Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 5, 2013 13:14:54 GMT -8
Adding a little tweak to the weekend updates topic just for fun. We'll see if it catches on.
Technicals super-quick take: Double bottom or ELSE.
Not trading AAPL right now, but if I had to guess, I'd pick ELSE. Won't take long to find out.
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Post by mightydog on Apr 5, 2013 13:22:47 GMT -8
Technicals super-quick take: Double bottom or ELSE. Not trading AAPL right now, but if I had to guess, I'd pick ELSE. Won't take long to find out. I agree Mav. My money is also on ELSE. If APPL misses guidance it will be a shit storm of epic proportions. Given the modest guidance the company provided last quarter it would not be good to even barely meet the low end of the range. An announced material increase in dividend and/or buy back that coincides with less than good ER will be seen as desperation by the street. There will be blood in the water and I suspect a feeding frenzy will occur. In the near term I expect i will have to put up with more negativity, FUD and savaging by the various talking heads. However, I still think there is something to the company deciding against a guided EPS. They've guided on Revenue. So why not EPS? My hunch is either there will be an earnings surprise (good or bad) and management did not want to telegraph it 90 days prior or the share number is going to be different and again the company did not want to telegraph a buyback level. If memory serves me correctly, Apple repurchased $2 billion in shares as of FYE 2012. Fingers crossed that over the last 90 days the company repurchased the balance of $8 billion.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 5, 2013 14:10:41 GMT -8
Haven't we been over this? EPS range is there. You just have to run the numbers already given in guidance for a given share count, which you can assume to be more or less static until it isn't.
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Post by artman1033 on Apr 5, 2013 14:46:03 GMT -8
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Post by rickag on Apr 5, 2013 14:50:35 GMT -8
Technicals super-quick take: Double bottom or ELSE. Not trading AAPL right now, but if I had to guess, I'd pick ELSE. Won't take long to find out. I agree Mav. My money is also on ELSE. If APPL misses guidance it will be a shit storm of epic proportions. Given the modest guidance the company provided last quarter it would not be good to even barely meet the low end of the range. An announced material increase in dividend and/or buy back that coincides with less than good ER will be seen as desperation by the street. There will be blood in the water and I suspect a feeding frenzy will occur. In the near term I expect i will have to put up with more negativity, FUD and savaging by the various talking heads. However, I still think there is something to the company deciding against a guided EPS. They've guided on Revenue. So why not EPS? My hunch is either there will be an earnings surprise (good or bad) and management did not want to telegraph it 90 days prior or the share number is going to be different and again the company did not want to telegraph a buyback level. If memory serves me correctly, Apple repurchased $2 billion in shares as of FYE 2012. Fingers crossed that over the last 90 days the company repurchased the balance of $8 billion. The announced 10 billion was to be done over 3 years, not that I wouldn't mind the remaining 8 billion bought back sooner.
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Post by lovemyipad on Apr 5, 2013 14:54:36 GMT -8
Technicals super-quick take: Double bottom or ELSE. Not trading AAPL right now, but if I had to guess, I'd pick ELSE. Won't take long to find out. +1 My WAG: oversold bounce Monday so everyone is convinced it's a double bottom... until it's not.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 5, 2013 15:13:04 GMT -8
I can believe an oversold bounce if the S&P and Dow can...there's no good way to put this, is there? ;D ...manage to selloff two days in a row. (Can you tell what I'm hoping the markets do Monday? Chill, at this point a correction would be perfectly healthy! ;D) Nasdaq is actually getting kinda weak, which is why I ONLY NOW did an ill-timed momo BPS play on the QQQ.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 5, 2013 15:17:04 GMT -8
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Post by tuffett on Apr 5, 2013 15:58:29 GMT -8
From Intraday: Still?! Really? Not difficult to believe. Heck, we have one on these boards who seems almost proud and excited to get margin called.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 5, 2013 15:59:25 GMT -8
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Post by Deleted on Apr 5, 2013 16:06:06 GMT -8
I'm moving new money into my account Monday, just in case Wall Street hands me a gift. I mean, it's Christmas in April already but hell, Santa is insane. I'm looking to purchase Jan. 2015 500s.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 5, 2013 16:06:14 GMT -8
Eh. An iPhone by any other name, if not a significant redesign.
They learned from the 4S...very little. Generation-to-generation sales actually weren't too shabby, it's just the sales curve that got weird. Sins of the Forstall, don't forget.
If the iPhone next doesn't look that that much like the 5, then maybe Apple will call it the 6. Otherwise, the 2-year enclosure refresh cadence will continue until it doesn't.
Heck, there's actually some people out there who think the friggin' iPhone 5 design is uninspiring.
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Post by rezonate on Apr 5, 2013 16:06:14 GMT -8
Any intel out of NAB? Apple presence, seminars, new hardware/software?
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Post by Deleted on Apr 5, 2013 16:18:00 GMT -8
Eh. An iPhone by any other name, if not a significant redesign. They learned from the 4S...very little. Generation-to-generation sales actually weren't too shabby, it's just the sales curve that got weird. Sins of the Forstall, don't forget. If the iPhone next doesn't look that that much like the 5, then maybe Apple will call it the 6. Otherwise, the 2-year enclosure refresh cadence will continue until it doesn't. Heck, there's actually some people out there who think the friggin' iPhone 5 design is uninspiring. Did you read the article? How about just "iPhone?"
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Post by sponge on Apr 5, 2013 16:21:23 GMT -8
I think Apple should name the next update iPhone 7. Everyone will update because they think they skipped 6.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 5, 2013 16:31:42 GMT -8
Did you read the article? How about just "iPhone?" I'll confess, I didn't. But I didn't really need to - having read it I wouldn't have changed my post any. Never mind the S. If iPhone 4S was named anything different...it still looks the same. So a big "whatever" to naming conventions, as I think they're pretty much meaningless far as Apple goes. Some people won't look much deeper than how the handset looks. So be it. Doesn't mean it MUST change each year for change's sake. Doesn't bother Samsung that much. ;D iPhone 6 with a redesign this year would be ideal. But the world isn't ideal and Apple is practical. And the iPhone 5 design is plenty nice enough to keep around another year to give Jony time to work on still other designs. iPhone number will continue, I think, just because of the instant name and generation recognition. No one will mistake a 5 for a 4S/4. I'll concede, though, that iPad's naming is an experiment in eliminating that "complexity".
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Post by Deleted on Apr 5, 2013 16:34:16 GMT -8
How about naming it "Galaxy Plus?" Hah.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 5, 2013 16:35:30 GMT -8
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Post by Deleted on Apr 5, 2013 16:37:37 GMT -8
Dammit Mav, you are a real buzzkill... Well, I'm going to be stubborn and say iPhone 6 or simply, iPhone.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 5, 2013 16:42:07 GMT -8
Just doin' my job. ;D You say iPhone 6, I say 5S unless the rumor chatter implies otherwise. Hey, to each their own. Unless Apple has a redesign of some sort, I don't see much of an impact on sales just because of numbering conventions or lack thereof. Maybe China Mobile would be the bigger wildcard as far as units.
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Post by lovemyipad on Apr 5, 2013 17:17:00 GMT -8
See weekly chart. Compare mid- to end of November and mid- to end of March. Short interest was increasing as price was retracing up to EMA-13. Potentially, short squeezes helped fuel the retrace, then after the shorts capitulated, no real (versus forced) buyers stepped in, and price dropped.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 5, 2013 17:42:00 GMT -8
The key to FQ2 2013 earnings and sentiment and stock price boils down to how many iPhones did Apple sell. Period. My take is this: Peter Oppenheimer said they expect to beat last year’s sell-through iPhone sales of 32.5M (not sell-in 35M) but sell fewer than Dec. 2012’s 47.8M number. Mid-point # is 40M iPhones in FQ 2 2013. I’m very comfortable with 37M iPhones, which will lock a mid-to-high $10 EPS #, enough to restart Saturn V rockets.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 5, 2013 17:51:20 GMT -8
See weekly chart. Compare mid- to end of November and mid- to end of March. Short interest was increasing as price was retracing up to EMA-13. Potentially, short squeezes helped fuel the retrace, then after the shorts capitulated, no real (versus forced) buyers stepped in, and price dropped. I was actually asking if you had older short interest info to patch to the current data. ;D
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Post by sponge on Apr 5, 2013 18:24:56 GMT -8
The key to FQ2 2013 earnings and sentiment and stock price boils down to how many iPhones did Apple sell. Period. My take is this: Peter Oppenheimer said they expect to beat last year’s sell-through iPhone sales of 32.5M (not sell-in 35M) but sell fewer than Dec. 2012’s 47.8M number. Mid-point # is 40M iPhones in FQ 2 2013. I’m very comfortable with 37M iPhones, which will lock a mid-to-high $10 EPS #, enough to restart Saturn V rockets. 39.6 to be more exact. ;D
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 5, 2013 18:59:07 GMT -8
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Post by mace on Apr 5, 2013 20:33:03 GMT -8
3.5" display calls iPod touch - Can be kept in a purse 4.0" display calls iPod touch - Can be kept in a purse 7.9" display calls iPad mini - Can be kept in a handbag 9.7" display calls iPad - Can be kept in a briefcase 4.8" display also calls iPod touch ? For a small handbag? Are there a lady in Jony's team? In 5-10 years, probably no more voice plan, all are data plan because VOIP phone would be good enough. So still want to call 4.8", an iPhone? Apple would be innovating if the 4.8" come with a phone apps that can call/be called via IMEI or ICCID, ofc email addresses and Apple iD.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 5, 2013 21:00:07 GMT -8
One day, iTalk may be a reality. Minutes may become a thing of the past.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 5, 2013 21:39:17 GMT -8
One day, iTalk may be a reality. Minutes may become a thing of the past. Apple just needs to offer FaceTime calls - without the face. FaceTime is already built into every apple iOS device.
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Post by rickag on Apr 6, 2013 5:55:31 GMT -8
iPhone 00110110 01010011
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Post by bloodylongaapl on Apr 6, 2013 8:04:51 GMT -8
This bull doesn't expect 419 to hold. I just don't see any positive catalysts ahead of earnings. Perversely the only thing I think that could support us is a broad market sell-off causing AAPL fundamentals to be re-assessed...
This far down, this close to earnings, after a 7 month slide and with broad expectations of a weak June quarter, if and when we do reverse without a significant catalyst it will be blindingly obvious.
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