Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 24, 2012 4:48:49 GMT -8
Scott Redler put out a tweet that it is 5 mln plus the initial 2 mln -- so 7 mln Lots of confusion out there folks - I don't know what is correct or incorrect at this point More than 5 million is the number. Not 7 million.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 24, 2012 4:52:34 GMT -8
I'm buying Octobers at the Open. Between the news of the DORMITORY brawl at a Foxconn plant, and Apple's first weekend sales AAPL is going to drop like a rock.
But it will only be temporary. Any damage at Foxconn will be in the dormitory, the issues that caused the brawl will be found not Apple product related, and the enormity of first weekend sales will sink in.
Yard Sale prices at the Open my friends.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 24, 2012 4:53:28 GMT -8
Why release the number at all? They could have just waited for the earnings report and given us the 20+ million iPhone number for the quarter.
They should have known Wall Street was expecting more - a 20% increase over last year when the rollout was supposedly much bigger is not very impressive.
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Post by rob_london on Sept 24, 2012 4:59:56 GMT -8
It is worth remembering that the iPhone 4 "only" sold 1.7 million units in its launch weekend.
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Post by rob_london on Sept 24, 2012 5:04:23 GMT -8
Crunching the numbers, Horace Dediu has tweeted that the w/e sales rate for iPhone 5 is approximately the same as for the iPhone 4S, when normalised for the number of countries.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 24, 2012 5:10:26 GMT -8
I'm having a severe problem with stated number. All of my checks indicated sales much greater than 4S launch weekend, to the tune of about double. Granted I don't have the resources to check them all, but given the larger scope of the launch I have to feel that the stated number is being sandbagged.
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Post by mbeauch on Sept 24, 2012 5:13:58 GMT -8
Why release the number at all? They could have just waited for the earnings report and given us the 20+ million iPhone number for the quarter. They should have known Wall Street was expecting more - a 20% increase over last year when the rollout was supposedly much bigger is not very impressive. As I sit here and know that I am going to lose a fortune today. I remember the sick feeling I had Friday when I did not close out the naked calls I had for Oct. (Coulda, woulda, shoulda) 5 million is a very good number, just not a great number. What really gets me is the trend. Have not looked yet, but I imagine this will break the uptrend.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 24, 2012 5:14:46 GMT -8
Crunching the numbers, Horace Dediu has tweeted that the w/e sales rate for iPhone 5 is approximately the same as for the iPhone 4S, when normalised for the number of countries. Still, the scope of the 5's launch was a great deal larger than 20% over the 4S, and anticipation levels for the 4S weren't near as high as for the 5. Guidance for the December quarter will be extraordinary, should Apple be intentionally scheduling deliveries to be counted then.
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Post by artman1033 on Sept 24, 2012 5:15:03 GMT -8
the news must have been newsworthy:
25 Members, 41 Guests, 2 Invisible Users. Most users online was 89, Today at 7:59am
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Post by phoebear611 on Sept 24, 2012 5:17:37 GMT -8
On CNBC - numbers being clarified - if you ordered a phone and even if it is shipped but YOU HAVE NOT SIGNED FOR IT because it hasn't been delivered -IT IS NOT INCLUDED IN THE NUMBERS GIVEN.
this was put out by Brian Marshall at ISI
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Post by elmar on Sept 24, 2012 5:20:28 GMT -8
Just checked the German AppleStore: Delivery is now up to 3-4 weeks, so we can safely assume that they are selling as many iPhone 5 as they can build.
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Post by ccs on Sept 24, 2012 5:22:34 GMT -8
$685 PM Open very well could be the low of the day after WS digests the news
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Post by mbeauch on Sept 24, 2012 5:24:31 GMT -8
the news must have been newsworthy: 25 Members, 41 Guests, 2 Invisible Users. Most users online was 89, Today at 7:59am Artman, lots of people probably checked here before going to the news feeds. It flashed on my ipad from CNBC and I knew we were going to have a bad day. Going back to the July low and drawing a line to the Sept low the trend line shows support in the 680 area. I hope we hold the 683 level.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
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Post by JDSoCal on Sept 24, 2012 5:25:08 GMT -8
On CNBC - numbers being clarified - if you ordered a phone and even if it is shipped but YOU HAVE NOT SIGNED FOR IT because it hasn't been delivered -IT IS NOT INCLUDED IN THE NUMBERS GIVEN. this was put out by Brian Marshall at ISI That's the thing - there are millions in the shipping process not yet delivered that Apple is not counting. The impending dip is a huge opportunity IMO.
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Post by Big Al on Sept 24, 2012 5:26:21 GMT -8
So they announced 2 million pre-orders which are not sales? If they do this the way you and Mav think they will they should release a set of instructions to explain cause it makes zero sense. I think they are doing it the following way... They register first all the iPhones that they have sold (over the internet, the stores, the carriers, resellers, etc). And with sold I do mean a more "relaxed" definition of the one used for financial reporting: Somebody has purchased/pre-ordered it, no matter whether it is shipped or not. I think that Apple has enough data from previous product launches on how many of those purchases might be cancelled to predict what might be the final sales number. For example, let's say that we have 4 million pre-oders, and another 5.3 million of orders & direct sales after launch. They will deduct the 9.7 million by the usual rate of cancellations (let's take 10%), which will lead to a sales number of 8.4 million. To be conservative Apple would then announce "weekend sales top 8 million iPhones". So apparently they do only count the ones delivered.
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Post by drewbear on Sept 24, 2012 5:26:42 GMT -8
Analysts were estimating additional sales of 6-10 million iPhones for FQ4, which does not end for a few more days. How is "more than 5 million" sold in the first 3 days considered a miss? I also think many people are underestimating the number of $0 subsidized iPhone 4 units will be sold this quarter.
I don't know if the buying opportunity will be limited to today, but I will be "shopping" Oct. or Nov. calls. Earnings and the possible iPad mini announcement will make October a very interesting month.
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Post by rickag on Sept 24, 2012 5:27:42 GMT -8
While 5 million may disappoint, remember in Apple's press release Tim Cook mentions they sold out their initial supply. This with the fact they are rolling out in more countries means, at least to me, Apple held out more iPhones for the next 22 countries' rollouts.
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Post by tradermac on Sept 24, 2012 5:28:07 GMT -8
I don't get it. Once it's shipped, your credit card is charged so that should count as a sale. Never heard of a package signed for to officially be counted as a sale.
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Post by greedynoob on Sept 24, 2012 5:28:16 GMT -8
On CNBC - numbers being clarified - if you ordered a phone and even if it is shipped but YOU HAVE NOT SIGNED FOR IT because it hasn't been delivered -IT IS NOT INCLUDED IN THE NUMBERS GIVEN. this was put out by Brian Marshall at ISI Really? That seems like a stupid way to report 1st weekend sales, because it guarantees that most online orders will not be counter. Also, it would be really really stupid for Apple to release numbers using a different method for counting than prior years with no clarification at all in the release. So maybe PR fubar'd this, but how reliable is Brian Marshall?
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Post by The Big Toe on Sept 24, 2012 5:30:45 GMT -8
Ouch... but should only be temporary.
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Post by mbeauch on Sept 24, 2012 5:32:49 GMT -8
Analysts were estimating additional sales of 6-10 million iPhones for FQ4, which does not end for a few more days. How is "more than 5 million" sold in the first 3 days considered a miss? I also think many people are underestimating the number of $0 subsidized iPhone 4 units will be sold this quarter. I don't know if the buying opportunity will be limited to today, but I will be "shopping" Oct. or Nov. calls. Earnings and the possible iPad mini announcement will make October a very interesting month. Because people lost their minds (Gene Munster is guilty also) of getting caught up in the frenzy, and raising expectations. Does not matter that 2 additional countries were added, processing 5 million transaction is a heck of a lot of transactions. NAS is getting killed, AAPL is pulling everyone down. Lets hope we get a nice bounce.
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Post by artman1033 on Sept 24, 2012 5:32:54 GMT -8
from Horace via tweet:
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Post by artman1033 on Sept 24, 2012 5:36:05 GMT -8
current condition:
27 Members, 51 Guests, 1 Invisible User. Most users online was 98, Today at 8:29am
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Post by adamthompson32 on Sept 24, 2012 5:36:57 GMT -8
On CNBC - numbers being clarified - if you ordered a phone and even if it is shipped but YOU HAVE NOT SIGNED FOR IT because it hasn't been delivered -IT IS NOT INCLUDED IN THE NUMBERS GIVEN. this was put out by Brian Marshall at ISI I'm fairly certain this isn't accurate. I believe we've been through this quite a few times and once it ships, ownership has been transferred from Apple and thus it counts as a sale. I think Turley Muller has been all over this for a long time on AFB 1 and elsewhere. Someone please correct me if I am wrong. What is included: Shipments to end customers Shipments to 3rd party retailers (e.g. Best Buy) What is not included: Pre-orders that have not shipped
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Post by roni on Sept 24, 2012 5:37:27 GMT -8
Opened Jan 2013 $680 position Bought some shares pre-market
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Post by ccs on Sept 24, 2012 5:39:55 GMT -8
Bought some OCT 700's at open - working out well.... so far
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Post by nkmho on Sept 24, 2012 5:40:12 GMT -8
BTFD'd right near the open.
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Post by artman1033 on Sept 24, 2012 5:40:56 GMT -8
if you Google: LOVEY'S PLACE AAPL; the first reply website to appear is this one!
;D ;D
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Post by adamthompson32 on Sept 24, 2012 5:41:24 GMT -8
It is worth noting that we have very roughly 20% more sales this year vs. last and very roughly 20% more countries this go round vs. last I think. 5MM+ this time vs. 4MM+ last time. 9 countries this time vs. 7 last time? I'm not certain on the country count. This may suggest that it is somehow logistically impossible to ship more phones in any given country. Perhaps Apple needs to use FedEx and UPS if that is the bottleneck? Perhaps Apple somehow can't logistically handle more for some internal reason? I don't know the cause but it looks like the only gain is due to additional countries and we know demand was greater than that at least here in the U.S. because some pre-order shipment delivery dates slipped almost right out of the gate on launch day. Next year if we get 20% more launch countries, we should assume 20% more sales, give or take.
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Post by mbeauch on Sept 24, 2012 5:53:34 GMT -8
Be careful people, pretty sure this is just a bounce. (and not a good one)
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