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Post by lovemyipad on Apr 13, 2013 11:35:57 GMT -8
If Apple dips below Friday, I'm a buyer. Still debating what, exactly. Non-advice advice: a dip that maintains above 426.67. Below that level = heightened risk of another dip that keeps dipping. Think of the rope in Tug of War. Just for you... AAPL ONE-HOUR CHART:
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Post by Deleted on Apr 13, 2013 13:02:30 GMT -8
If Apple dips below Friday, I'm a buyer. Still debating what, exactly. Non-advice advice: a dip that maintains above 426.67. Below that level = heightened risk of another dip that keeps dipping. Think of the rope in Tug of War. Just for you... AAPL ONE-HOUR CHART: If it dips below $426, I'll buy YOU some. ;D North Korea is in the news, so who knows? That hermit nation led by a 29 year old Pugsley isn't dumb enough to lose the final Korean war. Or is he?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 13, 2013 13:09:22 GMT -8
Not that it "matters" with Mac probably being "only" slightly above 10% of fiscal Q2 revs, but I agree. I was a bit more conservative in projecting a little less than 3.9M units. iMac's probably a plus, but not sure about the other desktops, and while I didn't think factor it in at the time I made the estimate, it's not clear how well the collective rMBP line is doing. Btw, that's also playing into my iPad unit trends thinking. If Macs really are slowing down (even if temporarily or for whatever reason), there's basically iPad to pick up the slack, OR there's concern about the health of the entire more-than-smartphone computing industry. So if Mac is meh but iPad is also slowing down "too much" at this early stage in the game...let's just say it's harder for Apple to put a positive spin on that for WS (even as I think the company put itself on an IBM-or-better level of sustainability long ago and is still very nicely on that path).
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Post by Deleted on Apr 13, 2013 13:17:34 GMT -8
Not that it "matters" with Mac probably being "only" slightly above 10% of fiscal Q2 revs, but I agree. I was a bit more conservative in projecting a little less than 3.9M units. iMac's probably a plus, but not sure about the other desktops, and while I didn't think of it at the time I made the estimate, it's not clear how well the collective rMBP line is doing. For myself, I lowered the margin on Macs because there's a large Apple support thread going re: image persistence with LG screens. It's gone way past ridiculous IMO. Samsung and LG are supplying screens for rMBP and the preferred screen is Samsung. I'm sure the screen manufacturer is taking most of the hit, but there has to be a cost to Apple in the margin. Frankly, I've seen both screens on the rMBP at the Apple store (by running the Terminal command) and I prefer the LG. But the level of anal retentiveness is on full display on the support thread.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 13, 2013 13:26:09 GMT -8
That's very product-line specific. I can't say I go into that level of detail for GM, but keep it up! As far as image persistence though, I wasn't aware of the support thread, and it hasn't made the "MacRumors news list" or on any other sites I follow, not after the early days. Apple hasn't even seen fit to make its usual "a small percentage of X buildout may be affected" PR explanation. Also, yes lotsa replies, but multiple users also post multiple times in that thread. So, probably a problem, but maybe not that common? Even a 2% failure rate (which would be damn high, and probably _would_ provoke a response/acknowledgement from Apple) just cuts into Apple's ridiculous warranty accruals, right? For the record, I may like my Apple stuff but I'm no apologist when stuff doesn't work. My iPad 3 story, after all.
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Post by lovemyipad on Apr 13, 2013 13:51:39 GMT -8
If it dips below $426, I'll buy YOU some. ;D You buy me AAPLs, and I'll buy you puts. Deal.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 13, 2013 14:03:30 GMT -8
WoW. I'm feeling pretty good about my estimate. I took past quarterly performance, saw it hovering around 4.0 million units, then deducted 5% for industry sales slowdown, then added the 700,000 that PO said they lost in the December quarter. 4.5 million units for the March quarter. That's not that far off from the median of responding analysts (4.1 million). Not enough anyway to materially impact results (7¢ EPS?)
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Apr 13, 2013 14:10:56 GMT -8
Couldn't resist. Visited two T-Mobile stores to find out about these new 'iPhone' thingys they are selling.
Salespeople friendly and excited about the new product. No salespeople look like the pink clad spokesmodel on the TV. Thus, I was disappointed... But bucked up and did my job. Dealt with a guy in chinos and a three day beard. Reminded me of Mercel after a weekend in Vegas.
Anyway, chino dude reports iPhone sales going well. White selling better than black, lowest gig most in demand. The 99 dollar no contract payment plan popular so far...younger folks mostly. Want the iPhone but now get terms that seem to work for them. Trading in Androids and blackberries, if they can, iPhones in stock but sales 'brisk'.
Second store was similar. No spokesmodel. No Mercel lookalike. Nice lady told me she and every staffer had bought iPhones now that they could. Said sales Friday were better than today but product moving. I asked if she felt it would be their best selling phone over time and she said no doubt. It's not plastic. It's classy. It's what people will want. Wishes it came in pink.
On to Dunkin Doughnuts
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Post by Deleted on Apr 13, 2013 14:11:16 GMT -8
Non-advice advice: a dip that maintains above 426.67. Below that level = heightened risk of another dip that keeps dipping. Think of the rope in Tug of War. Just for you... AAPL ONE-HOUR CHART: If it dips below $426, I'll buy YOU some. ;D North Korea is in the news, so who knows? That hermit nation led by a 29 year old Pugsley isn't dumb enough to lose the final Korean war. Or is he? Look who his teacher was. N Korea has been bankrupt for decades, it was useful for China to keep the rabid dog around just to keep the west off balance. But I think China's self interests are diverging away from the N Korean mentality. Going to far will leave the child with zero friends, economically and militarily. How loyal is the military that props you up, when they can't feed their family?
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Post by Deleted on Apr 13, 2013 14:13:13 GMT -8
Couldn't resist. Visited two T-Mobile stores to find out about these new 'iPhone' thingys they are selling. Salespeople friendly and excited about the new product. No salespeople look like the pink clad spokesmodel on the TV. Thus, I was disappointed... But bucked up and did my job. Dealt with a guy in chinos and a three day beard. Reminded me of Mercel after a weekend in Vegas. Anyway, chino dude reports iPhone sales going well. White selling better than black, lowest gig most in demand. The 99 dollar no contract payment plan popular so far...younger folks mostly. Want the iPhone but now get terms that seem to work for them. Trading in Androids and blackberries, if they can, iPhones in stock but sales 'brisk'. Second store was similar. No spokesmodel. No Mercel lookalike. Nice lady told me she and every staffer had bought iPhones now that they could. Said sales Friday were better than today but product moving. I asked if she felt it would be their best selling phone over time and she said no doubt. It's not plastic. It's classy. It's what people will want. Wishes it came in pink. On to Dunkin Doughnuts Thanks Red.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 13, 2013 14:25:00 GMT -8
Couldn't resist. Visited two T-Mobile stores to find out about these new 'iPhone' thingys they are selling. Salespeople friendly and excited about the new product. No salespeople look like the pink clad spokesmodel on the TV. Thus, I was disappointed... But bucked up and did my job. Dealt with a guy in chinos and a three day beard. Reminded me of Mercel after a weekend in Vegas. Anyway, chino dude reports iPhone sales going well. White selling better than black, lowest gig most in demand. The 99 dollar no contract payment plan popular so far...younger folks mostly. Want the iPhone but now get terms that seem to work for them. Trading in Androids and blackberries, if they can, iPhones in stock but sales 'brisk'. Second store was similar. No spokesmodel. No Mercel lookalike. Nice lady told me she and every staffer had bought iPhones now that they could. Said sales Friday were better than today but product moving. I asked if she felt it would be their best selling phone over time and she said no doubt. It's not plastic. It's classy. It's what people will want. Wishes it came in pink. On to Dunkin Doughnuts Nice. The reason you didn't see the spokesmodel is because she was with me. ;D
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 13, 2013 14:27:25 GMT -8
Nice lady told me she and every staffer had bought iPhones now that they could. Said sales Friday were better than today but product moving. I asked if she felt it would be their best selling phone over time and she said no doubt. It's not plastic. It's classy. It's what people will want. Wishes it came in pink. Resistance was futile. The carriers have been assimilated.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 13, 2013 14:27:25 GMT -8
Also, yes lotsa replies, but multiple users also post multiple times in that thread. So, probably a problem, but maybe not that common? Even a 2% failure rate (which would be damn high, and probably _would_ provoke a response/acknowledgement from Apple) just cuts into Apple's ridiculous warranty accruals, right? Yes, but the warranty accruals get adjusted prospectively (and to expense). 9 to 5 Mac has been running news on it at the top (still is, labeled ''MacBook Pro Retina: Problems in every dimension" -- or something like it)
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Post by Deleted on Apr 13, 2013 14:28:12 GMT -8
If it dips below $426, I'll buy YOU some. ;D You buy me AAPLs, and I'll buy you puts. Deal. Deal. But I'm telling you, I'm starting to feel porky about FQ2 2013 earnings.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Apr 13, 2013 14:31:05 GMT -8
What does porky mean?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 13, 2013 14:33:23 GMT -8
Mercel -
See, but there's that - "These widespread issues have received limited coverage in the press."
How very un-like the press to NOT jump on Apple for every little thing, real or imagined, y'know? It's not on the Gruber/Ritchie/Dalrymple radar either from what I can tell.
So - probably a problem, but the scale is another matter. Let's assume 5% of all rMBPs are hosed (at that failure rate, there'd be a recall program and many more class actions), Apple has to eat half the ASP (let's set ASP at $2100), and rMBPs are 25% of all Macs sold. All quite aggressive metrics.
Running some napkin maths - 1M Macs * $2100 ASP * .5 * .05 = revenue impact of $52.5M (or $52.5M worth of "Bad Apples"), which is lower than I expected - around 1% of Apple's estimated Mac revenue for the quarter.
I'm not seeing any measurable impact on overall GM, and maybe just a blip on Mac GM, especially considering warranty accruals and Apple probably not suffering anywhere near a 50% loss of the ASP on just the display component after returning the bad displays to sender.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 13, 2013 14:47:57 GMT -8
As in GOOD. Mav: It's not THAT big a number, I agree. But I still adjusted for it, since I strive for some degree of accuracy with margin. ;D The warranty repair for each one (as disclosed to the customer) is $700. One also needs to consider how many customers have put this purchase on hold due to the perception issue. I own a rMBP and it's the best computer I've ever owned (next to my current gen. MBA).
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 13, 2013 14:52:18 GMT -8
So wait, you had a screen issue too? Warranty repair estimates are ridiculously overinflated. GM on THAT stuff can probably run up to 75%. ;D Ah, the peace of mind that is AppleCare. Least I can get it cheaper on my iMac with some deal surfing. I'm well aware that AppleCare is a much bigger expense concern for laptop users. I like to keep things simple. The Mental Blender(tm) approach to estimation accounts for as much as I can possibly think of. Including "frozen sales" out of fear of issues with first-gen products, as the rMBPs are. Like I said, the _lack_ of media coverage is telling in my book. Then again, so is your picking up on this stuff, and I mean that in a good way. Bulls (and even Bull-plusses) don't have to capitulate, they just have to get smarter.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 13, 2013 16:40:19 GMT -8
Q2 Mac numbers are perhaps the hardest item to predict this quarter, I wasn't surprised to find my own 4.5 million units estimate near the top of analyst expectations.
On the one hand there was a huge backlog of iMacs pulled from last quarter that were guaranteed bonus sales this quarter, but then we had the just released figures confirming the massive slowdown in PC sales (I perhaps would have lowered my estimate to 4.3 million units).
And then what to make of the mid February MacBook price cuts? The retina MacBooks saw cuts of $200-300 in price, and the 15" models got spec bumped. The top end MacBook Air 13" also saw a $100 price drop.
What to make of that? Undoubtedly the retina displays must have gotten cheaper to build enabling price reductions, but demand mustn't have been overwhelming if Apple dropped the price.
On the other hand, out of my 6 closest friends - 3 of them bought Macs last quarter (2 x 13" Airs, 1 x iMac) - only anecdotal of course, but maybe widespread.
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Post by Mav on Apr 13, 2013 17:08:52 GMT -8
Well, yes, not overwhelming demand, but I think Apple planned for this. It's a Mac but also a truck after all.
Same specs, maybe a price drop over time. New specs, same price. That tends to be Apple's MO.
Early adopter "taxes" happen. Just ask any iPad 3 owner. But early adopters did know what they were getting, and they've had months of use/productivity over the bargain shoppers, so tradeoffs.
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Post by cbingle on Apr 13, 2013 17:59:44 GMT -8
IPad 3 is not early adopter...IPad 1 is. STMF
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Post by Deleted on Apr 13, 2013 18:13:03 GMT -8
A 4K TV for $1299? www.engadget.com/2013/04/12/seiki-50-inch-4k-1300/I'm sure the TV in this article is probably a piece of crap, but the longer apple takes to enter the HDTV market - the more likely it is that we will see a 4k unit from them - 12 months from now 4k units will probably be standard at the premium end of the market.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 13, 2013 18:21:10 GMT -8
Not without content. I remember reading a rather optimistic assessment that 4k video only needs <50% or so less bandwidth because of compression, but I'm not so sure about that.
Can today's cable infrastructure handle 4K, much less Internet? And why 4K if even Blu-Ray isn't exactly taking the world by storm? (More like default, since Blu-Ray players run under $100 to start.).
Interestingly, I guess whatever "HDMI 1.4" is supports 4K. Need the "high speed" labels on those cables though. Monoprice to the rescue! ;D
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Post by mace on Apr 13, 2013 18:46:14 GMT -8
Some nations e.g. Singapore, are laying fiber optics directly to homes guaranteeing minimum download speed of 100 Mbps.
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Post by sponge on Apr 13, 2013 19:27:38 GMT -8
I am at Target. My daughter badly wants the latest iPod touch. She will have to wait until Sept. I looked on how they market the 4S vs 5. If you walked in knowing little about iPhones, the 4S is a no brainier for half the price.
Also they are still selling the iPad 2 with a $30 Target gift card. They sell well. The Retina is still a big hit. Clerk said on certain weeks the Retina outsells the Mini.
He said on an average day they sell 2-5 total iPads. They are running a special for $229 on the iPad Mini. He said the discount came from Apple not Target. He said they get half the supply in the Mini vs regular iPad. Lots of traffic around the Apple display. Limited number of Minis in stock. Their security was counting units. Over at the SB Target yesterday they had the glass covered that showed inventory.
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Post by Mav on Apr 13, 2013 19:39:03 GMT -8
Some nations e.g. Singapore, are laying fiber optics directly to homes guaranteeing minimum download speed of 100 Mbps. Singapore is smaller (lower cost) and probably more forward-looking in terms of broadband infrastructure. 100Mbps/12ishMBps here in the US? Ubiquitous? Anytime soon? Not holding my breath.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 13, 2013 20:04:41 GMT -8
Not without content. I remember reading a rather optimistic assessment that 4k video only needs <50% or so less bandwidth because of compression, but I'm not so sure about that. Can today's cable infrastructure handle 4K, much less Internet? And why 4K if even Blu-Ray isn't exactly taking the world by storm? (More like default, since Blu-Ray players run under $100 to start.). Interestingly, I guess whatever "HDMI 1.4" is supports 4K. Need the "high speed" labels on those cables though. Monoprice to the rescue! ;D I'm thinking at first 4k content on 4k tvs is going to be much more likely locally generated (by the TV itself or an attached device.) in the form of Apps rather than video, and of course high res photos & artwork will look spectacular on a wall mounted TV. In terms of Apps generating 4K content, there is a variety of software that will benefit - starting at the most basic level of text rendering and at the opposite end there are a slew of high end PCs that can already output 4k content (games, high end design apps etc) - which currently output to multiple monitors. Sonys forthcoming playstation 4 also has 4K output, but it is hard to know what exactly it will be able to do. And then their will undoubtedly be hybrid video apps, where you are streaming a regular HD image at 1080p but with the option to view that in a reduced window at full resolution while extra data feeds companion info - most likely live sports will be first to utilise this, like they have already with iOS apps. I look at a 4K Apple TV more like my 2k resolution iPad 3, the benefit of 2k resolution on the iPad is not so I can watch 2K videos (can this actually be done?), the benefit is instead for everything else other than video. Of course current TVs have almost no other purpose than to watch video - but I have far higher expectations for the amount of uses in a future Apple HDTV. (On a purely geeky level I would love to be able to show a digital camera feed on a 4K TV of the view from my apartment as if the TV was actually a window - I tried it with my current TV, but the illusion breaks down immediately at 1080p).
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Post by Deleted on Apr 13, 2013 20:15:15 GMT -8
I am at Target. My daughter badly wants the latest iPod touch. She will have to wait until Sept. I looked on how they market the 4S vs 5. If you walked in knowing little about iPhones, the 4S is a no brainier for half the price. Also they are still selling the iPad 2 with a $30 Target gift card. They sell well. The Retina is still a big hit. Clerk said on certain weeks the Retina outsells the Mini. He said on an average day they sell 2-5 total iPads. They are running a special for $229 on the iPad Mini. He said the discount came from Apple not Target. He said they get half the supply in the Mini vs regular iPad. Lots of traffic around the Apple display. Limited number of Minis in stock. Their security was counting units. Over at the SB Target yesterday they had the glass covered that showed inventory. Woh, slow down! $229 iPad Mini? I presume that's a typo and you mean $299?Interesting they said it is a Apple generated discount - anyone else got confirmation on this? Don't be a meanie sponge! Buy your daughter the iPod touch! (Isn't apple on a 2 year cycle for this anyway? There was a 2 year gap between the 4th and 5th generations).
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Post by sponge on Apr 13, 2013 20:24:02 GMT -8
I am at Target. My daughter badly wants the latest iPod touch. She will have to wait until Sept. I looked on how they market the 4S vs 5. If you walked in knowing little about iPhones, the 4S is a no brainier for half the price. Also they are still selling the iPad 2 with a $30 Target gift card. They sell well. The Retina is still a big hit. Clerk said on certain weeks the Retina outsells the Mini. He said on an average day they sell 2-5 total iPads. They are running a special for $229 on the iPad Mini. He said the discount came from Apple not Target. He said they get half the supply in the Mini vs regular iPad. Lots of traffic around the Apple display. Limited number of Minis in stock. Their security was counting units. Over at the SB Target yesterday they had the glass covered that showed inventory. Woh, slow down! $229 iPad Mini? I presume that's a typo and you mean $299?Interesting they said it is a Apple generated discount - anyone else got confirmation on this? Don't be a meanie sponge! Buy your daughter the iPod touch! (Isn't apple on a 2 year cycle for this anyway? There was a 2 year gap between the 4th and 5th generations). Yes that was a typo on my iPhone $299 sale is from 4/7-4/13. She got the 4th generation last June. It is all cracked, but she plays with it all the time. She needs to be patient. I need to save money for a Mini with Retina Display for the wife, iPhone 5S for me, and maybe a new iPad for me as well when it comes out. ;D
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Post by Mav on Apr 13, 2013 23:49:01 GMT -8
burgess, you're thinking too much like a techie. The first thing most TV buyers will say when they consider getting a newfangled, new-age TV - "will it work with my cable TV provider?" OR, "can I get all my favorite shows at this awesome new resolution?" Otherwise, why get a ultra-NONportable living room appliance when the ol' HDTV still gets the job done? The pricing of 4K sets for the first couple years should prevent all but the earliest adopters and those who still HAVE to have their console games on the latest sets from diving in. That's money that can go towards a smartphone/pocketable, tablet, computing truck, etc. I'd like Apple to really mix it up by being among the first to market AND with a mindblowing 4K resolution to start, but more is needed for the 4K option than I can see right now (both in content and in tech specs, as in an A-series chip that can support close to triple the pixels that the A5X/A6X can, not a trivial matter). We'll see if the A7 SoC or other new retina-screened Apple stuff this year (if any) can't change my mind. Meanwhile, the TV market isn't one that competitors can really use to damage Apple (being so unbelievably fragmented), nor have the stars aligned for 4K TV in general far as I can tell (I doubt the content providers are significantly more willing to pick Google over Apple). Apple can take its time with this if it needs to.
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