out an hour a day but still lingered at around 300 pounds. He applied a new mentality—taking it one day at a time—and signed up for the free iPhone app Lose It!, basically a calorie counter and nutritionist on the go. Two years later and 65 pounds lighter, it still works. Here’s his story:
First off, I found out I was eating 3,500 calories a day…a good 1,200 more than what I should be eating. Because I wear a heart-rate monitor, which fairly accurately details how many calories you burn, I can enter [that information] into the app. I can do some things to affect the outcome of my daily intake. I’m like a Rain Man entering this into my phone.
I can’t say it’s been easy, but I haven’t suffered. It’s helped me retrain the way I think about food. I’m trying to change my eating habits. Currently I’m working on trying to eat better food. In the beginning it was just trying to get the calories under control. I would buy frozen dinners, and just knowing that it’s easy for me to keep track of what was the worst meal of the day for me, keep [my calorie intake] in a reasonable range. Then I worked backwards trying to find things that were filling and a somewhat reasonable amount of calories. I always rationalized eating whatever I wanted after I worked out, but finally I attached numerical value to this stuff, and that’s really what opened my eyes and made the difference.
[As for keeping track,] I used to whip out [my phone] whenever I ate something and the eyes would roll with my family whenever we were at dinner. Now I’m pretty good at remembering and recording my meals two or three times a day.
I feel good. I went out last winter to the White Sox fantasy camp, something I probably couldn’t have done a few years ago. I started being more active, playing tennis and riding my bike. Generally speaking, it has improved the quality of my life.
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Post by rob_london on Mar 16, 2013 13:32:28 GMT -8
"There's iPhone. Then there's everything else" Apple have updated the iPhone web page and launched an email campaign. They are definitely on the offensive v Samsung. www.apple.com/iphone/why-iphone/"Great battery life. Without a great big battery". "...and while other smartphones simply tout large amounts of megapixels, taking great pictures is about so much more." "..and the App Store is home to over 800,000 apps — all reviewed by Apple to guard against malware. Other mobile platforms have a myriad of fragmented store options, resulting in availability issues, developer frustration, and security risks." The best counter-punch: "Anyone can make a larger smartphone display. But if you go large for large’s sake, you end up with a phone that feels oversize, awkward, and hard to use. "I don't think Apple will be launching a large format phone anytime soon.
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Post by qualitywte on Mar 16, 2013 14:08:28 GMT -8
I believe one reason the bigger phone has not come out, is because Apple is waiting for one component that will blow us away. It won't be the bigger screen, but rather some new feature. I think it will be an unique battery, unique wifi radio, unique camera, or finger print scanner. A bigger phone did come out, the iPhone5. I'm skeptical of both a fat iPhone and a cheap iPhone, but I do trust the company to make the correct decision. iPad Mini was the right decision. I'm starting to warm up to the possibility of a high quality plastic iPhone in multiple colors with new features (fingerprint ID?). Maybe only slightly lower cost ($149 subsidized to undercut SS Galaxy S4).
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Post by pauls on Mar 16, 2013 14:41:40 GMT -8
"I'm starting to warm up to the possibility of a high quality plastic iPhone in multiple colors with new features (fingerprint ID?)."
+1. Fully functioning, less expensive, good but not best camera, appealing to the young (Colors!)-- I believe they would sell very well to a subset of current Android users, and of course in general. And help counter the perception that Samsung is somehow 'winning'. It might help the stock's disconnect with fundamentals, and certainly add unit growth which seems perhaps more important to the market than margins and profit.
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Post by pauls on Mar 16, 2013 14:55:46 GMT -8
"Anyone can make a larger smartphone display. But if you go large for largeÂ’s sake, you end up with a phone that feels oversize, awkward, and hard to use."
I dunno. It sounds like oft-quote SJ statements regarding a 7" iPad, no? Maybe the key is "large for large sake"....doesn't mean there aren't other reasons to build one. On a recent trip to Vegas I was surprised at how many folks I saw sporting jumbo phones, and using them heavily. I was also surprised at how many folks were taking photos and video with iPads, and using them in general while out and about or at the tables (gaming and restaurant), carting them about like you used to see people lugging cameras.
For content consumption, and most things beside basic phone/text use, there is a great argument for a larger screen. I personally would stick to 4", I think....
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Post by qualitywte on Mar 16, 2013 15:16:02 GMT -8
"Anyone can make a larger smartphone display. But if you go large for largeÂ’s sake, you end up with a phone that feels oversize, awkward, and hard to use." I dunno. It sounds like oft-quote SJ statements regarding a 7" iPad, no? Maybe the key is "large for large sake"....doesn't mean there aren't other reasons to build one. On a recent trip to Vegas I was surprised at how many folks I saw sporting jumbo phones, and using them heavily. I was also surprised at how many folks were taking photos and video with iPads, and using them in general while out and about or at the tables (gaming and restaurant), carting them about like you used to see people lugging cameras. For content consumption, and most things beside basic phone/text use, there is a great argument for a larger screen. I personally would stick to 4", I think.... And don't forget the developers, if you screw around with the size too much, you create a burden on developers.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Mar 16, 2013 16:11:11 GMT -8
Apple not only transitioned to iPhone 5, the also transitioned developers to dual 4:3 and 16:9 ratios. This is the third such developer transition. They did this once going from iPhone to iPad and again from non-retina to retina. A native "plus (+)" app now covers 3GS, 4, 5, iPad 2/mini and iPad 3/4 resolutions (lost track of where iTouch comes in but it falls in behind the flagships.) Now, I absolutely love my iPad mini. Gave away the iPad 3 to my mother-in-law and will preorder a top end iPad mini (retina) when announced. But every time I try to jam this mini into a jacket or the back pocket of my jeans I want it to be just 1cm slimmer. There is nothing keeping Apple from going 16:9 on the mini now. Developers have had a year in dual 4:3 & 16:9 world. A 16:9 iPad Mini retina with cell option may be why all the quiet from the orchard. I feel the gates are about to open. Apple all time high may not be far behind. I agree the iPad mini is a wonderful iPad - the size and weight reduction compared to the iPad 3/4 is amazing and I think the retina iPad mini will be the clear cut best iPad when its released. However having used the windows surface, my opinion is that the 16:9 screen form factor on a tablet is USELESS, and I hope apple never uses it on an iPad. The screen is far too tall in portrait mode, and far too short in landscape mode (an onscreen keyboard takes up 2/3 of the screen when in use).
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Post by fas550 on Mar 16, 2013 16:52:21 GMT -8
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