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Post by sponge on Apr 6, 2013 8:17:20 GMT -8
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Post by sponge on Apr 6, 2013 8:26:09 GMT -8
This bull doesn't expect 419 to hold. I just don't see any positive catalysts ahead of earnings. Perversely the only thing I think that could support us is a broad market sell-off causing AAPL fundamentals to be re-assessed... This far down, this close to earnings, after a 7 month slide and with broad expectations of a weak June quarter, if and when we do reverse without a significant catalyst it will be blindingly obvious. First of all we now have held 419 two times. That is bullish. Yes we said the same thing about 440 and we finally broke down below that. However this time we are too close to earnings. There is no evidence that Apple's guidance will not be met. All the downgrades and negative news is behind us. There are those who are already worried about 3rd quarter. So there is a little risk of further selling regardless of how the strong the numbers are for 2nd quarter. But I am confident Apple will not only surprise us with stronger numbers, but there will be one number that will surprise everyone and make them more bullish. That number could be Macs, iPads, iPhones or margin. Add to that some news about buyback or dividend and combine with some new evernt, and the stock will take a life of its own. Also in guidance Apple could hint about new products which the market desperately wants to hear.
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Post by tuffett on Apr 6, 2013 8:51:44 GMT -8
Samsung earnings up 53% with increased margins. Apple will suffer a YoY decline and decreased margins. I'm aware of the 47% anomaly and all that and I do believe Apple will resume profit growth going forward, but the difference right now is massive and should not be overlooked. Think about what most people on this board would be saying if the tables were turned and Samsung was declining. They'd be labelling Samsung a loser and past its prime rather than making excuses for them. Many people will think the same of Apple right now. I'm of the opinion that the truth lies somewhere in between. Just imagine the reports that will come out after Apple reports. I hesitate to call it FUD because it is really is something to think about. Don't forget, the valuation of the two companies is somewhat similar. Samsung is also at a sub-10 P/E, and they're actually growing. Leads me to believe there is no level too low for Apple, at least in the short term.
If revenue growth cannot overcome GM fluctuation then something has changed and there is cause for measured concern. Especially when the biggest competitor grows at 50% in the same quarter. I know all about Apple's success in the USA and I'm very happy about it but at the end of the day it's total global profit that matters.
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Post by Lstream on Apr 6, 2013 9:33:43 GMT -8
Samsung earnings up 53% with increased margins. Apple will suffer a loss and decreased margins. Good one. ;D. Also, how about actually comparing the margins and see what that story tells? Not some vague, one is going up and one is going down characterization.
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Post by tuffett on Apr 6, 2013 9:37:31 GMT -8
Samsung earnings up 53% with increased margins. Apple will suffer a loss and decreased margins. Good one. ;D. Also, how about actually comparing the margins and see what that story tells? Not some vague, one is going up and one is going down characterization. My bad. Of course, I mean profit decline. Of course, Apple's margins are still higher but the market is forward looking. You cannot discount the fact that Samsung's are growing and Apple's are not. With all the talk here about Samsung entering a race to the bottom and only competing on price, a margin increase on already decent margins was surprising news to me. It shows that along with all the crap, Samsung's high end phones (Galaxy S3, Galaxy Note II) are selling well globally. I agree we need more than a quarter or two to make more firm judgements, but at the same time, with the information we have right now it isn't something to disregard either. Profit growth is the number to watch. It takes into account revenue and margin and everything else. It's quite obvious who has been doing better over the last year. Time will tell if the roles will reverse again, but it's silly to just assume they will.
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Post by mightydog on Apr 6, 2013 9:41:31 GMT -8
Good one. ;D. Also, how about actually comparing the margins and see what that story tells? Not some vague, one is going up and one is going down characterization. My bad. Of course, I mean profit decline. Of course, Apple's margins are still higher but the market is forward looking. You cannot discount the fact that Samsung's are growing and Apple's are not. With all the talk here about Samsung entering a race to the bottom and only competing on price, a margin increase on already decent margins was surprising news to me. It shows that along with all the crap, Samsung's high end phones (Galaxy S3, Galaxy Note II) are selling well globally. I agree we need more than a quarter or two to make more firm judgements, but at the same time, with the information we have right now it isn't something to disregard either. Profit growth is the number to watch. It takes into account revenue and margin and everything else. It's quite obvious who has been doing better over the last year. Time will tell if the roles will reverse again, but it's silly to just assume they will. Maybe Apple should start making washing machines, microwaves, and air conditioners?
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Post by tuffett on Apr 6, 2013 9:54:57 GMT -8
We know TVs, fridges, washing machines, chip fab, and low end smartphones are all relatively low margin businesses. Therefore, if Samsung is reporting huge profit growth and an increase in margins, it doesn't take a genius to deduce that it is largely a result of strong higher-end smartphone sales. Come on, guys.
I don't see what washing machines or microwaves have to do with anything. Just sounds like another excuse for Apple.
To reiterate, Samsung's recent success is not because of their TVs or washing machines. It's because of their success in the mid to high end smartphone market. I welcome any discussion that refutes this, but I just don't see it.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 6, 2013 9:57:49 GMT -8
Good one. ;D. Also, how about actually comparing the margins and see what that story tells? Not some vague, one is going up and one is going down characterization. My bad. Of course, I mean profit decline. Of course, Apple's margins are still higher but the market is forward looking. You cannot discount the fact that Samsung's are growing and Apple's are not. With all the talk here about Samsung entering a race to the bottom and only competing on price, a margin increase on already decent margins was surprising news to me. It shows that along with all the crap, Samsung's high end phones (Galaxy S3, Galaxy Note II) are selling well globally. I agree we need more than a quarter or two to make more firm judgements, but at the same time, with the information we have right now it isn't something to disregard either. Profit growth is the number to watch. It takes into account revenue and margin and everything else. It's quite obvious who has been doing better over the last year. Time will tell if the roles will reverse again, but it's silly to just assume they will. Apple is clearly held to a higher standard by Wall Street. Now, it's profit growth, you say? I GUARANTEE you that if Apple's profit growth climbed on a sales decline, it would become imperative for Apple to focus on sales growth. Wall Street has discounted Apple in the past because its high margins were unsustainable, suggesting they wanted to see normalized margins. Now that margins have come down, it's a bigger problem?
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Post by tuffett on Apr 6, 2013 10:09:47 GMT -8
I absolutely agree Apple is held to a higher standard. That doesn't invalidate my point that Samsung growing +53% while Apple grows at -XX% even though the iPhone 5 is the latest flagship phone on the market is cause for concern.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 6, 2013 10:20:12 GMT -8
Can't blame Cook/Apple without also placing a heaping helping of blame on a certain (former) iOS DRI
Just sayin
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Post by appledoc on Apr 6, 2013 11:02:58 GMT -8
Don't argue with WS. If they want to hold Apple to a different standard, so be it. I'm not going to continue to lose money because of my stubbornness.
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Post by lovemyipad on Apr 6, 2013 11:08:38 GMT -8
I was actually asking if you had older short interest info to patch to the current data. ;D Oopsie! Sorry! And yes, I do somewhere... Will try to dig it up for you this weekend.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 6, 2013 11:25:51 GMT -8
Short interest on AAPL IS getting quite high. Something to track over the next few months.
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Post by lovemyipad on Apr 6, 2013 11:55:24 GMT -8
Don't argue with WS. If they want to hold Apple to a different standard, so be it. I'm not going to continue to lose money because of my stubbornness. No surprise, I tend to share Doc's views. That said, people's investment objectives, time horizon, skill sets, and risk profiles differ; so what's right for me isn't necessarily right for others and vice-versa. This is ME and my POV, which doesn't necessarily have to be YOU and your POV: I "trade" in my husband's and my retirement accounts (options), while our non-retirement accounts are primarily buy-and-hold investments (stock), for many reasons not the least of which is not wanting to complicate our tax returns any more than they already are while we are American expats in Canada (this is our last year in Canada). My cheapest AAPL shares were bought at 348, the most expensive at 485. In this price zone, for our long-term investments, objectives, etc., dollar-cost averaging works for me. That said, I recently cashed out of *every* other equity, viewing capital gains taxes as inconsequential compared to the actual capital (appreciation) I want to protect for the longer term, given my technical opinion of the overall market. (Read: Red's goal of "I don't need all the gains, just none of the losses.") While I am fine with dollar-cost averaging into the aforementioned AAPL shares, I have not since last earnings and will not commit new capital to *any* additional bullish AAPL options purchases (bearish only) until we've reclaimed the weekly SMA-100, as I have quite enough currently worthless JAN'14 and JAN'15 bull spreads and no desire to piss away any more money until I have greater confidence in short- and intermediate- term upside.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 6, 2013 12:07:03 GMT -8
FYI: VZ reports April 18. Over the weeks I've changed my mind a bit on US carrier data points (well, AT&T and Verizon, anyway). Maybe not the best for pure extrapolation, but useful.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 6, 2013 12:07:47 GMT -8
Just iPad's opinion, of course.
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Post by lovemyipad on Apr 6, 2013 12:35:10 GMT -8
This bull doesn't expect 419 to hold. I just don't see any positive catalysts ahead of earnings. Perversely the only thing I think that could support us is a broad market sell-off causing AAPL fundamentals to be re-assessed... This far down, this close to earnings, after a 7 month slide and with broad expectations of a weak June quarter, if and when we do reverse without a significant catalyst it will be blindingly obvious. Ditto. I keep, keep, keep wondering if "AAPL led," the broad market into the 2012 bull run, did AAPL also lead a broad market haircut? Will the markets and the current helium stocks, in due course, follow AAPL's trajectory? Did this crash happen to AAPL in isolation, or were we merely the first to fall, in the same way consumer packaged goods ("defensive" names) tends to be last? Look who's going "parabolic" now. The Mmm-Mmm Good, Cheerios, and Pampers folks...
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 6, 2013 12:40:48 GMT -8
Am I missing something?
Or should I check the Nestlé and General Mills charts? ;D
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Post by lovemyipad on Apr 6, 2013 12:41:34 GMT -8
Mav, no joke. Look at GIS. I mean, we know Cheerios is baby crack, but that chart is telling a story...
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 6, 2013 12:52:50 GMT -8
Could be a bull flag. ;D
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Post by lovemyipad on Apr 6, 2013 13:03:18 GMT -8
Wouldn't surprise me. Think AAPL first time in the low 500s or high 500s. Express train.
First north, then south. In the middle some choppy-toppy action -- local commuter stops -- head fakes for both sides.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 6, 2013 13:12:25 GMT -8
If APPL misses guidance it will be a shit storm of epic proportions. Given the modest guidance the company provided last quarter it would not be good to even barely meet the low end of the range. My forecast model for the past 6 years relied on seasonal 3 year average performance by ASP and product. That model failed me horribly starting with FQ3/2012 results. It took me until FQ1/2013 results to see that Apple has entered a new era where past averages no longer apply. That's when I compared guidance to results going back to 2010. I immediately noted a change in Apple's guidance practice starting with guidance given in April 2012. For FQ2/2013 my model continues to estimate using seasonal 3 year averages. However, I overrode those results using Apple's "new" guidance practice. That meant shoehorning ASPs and units into a much lower Revenue estimate (it was a lot of shoehorning).Because of that, I find it difficult to believe that Apple will fail to meet the mid-points of management's guidance. WS consensus is lower than Apple's guidance for one reason, and one reason only: they have been horribly wrong since Apple changed to the new guidance practice. To remain relevant they have to forecast a winner. A winner in their eyes is when Apple exceeds their estimates (whisper numbers). For that reason I think WS revenue consensus ($39.96 Billion) is 7% - 13% lower than Apple will report. My personal estimate (calculated in mid February to avoid the noise generated by unsubstantiated rumors) is $45.150 Billion. EPS is $11.50 on 947 Million fully diluted shares.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 6, 2013 13:13:02 GMT -8
Haven't we been over this? EPS range is there. You just have to run the numbers already given in guidance for a given share count, which you can assume to be more or less static until it isn't. Tah Dahhhh
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Post by Deleted on Apr 6, 2013 13:20:46 GMT -8
Fingers crossed that over the last 90 days the company repurchased the balance of $8 billion. Not me, not with the theoretical results an $8 Billion cash inflow should have generated. If $8 Billion is what it took to keep AAPL from dropping below $419, then, as investors we need to look for another favorite equity.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 6, 2013 13:27:28 GMT -8
Eh. An iPhone by any other name, if not a significant redesign. They learned from the 4S...very little. Generation-to-generation sales actually weren't too shabby, it's just the sales curve that got weird. Sins of the Forstall, don't forget. If the iPhone next doesn't look that that much like the 5, then maybe Apple will call it the 6. Otherwise, the 2-year enclosure refresh cadence will continue until it doesn't. Heck, there's actually some people out there who think the friggin' iPhone 5 design is uninspiring. Did you read the article? How about just "iPhone?" I posted this on MDN:
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Post by Deleted on Apr 6, 2013 13:31:23 GMT -8
Dammit Mav, you are a real buzzkill... Well, I'm going to be stubborn and say iPhone 6 or simply, iPhone. I posted this at MDN
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Post by mace on Apr 6, 2013 13:32:01 GMT -8
... I recently cashed out of *every* other equity, viewing capital gains taxes as inconsequential compared to the actual capital (appreciation) I want to protect for the longer term, given my technical opinion of the overall market. (Read: Red's goal of "I don't need all the gains, just none of the losses.") ... Are you expecting a severe correction or a secular bear market? Secular = More than a year. For DCA purchasing, you want the price to keep declining. Ofc, you only want to purchase if you think price would be higher sometime in the future. This may not be true for stocks because most of them eventually become insolvent or acquired. But for country indices, so far is true unless got nuked by North Korea. So for stocks, one may want to stop DCA purchases at some point. If I'm in your shoe, I would DCA purchase AAPL so long price is less than $485. Ofc, begin DCA selling once above certain price. As I'm not an active trader, portfolio management is not suitable for me. I employ asset allocation theory i.e. hold a mix of growth equities, passive income and cash, with the aim that no matter what happen (hyperinflation, depression or stagflation), asset would trend upwards in the long term. Btw, cyclical economic fluctuations are nothing to fear about.
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Post by mace on Apr 6, 2013 13:37:44 GMT -8
... Ditto. I keep, keep, keep wondering if "AAPL led," the broad market into the 2012 bull run, did AAPL also lead a broad market haircut? Will the markets and the current helium stocks, in due course, follow AAPL's trajectory? Did this crash happen to AAPL in isolation, or were we merely the first to fall, in the same way consumer packaged goods ("defensive" names) tends to be last? Look who's going "parabolic" now. The Mmm-Mmm Good, Cheerios, and Pampers folks... Yup, consumer staples and healthcare stocks have went parabolic. Is this sector rotation or ending of bull market? Look at JNJ and PG, incredible !!!! They are supposed to be boring and sideways stocks.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 6, 2013 13:37:59 GMT -8
The indices ARE toppy though. I'm as interested as I've been in some time.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 6, 2013 13:47:30 GMT -8
In 5-10 years, probably no more voice plan, all are data plan because VOIP phone would be good enough. So still want to call 4.8", an iPhone? Apple would be innovating if the 4.8" come with a phone apps that can call/be called via IMEI or ICCID, ofc email addresses and Apple iD. At a telecom conference in 2000, Sprint stated that voice com would be data in the near future, and that use billing would no longer be driven by minutes, as the caller would be "online" all the time. My firm took this to heart. So we developed a Call Accounting system that measured data attributable to a device/account vs the age old minutes off-hook method then in use. Cost the firm about $300K in actual development costs, not to mention development time taken from other projects. We never made a dime on it.
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