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Post by dreamRaj on Apr 18, 2013 8:14:04 GMT -8
PED just put up analyst expectations for gross margins. Turley Muller has been among the more conservative of the bloggers and he's near the top at 40% (compares with my 39.7%). tech.fortune.cnn.com/category/apple-2-0/Wonder what Andy Zaky is doing nowadays. He's missing in the table above. |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 18, 2013 8:16:13 GMT -8
I just sent an email to PED re: this. CNN is better than this. HD has picked up on the false headline too. If anyone sees a change in the headline, please post that. And I encourage everyone to read the comments below this CNN misfire. |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 18, 2013 8:16:46 GMT -8
PED just put up analyst expectations for gross margins. Turley Muller has been among the more conservative of the bloggers and he's near the top at 40% (compares with my 39.7%). tech.fortune.cnn.com/category/apple-2-0/Wonder what Andy Zaky is doing nowadays. He's missing in the table above. That's a positive in my book. |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 18, 2013 8:19:57 GMT -8
Because oif the time frame of Weekly Options, my analysis of P/C Ratio is based on the change in OIU in Puts and Calls on a Week over Week basis.
Here is what happened starting Tuesday last (Puts being red. Significant change being highlighted):
4/09 Overall OI P/C Ratio 0.55:1. Weekly change 0.55:1 AAPL intraday low $422.90
4/10 Overall OI P/C Ratio 0.55:1. Weekly change 1.18:1 AAPL intraday low $426.01
4/11 Overall OI P/C Ratio 0.56:1. Weekly change 5.21:1 AAPL intraday low $431.20
4/12 Overall OI P/C Ratio 0.56:1. Weekly change 3.19:1 AAPL intraday low $429.09
4/15 Overall OI P/C Ratio 0.55:1. Weekly change 0.55:1 AAPL intraday low $419.55
4/16 Overall OI P/C Ratio 0.55:1. Weekly change 0.55:1 AAPL intraday low $420.57
4/17 Overall OI P/C Ratio 0.54:1. Weekly change -0.39:1 AAPL intraday low $393.56
It appears to me that the Street saw this dip coming, and now feel the moment has passed. This pattern of increased Put (or Call) OI has presaged movements in AAPL several times, but not consistently enough to be actionable (in my opinion). That may change with more experience watching P/C Ratio movement.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 18, 2013 8:34:23 GMT -8
Wonder what Andy Zaky is doing nowadays. He's missing in the table above. That's a positive in my book. Zaky's estimates were always pretty good until Apple changed its guidance methodology. THAT got him into serious trouble (as it did many including myself). |
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Apr 18, 2013 8:42:32 GMT -8
Personally, I am thrilled with the Verizon number because I had become convinced from the media coverage and stock price action that Apple had sold no phones in the just completed quarter.
I'm glad that the number will be at least 4 million......./ deep sarcasm...
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Post by Deleted on Apr 18, 2013 8:50:47 GMT -8
Wow the fear out there is amazing. You'd think the company was about to go out of business  +1! Tim did in fact address this issue at the last conference call when he stated that Apple watchers shouldn’t derive product production/sales from reports of individual component suppliers. Watching all this as I have for the past decade I’ve come to believe that there isn’t ANYTHING that could be said that isn’t either deprecated or spun in some fashion to whatever point of view is desired. Additionally, if what we’re seeing is more about the macro economic environment and less about the desirability of Apple products then I’d be biting my tongue were I in Tim’s position. Even the best of economist’s rarely get that right. +1000 |
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Post by appledoc on Apr 18, 2013 8:55:35 GMT -8
Can't wait for Monday so I don't have to look at my blood red April call spreads anymore! I can just look at my less painful October spreads.
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Post by highway2heel on Apr 18, 2013 8:57:16 GMT -8
Can't wait for Monday so I don't have to look at my blood red April call spreads anymore! I can just look at my less painful October spreads. Same here...tired of looking at that April disaster I inflicted on myself... |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 18, 2013 9:01:29 GMT -8
CNN Manipulating facts for dodgy headlines: CNN headline. iPhone sales down 33% - They are comparing last quarter (the big one) to this one. Lying, cheating b***ards. As you all know iPhone sales up 25% year on year. Failing to point out that FQ2/2012 was an aberration is lying by omission. CNN can defend its story/headlines as ACCURATE, just not the whole story. Its how the media is able to live with themselves. Its called rationalized truth. Of course, the media become a feeding frenzy mob when they suspect someone, other than their own, of doing the same thing. That's called hypocrisy. |
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mark
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Post by mark on Apr 18, 2013 9:06:03 GMT -8
I think what everyone fails to realize is that people prefer a smaller cell phone simply because of it is easier to carry. It's very easy to measure what size cellphone people prefer ... simply look at what they buy. And plenty of people are buying 4.5"+ size devices. If you just look among Android purchasers, you will see that there is a clear migration from 3.5", to 4", to 4.5", and even to 5"+ for some. (That's why I believe Apple will release a phone with a larger screen this year) |
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Post by terps530 on Apr 18, 2013 9:06:25 GMT -8
Can't wait for Monday so I don't have to look at my blood red April call spreads anymore! I can just look at my less painful October spreads. Same here...tired of looking at that April disaster I inflicted on myself... i dunno, my apr 610/620's are lookin pretty good right now! juuust a bit off |
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mark
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Post by mark on Apr 18, 2013 9:07:52 GMT -8
My bigger issue is iPad numbers. I agree. The price cuts on the iPad mini are very worrisome. There is only one reason you cut prices, and that's because supply > demand. |
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Post by wheeles on Apr 18, 2013 9:10:44 GMT -8
My bigger issue is iPad numbers. I agree. The price cuts on the iPad mini are very worrisome. There is only one reason you cut prices, and that's because supply > demand. ...and there's a new one due out soon. |
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mark
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Post by mark on Apr 18, 2013 9:15:03 GMT -8
I agree. The price cuts on the iPad mini are very worrisome. There is only one reason you cut prices, and that's because supply > demand. ...and there's a new one due out soon. What do you mean "and"? Rumors of a new one coming out soon is what reduces the demand (because instead of purchasing, people are waiting for the new one). |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 18, 2013 9:19:07 GMT -8
It's very easy to measure what size cellphone people prefer ... simply look at what they buy. And plenty of people are buying 4.5"+ size devices. If you just look among Android purchasers, you will see that there is a clear migration from 3.5", to 4", to 4.5", and even to 5"+ for some. It isn't so clear when you look at market share distribution by screen size. Larger screen handset share is a pittance when compared to <4" screen sized handset share. I have seen exactly two 5" screened handsets in the wild. I have seen many, many, MANY more iPhone 5s in the wild (hard to do as they are so close in size to the 4 and 4S). |
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Post by sponge on Apr 18, 2013 9:23:30 GMT -8
My bigger issue is iPad numbers. I agree. The price cuts on the iPad mini are very worrisome. There is only one reason you cut prices, and that's because supply > demand. Not worried about the small and short timed sales at retailers to boost traffic. I also don't worry about decreased margins. Extra sales more then makes up for lower prices. |
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Post by rob_london on Apr 18, 2013 9:33:50 GMT -8
AAPL now yielding more than KO.
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mark
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Post by mark on Apr 18, 2013 9:39:43 GMT -8
It's very easy to measure what size cellphone people prefer ... simply look at what they buy. And plenty of people are buying 4.5"+ size devices. If you just look among Android purchasers, you will see that there is a clear migration from 3.5", to 4", to 4.5", and even to 5"+ for some. It isn't so clear when you look at market share distribution by screen size. Larger screen handset share is a pittance when compared to <4" screen sized handset share. I have seen exactly two 5" screened handsets in the wild. I have seen many, many, MANY more iPhone 5s in the wild (hard to do as they are so close in size to the 4 and 4S). I was going to elaborate in my earlier response, but didn't. The problem is Android. There are many different varieties of Android phones out there, many of which I don't quite consider to be "real" smartphones - even though they might look like one. So, when we see all those Android phones "in the wild", most with smaller screens, we have to realize that many of those smaller screened devices are NOT in the same class as a Samsung Note, an iPhone 4/4S/5, or an HTC One, or a Nexus 4. They are in a class of their own - small screen, limited memory, hobbled in many ways, etc. But in the class of "top smartphone", the only segment that Apple is part of, MANY people are choosing the larger screens. And that is why I conclude that Apple will release a larger screened phone this year. The logic is sound, if someone has a good refutation, please reply as I'd like to hear it. |
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Post by terps530 on Apr 18, 2013 9:40:31 GMT -8
yea that cnn thing is bothering me now. i didnt realize its front and center in huge headline on their main page. what a joke
edit: just checked again and cnnmoney now has a housing story on the front page, so at least they moved it. However, the headline remains when you click the apple story
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Post by Deleted on Apr 18, 2013 9:55:05 GMT -8
Posting a response to yet another lame call for a "cheaper" iPhone, a thought occurred to me that what will ultimately drive high end sales will be increased utility, not size (which has already been proven a useless value added "utility").
The "utility" I'm thinking of is iWallet with digital payments.
The key to a successful digital payment system is going to be security. There are two elements to that security a/ is the payor the rightful owner of the device and, b/ can the digital signal be read by an unauthorized device.
Fingerprint recognition solves the first element, but is, as yet, not in use. The second element, signal capture and reading by an unauthorized device, is currently in use by Apple's iMessage system. There were stories in the last couple of weeks that government/law enforcement agencies have been unsuccessful breaking iMessage encryption algorithms. I'm sure the NSA could break Apple's encryption algorithms, but even the most skilled thieves don't have access to that kind of computing power, and the cost to acquire it would make stealing a high end shopper's data far to expensive.
iWallet, with secure payment (would be quickly adopted by retailers for its fraud prevention attributes), will be the next BIG value added utility to handsets. Now I ask you, who has the technology to make this happen?
A "fast follower" won't be/can't be fast enough, because once introduced it will become the universal standard of retailers around the world. Retailers will not go to the expense of installing a second digital payment system that serves the bottom tier of users, using the least secure mobile OS (Android).
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Post by Deleted on Apr 18, 2013 10:07:30 GMT -8
It isn't so clear when you look at market share distribution by screen size. Larger screen handset share is a pittance when compared to <4" screen sized handset share. I have seen exactly two 5" screened handsets in the wild. I have seen many, many, MANY more iPhone 5s in the wild (hard to do as they are so close in size to the 4 and 4S). I was going to elaborate in my earlier response, but didn't. The problem is Android. There are many different varieties of Android phones out there, many of which I don't quite consider to be "real" smartphones - even though they might look like one. So, when we see all those Android phones "in the wild", most with smaller screens, we have to realize that many of those smaller screened devices are NOT in the same class as a Samsung Note, an iPhone 4/4S/5, or an HTC One, or a Nexus 4. They are in a class of their own - small screen, limited memory, hobbled in many ways, etc. But in the class of "top smartphone", the only segment that Apple is part of, MANY people are choosing the larger screens. And that is why I conclude that Apple will release a larger screened phone this year. The logic is sound, if someone has a good refutation, please reply as I'd like to hear it. Your argument that Android is the "problem" is a great argument AGAINST a 5" screen, but let's look at something else you said. Define " MANY". Apple is currently selling 30+ million iPhones/quarter. How " MANY" more will Apple sell with a 5" screen? Simply replacing 4" screen sales with 5" screen sales is not an option. |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 18, 2013 10:08:03 GMT -8
yea that cnn thing is bothering me now. i didnt realize its front and center in huge headline on their main page. what a joke edit: just checked again and cnnmoney now has a housing story on the front page, so at least they moved it. However, the headline remains when you click the apple story PED can't change the headline of his colleague, but he did follow up with this: tech.fortune.cnn.com/2013/04/18/apple-iphone-verizon-activations/ |
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Post by rob_london on Apr 18, 2013 10:15:04 GMT -8
AAPL is now at a level that surely must be attractive to value funds.
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Post by ibuyer on Apr 18, 2013 10:19:45 GMT -8
AAPL is now at a level that surely must be attractive to value funds. Not if the industry profits are might be peaking and the TC/PO/BOD are AWOL. Actually, attractive yes. feeling a need to pull the trigger now. Very little. |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 18, 2013 10:24:44 GMT -8
Today through next Tuesday is going to be ugly. There is just to much fear in the air, a perfect scenario for those with better knowledge (than retail traders) to scoop up additional cheap shares.
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Post by bud777 on Apr 18, 2013 10:26:45 GMT -8
It isn't so clear when you look at market share distribution by screen size. Larger screen handset share is a pittance when compared to <4" screen sized handset share. I have seen exactly two 5" screened handsets in the wild. I have seen many, many, MANY more iPhone 5s in the wild (hard to do as they are so close in size to the 4 and 4S). I was going to elaborate in my earlier response, but didn't. The problem is Android. There are many different varieties of Android phones out there, many of which I don't quite consider to be "real" smartphones - even though they might look like one. So, when we see all those Android phones "in the wild", most with smaller screens, we have to realize that many of those smaller screened devices are NOT in the same class as a Samsung Note, an iPhone 4/4S/5, or an HTC One, or a Nexus 4. They are in a class of their own - small screen, limited memory, hobbled in many ways, etc. But in the class of "top smartphone", the only segment that Apple is part of, MANY people are choosing the larger screens. And that is why I conclude that Apple will release a larger screened phone this year. The logic is sound, if someone has a good refutation, please reply as I'd like to hear it. At first I wasn't going to reply because I thought you said "anyone with a good reputation", but then I read it again and realized I was eligible. I believe your argument is that in the class of phones similar to iPhones many people prefer a larger screen. There is no evidence provided to support this, just a claim. Even if you had cited numbers supporting "many", you need to account for confounding factors such as price and carrier marketing budgets. For example, if you go to the Verizon website right now and look at phones offered for upgrades, you will find exactly 0 iPhones. If you want to choose an iPhone you have to call them, wait 5 minutes, give your account number, social security number and address, then ask what is available. The agent then has an opportunity to convince you not to upgrade to an iPhone. Go ahead, try it. I'll wait. There, see what I mean? I am not saying that this has an effect on sales, just that it needs to be considered when you make the conclusion that the "many" is purely the result of screen size |
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Post by prazan on Apr 18, 2013 10:29:01 GMT -8
It isn't so clear when you look at market share distribution by screen size. Larger screen handset share is a pittance when compared to <4" screen sized handset share. I have seen exactly two 5" screened handsets in the wild. I have seen many, many, MANY more iPhone 5s in the wild (hard to do as they are so close in size to the 4 and 4S). I was going to elaborate in my earlier response, but didn't. The problem is Android. There are many different varieties of Android phones out there, many of which I don't quite consider to be "real" smartphones - even though they might look like one. So, when we see all those Android phones "in the wild", most with smaller screens, we have to realize that many of those smaller screened devices are NOT in the same class as a Samsung Note, an iPhone 4/4S/5, or an HTC One, or a Nexus 4. They are in a class of their own - small screen, limited memory, hobbled in many ways, etc. But in the class of "top smartphone", the only segment that Apple is part of, MANY people are choosing the larger screens. And that is why I conclude that Apple will release a larger screened phone this year. The logic is sound, if someone has a good refutation, please reply as I'd like to hear it. I'd rather see data that supports your thesis. Oversized Android phones represent less than 4% of online shopping, for example. Apple continues to gain share in the U.S. I'm not saying your thesis is wrong, I'd just love to see some data to support it. Could be oversized phones are hugely popular in other markets. I don't know. |
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Post by geraci on Apr 18, 2013 10:40:11 GMT -8
Remember when Apple had subscription accounting in effect and there were billions of dollars of unrecognized revenue that the market seemed to be ignoring? I remember complaining to my wife that Apple's valuation at that time didn't make sense. Looking at Apple's current valuation, I can't help but think the current valuation doesn't make sense either. A buddy of mine reminds me that the market is always right. I guess in the long run that is true, but in the short term, I believe pricing fluctuations can be exaggerated and pricing errors occur. I believe that is what we are experiencing now. So as a consolation, I offer the following recent quotes about Apple: "The best thing you can do with a business is run it well. And if you run it well, the stock behaves fine over time." Warren Buffett, March 4, 2013 Berkshire Hathaway lost half it's market value four times. www.cnbc.com/id/100519069"I would run the business in such a manner as to create the most value over the next five or 10 years. You can't run a business to try and run the stock up every day." Warren Buffett, March 4, 2013 "Even if a particular data point were factual, it would be impossible to interpret that data point as to what it meant for our business." Tim Cook, January 23, 2013 “One thing we’ll make sure is that we don’t leave a price umbrella for people.” Tim Cook, July 10, 2012 "Don't bet against us." Tim Cook, December 7, 2012 "Cheers to the longs" Sponge, Apple Finance Board. (Often) |
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Post by lance on Apr 18, 2013 10:44:06 GMT -8
This whole dip is one thing iPhone 5. It was a disappointment from the beginning thats it. It has resulted in IPhone becoming a declining Y-O-Y or flat growth product. Thats this whole dip. iPhone 5 took them 3 years to come out and it was too late to market and is a disappoint. Simply as that. Its a good phone but wasn't what a lot of cunsumers wanted. If the phone was better and sold better AAPL would be 600 sadly they missed out. I hope TC admits it wasnt good enough and vows to improve, Sadly I think he will applaud it to be amazing and the best when the a lot of the consumers disagree.
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