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Post by mace on Mar 21, 2013 10:19:31 GMT -8
Mace are you nuts.  VXAPL of around 40? Also, IV is heavily expiry-dependent and event-dependent. Don't know what message you want to convey in the last sentence. IV changes often, so? You force me to launch ToS to check IV, haven't launched for ages. Currently, IV (not VXAPL, I don't follow that) of calls does go as high as 67. IV of Jan 14 call is 28.88%. |
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Mar 21, 2013 10:21:59 GMT -8
But IV can only really be measured at the individual level. Need a benchmark please. Say, the typical at the money call 3 months out. Y'know?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Mar 21, 2013 10:22:41 GMT -8
Hey, CBOE iVolatility works too as a quick reference. |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 21, 2013 10:43:02 GMT -8
I don't want to get into spreads. Yes it will decrease my risk but limit my upside. My get rid of 2 contracts this summer if we make a run to 600. The IV on those is still low at 28.77. However it is still very volatile so I am not sure that matters. You don't want to limit your upside to only 1000%? That's a little greedy, don't you think...especially for 9 months. Spreads have a different type of risk though, as you have to wait until closer to expiration for your spreads to reach full value, whereas Sponges calls can be sold for potentially a much larger profit much further out from expiration. |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 21, 2013 11:11:51 GMT -8
So...was there a reason for the mid session price spike? Or was it just a big trade that went through?
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Post by appledoc on Mar 21, 2013 11:14:02 GMT -8
You should NEVER try to get full value for spreads. It's way too risky. Best example: just look at all of the Jan13 spreads that expired worthless.
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Post by seabiscuit on Mar 21, 2013 11:14:08 GMT -8
Don't understand those terms. STO - sell to open STC = sell to close BTO - buy to open BTC - buy to close |
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Post by sponge on Mar 21, 2013 11:16:25 GMT -8
Mace
Did we close below Max Pain for Monthly expiration in march? I thought that was last week and we needed to close above 450.
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Post by mace on Mar 21, 2013 11:19:45 GMT -8
Mace Did we close below Max Pain for Monthly expiration in march? I thought that was last week and we needed to close above 450. Thursday - max pain is $445 but believe is $440 on Friday. So AAPL did close above max pain  for the first time since decline from $705. |
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Mar 21, 2013 11:39:10 GMT -8
How's it looking this week?
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Post by Deleted on Mar 21, 2013 11:40:28 GMT -8
You should NEVER try to get full value for spreads. It's way too risky. Best example: just look at all of the Jan13 spreads that expired worthless. I was under the impression that the bulk of gains in spreads came closer to expiration, especially if considering LEAPs? For instance, currently the Jan 400/450 spread is trading at $28.00, while the Jan $400 call is trading at $76.00. |
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Post by mace on Mar 21, 2013 11:44:22 GMT -8
How's it looking this week? Max pain is $440  . Highest OI (calls) = $460  . Above $440 is bullish but would be difficult to cross above $460. |
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Post by sponge on Mar 21, 2013 11:53:03 GMT -8
Looks like they will try to keep us under 455 today. In my view a close above that would have been very bullish and gave us a chance to see 460 tomorrow. Thats too bad.
update
Now we have lost the whole upward gain from this morning. We are closing much weaker then expected. Not a good sign now for tomorrow. I think we needed to hold 455 at least.
Fortunately volume is very low
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Mar 21, 2013 12:02:15 GMT -8
Closed fine considering.
Short-term neutral. My calls do have some time and a hedge plan.
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Post by Big Al on Mar 21, 2013 12:06:49 GMT -8
How's it looking this week? Max pain is $440 . Highest OI (calls) = $460 . Above $440 is bullish but would be difficult to cross above $460. Max pain OI range is between $445 and $450. Let's see how this will change until tomorrow. |
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Post by appledoc on Mar 21, 2013 12:12:40 GMT -8
You should NEVER try to get full value for spreads. It's way too risky. Best example: just look at all of the Jan13 spreads that expired worthless. I was under the impression that the bulk of gains in spreads came closer to expiration, especially if considering LEAPs? For instance, currently the Jan 400/450 spread is trading at $28.00, while the Jan $400 call is trading at $76.00. You have to ask yourself how much you're looking to make. Yeah, spreads don't have the same quick upside that calls do. But you can still net 20%+ gains in a matter of days with spreads that expire months out. I've learned the hard way already that you don't get greedy with options. |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 21, 2013 12:12:51 GMT -8
Max pain is $440 . Highest OI (calls) = $460 . Above $440 is bullish but would be difficult to cross above $460. Max pain OI range is between $445 and $450. Let's see how this will change until tomorrow. Travis said on Twitter today that Apple will close above $450 tomorrow. |
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Mar 21, 2013 12:17:15 GMT -8
I say who knows.
Just following the levels until micro composure changes. AAPL is "basing" at the moment. 450 holding nicely.
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Post by lovemyipad on Mar 21, 2013 13:51:02 GMT -8
IMHO, find something(s) to short.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Mar 21, 2013 13:59:05 GMT -8
Oh, I'm looking. Even the usual love to hate stocks like AMZN and NFLX are looking interesting. |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 21, 2013 14:06:15 GMT -8
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Mar 21, 2013 14:32:58 GMT -8
For tomorrow, 450+ is good, 452+ is great, personally. _Not down_ on Friday is always nice, but I'm gonna try to keep expectations muted.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 21, 2013 14:48:26 GMT -8
Any close tomorrow above $443.67 will mean our 3rd consecutive weekly green candle!
I don't think that's happened since we hit $700 back in September....right?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Mar 21, 2013 14:59:11 GMT -8
Yyyyyyyyyyyyup.
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Post by mtjs on Mar 21, 2013 15:21:23 GMT -8
Rrrrrrraw  |
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Post by mace on Mar 21, 2013 15:42:59 GMT -8
I've learned the hard way already that you don't get greedy with options. For LEAPS, get greedy only when AAPL is in a Primary degree impulse. Higher or lower, not good. You got killed because of being greedy in a Primary degree corrective wave. Learn the right lesson  . |
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Post by mace on Mar 21, 2013 15:46:38 GMT -8
I want to comment more on options but ... very complicated ... what said are both correct and wrong depending on the price behavior of AAPL during the relevant timeframe. Options is many folds more complicated than shares.
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Post by artman1033 on Mar 21, 2013 15:55:47 GMT -8
The lovely KATE MacKenzie. What a fabulous website! HERE she is on twitter. She has been posting since April 2008. WHO KNEW? AN example of a brilliant post: Face it. Android is no longer in Google’s control, having been wrestled away by Amazon, Samsung, Chinese smartphone makers, and stomped on hard by Apple’s revenue and profit machine. How long before Google combines and perhaps shutters both Android OS and Chrome OS to stop the bleeding? |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 21, 2013 16:46:02 GMT -8
And now google is working on a smart watch.
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Post by Lstream on Mar 21, 2013 16:53:48 GMT -8
And now google is working on a smart watch. OK. What the hell. I am too. |
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. Highest OI (calls) = $460 
. Above $440 is bullish but would be difficult to cross above $460.
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