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Post by Deleted on Apr 12, 2013 0:05:09 GMT -8
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 12, 2013 0:49:58 GMT -8
There are those of us who are more techie than others.
But there are also those of us who couldn't care less that their smaller MacBook with the third-highest notebook resolution display in the world is running a "pathetic" Intel IGP and that it's probably only due to some fancy hardware/software integration from Apple that the overall experience still works (AFAIK - I've never really tried out the MacBook 13" retina myself). That "does it look great, does it just work?" group has always outnumbered the tech snob-types, the same way car enthusiasts from popular magazine subscribers on up are vastly outnumbered by point A-to-B-type car owners.
And to think that Steve, all too human, was knocked back a bit when he heard all of the early criticism about iPad and the sophomoric crap about the iPad name. No one who matters is laughing now.
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Post by rob_london on Apr 12, 2013 2:40:16 GMT -8
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Post by rezonate on Apr 12, 2013 4:42:53 GMT -8
Mav, nice post. I got the last MB Air because the screen resolution was 1440x900 but hated the dual core limit and integrated graphics. So Mrs. Rez has it now and I'm in processor/screen nirvana with the 15" quad 2.7ghz MPBr. Until a new Mac Pro comes out. I think specs matter but you're not going to experience the (remarkable) difference with a 10 minute tryout at the store. If Apple keeps selling to both A-to-B and luxury car groups, I guess we should be happy.
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Post by terps530 on Apr 12, 2013 5:40:06 GMT -8
cash pain as of this morning: the 430+/-5 range from earlier in the week looks to be holding up. Next week we have a monthly expiration with tons more $ in the options, so we'll see how it unfolds. Pain was at 460 on March 20th, and has been slowly dropping day by day. Right now it is sitting in the 445-450 range.
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Post by lance on Apr 12, 2013 5:50:30 GMT -8
Can Apple release these weak earnings already, so I can actually start buying again. The stock has no ability to go up at any strong level till this is over.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 12, 2013 5:56:28 GMT -8
cash pain as of this morning: the 430+/-5 range from earlier in the week looks to be holding up. Next week we have a monthly expiration with tons more $ in the options, so we'll see how it unfolds. Pain was at 460 on March 20th, and has been slowly dropping day by day. Right now it is sitting in the 445-450 range. Terps, just curious, but do you find that max pain doesn't follow the simpler cut-and-past of OCC's published contracts outstanding? It's pretty clear Apple should close between $430 and $435 but your highlighted rows suggest Apple can close up to $440. I've been using theocc for 2+ years now and perhaps it's just my familiarity with using it.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 12, 2013 6:01:30 GMT -8
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Post by Deleted on Apr 12, 2013 6:05:23 GMT -8
This thief used chopsticks to delicately separate an iPhone from its owner. Will the Chinese media blame Apple for this? I doubt they will call for the banning of chopsticks (the predictable response if it were an Apple invention)
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Post by terps530 on Apr 12, 2013 6:07:26 GMT -8
Terps, just curious, but do you find that max pain doesn't follow the simpler cut-and-past of OCC's published contracts outstanding? It's pretty clear Apple should close between $430 and $435 but your highlighted rows suggest Apple can close up to $440. I've been using theocc for 2+ years now and perhaps it's just my familiarity with using it. Well that is very similar. Max pain per the open interest. The #'s I have are the same but also add the cash value of those open interests, if apple closed at each of the strikes. I feel it gives a bit more depth, and thus possibly 'an extra data point of confidence'. the red and yellow highlight fall on the same 430 as of today, which is why it only shows yellow. The yellow is the max cash pain though. So when comparing the two methods, the OI's from OCC give you that Crossing point, between 430 and 435. The cash then shows that at 430, $31.6 mill expire worthless, and at 435, $33.5mill expire worthless. Thus, the max cash (yellow highlight) is the lower of the two #s as that would cost the least pain to writers. So both methods are 90% the same. There is just the extra cash amount to try to pinpoint it more. And the green/red give a broader range, which tightens up as expiration approaches. Green= largest amount of calls red = largest amount of puts
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Post by Deleted on Apr 12, 2013 6:22:39 GMT -8
To buy or not to buy...
The options market appears to signal a rise next week in AAPL, or at least indicate a reasonably safe floor at $430. I'm really not a trader, but after the contraction in my portfolio, I'm tempted to hold for part of next week, wherein we could see a $10-$15 anticipation rally.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 12, 2013 6:24:48 GMT -8
If Apple runs late with the next iPhone, then any delays will be excusable if it has a fingerprint I.D. technology on board. It will be HUGE and signal Apple's next disruption with mobile payment processing. Plus, there will be less reliance on usernames and passwords. bgr.com/2013/04/12/iphone-5s-fingerprint-scanner-analysis-433410/
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Post by Deleted on Apr 12, 2013 7:07:23 GMT -8
Not surprising that Samsung now has its own buy back program. The deal is though, that Apple's margins allow cuts even deeper if management wants, while Samsung is close to selling at a loss. Who has the more sustainable program, hmmm? With this program Apple has told the world how it is going to deal with low end buyers. In selected markets Apple is going to ship remaining inventories of its least expensive model (just before it is EOL'd) to markets where the latest/greatest isn't selling well. In this way Apple cleans out overstocks AND gains share (WS's favorite metric). Brilliant.
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Post by sponge on Apr 12, 2013 7:07:50 GMT -8
The profit taking I anticipate on Wednesday is happening now.
At this point a close above 430 would be OK but would prefer 435 so we can get 440 early next week.
I may grab that Jan550 at end of the day.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 12, 2013 7:18:29 GMT -8
If Apple runs late with the next iPhone, then any delays will be excusable if it has a fingerprint I.D. technology on board. It will be HUGE and signal Apple's next disruption with mobile payment processing. Plus, there will be less reliance on usernames and passwords. bgr.com/2013/04/12/iphone-5s-fingerprint-scanner-analysis-433410/Brian White continues to claim a $400 iPhone "mini" is on the way. Could he have been misdirected from Apple's discount program? Me thinks so.
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Post by sponge on Apr 12, 2013 7:21:41 GMT -8
If Apple runs late with the next iPhone, then any delays will be excusable if it has a fingerprint I.D. technology on board. It will be HUGE and signal Apple's next disruption with mobile payment processing. Plus, there will be less reliance on usernames and passwords. bgr.com/2013/04/12/iphone-5s-fingerprint-scanner-analysis-433410/It is a summary of what Brian White said in his note to investors. Nothing new. My law enforcement showed me the latest mobile fingerprint scanner. It is huge. I think Apple will need one more year. I expect it in 2014. There will be plenty of folks ready to buy a 5S with latest software, faster processor, faster camera, and maybe longer battery.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 12, 2013 7:28:11 GMT -8
If Apple runs late with the next iPhone, then any delays will be excusable if it has a fingerprint I.D. technology on board. It will be HUGE and signal Apple's next disruption with mobile payment processing. Plus, there will be less reliance on usernames and passwords. bgr.com/2013/04/12/iphone-5s-fingerprint-scanner-analysis-433410/It is a summary of what Brian White said in his note to investors. Nothing new. My law enforcement showed me the latest mobile fingerprint scanner. It is huge. I think Apple will need one more year. I expect it in 2014. There will be plenty of folks ready to buy a 5S with latest software, faster processor, faster camera, and maybe longer battery. You had better hope, for the sake of avoiding margin calls, the fingerprint sensor is in the next iPhone. Siri carried the 4s. Apple needs something past a faster chip to carry any 5s. I'm very serious about this.
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Post by sponge on Apr 12, 2013 7:44:40 GMT -8
Mercel
Look how many are still using 4 and 4S. Apple does not need major changes to maintain solid sales.
Many complained that the 4S did not have LTE but it still sold well. Fingerprint authentication for mobile payments will be huge but it will take a few years. Not enough infrastructure to make it a must have device.
Waiting one more year won't kill us.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 12, 2013 7:48:16 GMT -8
Mercel Look how many are still using 4 and 4S. Apple does not need major changes to maintain solid sales. Many complained that the 4S did not have LTE but it still sold well. Fingerprint authentication for mobile payments will be huge but it will take a few years. Not enough infrastructure to make it a must have device. Waiting one more year won't kill us. The competitive environment today is far different today. Apple can't just put an "s' on the new iPhone and expect "4s" results. I don't see it.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 12, 2013 7:51:41 GMT -8
For those who are unfamiliar with this cycle of rise and fall of AAPL predictably within the week, starting with the Friday before, Travis has a nice chart on price behavior.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 12, 2013 7:52:18 GMT -8
Ok, I'm done. Will the last person leaving the building turn off the lights?
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Post by Deleted on Apr 12, 2013 7:55:29 GMT -8
My law enforcement showed me the latest mobile fingerprint scanner. It shouldn't be surprising that a government version of anything is going to be 10X larger/heavier than a civilian version, especially when you consider Apple's implementation will be based on latest available technology (we don't know the age of the tech in the government version), and we don't know the total functionality of the government model. For instance, does it just record a fingerprint, or does it communicate directly with an NCIC or CIS database for instant ID of an individual? Government specs for items used in the field often times require them being "ruggedized" (a totally useless requirement). Yes it needs specialized hardware, but essentially fingerprint reading is a software function. Apple bought a leading developer of that technology a while back. IIRC they developed for the government.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 12, 2013 8:13:14 GMT -8
Mercel Look how many are still using 4 and 4S. Apple does not need major changes to maintain solid sales. Many complained that the 4S did not have LTE but it still sold well. Fingerprint authentication for mobile payments will be huge but it will take a few years. Not enough infrastructure to make it a must have device. Waiting one more year won't kill us. The competitive environment today is far different today. Apple can't just put an "s' on the new iPhone and expect "4s" results. I don't see it. Back in the day (pre-iPod), we used to have discussions like this on the AOL Apple Board. It went kinda like this, "the new Macs are only 25% faster. That's not enough". That was from a pro creative that bought new hardware with each upgrade cycle (screen name macmaven aka Ron Logee). I pointed out that the masses bought on a rough 3 year cycle, and compounding 25% incremental improvements doubled the performance over 3 yo Macs. I think the same phenomena will occur with the next iPhone. Buyers of the next iPhone will be owners of the 4S and the 4, not the 5 (at least not in significant quantity). I think just getting the larger 4" screen would be enough to motivate this segment of iPhone owners. LTE would be another. The combination of 4 and 4S owners upgrading to the next iPhone should result in another record December quarter. Now should Apple introduce fingerprint ID/security I think sales will be block buster.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 12, 2013 8:26:49 GMT -8
Where to begin.
Well, first: Rez, IGP aside, the _MBA_ is awesome. I'm sure the 15" rMBP is just about the sweet spot for power users, with that delicate tradeoff between gfx power (they could've gone up some from the 650M) and battery life.
Second: 5S needs a tentpole feature. Fingerprint to unlock would be pretty sweet...though the Atrix was one of the first/earliest smartphones to mkt with the concept (nothing new), Apple can one-up it with quick fingerprint-scan-to-buy-or-login-or-approve and stuff (API). Siri and Maps non-beta won't be enough. I'm confident Apple will deliver.
Far as AAPL...with the pin shenanigans again (sorry jeffi! ;D), maybe I shoulda tried catching butterflies. Oh well. Not sure if over 430 is a particularly great close.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 12, 2013 8:48:10 GMT -8
Not sure if over 430 is a particularly great close. After Closing this week's position (AAPL at $433.90) with a smaller gain than i hoped for, I opened positions for next week. $430/$435 BCS and a 50% smaller position in $435/$440 BCS (2 different accounts). Historically AAPL experiences about a 3% run up pre-earnings. Looking at OI, that seems to be current expectations.
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Post by Lstream on Apr 12, 2013 9:11:57 GMT -8
My law enforcement showed me the latest mobile fingerprint scanner. It shouldn't be surprising that a government version of anything is going to be 10X larger/heavier than a civilian version, especially when you consider Apple's implementation will be based on latest available technology (we don't know the age of the tech in the government version), and we don't know the total functionality of the government model. For instance, does it just record a fingerprint, or does it communicate directly with an NCIC or CIS database for instant ID of an individual? Government specs for items used in the field often times require them being "ruggedized" (a totally useless requirement). Yes it needs specialized hardware, but essentially fingerprint reading is a software function. Apple bought a leading developer of that technology a while back. IIRC they developed for the government. The original post was just more disinformation. Apple could put a sensor in a cell phone now if it wanted to. Law enforcement form factors are completely irrelevant. www.digitaltrends.com/mobile/crucialtec-biometric-fingerprint-scanner-10-fingers-hands-on/
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Post by phoebear611 on Apr 12, 2013 9:18:14 GMT -8
FYI - Don't think this means anything for the stock but who the hell knows anymore. Seems that Brian Williams is interviewing Laurene Jobs on Rock Center tonight.
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Post by terps530 on Apr 12, 2013 9:29:22 GMT -8
For those who are unfamiliar with this cycle of rise and fall of AAPL predictably within the week, starting with the Friday before, Travis has a nice chart on price behavior. related to this, i just looked at every single Friday-->Monday in 2013 and found something pretty surprising. Every Single Monday in 2013, the low of the day on Monday is below the close on the previous Friday. 14 weekends so far that this has happened. Conclusions from this: When I am sitting here at the end of the week thinking the run will start next week, I should wait until Monday for my opportunity to buy below the Friday close. Especially if that buy is an option, because some premium will be lost due to the time decay, resulting in a cheaper purchase price.
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Post by prazan on Apr 12, 2013 9:38:30 GMT -8
It shouldn't be surprising that a government version of anything is going to be 10X larger/heavier than a civilian version, especially when you consider Apple's implementation will be based on latest available technology (we don't know the age of the tech in the government version), and we don't know the total functionality of the government model. For instance, does it just record a fingerprint, or does it communicate directly with an NCIC or CIS database for instant ID of an individual? Government specs for items used in the field often times require them being "ruggedized" (a totally useless requirement). Yes it needs specialized hardware, but essentially fingerprint reading is a software function. Apple bought a leading developer of that technology a while back. IIRC they developed for the government. The original post was just more disinformation. Apple could put a sensor in a cell phone now if it wanted to. Law enforcement form factors are completely irrelevant. www.digitaltrends.com/mobile/crucialtec-biometric-fingerprint-scanner-10-fingers-hands-on/Thanks, LStream! I always appreciate your posts to the board, particularly on matters of technology.
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Post by sponge on Apr 12, 2013 10:17:12 GMT -8
Lstream
Do me a favor go back to Braeburn. They need your smart ass commentary there and you can hang out with those who have no idea how Apple operates.
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