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Post by seabiscuit on Apr 11, 2013 8:10:12 GMT -8
That whisper number of 11.77 has no chance of being hit. Where do these whisper numbers come from? Do authors just make them up? The Wisper Number comes from some firm that sends polls out to a lot of folks asking for their opinion. I get regular requests for my opinion.
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Post by flyonthewall on Apr 11, 2013 8:11:08 GMT -8
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Post by dreamRaj on Apr 11, 2013 8:11:51 GMT -8
Sometimes I wonder if us long term types should just stop reading every story about Apple and just focus on company performance and nothing else. The endless barrage of Apple stories and all the conflicting information might do us more harm than good. there is no question it does more harm than good. i know i am not truly 'long'. or i probably wouldn't visit this forum. We are all trying to time buys/sells, and thus all the news impacts our emotions, usually resulting in frustration, or occasionally, excitement. It definitely adds stress to all of our lives, which is more harm than good, but now we're talking about generalities of getting possibly too passionate about ones investments. I think if we were invested ONLY in stock then it would be easier to not think much of the price fluctuations. But it's the Options that keep our stress levels high.
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Post by mace on Apr 11, 2013 8:31:02 GMT -8
Conspiracy theory: Is a signaling site. Signaling site? WS is doing what, exactly? 1. Telling Apple has an upside surprise? 2 Telling the insiders to short the stock because it has no way of hitting the whisper? 2 in this case. Firms have to collude cooperate through a legal intermediary.
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Post by sponge on Apr 11, 2013 8:39:10 GMT -8
there is no question it does more harm than good. i know i am not truly 'long'. or i probably wouldn't visit this forum. We are all trying to time buys/sells, and thus all the news impacts our emotions, usually resulting in frustration, or occasionally, excitement. It definitely adds stress to all of our lives, which is more harm than good, but now we're talking about generalities of getting possibly too passionate about ones investments. I think if we were invested ONLY in stock then it would be easier to not think much of the price fluctuations. But it's the Options that keep our stress levels high. Agreed. Thats why one must invest for the long haul. Options does not allow you to think that way. We are now dropping, like I had been afraid we would after seeing how we acted this a.m.. Looks like 437.99 was the high of the week. I now expect more profit taking tomorrow. We should put away our thoughts of 440 at this point.
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Post by mace on Apr 11, 2013 8:44:44 GMT -8
I think if we were invested ONLY in stock then it would be easier to not think much of the price fluctuations. But it's the Options that keep our stress levels high. Options is like heroine, try once and is impossible to stop.
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Post by rob_london on Apr 11, 2013 9:00:45 GMT -8
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Post by Deleted on Apr 11, 2013 9:09:39 GMT -8
Signaling site? WS is doing what, exactly? 1. Telling Apple has an upside surprise? 2 Telling the insiders to short the stock because it has no way of hitting the whisper? 2 in this case. Firms have to collude cooperate through a legal intermediary. Exactly my thinking.
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Post by mace on Apr 11, 2013 9:20:40 GMT -8
My order for the Jan550 never got filled so I cancelled it. Still can't do spreads? Although I don't believe AAPL would hit $700 this year, but you firmly believe so. If that is the case, have you considered ratio spreads? For example, Long Jan 14 $650 call for $3.25 Short 2 x Jan 14 $700 calls for $1.79 Credit = 33 cents Your position is better than do nothing so long AAPL is below $750 on Jan 14 OE. Max profit at $700 on Jan 14. IMHO, optimistically AAPL won't be higher than $600 so: Long Jan 14 $550 call at $11.45 Short 2 x Jan 14 $600 calls at $6.05 Credit = 65 cents Your position is better than do nothing so long AAPL is below $650 on Jan 14 OE. Max profit at $600 on Jan 14. Above exploit the fact that you've shares. So number of short calls must be less than twice the number of lots (100 shares per lot). Do calls only if AAPL is confirmed in the uptrend. Monitor the EW threads especially what LovemyiPad and Appledoc have to say and ichimoku cloud. Price must be above cloud. Just to summarize: If want to open long now, spreads = ratio spreads (1:2) Inside ichimoku cloud, spreads = slightly OTM bullish call spreads Above ichimoku cloud, long calls (not too OTM) or more OTM BCS
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Post by sponge on Apr 11, 2013 9:26:44 GMT -8
Thanx for input Mace.
I think blood is in the streets so I won't wait for uptrend.
Never more bullish. I think this stock will take off in late summer or fall.
WS wants products and Apple will deliver. Samsung will start to falter, goog will show lower growth rate, and with MS really struggling, sentiment will change quickly. 700 just puts us back in a positive trend, and increased margins and growing income will move us beyond that.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 11, 2013 9:28:32 GMT -8
$11.77 my #$$
Here I thought Earnings Whispers couldn't get any more stupid.
No one expects anything like $11.77. I wouldn't worry about that idiot number. I'd worry more about Apple just putting up decent numbers.
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Post by sponge on Apr 11, 2013 10:28:22 GMT -8
Volume is pathetic again. This tells me no one wants to jump the gun in buying until earnings.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 11, 2013 10:53:35 GMT -8
Copied from yesterday's thread. My comment at the bottom.
Right you are, Burgess. Given recent stories on the decline in Windows sales, I'm thinking (hoping) the decline is Windows related, and not so much Mac related in so far as the YoY compare is concerned.
I'm inclined to believe PO when he stated Apple lost 700,000 Mac units sold during the December quarter due to supply/build issues, and that those issues have been corrected, and the December surplus demand was cured during the March quarter. I believe whatever problems that beset Apple during the December quarter had been cured prior to the January conference call, otherwise PO would not have brought it up. Mentioning it implies that Apple expects to ship an additional 700,000 units beyond forecasted March quarter estimates. That scenario would make Apple a net gainer YoY vs Windows negative growth results.
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Post by phoebear611 on Apr 11, 2013 11:02:55 GMT -8
John Sculley is about to come on CNBC to talk about AAPL (wish he would just stop already). But in the teaser, the announcer said that he is going to discuss why Samsung should hire Ron Johnson. WTF?!
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Post by Deleted on Apr 11, 2013 11:08:39 GMT -8
John Sculley is about to come on CNBC to talk about AAPL (wish he would just stop already). But in the teaser, the announcer said that he is going to discuss why Samsung should hire Ron Johnson. WTF?! John Sculley isn't stupid. His mistakes at Apple would have been made by any other traditionally trained administrator. Still Sculley envisioned the Newton, which was well ahead of Palm, etc., and evolved under Jobs to become the iPhone/iPad. The key differentiator between them was an interface - stylus vs touch.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 11, 2013 11:19:11 GMT -8
$11.77 my #$$ Here I thought Earnings Whispers couldn't get any more stupid. No one expects anything like $11.77. I wouldn't worry about that idiot number. I'd worry more about Apple just putting up decent numbers. Yeah, I've calmed down. It simply is not credible. I hope North Korea hacks their site and gives them 10 megatons of malware. F'ing ridiculous what has become of the media and the stock market.
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Post by phoebear611 on Apr 11, 2013 11:25:43 GMT -8
John Sculley is about to come on CNBC to talk about AAPL (wish he would just stop already). But in the teaser, the announcer said that he is going to discuss why Samsung should hire Ron Johnson. WTF?! John Sculley isn't stupid. His mistakes at Apple would have been made by any other traditionally trained administrator. Still Sculley envisioned the Newton, which was well ahead of Palm, etc., and evolved under Jobs to become the iPhone/iPad. The key differentiator between them was an interface - stylus vs touch. I wasn't suggesting he was stupid - I just don't understand why he has this insatiable desire to always make a comment about AAPL. Anyway - I watched it and he is suggesting that Samsung or even Best Buy should hire him because mobile video is where all is going and both these companies occupy that space. He said it would be a coup if Samsung hired him. He added that AAPL should be picking up the phone and calling him as well. Are they personal friends - anyone know???
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Post by BillH on Apr 11, 2013 11:35:35 GMT -8
Sometimes I wonder if us long term types should just stop reading every story about Apple and just focus on company performance and nothing else. The endless barrage of Apple stories and all the conflicting information might do us more harm than good. The daily board has been tough for me to read of late. Yesterday I went back and listened to Jobs 1997 WWDC talk and commented on Braeburn about how Apple's strategy was laid out way back then. Roman then added a talk he gave in Aspen back in 1983 that gave a sneak peek into where we are now and where we are going. All of this ended up being pretty dang comforting for me (in these times) because I realized once again that Apple could care less about this world and has plenty to work on shaping "what's next". I realize there are those here that are offended by this approach and I get that but believe that their unrelenting march to the future will make us all plenty of dollars if they can stay unimpeded.
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Post by phoebear611 on Apr 11, 2013 12:07:44 GMT -8
The issue is that the world is a different place now and even though SJ laid out plans for the foreseeable future - he did not know what external factors and competitors may have affected AAPL through these past years/months. SJ was gifted but not God...so the hope is that he saw some wisdom and good judgement in TC to leave him in charge to deal with BOTH external factors and internal ones as well. As to whether the people on AFB think he is doing a good job?...seems like it's a split. I don't know know that SJ would have taken the same path as TC. Could have been better ... could have been worse (he did have a bad temper, remember?) But we will never know - we can only speculate. That being said, TC has to actually be better at execution because he doesn't get the free "genius, founder, visionary" pass. And so far, WS is punishing the stock because they don't believe (and now I'm speculating) that the job done is a job well done. Again, IMHO.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 11, 2013 12:12:18 GMT -8
Sources? Earnings Whispers? Really?
They're unaccountable. End of story.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 11, 2013 12:13:41 GMT -8
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Post by phoebear611 on Apr 11, 2013 12:15:34 GMT -8
Sources? Earnings Whispers? Really? They're unaccountable. End of story. You are spot on but the bigger issue is that is what the media takes and runs with - because they are accountable to no one - and then set everyone up for a great disappointment....and the stock reacts poorly. This is exactly what I thought AAPL management was trying to get away from - the unrealistic expectations - which is why they suggested that their guidance would be in line. And yet, here we go again.
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Post by phoebear611 on Apr 11, 2013 12:17:56 GMT -8
Whoa - Andreessen's head is a perfectly shaped egg...or a cone-head...maybe he is from Remulak?!
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Post by nathanstevens on Apr 11, 2013 12:34:57 GMT -8
Lots of Bitcoin talk lately in various media outlets. Digital currency with limited supply and Extremely low transaction costs.
Would an iCoin digital currency be totally out of the question? It could bring all the benefits of encrypted digital currency to the mainstream with an iOS update.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 11, 2013 12:50:09 GMT -8
"Look at the Glassholes..." John Gruber. This is one of the dumbest ideas, ever. If lack of demand won't kill it, public embarrassment will (where venues don't ban it entirely).
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Post by Deleted on Apr 11, 2013 12:54:54 GMT -8
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Post by Deleted on Apr 11, 2013 13:00:01 GMT -8
Volume is pathetic again. This tells me no one wants to jump the gun in buying until earnings. You forgot to give price targets in your post... ;D
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Apr 11, 2013 14:07:15 GMT -8
Whoa - Andreessen's head is a perfectly shaped egg...or a cone-head...maybe he is from Remulak?! Listen, female unit, leave coneheaded persons alone... nobody should wear those butt-ugly spectacles...
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 11, 2013 14:25:50 GMT -8
The longer Google actually tries to push Google Glasses, the more I'll be convinced that Larry Page didn't learn from Steve's advice...
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Post by lovemyipad on Apr 11, 2013 14:27:11 GMT -8
Sometimes I wonder if us long term types should just stop reading every story about Apple and just focus on company performance and nothing else. The endless barrage of Apple stories and all the conflicting information might do us more harm than good. IMHO: yes.
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