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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 17, 2012 20:08:12 GMT -8
INTRADAY 15-MIN CHART: Ignore the EW stuff and just look at the Fibs:
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 18, 2012 6:51:33 GMT -8
INTRADAY 3-MIN CHART:
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 18, 2012 15:40:25 GMT -8
iPad, can you help me out on those 15-min and 10-min MACD-h reads? Is that just volatility compression or is there something more to it?
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 18, 2012 19:08:02 GMT -8
Sure, let's take a look... 15-MIN: 10-MIN:
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 18, 2012 19:10:00 GMT -8
You kinda see what I mean, right? Peaks and valleys both getting less pronounced. Is that just kind what the BBs are saying? Or does it have different significance?
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 18, 2012 19:21:59 GMT -8
iPad, can you help me out on those 15-min and 10-min MACD-h reads? Is that just volatility compression or is there something more to it? Both 10-min and 15-min MACD-h showing bearish divergence. See how price is making higher highs, but the mountains are getting shorter? That's waning momentum, just a "heads-up" that signals *potential* retrace ahead. The narrow BBs = volatility squeeze. So a big move is coming one way or another. Now, the thing about divergence...as we've discussed: the shorter the timeframe, the more immediate the implications. And, the stronger the trend, the more likely divergence can go on for longer than usual. Usually, if you see divergence on a 1 min chart, chances are much higher that you're about to see a reversal...within minutes. But when I see it on the 2H chart, well into a strong trend, I don't know if that's hours or days, or since technicals are informative and not predictive (you sooooo impressed me when you pulled out that one!!!!!!), if a sudden burst of momentum will come along and change the entire landscape, eliminating all signs of divergences. In April, AAPL did that first run from 600 to 644 in April on waning momentum. So I don't know if we run all the way to 750 the same way. I can guess, but I don't -- can't -- know for sure.
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 18, 2012 19:23:57 GMT -8
You kinda see what I mean, right? Peaks and valleys both getting less pronounced. Is that just kind what the BBs are saying? Or does it have different significance? Yep, I see it, and you definitely picked up on something worth noting -- good job!! A breakout or breakdown is coming... BBs don't tell us which way. MACD-h says the "up" is losing steam. Which doesn't mean we can't get a second wind...only that a second-wind IS needed or gravity will kick in. Well, actually, besides regular buyers, a second-wind could be found in some judicious injections of capital at just the right time to create a short squeeze...that alone can fuel low-volume melt up, and we can rise on bearish divergence for as long as shorts keep shorting and covering.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 18, 2012 20:06:44 GMT -8
Here's the thing...the MACD-h waning upside I see loud and clear. What of the waning MACD-h troughs? Is it kinda like "well on this short timeframe the positive waves receding predominate because they're so much bigger"?
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 18, 2012 20:40:03 GMT -8
Here's the thing...the MACD-h waning upside I see loud and clear. What of the waning MACD-h troughs? Is it kinda like "well on this short timeframe the positive waves receding predominate because they're so much bigger"? Waning troughs is expected because we're getting higher lows. Higher lows *should* have shorter valleys. Now, when you get a lower low with a shorter valley, that's bullish divergence.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 18, 2012 20:52:07 GMT -8
Higher low with shorter valley?
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 18, 2012 21:03:12 GMT -8
Higher low with shorter valley? Look at the last few downwaves...compare those bottoms with the corresponding MACD-h valleys. Look at 687.67 on the 15-min chart. See the bullish divergence? That's a lower low...but the MACD-h valley is NOT deeper. That's a buy signal. We expect MACD to move *with* prices. Higher prices should correspond with higher mountains (or shorter valleys). Lower prices should correspond with deeper valleys (or shorter mountains). When there's a discrepancy between price and MACD-h, that's divergence...that's a heads-up...the winds of change *may* be blowing.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 18, 2012 23:10:19 GMT -8
Divergence is something I'm still working on. I've long focused on market relative strength without really knowing what it all meant.
But it does seem I'm actually kind of thinking the same way some of you are. AAPL is reaching a short-term inflection point. Which is both fine and convenient, given the iPhone 5 "moment of truth" less than a week away, which is itself a misnomer but this is Chart Talk so I can discuss that elsewhere.
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Post by prazan on Sept 19, 2012 11:29:00 GMT -8
Thanks, Professor Lovemyipad, for the lesson on bearish divergence. And thanks, Mav, for being the talented student illustrating the lesson.
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 20, 2012 6:08:55 GMT -8
INTRADAY 5-MIN CHART: Ignore EW stuff. See Fibs for retrace and extension targets:
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Post by davidcv100 on Sept 20, 2012 6:16:08 GMT -8
Ignore EW stuff. See Fibs for retrace and extension targets: Thanks IPad! This is very helpful.
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 20, 2012 6:17:15 GMT -8
My pleasure, David! I loooove charts.
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Post by davidcv100 on Sept 20, 2012 6:32:59 GMT -8
iPad, Based on your Fib retracement levels, I am considering making my first add feb 700s around 692/693, with a much larger add if aapl drops below 690.
Edit: If aapl dips that far at all, otherwise I will continue to hold my current long position of primarily Apr and Feb 600s.
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Post by davidcv100 on Sept 20, 2012 7:01:33 GMT -8
iPad, was the 693.62 low from this AM close enough to your first fib retracement level or does the price need to actually touch the fib level?
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 20, 2012 7:09:30 GMT -8
iPad, was the 693.62 low from this AM close enough to your first fib retracement level or does the price need to actually touch the fib level? Was close enough, but now I'm watching to see if the opening gap is filled. If not, could be another leg down to 38.2%... Watch to see if we break below 697.20 (SMA-20 on the 5 min).
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Post by davidcv100 on Sept 20, 2012 7:17:43 GMT -8
Watching . . . Thx, and now targeting 688 for any significant add
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Post by mbeauch on Sept 20, 2012 7:51:27 GMT -8
iPad, was the 693.62 low from this AM close enough to your first fib retracement level or does the price need to actually touch the fib level? Was close enough, but now I'm watching to see if the opening gap is filled. If not, could be another leg down to 38.2%... Watch to see if we break below 697.20 (SMA-20 on the 5 min). Lovey, you are showing 692.59 as first retrace, My number is 692.66, no matter, neither has been satisfied. Looks like the 700 tree is being shook hard. Down 50% and insane volume. I am so glad I don't do weekly options. I will say this, My chicken feathers, goat bones and fish eyes are pointing to a buying op today.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 20, 2012 9:50:26 GMT -8
Though of course, that IS the 5-min. Superfast traders only.
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 20, 2012 10:09:45 GMT -8
AAPL TWO-HOUR CHART: Bulls need to close this morning's gap to invalidate island top:
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 21, 2012 13:33:22 GMT -8
INTRADAY 15-MIN CHART: Possible Bullish Scenario targeting 710.50 - 723.50:
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 21, 2012 13:56:08 GMT -8
INTRADAY 15-MIN CHART: Possible Bearish Scenario targeting 685 - 695: (Note: should have an oversold bounce soon.)
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 21, 2012 14:37:38 GMT -8
In other words: Two scenarios depending on how the market takes the iPhone 5 initial sales news probably on Monday?
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 21, 2012 14:43:58 GMT -8
In other words: Two scenarios depending on how the market takes the iPhone 5 initial sales news probably on Monday? I think this is another of those times where the broader market's going to dictate which way the wind blows -- at our backs, or in our faces.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 21, 2012 14:52:05 GMT -8
I think on Monday, iPhone alone sets the tone. Broader market will of course play a role in magnifying or suppressing the move either way.
This is a tough period to trade. I might just keep "trading around" my core trade (I...think I'm using the correct terminology here) and taking profits on targeted trades IF I find them while I wait for better clues on market direction, and/or try to stay out in front of iPhone 5 enthusiasm/disappointment and that iPad Air wildcard.
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 21, 2012 14:57:38 GMT -8
(Yes, using correct terminology!! And good plan!! )
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 24, 2012 14:54:55 GMT -8
AAPL 6-HOUR CHART: The main thing I wanted to note here: at 705, we hit a significant level in Fib-land. Remember when we came off 522 and ran up to 619-ish pre-earnings? Well, post-earnings, this upwave rinsed and repeated that same distance, plus added another 38.2%. Should we extend further on this overall upwave, 716 and 728 would be the next likely targets. That said, 1.382 is pretty key in Fib-land. And that could very well be the temporary top of this upwave.
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