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Post by cbingle on Mar 17, 2013 16:38:24 GMT -8
Not a dude...but OK.
Point is we are going much higher...Just look at the big picture of who the competition is.
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Post by cbingle on Mar 17, 2013 16:42:15 GMT -8
Going on record here. AAPL closes above $445 on Monday
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Mar 17, 2013 16:45:40 GMT -8
Respect the macro, and then see how it plays out intraday, I say. Best of luck to all. Closing over $445 makes things potentially very interesting, and in a good way.
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Post by mace on Mar 17, 2013 16:49:55 GMT -8
Are you guys talking about CRUS?
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Post by sponge on Mar 17, 2013 16:50:01 GMT -8
Going on record here. AAPL closes above $445 on Monday Sorry but I don't see that. By the way I started a retail observation thread. Encourage folks to update with their own observations and recon from all retail venues.
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Post by qualitywte on Mar 17, 2013 16:50:43 GMT -8
Going on record here. AAPL closes above $445 on Monday Well, Im certainly no expert on anything, but Ive been watching things for a long time, and have gotten burned lately, but I happen to agree with you. Doesn't hurt to have an opinion does it?
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Post by cbingle on Mar 17, 2013 16:55:55 GMT -8
I guess I am not an intraday guy. But that is OK. The Samsung "unpacking" Thursday night was their first effort in the limelight, and it was a total MISS fail. From a media stand point, the guy on top gets attacked. Samsung tried, but failed MISERABLY.
AAPL is now the underdog without changing anything. Give me a rational PE of 15 with any positive announcement, China Mobil, $100b buyback, etc, and you have a $650 stock with upside.
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Post by lovemyipad on Mar 17, 2013 17:19:36 GMT -8
lovemyipad: I can see you have reached a negative stress point. I did also a few weeks back. No, I'm not anymore -- really! I did a few weeks back when folks around here were being ugly to each other, but I'm not stressing over that anymore. As for my portfolio, meh, could have been worse, luckily I have a long enough timeframe for the accounts (IRA) and sufficient cash (though I'd always like more), so I'll live. At this point, I'm well-positioned for downside (as well as upside), so my market commentary is pretty objective, free of personal biases. I don't *think* I'm "talking my book" since I'm positioned to benefit (at least a bit) no matter what happens...
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Post by ammaroo1 on Mar 17, 2013 17:19:50 GMT -8
Re: Cyprus
There's going to be a lot of asset outflow from the eu and a selloff in bonds. That money has to go somewhere. My guess is gold and quality large cap US stocks. Not necessarily bad for AAPL. Make your own determination.
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Post by mace on Mar 17, 2013 17:25:34 GMT -8
Here's the monthly chart of the S&P500 since mid-1995: You can see why *some* money might be leaving the market at this level. So is S&P 500 pattern since Jul 1999, ABC or ABCDE? If former, a new ATH later in the year. If latter, new low lower than 600 later in the year.
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Post by lovemyipad on Mar 17, 2013 17:26:47 GMT -8
Point is we are going much higher...Just look at the big picture of who the competition is. Sure, but just be prepared in case we go lower first. Like, if we see 400 before we see 500, hypothetically speaking. If that works for you, then great. No worries. I have no doubt we'll see 1000 one day. But the path from here to there...IMHO, that won't be anything easily predictable.
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Post by fas550 on Mar 17, 2013 17:32:25 GMT -8
I think most can agree the sentiment on Apple recently has been better recently and Samsung's announcement probably only helped. How the macro affects it is TBD.
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Post by lovemyipad on Mar 17, 2013 17:37:14 GMT -8
Well I guess we are headed to 800 on the S&P :-). Nah, just a healthy retrace, until proven otherwise. But you can see why *some* might think "well just in case....um, better take some profits..." IMHO, this is a *lovely* time for bear put spreads on your least favorite stocks. Make a short list Short List -- heehee!
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Mar 17, 2013 17:40:04 GMT -8
BOUT TIME AMZN ahem here's hoping for a healthy revaluation of the stock can you tell I have puts on AMZN
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Post by lovemyipad on Mar 17, 2013 17:41:21 GMT -8
So is S&P 500 pattern since Jul 1999, ABC or ABCDE? If former, a new ATH later in the year. If latter, new low lower than 600 later in the year. I vote ABC.
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Post by Mav on Mar 17, 2013 17:42:59 GMT -8
If macro is stable, I think we do see S&P ATHs, just a total WAG. But 1580 is an also ATH.
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Post by Mav on Mar 17, 2013 17:45:21 GMT -8
For the benefit of those not so familiar with Mace the Gadfly/Troll , it IS entirely possible that the SPX trades both lower than 1576 AND higher than 600 the entire year. ;D
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Post by cbingle on Mar 17, 2013 17:54:27 GMT -8
I have a 1-2 year timeframe. My thoughts are if AAPL can increase 15% or more per year, I am in. I have looked at other alternatives, including mREITs, consumer staples, pharma, etc. My belief is AAPL has a better chance of $650 n 2 years than other options.
The media has made AAPL look like a JCP. The question is, who do you think AAPL is? Even better, who does Aaple think AAPL is? It is very apparent who Tim Cook etal thinks AAPL is. And the media just realized that on Friday.
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Post by sponge on Mar 17, 2013 17:54:36 GMT -8
I guess I am not an intraday guy. But that is OK. The Samsung "unpacking" Thursday night was their first effort in the limelight, and it was a total MISS fail. From a media stand point, the guy on top gets attacked. Samsung tried, but failed MISERABLY. AAPL is now the underdog without changing anything. Give me a rational PE of 15 with any positive announcement, China Mobil, $100b buyback, etc, and you have a $650 stock with upside. I am not sure Samsung failed with the S4. It started last year when their flagship S3 could not beat the 4S even with 2 for 1 specials. The S4 is a modest attempt to remain in third place here in the US. They may be in second at this time but no one knows for sure. In regards to a 15 p/e, all aapl needs is new updates in all their products by end of the year. The updates will keep their 20% eps growth and as margins improves the retail folks will come back in. Value players are still waiting for apple to show consistent dividend growth and for the stock to be less volitale. Anyone who bought for the dividend at $700 would have to wait 15 years to get their money back in dividends. Value players buy stock that are flat. Apple if far from being flat and it is still a growth stock. I think the dividend was issued simply because they have extra money and TC is a nice guy. It has nothing to do with propping up the stock.
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Post by Mav on Mar 17, 2013 17:58:34 GMT -8
Sponge, I'd like to know what you mean by "nice guy".
S4 will be a strong competitor. It's not coming out of the gate with that "specialness" that the S3 did, but it should still sell quite well. But Apple's not out of the game, and the S4 being a smash hit wouldn't have changed that anyways.
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Post by Mav on Mar 17, 2013 18:03:28 GMT -8
US Futures down 125 or so basis points so far except for the Dow (down about 90 basis points). This is different.
If equities start the day red but van end the day green tomorrow, that may well be a short-term bullish sign. If not...
A touch nervous about AAPL (most risk concentrated in modest amount of shares). Getting excited about shorting opportunities elsewhere. ;D
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Post by Mav on Mar 17, 2013 18:13:03 GMT -8
A video that shows Apple means business. With iPad. With key busineess partners like a $10B+ pharma company based in Japan. And that's just one of the apparently new videos in Apple's refreshed iPad page (or about a month ago, still pretty new) www.apple.com/ipad/business/profiles/daiichi-sankyo/#video-daiichi-sankyo'Course if motorcycles are more your thing, there's Ducati! In Italian! Actually, there's a wealth of profiles here aside from the new ones this year. Worth a look!
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Post by prazan on Mar 17, 2013 18:22:03 GMT -8
Re: Cyprus There's going to be a lot of asset outflow from the eu and a selloff in bonds. That money has to go somewhere. My guess is gold and quality large cap US stocks. Not necessarily bad for AAPL. Make your own determination. By the way, great post on product marketing strategy at the start of the weekend, on page one of this thread. You managed to make a strong case for waiting on the large format iPhone yet also to make it sound inevitable. I'm large format phone agnostic, except to note that current versions are ugly. Am I the only one old enough to remember boomboxes? If Apple makes a large format phone, I trust it will be beautiful.
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Post by sponge on Mar 17, 2013 18:22:39 GMT -8
Sponge, I'd like to know what you mean by "nice guy". S4 will be a strong competitor. It's not coming out of the gate with that "specialness" that the S3 did, but it should still sell quite well. But Apple's not out of the game, and the S4 being a smash hit wouldn't have changed that anyways. Mav After reading the SJ biography I understood better how SJ operated but also go to know TC in the process. AFter SJ passed away TC started to change the culture a little at Apple. That culture revolved around being kinder and nicer to two groups. The employees and the stockholders. However employees are both. TC means what he says. If you watch his body language and the words he uses, you can tell he is a very nice man who cares a great deal about mankind. As CEO his number one priority is Apple. Apple is the employees. The dividend and buyback will help the employees more then anyone else. This is his way of rewarding them for the hard work they do. Every time he talks he goes out of his way of praising everyone who works there. I know many are very upset even at Apple with the stock price, but TC is determined not to let that change their game plan. He reminds everyone to be patient. Everyone at Apple knows the company has a great future and a stock correction in 6 months will not change that future.
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Post by cbingle on Mar 17, 2013 18:24:38 GMT -8
I think AAPL is dis - engaged from averages. It fell 35+% for FUD reasons when markets went higher. With those removed, I truly believe AAPL moves up, especially if money has a reason to move out of other equities.
Trust in their products. Compare to competitor. They do not have to have 100% market share. Look at your surroundings. Read the "quality" articles.
STMF
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Post by prazan on Mar 17, 2013 18:26:51 GMT -8
Before folks get too short happy, I suspect many investors will be buying the first meaningful pullback. The rise in SPY has been too sustained and too powerful to be blunted by a single event, unless that event is a black swan. So you have one sentiment in folks taking profits, but another sentiment in folks buying the pullback. So if you do short, don't take a long bathroom break. Stay nimble.
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Post by Mav on Mar 17, 2013 18:27:25 GMT -8
Good answer, sponge.
Dividends and share price support are for more than just shareholders. As Apple attempts to settle into IBM-type longevity, things like this will matter more and more. Which is why for all his faults (not too many I can count at this point), I've thought for a while that Tim Cook may be the single best person to lead Apple 3.0. Period.
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Post by Mav on Mar 17, 2013 18:28:31 GMT -8
Good advice, prazan.
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Post by sponge on Mar 17, 2013 18:32:55 GMT -8
A video that shows Apple means business. With iPad. With key busineess partners like a $10B+ pharma company based in Japan. And that's just one of the apparently new videos in Apple's refreshed iPad page (or about a month ago, still pretty new) www.apple.com/ipad/business/profiles/daiichi-sankyo/#video-daiichi-sankyo'Course if motorcycles are more your thing, there's Ducati! In Italian! Mav I watched the video. There are a total of 32 videos about Apple working with different industries. I looked at Samsung and there is not one video.
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Post by Mav on Mar 17, 2013 18:34:26 GMT -8
You can fast follow like Samsung, but you might miss something here and there. Many pundits forget, Apple's been specifically building for Enterprise support since iPhone OS 2.0 (remember when?).
And when you take the time to not use a platform that tries to be more secure, more curated, and _isn't_ based on Java... ;D
These business profile videos are awesome. When you're feeling down on AAPL, these may be useful tonic.
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