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Post by mace on Mar 29, 2013 11:51:04 GMT -8
If you want a stable, respected stock, AAPL has NEVER been it. There's an opportunity cost analysis (which NFLX wins on various timeframes, to give a more extreme example) and there's betting on the best horse. To each their own approach when looking longer-term. Are your sure? AAPL is better.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Mar 29, 2013 11:54:44 GMT -8
Various timeframes, Mace you troll. Like, that 60-190 nonsense while AAPL was tanking. Even if you look back one year from today, NFLX "outperforms". Perspective is required. For the very long-term shareholder, AAPL has been just fine. And traders _will_ tend to overlook things like dividends and buybacks, which will help AAPL's attractiveness as a long-term investment in the years ahead. And how could I forget to mention, the eternal risk/reward tradeoff. Opportunity cost analysis is never really all that simple, which is why FA will always be relevant for longer timeframes.
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Post by mace on Mar 29, 2013 11:56:41 GMT -8
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Post by mace on Mar 29, 2013 12:12:35 GMT -8
And traders _will_ tend to overlook things like dividends and buybacks, which will help AAPL's attractiveness as a long-term investment in the years ahead. Exactly, traders' perspective is totally different from buy n hold. Are you disagreeing even though I'm saying the same thing because you don't like the way I said it ? Obviously, an investor who had owned AAPL for 15+ years would feel differently from that who own it for only a few years. As the former and had since sold much AAPLs to diversify into real estate (is red hot, aka ATH, in my neighborhood even agents are cautioning buyers that RE might in bubble again ), going forward only care about good dividends as passive income so don't have to look for other dividend-paying greener pastures. Just to give you a perspective, the passive income from real estate (3 rentals) + AAPL is more than twice my last drawn salary before retiring.
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Post by rob_london on Mar 29, 2013 12:21:10 GMT -8
The rumored Apple-branded gaming joypad
Jim Dalrymple: "Nope"
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Post by rickag on Mar 29, 2013 12:22:52 GMT -8
And traders _will_ tend to overlook things like dividends and buybacks, which will help AAPL's attractiveness as a long-term investment in the years ahead. Exactly, traders' perspective is totally different from buy n hold. Are you disagreeing even though I'm saying the same thing because you don't like the way I said it ? Obviously, an investor who had owned AAPL for 15+ years would feel differently from that who own it for only a few years. As the former and had since sold much AAPLs to diversify into real estate (is red hot, aka ATH, in my neighborhood even agents are cautioning buyers that RE might in bubble again ), going forward only care about good dividends as passive income so don't have to look for other dividend-paying greener pastures. Just to give you a perspective, the passive income from real estate (3 rentals) + AAPL is more than twice my last drawn salary before retiring. If you don't mind my asking, Residential or Commercial rentals?
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Post by mace on Mar 29, 2013 12:38:25 GMT -8
If you don't mind my asking, Residential or Commercial rentals? Residential. Btw, one US and two overseas. Passive income doesn't include capital appreciation of 20% in US property and more than 100% for the overseas properties.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Mar 29, 2013 12:40:31 GMT -8
No, Mace, because you didn't mention the beneficial buyback (will be permanent to prevent share dilution except for maybe share splits, I'm quite sure) and dividend programs currently in place.
These programs matter more to buy-and-holders, which I still am in a modest capacity.
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Post by lovemyipad on Mar 29, 2013 13:43:56 GMT -8
macZiggy, GREAT post -- thanks for sharing! And again, well done and way to go!
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Post by rickag on Mar 29, 2013 13:48:07 GMT -8
If you don't mind my asking, Residential or Commercial rentals? Residential. Btw, one US and two overseas. Passive income doesn't include capital appreciation of 20% in US property and more than 100% for the overseas properties. Thank you. I've thought about buying and renting, as I can now take out IRA money without penalty, just pay taxes. With interest so low I could finance 1/2 the purchase of a couple of good homes for rental income. Could also be a hedge against inflation.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Mar 29, 2013 14:50:01 GMT -8
www.macrumors.com/2013/03/29/apple-has-no-plans-for-dedicated-ios-gaming-controller/I'd call this a litmus test for long-term/"experienced" Apple rumor watchers (no, it's not necessarily a "distinction", and I'm one of 'em! ). Not sure why Dalrymple felt compelled to "nope" this one when there's many other juicy rumors to confirm or debunk, but hey, the whole point of iPhone/iOS is to "transcend" buttons and let third-parties develop accessories. The days of Pippin are long past and ain't ever returning. I hope.
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Post by rickag on Mar 29, 2013 15:00:35 GMT -8
I miss mbeauch, JD and roni.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Mar 29, 2013 15:07:22 GMT -8
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Post by tuffett on Mar 29, 2013 15:09:09 GMT -8
Quotes from your own post. No. TC did NOT say "more cash than needed". He said (quoting your accurate paraphrase of TC's statement), "We have more cash than we need for operations" There's a huge difference between the two. One is an accurate quote, the other is an inaccurate interpretation of what the quote meant. False, you have no idea/concept of what Apple's future plans entail, and how much cash it will require to implement them. The only flawed logic being expressed here is that, in a knowledge vacuum, $140 Billion is enough. It is the market's job to maximize value. The job of management is to operate the enterprise in the most efficient/profitable way possible. Again, you are wrong. When he is being questioned about cash and what to do with it, and says he has more than needed to run the company, the sensible interpretation is "there is plenty of cash available to increase shareholder value via dividend/buyback etc." and not "there is plenty of cash for operations but not enough for our super secret long term plans." Get real. If the latter is what he really means then he has done a remarkably poor job of conveying it and will be in some serious hot water. You're honestly twisting those "frank" words around and accusing me of misinterpretation? Hilarious. I interpret "run the company" as accounting for long term plans in addition to regular operations. And with the amount of cash he's talking about and the context the questions are asked in, it makes perfect sense to interpret his words this way. I'll be here when Apple distributes a large amount of its cash and you admit you are wrong before moving on to your next theory to begin a new cycle.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 29, 2013 16:57:32 GMT -8
I believe a share repurchase announcement of $50B over 3 years or $100B over 5 years would be the most positive use of cash. It would do two things: 1. Signal Apple believes AAPL is way undervalued. 2. Increase PPS more quickly. If Apple has another plan, I would like to hear it. +1. This should be easy for Apple to do and am convinced it's the best antidote to AAPL's current valuation. I'm not opposed to a modest increase in the dividends, but a repurchase makes far more sense than sitting on it expecting it will somehow turn to gold. I'm sure Apple has already decided and is simply delaying the announcement. If they're still agonizing over this, then I'd be more inclined to dump my positions altogether over concerns management is indecisive.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 29, 2013 17:46:04 GMT -8
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Post by cbingle on Mar 29, 2013 17:46:35 GMT -8
Mercel: Exactly. What is so hard to figure this out. Apple is not interested in a $50B company buyout. Buyback your shares with cash flow and fund operations/expansion with cash on hand.
The fact it has taken them more than 12 months to figure this out is perplexing. Really, with the power AAPL has at it's disposal, but lack of use is "what is the word" .....fill in the blank....cause I can think of a few.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 29, 2013 17:54:57 GMT -8
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Post by Deleted on Mar 29, 2013 18:00:57 GMT -8
Mercel: Exactly. What is so hard to figure this out. Apple is not interested in a $50B company buyout. Buyback your shares with cash flow and fund operations/expansion with cash on hand. The fact it has taken them more than 12 months to figure this out is perplexing. Really, with the power AAPL has at it's disposal, but lack of use is "what is the word" .....fill in the blank....cause I can think of a few. I think Apple may be loading up on catalysts to time a steady stream of positive news to ensure current sentiment is shut down completely. I now expect cash plans to be announced on the earnings call. I'm confident in the EPS # and the cash news will be just more fuel for the fire.
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Post by cbingle on Mar 29, 2013 19:06:17 GMT -8
When can we expect a China Mobile announcement? And will AAPL have to give in based on current sentiment. After all, AAPL is not in a strong position based on current stock valuation. And Tim does not appear very strong, relative to Steve.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Mar 29, 2013 19:14:51 GMT -8
Perception is reflected in the stock price.
Reality is reflected in earnings, revenue, other financial/market indicators and their trends. Tim being seen as weak in the media or bloggers or Apple watchers like us doesn't really translate to people wanting to or not wanting to buy an iPad, for instance. Apple's products stand on their own and basically sell themselves based on their merits.
The reality is, Tim has made some missteps but did very well in 2011 and most of 2012. 2013, so far so actually pretty good but the CC involved sudden methodology shifts and tap-dancing that wasn't necessary and raised questions. Product pipeline logjam, Sins of the Forstall*** as I keep saying (with a spot of tremendous difficulty in being the first to optically laminate pretty damn big desktop displays - watch that space), give that until this year for more clues.
***For the record, I think Forstall was a giant net positive to Apple. If it's possible, I even think Apple could make it work keeping Forstall on as a consultant, not just for non-compete purposes or here's-a-glorified-compensation-package-so-you-can't-sue-us or whatever. But there's no question that he as the DRI for iOS was responsible for some measurable blips on the radar for Apple.
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Post by cbingle on Mar 29, 2013 20:16:44 GMT -8
Say what? Forstall was a major negative. So was Browett. Mansfield resigned and then came back because no one liked his replacement. There is major turmoil, ie power grab or whatever. The new guy from Xerox, what is his position, because PO is incompetent. Or, are all these guys cashing out. If they are, who can blame them. They reached the pinnacle of largest public company.
What else is there to do? For Steve, maybe yes. For everyone else, call it a day maybe? If it were me, I would take my $50 mil and go home. These people are human, you know.
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Post by applemuncher on Mar 29, 2013 20:35:12 GMT -8
When can we expect a China Mobile announcement? And will AAPL have to give in based on current sentiment. After all, AAPL is not in a strong position based on current stock valuation. And Tim does not appear very strong, relative to Steve. I see China Mobile and low cost iPhone announced on the same day.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Mar 29, 2013 20:38:42 GMT -8
Without Forstall there would be no iPhone.
He's a key OS X architect (very, very key) and iOS was pretty sweet until "tapering off" at iOS 5.
So yeah, big net positive. Just because he was no longer good for Apple doesn't mean he wasn't very important all those other years.
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Post by cambrose on Mar 29, 2013 23:25:00 GMT -8
Without Forstall there would be no iPhone. He's a key OS X architect (very, very key) and iOS was pretty sweet until "tapering off" at iOS 5. So yeah, big net positive. Just because he was no longer good for Apple doesn't mean he wasn't very important all those other years. Agreed. Very key to where Apple is now. Listen to Debug 11 with Don Melton if you have any doubts. Incredible stories. www.imore.com/debug-11-don-melton-and-safari
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Mar 29, 2013 23:40:03 GMT -8
About where is Forstall mentioned?
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Post by Deleted on Mar 30, 2013 4:24:19 GMT -8
Without Forstall there would be no iPhone. He's a key OS X architect (very, very key) and iOS was pretty sweet until "tapering off" at iOS 5. So yeah, big net positive. Just because he was no longer good for Apple doesn't mean he wasn't very important all those other years. I don't disagree. He came at a high cost however, as he was partly responsible for the departure of talented Apple honchos like Jon Rubenstein and Tony Fadell. The friction between Forestall and Jony Ive was untenable. His politicking was disruptive and a challenge to newly minted CEO Cook. I do think "mapsgates" was 50% a media invention. But I'm with Jony Ive who resisted skeuormorphism -- at least the examples Forestall liked. The calendar app and contacts apps are good examples of bad design. Cook made the right decision to send him packing IMO.
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Post by bud777 on Mar 30, 2013 4:53:31 GMT -8
I was wondering what the board thinks about the current anti-Apple campaign by the Chinese government. While we spend all this time worrying about "dividend vs. buyback" or "Can Apple innovate" or all these other contrived issues, it seems to me that here is a huge potential problem that is not really being discussed. Given the importance of the Chinese market and the power that the government has, isn't anyone concerned that the current anti-Apple publicity campaign will escalate into other limitations? I certainly don't know anything about the issue and would love to hear thoughts from those who do.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 30, 2013 7:46:34 GMT -8
I was wondering what the board thinks about the current anti-Apple campaign by the Chinese government. While we spend all this time worrying about "dividend vs. buyback" or "Can Apple innovate" or all these other contrived issues, it seems to me that here is a huge potential problem that is not really being discussed. Given the importance of the Chinese market and the power that the government has, isn't anyone concerned that the current anti-Apple publicity campaign will escalate into other limitations? I certainly don't know anything about the issue and would love to hear thoughts from those who do. This is nothing more than retaliation for our government's "attack" against Huawei and ZTE. Both of those firms use their OS to gather sensitive user data. US intelligence agencies put out an alert to that affect. In many ways, the Chinese act like undisciplined children that don't understand why others disapprove of their conduct.
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Post by sponge on Mar 30, 2013 8:16:15 GMT -8
Great article. It not only sheds light on the future iTV, but perfectly illustrates how products can be delayed or in short supply after initial release due to manufacturing issues. This is why this 2nd quarter Apple will surprise many with their numbers. No more short supply of the iPhone 5, iPad Mini, iPhone 4, and iMac. Also margins will have gone up as well with 6 months post first production batches of the iPhone 5, iPad Mini, MacBook Retina, iMac. Don't bet against us.
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