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Post by lovemyipad on Mar 18, 2013 13:01:39 GMT -8
RIGHT at the Wheeee Line... AAPL 4H Chart:
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mark
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Post by mark on Mar 18, 2013 13:11:08 GMT -8
Mark, I think, if I understand it correctly, the bigger issue (I believe) is the tax imposed on those below the 100k Euro because those folks thought that the amount was insured (ala FDIC). Anything above that is fair game I guess. Sadly -and admittedly very selfishly, I mostly care about it due to how it may affect AAPL. I think they will reduce (or even eliminate) the tax under 100k, most likely to something below one year of interest earned. And 100k-500k will pay more, and 500+k will pay the most. Or they may scrap the whole thing and expect EU/Germany to simply roll over and fund them anyway.
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Post by seabiscuit on Mar 18, 2013 13:13:11 GMT -8
I agree about the 1984 ad - that might have been the greatest ad ever. I would like to see the ad run again about a great totally new market disrupting product.
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Post by mace on Mar 18, 2013 13:25:27 GMT -8
... A big buyback with borrowed funds is free money. The only way it makes no sense is if the stock is now overvalued or if earnings are about to plummet. Dividends are horrible. They are taxed, and will soon be taxed more. Moreover, the investor has no control over the timing of the distrubution, making tax planning less effective. You've not read my previous views and the hidden meaning that how do you know a stock is undervalued? Valuation involved guessing future interest rate and free cash flow. In high tech industry, one never know when a big disruptor would come along or a sudden change in wind direction e.g. craze for phablets started only last year. Valuing a consumer staples or utilities business is a lot easier. Those businesses can even be run by idiots and till make good monies. So the proposal is only theoretically sound. Dividends are horrible to investors but our government needs tax monies. Government gets nothing from share buyback. So a balance of dividends and share buy back is win-win. Yup, I'm not looking from an investor's POV only.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 18, 2013 13:34:19 GMT -8
Oh my god - I just heard Melissa Lee say something positive on AAPL - has hell frozen over???
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Mar 18, 2013 13:34:27 GMT -8
Because I still don't see Apple as a traditional dividend stock, I still view dividends as an inferior approach to promoting shareholder value from the corporation's standpoint, particularly given the shareholder taxation deal. I would've preferred Apple focused on buybacks first, really. But hey, Apple's got the dough, and give the people what they want I guess. If dividends are a necessary requirement for price support in the real world, as it seems to be, so be it. As a (very small) shareholder I won't complain too much. (Given where AAPL is now though, the "timing" to work out an expanded buyback program couldn't be better if the board decides to seize the opportunity. )
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mark
fire starter
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Post by mark on Mar 18, 2013 13:57:54 GMT -8
... A big buyback with borrowed funds is free money. The only way it makes no sense is if the stock is now overvalued or if earnings are about to plummet. Dividends are horrible. They are taxed, and will soon be taxed more. Moreover, the investor has no control over the timing of the distrubution, making tax planning less effective. You've not read my previous views and the hidden meaning that how do you know a stock is undervalued? Valuation involved guessing future interest rate and free cash flow. In high tech industry, one never know when a big disruptor would come along or a sudden change in wind direction e.g. craze for phablets started only last year. Valuing a consumer staples or utilities business is a lot easier. Those businesses can even be run by idiots and till make good monies. So the proposal is only theoretically sound. Dividends are horrible to investors but our government needs tax monies. Government gets nothing from share buyback. So a balance of dividends and share buy back is win-win. Yup, I'm not looking from an investor's POV only. If someone sells shares in a stock buyback, and if they have accrued capital gains, the capital gains tax comes due that year. So this statement isn't correct.
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Post by lance on Mar 18, 2013 14:16:52 GMT -8
appleinsider.com/articles/13/03/14/apple-samsung-marketing-hype-viewed-as-moving-in-opposite-directionsThis is an article that discusses my concerns with apples marketing. They aren't being aggressive and are marketing on the assumption the products, services and brand will sell itself. I think they need to be more innovative and creative in their marketing. The reason apple got to where it is because apple promoted its products to be cool and different like with the original think different ads, iPod ads, Mac pc ads or 1984 ad. People may disagree but apple is less creative right now in comparison to Samsung, red bull, under armour, Victoria secret to name a few.
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Post by phoebear611 on Mar 18, 2013 14:19:04 GMT -8
Mark, I think, if I understand it correctly, the bigger issue (I believe) is the tax imposed on those below the 100k Euro because those folks thought that the amount was insured (ala FDIC). Anything above that is fair game I guess. Sadly -and admittedly very selfishly, I mostly care about it due to how it may affect AAPL. I think they will reduce (or even eliminate) the tax under 100k, most likely to something below one year of interest earned. And 100k-500k will pay more, and 500+k will pay the most. Or they may scrap the whole thing and expect EU/Germany to simply roll over and fund them anyway. Yep - you are correct - it was just reported that the senior debt holders will feel the pain and they will try to look to other places before hitting the people below the 100K mark. (senior debt holders only amounts to $400 mln - not much but a start).
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Post by Deleted on Mar 18, 2013 14:51:57 GMT -8
I think I can hear the EOs thinking: "hm, my GOOG/AMZN has been downtrending 5% over the last two weeks. Time to rotate back into AAPL!" I think we may be in one of those perfect storms that worked against AAPL back in September/October/November, only this time is working in favor of AAPL. The storms? a/ The unwinding of hedge fund GOOG/AAPL plays. b/ S4 launch. c/ Flood of cash from Cypriot depositors (look at US$ action today vs other currencies). These didn't happen all at the same time, but close enough to each other to build on the earlier event. I had been thinking that the current run was an early earnings play but the institutions. I now believe that hasn't occurred yet, but will at its usual time (first week after end of quarter). Then, assuming a good earnings report with strong June quarter guidance, we could be in for an extended ride upward.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 18, 2013 14:57:14 GMT -8
appleinsider.com/articles/13/03/14/apple-samsung-marketing-hype-viewed-as-moving-in-opposite-directionsThis is an article that discusses my concerns with apples marketing. They aren't being aggressive and are marketing on the assumption the products, services and brand will sell itself. I think they need to be more innovative and creative in their marketing. The reason apple got to where it is because apple promoted its products to be cool and different like with the original think different ads, iPod ads, Mac pc ads or 1984 ad. People may disagree but apple is less creative right now in comparison to Samsung, red bull, under armour, Victoria secret to name a few. I would love to see an ad with an iPhone 5 user and a Samsung Galaxy user trying to put their phones in their pockets. The most obvious disadvantage of large 5" android phones is that they are simply not as portable as the iPhone - and focusing on the iPhones comparatively slim and pocketable design in this regard makes much more sense to me than focusing on how far your thumb can reach across a screen. Bring back Justin Long and John hodgeman and have them in new roles as iPhone owner vs Android phone owner. The first Ad can be called "The murse" in relation to the Man-Purse that the android phone owner has to carry with him everywhere to hold his phone, his phone stylus, extra phone batteries, video out cables etc.
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Post by phoebear611 on Mar 18, 2013 15:02:59 GMT -8
I may not have heard it correctly but the majority of Cypriot depositors were wealthy Russians with mafioso ties. Cyprus has been known as the perfect money laundering place. I doubt any of that money is coming to AAPL. That being said, I think this will prompt discussion for wealthy individuals with money abroad who will now question the safety of their money. This could bring money to the US where there is a much greater comfort for the rule of law. In that event, money could certainly flow to US equities and to AAPL. I would like to ask the group for their perspectives on a corporation holding money outside the US. Is there any concern about the safety of that money? Would any country hold a percentage of that money back if they needed it desperately enough?
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Post by mace on Mar 18, 2013 15:05:28 GMT -8
... assuming a good earnings report with strong June quarter guidance, we could be in for an extended ride upward. Deja vu? This time you might want to bank winnings from aggressive option trades to my account regularly.
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Post by mace on Mar 18, 2013 15:23:20 GMT -8
I would like to ask the group for their perspectives on a corporation holding money outside the US. Is there any concern about the safety of that money? Would any country hold a percentage of that money back if they needed it desperately enough? Safe nations are Switzerland and Singapore. Very low corporate tax, zero capital gain tax and politically stable. May be Sponge (aka omacvi) should organize a trip to Singapore if AAPL reclaims $700. Try their casino and Pangaea.
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Post by sponge on Mar 18, 2013 15:51:36 GMT -8
I would like to ask the group for their perspectives on a corporation holding money outside the US. Is there any concern about the safety of that money? Would any country hold a percentage of that money back if they needed it desperately enough? Safe nations are Switzerland and Singapore. Very low corporate tax, zero capital gain tax and politically stable. May be Sponge (aka omacvi) should organize a trip to Singapore if AAPL reclaims $700. Try their casino and Pangaea. I am not organizing anything until we hit $1000. So look out for an announcement in the second half of 2015.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 18, 2013 16:13:33 GMT -8
You've not read my previous views and the hidden meaning that how do you know a stock is undervalued? Valuation involved guessing future interest rate and free cash flow. In high tech industry, one never know when a big disruptor would come along or a sudden change in wind direction e.g. craze for phablets started only last year. Valuing a consumer staples or utilities business is a lot easier. Those businesses can even be run by idiots and till make good monies. So the proposal is only theoretically sound. Dividends are horrible to investors but our government needs tax monies. Government gets nothing from share buyback. So a balance of dividends and share buy back is win-win. Yup, I'm not looking from an investor's POV only. If someone sells shares in a stock buyback, and if they have accrued capital gains, the capital gains tax comes due that year. So this statement isn't correct. Mace would have been MORE correct if he had said the government doesn't get as MUCH from a share buyback, as they do from a dividend distribution. Under the new tax laws, investor capital gains on shares sold is far less than half the ordinary income tax on dividends. Before you argue that capital gains would be much higher per share of AAPL, than the dividend paid, you must also consider this: The cap gains will vary with a bias to not much (the longer an investor has held [lower basis] the less likely they will be to sell). While a dividend is paid to all shareholders, without exception. Math: A/ 47,000,000 shares bought back with an average $150 gain per share, taxed at the lower capital gains rate (vs ordinary income) = ~$1.8 Billion in federal tax revenue. If you want to show ordinary income (held for less than a year) tax revenue you have to show average gain below $100 per share. So yes, you get a higher tax rate, but you also get lower gain per share. B/ 947,000,000 shares yielding ~$15 dividend taxed at the new dividend rate (55%) generates ~$7.3 Billion in federal tax revenue.. It isn't management's job to limit an investor's tax consequence, but clearly from an investor's viewpoint a buyback is much more profitable .
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icam
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Post by icam on Mar 18, 2013 16:13:59 GMT -8
I may not have heard it correctly but the majority of Cypriot depositors were wealthy Russians with mafioso ties. Cyprus has been known as the perfect money laundering place. I doubt any of that money is coming to AAPL. That being said, I think this will prompt discussion for wealthy individuals with money abroad who will now question the safety of their money. This could bring money to the US where there is a much greater comfort for the rule of law. In that event, money could certainly flow to US equities and to AAPL. I would like to ask the group for their perspectives on a corporation holding money outside the US. Is there any concern about the safety of that money? Would any country hold a percentage of that money back if they needed it desperately enough? Phoebs - I'm not wealthy and don't have money abroad, so I don't know anything on the topic. But if I was, or did, I'd have to ask the question, am I better off paying 10% to a foreign country, or repatriating and paying anywhere from 20% to 50% tax to the U.S. Gov't and my state government. Might still be better off leaving it abroad.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Mar 18, 2013 16:16:40 GMT -8
What is the new tax rate on corporate dividends?
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Post by Deleted on Mar 18, 2013 16:17:08 GMT -8
I would like to ask the group for their perspectives on a corporation holding money outside the US. Is there any concern about the safety of that money? Would any country hold a percentage of that money back if they needed it desperately enough? Safe nations are Switzerland and Singapore. Very low corporate tax, zero capital gain tax and politically stable. May be Sponge (aka omacvi) should organize a trip to Singapore if AAPL reclaims $700. Try their casino and Pangaea. Be careful with that strategy, as those countries will not protect your identity, if they get an official request from our government about your accounts.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 18, 2013 16:23:42 GMT -8
What is the new tax rate on corporate dividends? 55% This is what we get when we elect a government that spends and spends, then expects those that work hard, invest and save to pay for what those that don't work, invest and save receive.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 18, 2013 16:27:44 GMT -8
According to MACD-h weekly, maybe 470ish at present rate? Thanks Lovey, whoops, I mean Mav. My own crude metric is showing the same thing by Friday.
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Post by mace on Mar 18, 2013 16:39:47 GMT -8
What is the new tax rate on corporate dividends? 55% This is what we get when we elect a government that spends and spends, then expects those that work hard, invest and save to pay for what those that don't work, invest and save receive. Thought is 15%-20% for qualified dividends. You include double taxation i.e. corporate tax rate.
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Post by Odd-Lot Richard on Mar 18, 2013 17:22:51 GMT -8
+3.8% surtax for high-earners.
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Post by lovemyipad on Mar 18, 2013 18:40:17 GMT -8
iPad - What to look for to determine when the shorts are getting their brains squeezed out? And, will this be an indicator of a temporary top before more up? Thx. ROFL!! If you watch the smaller timeframes on the intraday charts, you can see the tall candles (may or may not have accompanying volume) and practically hear the pop-pop-popping (like popcorn) of stops parked just above key resistance levels. After the stops stop popping, we need to see real buyers (versus forced buyers) willing to pay higher prices to keep the upside going. Watch MACD-h to gauge momentum and spot divergences with price. That will give you a sense of the potential turning/tipping points. Higher highs on lower momentum --> toppy. Any Qs, see me in Chart Talk.
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Post by lovemyipad on Mar 18, 2013 18:49:05 GMT -8
What are folks calculating as the trendline we're trying to break? My charts show $455, but they aren't definitive, showing different numbers based on the time period: weekly, daily, etc. On the weekly chart, we look poised for a crossover on the MACD 12 26. We crossed over to the negative late in September of 2112. I like at least three points on a trendline, and the more points, the stronger the line. So I have favored the line connecting those candle tops at 652-ish and 595-ish. That line also hits 555. And, we're RIGHT at it.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Mar 18, 2013 18:49:51 GMT -8
Well, if smart money is buying - and I think there is some in play - then we do have real buyers in addition to shorts taking some heat. Though I wonder - what's short interest on AAPL right now anyway? www.nasdaq.com/symbol/aapl/short-interest#.UUfR7zcqh8ELooking...interesting. Are we in Kansas Pamplona yet? ;D
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Post by lovemyipad on Mar 18, 2013 18:50:39 GMT -8
I think we're over that trendline by a tiny bit right now. As far as weekly MACD-h, we'll keep tracking it. When it gets that negative it takes time to go positive again even amidst a good countertrend bounce like AAPL's had the past 7 or so trading days. Renaissance Dude!
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Mar 18, 2013 18:51:41 GMT -8
From a pure velocity standpoint, if you think of AAPL's ATH as a reference point (and I don't see why not), AAPL has just taken the first step out of the controlling downtrend.
If you're more like iPad (even though it's only a matter of a couple bucks' difference), you can treat that downtrend line I mentioned as another kind of early earning indicator. ;D
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Mar 18, 2013 18:53:09 GMT -8
I don't care if I'm Savant Basement Trader Dude (a different, highly refined breed of basement dweller, I would be quick to add), I needs me some ACTUAL WORKING TRADES! I've almost forgotten what a capital gain is!
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Post by lovemyipad on Mar 18, 2013 19:01:14 GMT -8
ROFL!!!
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