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Post by lovemyipad on Mar 28, 2013 12:48:54 GMT -8
The bar is open! And may I be the first to say: SOMEONE(S)* NEEDS TO BUY THIS F-ING STOCK!!! *besides us
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Mar 28, 2013 13:02:28 GMT -8
Oh yeah, about the S&P! Is there a "triple top zone" of danger we should all be hoping it clears, since it barely minted a new ATH today? SPY over 156.80 could drag this out longer... IMHO, that would be Bubble Territory. I'd have to cover my eyes. Really? 1% would make that much of a difference? Huh. Considered buying some SPY calls, but just didn't at the end of the day. I can't see any good setups among those stocks I track.
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Post by terps530 on Mar 28, 2013 14:48:39 GMT -8
zig nice post from the daily thread about the doji. that is some good insight and of course a better sign than a down month. We'll see where it goes fro here.
Also I just laughed (sadly) reading the end of this trading week (today) and then reading the end of last week. what a difference!
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Post by lovemyipad on Mar 28, 2013 15:11:56 GMT -8
The thing I don't understand about TA is that most of the TA's seemed to think the downtrend was not over during the rise from 419 to 470, it wasn't until last Friday when we closed over $460 that anyone got too excited that the worst was behind us. So what happens now that the TA's are "on the bullish side", Apple climbs to $470 and then proceeds to give back 20 points in the next few days. vitalogy, I wanted to reply to this post from yesterday... See the charts below. In the first chart (key trendlines), I didn't get excited until I saw a *decisive* break above the Mother of All Downtrendlines (green line) on Friday. The previous three days, to me, could have been "overthrow" or fluke. In the second chart, Monday's foray over the 61.8% marker is another "first" since this downtrend began. It's a definite change of composure, so IMHO, we *are* moving in the right direction. The question now becomes "Bullish Objective #2." The TAs will be watching to see whether or not that levels holds. (I liken this to Tug-of-War. Grabbing more than 61.8% of the rope tips the odds in that team's favor.) AAPL DAILY CHART: Key Trendlines AAPL DAILY CHART: Key Fibs
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Post by cbingle on Mar 28, 2013 15:53:36 GMT -8
lovemyipad: Very much appreciate your chart analysis. It does give me some comfort. Much more so than AAPL Mgmt.
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Post by phoebear611 on Mar 28, 2013 16:08:59 GMT -8
LMIP - great charts - makes it so crystal clear. The issue is that we would all prefer a "crystal ball" than a chart...but we'll have to live with using a chart. On another note - and nothing to get excited about but Business Insider has a link to a Japanese site called MacFan - which isn't very reliable but they publish a periodical which is now discussing the rumor that the next iPhone's date has been set to June 20th and will be put on the market in July. In addition, a low-priced iPhone will be put on the market in August. Hmmm....maybe they're the ones with the "crystal ball?!"
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Post by ongba on Mar 28, 2013 16:55:20 GMT -8
Macziggy,
thanks so much for your explanation of the green vs. red doji on the intraday thread today. You mention cheap insurance put spreads which cost about 0.50-1.00. How wide are your spreads and are they ATM or OTM? Also, what expiration period do you usually chose (weeklies or front month)? Thanks again!
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Post by Deleted on Mar 28, 2013 16:57:32 GMT -8
All I have to say is THANK GOD THE MARKET IS CLOSED TOMORROW. And I'm simply amazed that 9,000 net put contracts at $445 couldn't survive the tsunami.
I expect recovery next week, or should I say, I'm hopeful.
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Post by cbingle on Mar 28, 2013 17:15:11 GMT -8
Mercel: Agreed and very happy market is closed tomorrow. Will enjoy the 3 day break for simple pleasures.
I must say I have no idea what to expect in April. I am very concerned about anything coming out of managements mouth. It is truly amazing what has transpired in 6 months. Market value loss exceeding almost all TOTAL market caps of any company outside of Exxon. Think about that. REALLY think about that.
If you were CEO of a company that lost 200+ BILLION DOLLARS in value in 6 months, what would you do? REALLY, with all that power and money and opportunity, what would you do?
If it were me, I would play offense. Take control of your own destiny. Silence is weak.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Mar 28, 2013 17:22:24 GMT -8
Miscalculated my countertrend/downtrend lines. Those are both around the low 430s. iPad's downtrend line uses different points, so I'm guessing mid/high 430s for that.
440 zone is still very important though for technicals traders, because of the Fibs and the moving averages, like it or not (and I don't).
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Post by Deleted on Mar 28, 2013 17:54:41 GMT -8
Mercel: Agreed and very happy market is closed tomorrow. Will enjoy the 3 day break for simple pleasures. I must say I have no idea what to expect in April. I am very concerned about anything coming out of managements mouth. It is truly amazing what has transpired in 6 months. Market value loss exceeding almost all TOTAL market caps of any company outside of Exxon. Think about that. REALLY think about that. If you were CEO of a company that lost 200+ BILLION DOLLARS in value in 6 months, what would you do? REALLY, with all that power and money and opportunity, what would you do? If it were me, I would play offense. Take control of your own destiny. Silence is weak. Tim's somewhat cynical view of Wall Street was no doubt influenced by Steve's disdain for it. They're not playing ball by Wall Street rules, thinking (and expecting) that the game should be won or lost on points ($) instead. Sadly, it's not. I think the March quarter will be fine, perhaps more than fine. A stock repurchase is better than 50/50 but probably not as strong a number as we all want. Clearly, Tim is justified to buy at least $50B at these levels, which is his alibi for doing so (vs. financial engineering). We're so close to earnings, Tim's not going to succumb to the temptation to play Wall Street's game now. Want some optimism? We have catalysts between now and June/July that can send the shorts reaching for prozac. 1. A March EPS # that's over the top end of Apple's implied guidance range. 2. Higher dividend (earnings call) 3. Stock repurchase (earnings call) 4. New iPads 5. WWDC and iOS 7 and OSX 9 (Siri integration) 6. Apple TV update with an SDK for apps 7. June/July for the iPhone 5s 8. T-Mobile giving the June quarter an assist, along with a delayed HTC One X and S4. 9. Updates to MacBook Air, MacPro, and rMBP 10. Something else This dry patch has been extended in part because the product roadmap was barren. That's about to change very soon.
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Post by cbingle on Mar 28, 2013 18:10:36 GMT -8
Mercel, I hope you are right. I am staying fully invested because I see the same catalysts. However, I am lacking the same confidence that the share price reflects.
Apple is now just another company. I do not think Tim understands that.
April 23rd is a short leash day...for the long term expectations of this NEW company
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Post by Deleted on Mar 28, 2013 21:00:08 GMT -8
Apple is now just another company. I do not think Tim understands that. April 23rd is a short leash day...for the long term expectations of this NEW company I think Tim & I both missed the same memo......what's this "new company" gossip I'm hearing about?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Mar 28, 2013 21:22:57 GMT -8
Turns out 2013 is the _real_ transition year for Apple. Who knew? (Not me.)
Don't mistake AAPL being a disrespected stock (nothing new, but manifesting itself quite strongly these days) with Apple being just another company. So far it's share price over company prospects (this would be quite a place for Apple to suddenly "plateau", huh?). Given the Board election results, Apple easily has another year to reorganize itself, cleanse/remedy the Sins of the Forstall, and maybe positively surprise once or twice with a new hardware/software product.
And that's before the cash and/or share changes Apple should be implementing this year. Thing is, this matter of Apple remediating share price sentiment somehow might require patience from AAPL bulls for months, not weeks. We'll see.
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Post by Mav on Mar 29, 2013 0:15:08 GMT -8
Samsung prices the S4 starting at $250 in the US, and does that same "have a lower-performing Qualcomm SoC and LIKE IT, chumps!" all over again?
Huh?!? While I get why Samsung isn't pairing its own, dual-quad-core SoC with the S4/US version because of LTE issues...still. What kinda systems integrator are ya anyway? (/maybe-sarcasm)
And you have some nerve making Apple the cheaper smartphone on a subsidized basis.
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Post by appledoc on Mar 29, 2013 7:10:31 GMT -8
1. A March EPS # that's over the top end of Apple's implied guidance range. 2. Higher dividend (earnings call) 3. Stock repurchase (earnings call) 4. New iPads 5. WWDC and iOS 7 and OSX 9 (Siri integration) 6. Apple TV update with an SDK for apps 7. June/July for the iPhone 5s 8. T-Mobile giving the June quarter an assist, along with a delayed HTC One X and S4. 9. Updates to MacBook Air, MacPro, and rMBP 10. Something else Most of these aren't catalysts. The analyst estimates for earnings is already around the high end of guidance. Dividend and buyback are being counted on already, so it really needs to impress to swing sentiment. Everyone knows new iPads will come at some point this year, and probably not until the fall. The current generation hasn't even been out for 6 months. iOS and OSX updates are trivial. Apple TV is trivial. I can't see the 5S being released before August, but I guess it's possible. TMobile doesn't add all that much. And the Mac line only matters so much. Not trying to be a downer, just being realistic.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 29, 2013 7:51:07 GMT -8
1. A March EPS # that's over the top end of Apple's implied guidance range. 2. Higher dividend (earnings call) 3. Stock repurchase (earnings call) 4. New iPads 5. WWDC and iOS 7 and OSX 9 (Siri integration) 6. Apple TV update with an SDK for apps 7. June/July for the iPhone 5s 8. T-Mobile giving the June quarter an assist, along with a delayed HTC One X and S4. 9. Updates to MacBook Air, MacPro, and rMBP 10. Something else Most of these aren't catalysts. The analyst estimates for earnings is already around the high end of guidance. Dividend and buyback are being counted on already, so it really needs to impress to swing sentiment. Everyone knows new iPads will come at some point this year, and probably not until the fall. The current generation hasn't even been out for 6 months. iOS and OSX updates are trivial. Apple TV is trivial. I can't see the 5S being released before August, but I guess it's possible. TMobile doesn't add all that much. And the Mac line only matters so much. Not trying to be a downer, just being realistic. Too negative. I see, so you're in the camp that AAPL is priced to perfection now, having baked in what gets released over the next 4 months. Or, rather, you're waiting for a 3 handle on the stock before you pile back in and wait for Apple's transporter device. A longer history of AAPL stock price action repudiates your argument these aren't catalysts. My list contains everything that has ever moved the stock, save for Steve Jobs returning from a medical leave. Finally, Apple will likely do better than the high end of guidance, which is probably the most significant, apart from a very large repurchase (if it happens). An Apple TV with an SDK for apps is bigger than you realize, particularly if it's part of disrupting the games/console market.
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Post by appledoc on Mar 29, 2013 8:06:38 GMT -8
I'm being realistic Mercel. Sentiment is still negative IMO, so most of what you posted isn't going to help.
And when they report within their guided range, I hope once and for all that people here will start listening to the company. Apparently three non-blowouts in a row and a change in guidance delivery hasn't been enough.
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Post by rickag on Mar 29, 2013 8:15:10 GMT -8
Tim's somewhat cynical view of Wall Street was no doubt influenced by Steve's disdain for it. They're not playing ball by Wall Street rules, thinking (and expecting) that the game should be won or lost on points ($) instead. Sadly, it's not. I think the March quarter will be fine, perhaps more than fine. A stock repurchase is better than 50/50 but probably not as strong a number as we all want. Clearly, Tim is justified to buy at least $50B at these levels, which is his alibi for doing so (vs. financial engineering). We're so close to earnings, Tim's not going to succumb to the temptation to play Wall Street's game now. Want some optimism? We have catalysts between now and June/July that can send the shorts reaching for prozac. 1. A March EPS # that's over the top end of Apple's implied guidance range. 2. Higher dividend (earnings call) 3. Stock repurchase (earnings call) 4. New iPads 5. WWDC and iOS 7 and OSX 9 (Siri integration) 6. Apple TV update with an SDK for apps 7. June/July for the iPhone 5s 8. T-Mobile giving the June quarter an assist, along with a delayed HTC One X and S4. 9. Updates to MacBook Air, MacPro, and rMBP 10. Something else This dry patch has been extended in part because the product roadmap was barren. That's about to change very soon. NTT Docomo might added to your list, I would expect they are added as a carrier soon based on their CEO's/President's (?) comments about wanting the iPhone and loss of subscribers.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 29, 2013 9:50:19 GMT -8
Quotes from your own post. No. TC did NOT say "more cash than needed". He said (quoting your accurate paraphrase of TC's statement), "We have more cash than we need for operations"
There's a huge difference between the two. One is an accurate quote, the other is an inaccurate interpretation of what the quote meant.
False, you have no idea/concept of what Apple's future plans entail, and how much cash it will require to implement them. The only flawed logic being expressed here is that, in a knowledge vacuum, $140 Billion is enough.
It is the market's job to maximize value. The job of management is to operate the enterprise in the most efficient/profitable way possible.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 29, 2013 10:00:37 GMT -8
Also I just laughed (sadly) reading the end of this trading week (today) and then reading the end of last week. what a difference! Clear evidence that most, if not all, demands that management do this or that, emanate from emotional responses to how AAPL is performing, and not from business management expertise.
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Post by artman1033 on Mar 29, 2013 10:25:07 GMT -8
THIS just in: Lil Kim uses an iMac! THIS INFORMATION MAY NOT BE MARKET MOVING!
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Post by cbingle on Mar 29, 2013 10:34:49 GMT -8
I believe a share repurchase announcement of $50B over 3 years or $100B over 5 years would be the most positive use of cash. It would do two things:
1. Signal Apple believes AAPL is way undervalued. 2. Increase PPS more quickly.
If Apple has another plan, I would like to hear it.
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Post by terps530 on Mar 29, 2013 10:41:16 GMT -8
I believe that love is the answer
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Post by mace on Mar 29, 2013 10:51:47 GMT -8
The job of management is to operate the enterprise in the most efficient/profitable way possible. Is the job of the board to maximize shareholder value. TC is just a member . Those shouting loudest for Apple to do buyback are the traders. Temporary decline is of no concern to buy n hold.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 29, 2013 10:58:18 GMT -8
The job of management is to operate the enterprise in the most efficient/profitable way possible. Is the job of the board to maximize shareholder value. TC is just a member . Those shouting loudest for Apple to do buyback are the traders. Temporary decline is of no concern to buy n hold. I'm a trader, and I'm one of the loudest AGAINST Apple doing buybacks or dividends.
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Post by macziggy on Mar 29, 2013 11:12:37 GMT -8
Macziggy, thanks so much for your explanation of the green vs. red doji on the intraday thread today. You mention cheap insurance put spreads which cost about 0.50-1.00. How wide are your spreads and are they ATM or OTM? Also, what expiration period do you usually chose (weeklies or front month)? Thanks again! The AAPL call spreads that I hold are in July and January--July 500/525 and January 500/525 and 550/600. I still have some Aprils that are far OTM (that I bought before the collapse). When I use put spreads as a hedge for the call spreads, I buy put spreads in the next week out (weekly) just because they will increase much faster than my long call spreads will decrease. And, always OTM spreads. I never expect that they will gain in value since they are only for insurance if AAPL goes down significantly. Just like car insurance....I don't think I'll get any of it back. So, I try to keep it cheap. Right now, I'm holding just a few April1 430/425 that I bought for $0.70 at the close yesterday. Earlier in the day, I sold put spreads (April1 455/450) that I added when I saw the black candle on March 25 (bought $1.30 sold @ $3.92). I also had a put spread that I put on for insurance last week (Mar5 440/435) that cost $0.48. That went down to $0.03 during AAPL's ride to 469 and, of course, I thought I would just write it off. But, once AAPL came down to 440 yesterday, I sold that spread (which was expiring) for $0.32. So, I only lost $0.16 on them. I have done this only because LoveMyiPad las been so vigilant in making all of us understand the risks with this particular stock. And, that a small amount of insurance can blunt a large drop. For me, this situation is a good example of what can happen. How much insurance you decide to buy is completely up to you. I don't use any particular formula. Just something that I can live with. Also consider your transaction costs. This is just a strategy I have been using for several months. Please don't trade on this without doing it on paper first for several weeks.
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Post by lovemyipad on Mar 29, 2013 11:17:42 GMT -8
Those shouting loudest for Apple to do buyback are the traders. Temporary decline is of no concern to buy n hold. Nah, I can trade in both directions, no problem there. Traders just want movement -- don't care which way. Buy and hold satisfaction may depend on timeframe -- also opportunity cost if alternate investment vehicles look more appealing over the same time horizon. IMHO, a legit concern.
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Post by mace on Mar 29, 2013 11:21:41 GMT -8
Those shouting loudest for Apple to do buyback are the traders. Temporary decline is of no concern to buy n hold. Nah, I can trade in both directions, no problem there. Traders just want movement -- don't care which way. Buy and hold satisfaction may depend on timeframe -- also opportunity cost if alternate investment vehicles look more appealing over the same time horizon. IMHO, a legit concern. You're looking from a trader's perspective. As a buy n hold and a very bad trader, is comparing doing nothing (temporary paper loss) and doing trading (risk of losing all).
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Mar 29, 2013 11:46:37 GMT -8
If you want a stable, respected stock, AAPL has NEVER been it.
There's an opportunity cost analysis (which NFLX wins on various timeframes, to give a more extreme example) and there's betting on the best horse. To each their own approach when looking longer-term.
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