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Post by coolbreeze on Sept 24, 2012 5:54:16 GMT -8
It is worth noting that we have roughly 20% more countries this go round vs. last I think. 9 countries this time vs. 7 last time? I'm not certain on that. This may suggest that it is somehow logistically impossible to ship more phones in any given country. Perhaps Apple needs to use FedEx and UPS if that is the bottleneck? Perhaps Apple somehow can't do logistically handle it for some internal reason? I don't know the cause but it looks like the only gain is due to additional countries and we know demand was greater than that at least here in the U.S. because some pre-order shipment delivery dates slipped almost right out of the gate on launch day. Next year if we get 20% more launch countries, we should assume 20% more sales, give or take. I agree there might be some logistical issues involved. Apple already uses both FedEx and UPS. (My iPhone which arrived Friday was shipped UPS (not FedEx) ) From time of preorder to ship, somebody has to scan the SIM card and MEID for my specific phone and match it to my order. Then box it for shipping. When I plugged in my iphone 5 to set it up, it "knew" it was for my existing number and was already matched into Verizon's system. How many of these can you physically do in the few days from preorder to ship?
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Post by drewbear on Sept 24, 2012 5:54:53 GMT -8
I don't think there's any doubt that demand is greater. As many here constantly point out, the limiting factor is supply. There was a lot of new tech that went into the iPhone 5 and Apple did well to increase the production ramp.
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Post by podboy on Sept 24, 2012 5:55:07 GMT -8
Can anyone enlighten me on googles perpetual uprising?
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Post by frqntflr on Sept 24, 2012 5:58:09 GMT -8
Fairly sure my pre-order isn't included in the 5M. Pre-ordered on 16th but order status still shows 'processing' with delivery estimated Oct 11-17.
Was at a local store Saturday and still saw small line outside. Presumably line was for iP5 buyers. Store itself was jam packed. Manager was able to offer me a free nano-SIM.
Personal impression is that sales and interest in iP5 is at least as strong as for iP4S. If I had to guess, the so-called disappointment with initial sales is probably a combo of supply constraints along with a whole bunch of on-line orders that will show up in FQ1.
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Post by mstefa on Sept 24, 2012 5:58:40 GMT -8
if you Google: LOVEY'S PLACE AAPL; the first reply website to appear is this one! ;D ;D I registered domain LOVEYSPLACE.ORG in case we decide to go official.. My treat
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Post by frqntflr on Sept 24, 2012 6:02:11 GMT -8
Well, it could be worse. AAPL is down less than $7 as I write. On a percentage basis AMZN is down way more and so is RIMM (but that's not news). FB down over 5%. So tech's, aside from GOOG, seem to be bearing the brunt of this bearish sentiment sweeping markets.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Sept 24, 2012 6:04:57 GMT -8
I opened a small spread today. I sense we have some fluctuations ahead.
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Post by podboy on Sept 24, 2012 6:05:06 GMT -8
You missed on that point. The 5 million sold were stock, not ordered. They just didn't have enough on hand..
Apple: 5 Million IPhone 5 Sales over Weekend, Supplies Sold Out 8:52 AM ET 9/24/12 | Dow Jones By Drew FitzGerald
Sales of Apple Inc.'s (AAPL) iPhone 5 topped more than five million during its first three days in stores, a new record that still undershot some analysts' estimates because of supply constraints.
The company has sold out of its initial inventory, Chief Executive Tim Cook said, though most customers who preordered their iPhones had their devices shipped already.
"Demand for iPhone 5 has been incredible, and we are working hard to get an iPhone 5 into the hands of every customer who wants one as quickly as possible," Mr. Cook said in a statement. "While we have sold out of our initial supply, stores continue to receive iPhone 5 shipments regularly, and customers can continue to order online and receive an estimated delivery date."
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Post by frqntflr on Sept 24, 2012 6:06:34 GMT -8
Here's Gene Munsters explanation on BI as to the 5M sales reported by Apple ...
"We believe there are two factors that negatively impacted the number. First, our sales expectation assumed that Apple would include all phones pre-ordered online. We believe that this may have been up to 1 million additional units as units pre-ordered after the middle of the first day were projected to be available in October. Second, we noted 1.25 days of Apple Retail inventory compared to 2.5 days during the 4S launch. Our 8 million estimate assumed full weekend availability and the counting of all online pre-orders. We believe that if supply were not a constraint and Apple included all pre-orders, the launch weekend number would have been closer to 7-8 million, assuming ~1 million October pre-order sales and an additional 1-2 million units at retail."
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Post by phoebear611 on Sept 24, 2012 6:06:47 GMT -8
According to ISI Partners - Brian Marshall - what was specifically said was that if you have not "signed" at delivery yet then your phone is not counted. So he is distinguishing this from point of sale - or anything else. Marshall was specific to say that anything that is in transit IS NOT in the number. I don't understand why TC doesn't clarify. This is beyond insane on trying to guess this thing.
Also - Wedge Partners was saying that the iPhones 4 and 4S -- are the ones that are made in the troubled Foxconn area from over the weekend. The iPhone 5 is not made there.
This was a back up the truck and buy the effing dip - IMHO but the confusion with all these numbers is not good for people trading and/or investing.
One last thing - this week is month end/quarter end - we may get window dressing at some point here.
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Post by phoebear611 on Sept 24, 2012 6:09:58 GMT -8
Maybe I'm crazy but I'm thinking that TC was going to launch this thing a little later...and so not enough were available. Am I crazy?
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Post by fas550 on Sept 24, 2012 6:13:16 GMT -8
When I asked Apple Investor Relations about initial sales for the 3rd gen iPad, the reply was: "The 3M new iPads included pre ordered iPads that SHIPPED along with shipments into the channel since launch on March 19th." Sometimes revenue recognition still gives me a headache. EDIT: Apple's revenue recognition policy excerpt from 2011 10-K: Still confused. Tons of iPhones get shipped direct to individuals so under GAAP or whatever, those aren't sales until the individuals sign for 'em. I thought I thought that when a company has a press release about sales, they're being consistent with how they define sales in their financial reporting. Yes we've covers this before. It comes down to rev rec and satisfying auditors. For online sales they need evidence the customer has accepted the product. That proof is signing for it by the customer. This is common in other companies. It usually only applies to things like phones, computers etc and not consumables like cases etc. For store sales it's different this only applies to online sales. It's listed in your quoted rev rec article above. Every phone that was delivered to the door on the release date is probably counted. Anything after that is iffy. This is why when I am working estimates on sales I usually discount the last week of the qtr for online sales given shipping times.
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Post by podboy on Sept 24, 2012 6:13:40 GMT -8
We knew the sept. 12 date for a long time. He knew the demand was going to be high. I think he wanted some iPhone 5 numbers mixed in to the upcoming earnings report given that the 4s wouldn't have stellar numbers.
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Post by greedynoob on Sept 24, 2012 6:14:25 GMT -8
I don't understand why TC doesn't clarify. This is beyond insane on trying to guess this thing. ++++!
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,181
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Post by JDSoCal on Sept 24, 2012 6:15:42 GMT -8
Fairly sure my pre-order isn't included in the 5M. Of course non-shipped pre-orders aren't counted. Apple can't make these things fast enough. Everyone stop worrying like ninnies, Jesus H. The real number is likely above 7 or 8 when all is said and done. The only question is how many they can get them out this quarter or not. There's a lot of noise today. Tune it out. “While we have sold out of our initial supply, stores continue to receive iPhone 5 shipments regularly and customers can continue to order online and receive an estimated delivery date. We appreciate everyone’s patience and are working hard to build enough iPhone 5s for everyone.” - Tim Cook
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Post by coolbreeze on Sept 24, 2012 6:16:24 GMT -8
I just want to recount my buying experience from preorder date. I woke up at 3 AM Eastern attempting to purchase six iPhone 5's (don't ask). After about 20 minutes of unsuccessfully accessing the Apple servers from my computer, I checked Twitter and realized people were having success ordering using the Apple Store iPhone app. I started placing orders using the app, using three separate Apple Store counts. My first three iPhones went through without a hitch and were scheduled to be delivered on launch day, last Friday. By the time I started ordering my fourth iPhone, the shipping dates had slipped to "2 weeks". The remaining three iPhone were placed with the two-week delivery "delay".
I was done with all of my "preordering" by 3:40 AM Eastern time.
The first three iPhones arrived as scheduled on Friday. I just received notification today that the remaining three iPhones had "shipped" and should arrive Thursday.
So in my case ( "a crazy 3 AM Eastern alarm setting preorderer" who was willing to check Twitter to inquire why I was having such a hard time accessing the Apple servers) Three of my phones arrived on Friday and were counted in the 5 million iPhones sold number that Apple released today. The remaining three phones shipped today and were not counted in that number, but will be counted in this quarters earnings as the month has not yet ended.
My first three phones shipped via UPS and originated in the United States (IL, KY). The remaining three shipping tracking numbers I just received originated in China, but are also being shipped by UPS.
I don't think most people are "freaks like me". Most people's iphones who ordered online (the 2 million preorders in first 24 hours) were not counted in that 5 million number released today.
Heck, even for a freak like me, only 50% were included.
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macorange
Member
My actual dog is cuter.
Posts: 60
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Post by macorange on Sept 24, 2012 6:21:18 GMT -8
As others have pointed out, the 5mil number is a supply number, not a demand number.
In contrast, the 2mil preorder of iPhone5 vs 1mil preorder for the 4S is purely a demand number, not a supply number.
Nothing about today's announcement on weekend sales casts doubt on the logical assumption from preorders that overall demand for the iPhone 5 is roughly double what demand was for the 4S.
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Post by phoebear611 on Sept 24, 2012 6:23:23 GMT -8
I ordered 3 phones at 5 a.m. on launch date. Only 1 has been shipped out of China so far. Still waiting for shipping on the other 2. So I pre-ordered and have yet to receive anything. My three are not counted.
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Post by adamthompson32 on Sept 24, 2012 6:24:23 GMT -8
According to ISI Partners - Brian Marshall - what was specifically said was that if you have not "signed" at delivery yet then your phone is not counted. So he is distinguishing this from point of sale - or anything else. Marshall was specific to say that anything that is in transit IS NOT in the number. I don't understand why TC doesn't clarify. This is beyond insane on trying to guess this thing. Also - Wedge Partners was saying that the iPhones 4 and 4S -- are the ones that are made in the troubled Foxconn area from over the weekend. The iPhone 5 is not made there. This was a back up the truck and buy the effing dip - IMHO but the confusion with all these numbers is not good for people trading and/or investing. One last thing - this week is month end/quarter end - we may get window dressing at some point here. I am pretty certain Brian Marshall is wrong. Once in transit to the end user from Apple, it is sold.
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Sept 24, 2012 6:32:15 GMT -8
This was a back up the truck and buy the effing dip - IMHO but the confusion with all these numbers is not good for people trading and/or investing. One last thing - this week is month end/quarter end - we may get window dressing at some point here. Thanks for the optimism, Phoebes. Can you, as a wall street veteran, explain "window dressing"? I know it means buying stocks which have had a good run, so that you can show them in your portfolio to your investors at the end of a quarter. But I have often wondered, what good does it do if you missed the run? Are the investors that gullible, that having AAPL in the portfolio will make up for the crappy performance of the fund?
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Post by dreamRaj on Sept 24, 2012 6:36:03 GMT -8
Reactions to the so-called disappointing iP5 sales are a bit extreme. But hey, it's times like these that we wait for so we can buy for cheap and then make a killing when the "wheeee" days come back.
I missed the opening today and am hoping/waiting for the 683-685 range to come back so I can pull the trigger on some short-term buys for the week.
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Post by gtrplyr on Sept 24, 2012 6:42:02 GMT -8
Reaction to the sales and this price drop is totally unwarranted. This market is no longer for investors but people who want Wall Street to be their personal casino ... and then people wonder why TC won't "clarify" anything .... it's because he does not give a $hit about wall street ... And I'm happy about it. This is noise .. pure and simple ... Apple will sell plenty of these phones (they already have) and share price will recover. Buy the dip ... it's a gift.
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Post by phoebear611 on Sept 24, 2012 6:42:18 GMT -8
According to ISI Partners - Brian Marshall - what was specifically said was that if you have not "signed" at delivery yet then your phone is not counted. So he is distinguishing this from point of sale - or anything else. Marshall was specific to say that anything that is in transit IS NOT in the number. I don't understand why TC doesn't clarify. This is beyond insane on trying to guess this thing. Also - Wedge Partners was saying that the iPhones 4 and 4S -- are the ones that are made in the troubled Foxconn area from over the weekend. The iPhone 5 is not made there. This was a back up the truck and buy the effing dip - IMHO but the confusion with all these numbers is not good for people trading and/or investing. One last thing - this week is month end/quarter end - we may get window dressing at some point here. I am pretty certain Brian Marshall is wrong. Once in transit to the end user from Apple, it is sold. Look at fas550 - I think Brian Marshall is spot on
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,181
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Post by JDSoCal on Sept 24, 2012 6:43:10 GMT -8
According to ISI Partners - Brian Marshall - what was specifically said was that if you have not "signed" at delivery yet then your phone is not counted. So he is distinguishing this from point of sale - or anything else. Marshall was specific to say that anything that is in transit IS NOT in the number. I don't understand why TC doesn't clarify. This is beyond insane on trying to guess this thing. I am pretty certain Brian Marshall is wrong. Once in transit to the end user from Apple, it is sold. Not according to Apple. Apple's revenue recognition policy excerpt from 2011 10-K that Mav has posted numerous times:
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Sept 24, 2012 6:45:04 GMT -8
I missed the opening today and am hoping/waiting for the 683-685 range to come back so I can pull the trigger on some short-term buys for the week. With no disrespect, Raj, I'm hoping to see 700+ first before going back down to 683 again. But we shall see what happens.
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Post by phoebear611 on Sept 24, 2012 6:47:26 GMT -8
This was a back up the truck and buy the effing dip - IMHO but the confusion with all these numbers is not good for people trading and/or investing. One last thing - this week is month end/quarter end - we may get window dressing at some point here. Thanks for the optimism, Phoebes. Can you, as a wall street veteran, explain "window dressing"? I know it means buying stocks which have had a good run, so that you can show them in your portfolio to your investors at the end of a quarter. But I have often wondered, what good does it do if you missed the run? Are the investors that gullible, that having AAPL in the portfolio will make up for the crappy performance of the fund? I know we only talk AAPL here but window dressing is for a whole portfolio - which is why the markets tend to be up. PMs will just buy shares of many of their holdings...or certainly of those where they can show larger gains. So if AAPL is one of those names you will see buying there AND if the markets are up in general you may also see AAPL. That assumes that we don't get bad news that is company specific. As for investors being gullible - yes, many are. You are in a small minority ... walk out into the real world and I have friends that just look at how much their mutual fund is up or down -- they can't tell you what the fund is comprised of -- they can't tell you if it contains leverage -- they are clueless.
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Post by prazan on Sept 24, 2012 6:54:17 GMT -8
Congratulations to those who bought the dip. Hurrahs for those who then made a quick $10 per share by selling the high.
I've been on this roller coaster enough times now to recognize irrational exuberance when I see it.
I'm asking Mark's question now: will this stop the uptrend?
Until I see evidence to the contrary, I still see 680 as strong support, and a buyable dip. But we might test 670, too.
First weekend sales means, as other have said, that supplies are constrained. We can probably factor this into quarter end sales, and possibly also into Q1 2013 sales. How many can Apple make? That's probably how many they'll sell. Manufacturing and shipping 50 million phones in the next quarter is a huge task.
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icam
Member
Posts: 447
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Post by icam on Sept 24, 2012 6:54:40 GMT -8
Thanks JD.
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Post by adamthompson32 on Sept 24, 2012 7:00:34 GMT -8
I am pretty certain Brian Marshall is wrong. Once in transit to the end user from Apple, it is sold. Not according to Apple. Apple's revenue recognition policy excerpt from 2011 10-K that Mav has posted numerous times: I stand corrected. It looks like the only sales that are recognized as revenue when shipped are those to 3rd party retailers. Clearly here we have a huge number of phones being shipped directly to end users so Marshall is right. Hard to know how many are in transit but a sh*tload is probably a good guess.
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,181
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Post by JDSoCal on Sept 24, 2012 7:13:39 GMT -8
I don't understand why TC doesn't clarify. This is beyond insane on trying to guess this thing. ++++! Yes I agree. How hard would it be to say, "oh, and we only count DELIVERED iPhones that were ordered online, hint hint." I e-mailed PED and Jay Yarrow on this. PED said he'd add Brian Marshall's blurb, but I think this accounting method deserves its own piece since nobody is getting it right. Government regulations at work, ladies and gents. Meanwhile, the government can ignore GAAP accounting rules as we head of a cliff...
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