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Post by Deleted on Apr 18, 2013 16:58:44 GMT -8
Kindly keep the "crotch shots" out of the forum, thanks. Does that mean I have to take back the exult I gave Artman? ;D
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Post by artman1033 on Apr 18, 2013 17:02:42 GMT -8
Kindly keep the "crotch shots" out of the forum, thanks. Does that mean I have to give Artman back my exult? ;D NOOOOOOOO!PLEASE DON'T! every time roni shows up, he knocks me down a couple pegs.... I am SOOOOOO depressed. I had this great deal set up where I was going to trade my exalts for BITCOINS. Now I find out Bitcoins went belly up. What next? In other news: TWITTER MUSIC is here!
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Post by Deleted on Apr 18, 2013 17:14:10 GMT -8
I think TC critics need to shut up until Tuesday afternoon has passed. Then you can either criticise all you want or eat humble pie. We agree on most stuff, but not on this one. I am a long term holder of this stock and until now, a staunch advocate of Tim Cook. His performance caused me to put market orders on half of my shares, and I could very well do it for the rest. I am 80% convinced that he is not the person to run Apple. When he was anointed by Jobs, I was 100% sure he was the right guy. There are many reasons why I have reversed my opinion: 1. The Xmas Mac launch. There was no good reason to announce the new Mac before he knew for sure that he would not miss the Xmas season. But he did. He must have known that the production risks were there, and by rushing that announcement, he killed iMac sales for the Xmas season. There was no upside in that decision. He should have waited until he knew for sure he could ship, and keep selling the current product in the meantime. 2. His handling of the entire cash situation. He has dropped numerous hints that the company is doing something, and he has created an expectation with shareholders and potential shareholders. An expectation that is well past the stale date now. He should have just shut up instead of creating a false expectation. He has let Wall Street and others conclude that shareholder issues are just not a priority. 3. He portrays himself as having no emotion or fight in him at all. Studious, competent, but no passion. Android is a mess, but the world does not know it. I think that Apple should have been on the attack against Android for quite some time now. They should be educating potential customers about issues like abandoned OS's and fragmentation that is a real issue for Android owners. Instead Apple just lets people carry on with the misconception that Android and iOS are almost the same. Where is that Android equivalent of Mac vs PC? Cook is giving Android a free pass - why? Apple is dragged through the dirt EVERY SINGLE DAY, and Cook just sits there and watches. Not good enough. Employees want a CEO that stands up and fights for them when the company is under attack. Cook looks like a wimp vs the world. 4. Retail - where is the Browett replacement? Why is this taking so long? 5. Vision - where is it? Apple has so much potential and all Cook can say is we will keep building good products. He does not need to tip his hand to competitors to get people excited about the vision. The company has 500M credit cards. Tell us that you understand the power of that asset, and how none of your supposed competitors can even come close. Shut the people up who cannot see past the stupid market share metric. 6. Larger phones. Tim's answer is that they don't want to do one because one-handed operation is so important. That is no reason not to build one. A valid reason is that they don't think the market is attractive enough, but that is not what he is saying. He says that we (Apple) think that you (customer) should use a cell phone with one hand. Well, what if the market is huge? Is Apple going to sit there and say they won't pursue it because of their biases that the market does not share? I don't even know if they should build one. But I do know that their current thinking on why they don't is wrong headed. 7. China. Where is the China Mobile deal that we have been hearing about for years? Why is there only a handful of Apple stores in that country? What possible explanation is there for being so slow and cautious? I could go on. To me Cook comes across as weak, slow to act, and indecisive. I feel that the market is seeing the exact same thing and here we sit - a stones throw away from a 50% haircut. No matter what happens next week, he has let damage happen to the stock and the company's reputation that did not have to happen. I hope that next week is the beginning of proving my concerns wrong. But right now I think there is a chance that we have a great company in the hands of the wrong guy. And once you no longer believe in management, then you should no longer own the stock. Jeez, I hope I am wrong about this. I actually agree with most of your points Lstrean. My poorly worded post (which I'm guessing Lovey binned for harmonious reasons) was meant as a too blunt suggestion on my part that we should maybe hold anymore TC criticism for just a few more days until he gets his chance for redemption or failure on the CC. I agree with big bird - other than Elon Musk, at this stage I wouldnt want anyone else running Apple at the moment. Re: being more vocal on androids shortcomings, I'm thinking Phil Schillers leash has been loosened a little bit, judging from his comments/tweets ahead of the Samsung S4 event.
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Post by artman1033 on Apr 18, 2013 17:14:12 GMT -8
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Post by tuffett on Apr 18, 2013 17:18:54 GMT -8
but if Samsung, etc sells 6-8 million devices with large screens, I would expect Apple to capture about 51% of those, so perhaps 3-4 million a quarter. Maybe, might, if, these are not data. They are unsupported "thoughts" on what "might" be happening. Estimates like these, "if Samsung, etc sells 6-8 million devices with large screens", are worthless because Samsung DOESN'T REPORT UNIT SALES. ERGO, any thesis on large screen unit sales, and how they would benefit Apple, make for great beer night speculation, but don't constitute actionable data. Isn't that kind of the point of a discussion board? To make do with the data that is there and make logical conclusions about what might be happening? Oh wait, I forgot - that's only allowed if the conclusion favours Apple and doesn't question the decisions by management, right? You're right, Samsung does not report unit sales. However, with a small amount of observation and rational thought, one can see the following: - Samsung is experiencing rapid profit growth (actual reported data) - Most of the profit growth comes from high-margin smartphone sales (obvious assumption) - Samsung's high margin smartphones are the Galaxy SII/SIII/SIV and Galaxy Note/Note II (obvious assumption based on ASPs) - Samsung's high margin smartphones have large screens (fact) - Lots of people are buying Samsung's high margin smartphones (fact, based on the above points and observation) - Some of these people are using screen size as their main criterion (logical assumption) - Some of these people are using Android/hardware combo as their main criterion (logical assumption) - Some of these people are being influenced by advertising (logical assumption) - Some of these people are using price as their main criterion (logical assumption) - Conclusion: A non-zero number of high margin smartphone consumers have minimum screen size requirements (logical assumption) - Successful iPhone sales do not necessarily indicate a preference for 3.5"/4" screen size over 4.5"+ any more than they indicate a preference for iOS vs Android, or build quality over crap (logical assumption) - Anecdotal evidence indicates many people would either switch from Android to iOS or upgrade their existing iPhones to the latest model if screen size were increased (quasi-fact) - Apple introducing a larger version of the iPhone will boost sales (logical assumption). Those that prefer 4" will stay at 4" and those that prefer larger will have the option to do so while remaining with Apple/iOS. That wasn't so hard, was it?
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Post by tuffett on Apr 18, 2013 17:27:32 GMT -8
If you look ONLY at Verizon? iPhone is outgrowing the competition (yes, all of it!) for that quarter. Look no further than its smartphone market share (~51% to ~55%). Of course, the rest of the world is more relevant and I eagerly await that data. Three trading days to go. Exactly. Verizon shipped 900,000 extra smartphones over last year, 800,000 of that increased amount were iPhones. (Can't wait for the "Big Screen" crowd to tell me why this is a sign that that 5" android phones are killing apple) If AT&T suffers the same "shocking" 33% sequential quarterly drop as Verizon did, AT&T would have shipped 5.6 million iPhones which would represent a "shocking" 32% INCREASE year on year. The USA is not the world. We (myself included) found that out the hard way last Q. After all the great US data almost all of us bumped up our iPhone estimates. Fact is, there is a disconnect in iPhone's performance between the USA and the rest of the world. I'm not letting myself get overconfident because of strong US data - I already knew that. It doesn't mean flagship Android phones are no longer a threat elsewhere.
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Post by tuffett on Apr 18, 2013 17:36:57 GMT -8
I think TC critics need to shut up until Tuesday afternoon has passed. Then you can either criticise all you want or eat humble pie. We agree on most stuff, but not on this one. I am a long term holder of this stock and until now, a staunch advocate of Tim Cook. His performance caused me to put market orders on half of my shares, and I could very well do it for the rest. I am 80% convinced that he is not the person to run Apple. When he was anointed by Jobs, I was 100% sure he was the right guy. There are many reasons why I have reversed my opinion: 1. The Xmas Mac launch. There was no good reason to announce the new Mac before he knew for sure that he would not miss the Xmas season. But he did. He must have known that the production risks were there, and by rushing that announcement, he killed iMac sales for the Xmas season. There was no upside in that decision. He should have waited until he knew for sure he could ship, and keep selling the current product in the meantime. 2. His handling of the entire cash situation. He has dropped numerous hints that the company is doing something, and he has created an expectation with shareholders and potential shareholders. An expectation that is well past the stale date now. He should have just shut up instead of creating a false expectation. He has let Wall Street and others conclude that shareholder issues are just not a priority. 3. He portrays himself as having no emotion or fight in him at all. Studious, competent, but no passion. Android is a mess, but the world does not know it. I think that Apple should have been on the attack against Android for quite some time now. They should be educating potential customers about issues like abandoned OS's and fragmentation that is a real issue for Android owners. Instead Apple just lets people carry on with the misconception that Android and iOS are almost the same. Where is that Android equivalent of Mac vs PC? Cook is giving Android a free pass - why? Apple is dragged through the dirt EVERY SINGLE DAY, and Cook just sits there and watches. Not good enough. Employees want a CEO that stands up and fights for them when the company is under attack. Cook looks like a wimp vs the world. 4. Retail - where is the Browett replacement? Why is this taking so long? 5. Vision - where is it? Apple has so much potential and all Cook can say is we will keep building good products. He does not need to tip his hand to competitors to get people excited about the vision. The company has 500M credit cards. Tell us that you understand the power of that asset, and how none of your supposed competitors can even come close. Shut the people up who cannot see past the stupid market share metric. 6. Larger phones. Tim's answer is that they don't want to do one because one-handed operation is so important. That is no reason not to build one. A valid reason is that they don't think the market is attractive enough, but that is not what he is saying. He says that we (Apple) think that you (customer) should use a cell phone with one hand. Well, what if the market is huge? Is Apple going to sit there and say they won't pursue it because of their biases that the market does not share? I don't even know if they should build one. But I do know that their current thinking on why they don't is wrong headed. 7. China. Where is the China Mobile deal that we have been hearing about for years? Why is there only a handful of Apple stores in that country? What possible explanation is there for being so slow and cautious? I could go on. To me Cook comes across as weak, slow to act, and indecisive. I feel that the market is seeing the exact same thing and here we sit - a stones throw away from a 50% haircut. No matter what happens next week, he has let damage happen to the stock and the company's reputation that did not have to happen. I hope that next week is the beginning of proving my concerns wrong. But right now I think there is a chance that we have a great company in the hands of the wrong guy. And once you no longer believe in management, then you should no longer own the stock. Jeez, I hope I am wrong about this. Extremely well said and I agree on all counts. Man, how I wish Steve was here to pen a couple of "open letters". That's not fair to Cook as nobody could possibly have that effect, but I do think he has let this charade go on way too far and for way too long.
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Post by jeff99 on Apr 18, 2013 17:44:26 GMT -8
If your basing your investment decisions on what size screen a company decides to put in a phone, I'm happy for you that you are no longer investing in Apple. I'm basing it on what people are going to buy. It's as simple as that. Apple didn't sell as many iPhone 5s as expected because people looked at the bigger Samsung phones and thought they offered a better experience. Honestly, what is so hard to figure out? You can read web pages easier on a bigger screen, games and videos are more fun on a bigger screen. It's easier to type on a bigger screen. But if you go too big, then it's no longer a phone and / or it's unwieldy. So you have to admit that somewhere in-between there's a happy medium, right? Well 4.8 or so is that happy medium. And I don't need to study charts or consult astral projections to see that. I need to look at the available phones and predict which the average buyer is going to prefer and how that will affect sales. That's not to say there aren't other factors b/c of course there are. For instance, I would much prefer a larger screen. But I didn't switch to Samsung when the iPhone 5 came out b/c I'm so stuck in the Apple ecosystem it would take a SWAT team to extract me at this point. (In fact, that's why I listened to all of you originally for a little while and it didn't sell until 650 on the way down - I was very confident I was right about the screen size but I figured maybe it wouldn't matter because of supply constraints or the ecosystem or other factors) Most of the posters on here think Steve Jobs was a genius, right? Well (and correct me if I'm wrong) wasn't one of his mantras, essentially, that you don't need market research surveys to figure certain things out, you just know them? (Ok, I"m badly paraphrasing but you know what I mean). Well, this is that. You can keep saying that numbers don't definitely prove that people prefer a bigger screen size (you can keep saying it, though it's ridiculous) but it doesn't matter because if you can't look at what an iPhone 5 looks like in terms of the wow factor compared to a larger Samsung then there's nothing I can write here that will get you to see it. And I'm just about the biggest Apple guy around and own just about every product they make and, as I wrote previously, was 100% invested from 2007. Here's the post-script to my story: I bought the original iPhone the day it came out and bought every major release since (not the 4S). But I didn't buy the 5 because of the screen size. I figured I'd hold out for the 6 because, by then, they'd *have* to realize their mistake, right? And then a few weeks ago I left my iPhone 4 in a taxi and needed to replace it so I bought the 5. Know what? I love it. It's an amazing phone and, I think, infinitely better than the 4. But you know what else? I only know that because I own it. And that's not what's most important. What's most important is the perception of the buyer before purchasing. And this, for many people, is the perception: www.redvipcard.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/samsung-galaxy-s3-vs-iphone-5.jpeg. And this is the reason Aapl is trading at 390 and not hundreds more. (And as much as I love the iPhone 5 now that I own one, I'll buy the larger one as soon as they release it and the line in front of the store - and there will be a line - dissipates).
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Post by appledoc on Apr 18, 2013 17:45:43 GMT -8
LStream's post is the best I have ever read on this board. I share an identical sentiment about TC. He is soft. He hasn't defended the company one bit. Cut the crap about making good products (we know!) and start protecting your shareholders. A drop like this is unacceptable for the largest market cap company in the world. Sitting on this amount of cash for this long with hollow promises of a plan is unacceptable.
When the cash announcement comes, I am expecting something huge. An increase in the dividend and buyback alone would be pathetic. That could have, and should have been done back in December. If that's what happens, I'm out. I'm not going to invest in a company led by a bunch of weak minded individuals who I would never want to work with or for.
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Post by jeff99 on Apr 18, 2013 17:47:53 GMT -8
I'm a many-times-a-day visitor to this forum and I was going to make a long post to this forum many moons ago... Welcome! Sorry, no time to say more, as I'm off to the 7 houses of the rising sun, otherwise known as the Technicals threads... Thanks and no offense intended, of course.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 18, 2013 17:58:55 GMT -8
Well, the calls at $400 have neutered the puts at $400. Open interest still favors a close above $390 --BFD. Man, this stock is broken. I bought today thinking the VZ #s would rally the stock. No such luck.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 18, 2013 18:01:46 GMT -8
When the cash announcement comes, I am expecting something huge. An increase in the dividend and buyback alone would be pathetic. That could have, and should have been done back in December. What more do you expect or want from any cash announcement? What else is on the table besides a bigger dividend and buyback?
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Post by jeff99 on Apr 18, 2013 18:08:24 GMT -8
The ad was mostly a bunch of fluff in terms of actual user experience. Yes, that's what the ad shows to a poster on an AAPL-centric message board. And, no doubt, in most ways that's even true. But to the consumer it shows a smaller, old-looking phone and a cool-looking bigger phone. And while many people stuck with the former, many more people than Apple and analysts and most of the posters on this board expected, chose the latter and it's brethren.
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icam
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Post by icam on Apr 18, 2013 18:08:26 GMT -8
I think TC critics need to shut up until Tuesday afternoon has passed. Then you can either criticise all you want or eat humble pie. We agree on most stuff, but not on this one. I am a long term holder of this stock and until now, a staunch advocate of Tim Cook. His performance caused me to put market orders on half of my shares, and I could very well do it for the rest. I am 80% convinced that he is not the person to run Apple. When he was anointed by Jobs, I was 100% sure he was the right guy. There are many reasons why I have reversed my opinion: 1. The Xmas Mac launch. There was no good reason to announce the new Mac before he knew for sure that he would not miss the Xmas season. But he did. He must have known that the production risks were there, and by rushing that announcement, he killed iMac sales for the Xmas season. There was no upside in that decision. He should have waited until he knew for sure he could ship, and keep selling the current product in the meantime. 2. His handling of the entire cash situation. He has dropped numerous hints that the company is doing something, and he has created an expectation with shareholders and potential shareholders. An expectation that is well past the stale date now. He should have just shut up instead of creating a false expectation. He has let Wall Street and others conclude that shareholder issues are just not a priority. 3. He portrays himself as having no emotion or fight in him at all. Studious, competent, but no passion. Android is a mess, but the world does not know it. I think that Apple should have been on the attack against Android for quite some time now. They should be educating potential customers about issues like abandoned OS's and fragmentation that is a real issue for Android owners. Instead Apple just lets people carry on with the misconception that Android and iOS are almost the same. Where is that Android equivalent of Mac vs PC? Cook is giving Android a free pass - why? Apple is dragged through the dirt EVERY SINGLE DAY, and Cook just sits there and watches. Not good enough. Employees want a CEO that stands up and fights for them when the company is under attack. Cook looks like a wimp vs the world. 4. Retail - where is the Browett replacement? Why is this taking so long? 5. Vision - where is it? Apple has so much potential and all Cook can say is we will keep building good products. He does not need to tip his hand to competitors to get people excited about the vision. The company has 500M credit cards. Tell us that you understand the power of that asset, and how none of your supposed competitors can even come close. Shut the people up who cannot see past the stupid market share metric. 6. Larger phones. Tim's answer is that they don't want to do one because one-handed operation is so important. That is no reason not to build one. A valid reason is that they don't think the market is attractive enough, but that is not what he is saying. He says that we (Apple) think that you (customer) should use a cell phone with one hand. Well, what if the market is huge? Is Apple going to sit there and say they won't pursue it because of their biases that the market does not share? I don't even know if they should build one. But I do know that their current thinking on why they don't is wrong headed. 7. China. Where is the China Mobile deal that we have been hearing about for years? Why is there only a handful of Apple stores in that country? What possible explanation is there for being so slow and cautious? I could go on. To me Cook comes across as weak, slow to act, and indecisive. I feel that the market is seeing the exact same thing and here we sit - a stones throw away from a 50% haircut. No matter what happens next week, he has let damage happen to the stock and the company's reputation that did not have to happen. I hope that next week is the beginning of proving my concerns wrong. But right now I think there is a chance that we have a great company in the hands of the wrong guy. And once you no longer believe in management, then you should no longer own the stock. Jeez, I hope I am wrong about this. Nice post. I agree. I'd add, it's been 18 months, where is one of those "amazing" (in a fake exasperated voice) products in the pipeline? And I'd stress where's the China iPhone contract, or the plan for the cash? Tim Cook's been invisible and weak, and as a result, has lost credibility with the market. There is no confidence in him. Every time he speaks the stock goes down. The only thing saving my bacon is that I've been buying bear put spreads as disaster insurance for the past couple of company events for my long positions (shares and now worthless bull call spreads) that have been paying off. I wish they weren't, but they have been. With Tim in charge, the only sure bet so far have been puts.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 18, 2013 18:09:17 GMT -8
After next week, no one should be on the fence anymore. So that's helpful, at least.
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Post by macziggy on Apr 18, 2013 18:11:54 GMT -8
I predict that when Apple introduces an iPhone with a 5" display it will shatter all prior iPhone sales records and will end up being the best selling iPhone to date. I also firmly believe that if Apple had an iPhone with a 5" display on the market today, the stock would be 100 points higher than it is right now. I'm a many-times-a-day visitor to this forum and I was going to make a long post to this forum many moons ago at the time when there were only rumors about the iPhone 5 and Andy Zaky and others were predicting the stock would go to 1000+. I thought about making that post for many months (and after the iPhone 5 was released) but never did because I figured given the the tenor of the discussion here and my post count, no one was going to give it credence anyhow. But the gist of that post was going to be that if the early rumored images of the iPhone 5 were correct and that they were, in fact, not going to make a larger phone than what was rumored, that the stock was going to be in major trouble. When the iPhone 5 was actually released and I saw the size of it everything in me told me to sell (I was 100% invested in Apple and have been since the first iPhone). But all of you have far more knowledge about the market than I do and I kept reading these boards and, particularly, Andy Zaky's 1000 prediction and, although it was against everything I believed, I held for a while despite my reservations. My thought was "they must know more than I do." Finally, though, when the stock dropped past to 650, I said to myself "why am I listening to a bunch of strangers instead of my own instincts when I know this phone is going to flop?" and I sold it all. I'm not looking for any credit for that or to make any of you with significant losses (I only held common, by the way) feel worse. I'm sorry for everyone's losses. But for months and then (I think) more than a year since, I've read all kinds of cockamamie theories on this board for why the share price was dropping. Macro things. Things that I have exactly zero knowledge about and don't care to learn about (the bollinger bands were crossing the 7 houses of the rising sun and forming a triple helix with a half-gainer, etc). And still it goes on (see my forum *favorite* greggthurman who still doesn't get it). Look, it's as simple as this and as applemuncher has been saying: * Apple is where it is because they didn't release a phone the size of the Samsung Galaxy S3 (not the Note - no one wants a huge phablet like that but the size of the Galaxy is obviously, clearly, indubitably the right size). * The exact moment that Apple the company and Aapl jumped the shark was this one and I knew it the moment I saw it: www.redvipcard.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/samsung-galaxy-s3-vs-iphone-5.jpeg * Apple can unjump the shark and return to its glory by releasing an iPhone 6 that is the same size at the Galaxy. It's that simple. They could keep everything else the same, just do that, and in a few months all the annoying people talking about luxury cars on this board would be doing it again. * But they better do it friggin' quickly because it's getting late early around here. Welcome! I completely agree with you. When I saw the iPhone 5, my thoughts were the same. Very mediocre!! Too bad Apple didn't realize how popular a larger iPhone would be. I have a 4S and my partner has a 5 and there just isn't that much difference at all between them. With a bigger iPhone, Apple could have made a bigger splash and for people who liked the smaller iPhone, the 4 or the 4S are still perfectly acceptable. All three phones are basically the same thing with very slight variations. My previous iPhone was the 3GS and that was way inferior to the one I have now. But the differences between the subsequent models are not that dramatic. I have many friends (who are 40+) who bought the Galaxy because of its size. They like the bigger form factor. These folks are not into surfing the web like I am, so the drawbacks of the Galaxy are not that obvious to them. In fact, one of my friends switched jobs and now has an iPhone 5, which she LOVES except for its size (her daughter now has her old Galaxy). Apple just seems really arrogant to me these days. I own the original iPod which I bought in 2002 for $400. That things still works great after four battery changes. The subsequent models of iPods came in lots of different variations and were all hugely popular, from the iPod Video, iPod mini, and iPod Shuffle. I have 6 iPods now that I use for different things. And there was great buzz whenever a new iPod was unveiled. I see no reason that Apple couldn't do the same thing to the iPhone. In fact, I'm disappointed that they haven't done something similar by now unveiling different iPhone models that would appeal to different people. I hope this happens soon.
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Post by artman1033 on Apr 18, 2013 18:12:10 GMT -8
10,000 iPhones
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Post by appledoc on Apr 18, 2013 18:20:00 GMT -8
When the cash announcement comes, I am expecting something huge. An increase in the dividend and buyback alone would be pathetic. That could have, and should have been done back in December. What more do you expect or want from any cash announcement? What else is on the table besides a bigger dividend and buyback? A large acquisition, infrastructure for mobile payments, something, anything. Hell, even if I disagree with it, at least I know management aren't a bunch of idiots who have been sitting by idly as their company's stock has been getting destroyed. I just can't fathom why it would take this long to come up with a buyback/dividend plan.
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Post by artman1033 on Apr 18, 2013 19:01:04 GMT -8
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Post by sponge on Apr 18, 2013 19:01:18 GMT -8
Like I have stated before, TC is doing great. If you blame him for bad products and bad sales then I can't change your mind.
The company is doing awesome given its size. Margins will improve and when they have better partners for manufacturing the so will supply.
The 5S will break records and the same critics will scream about lack of size or so called innovation.
Just be patient or get out of the stock and get rid of all your Apple products.
I am sure you can have a better experience with Windows 8 and Big Samsung Android phones.
Buy Google stock and Amazon and you will get better returns. Then come back here in 7 years and tells us how you are doing.
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Post by jeff99 on Apr 18, 2013 19:43:32 GMT -8
Just be patient or get out of the stock and get rid of all your Apple products.
I am sure you can have a better experience with Windows 8 and Big Samsung Android phones.
Buy Google stock and Amazon and you will get better returns. Then come back here in 7 years and tells us how you are doing. (emphasis added) Why would the equivalent of "partisan politics" be your response? What's wrong with saying "I'm pro-Apple and their products but, even if the 5S breaks records, Apple would still sell more phones, make more profit, and create greater shareholder value with a larger screen option that, obviously (truly obviously - see Tuffet's earlier post) is preferred by a significant portion of the population?
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Post by Deleted on Apr 18, 2013 19:43:40 GMT -8
What more do you expect or want from any cash announcement? What else is on the table besides a bigger dividend and buyback? A large acquisition, infrastructure for mobile payments, something, anything. Hell, even if I disagree with it, at least I know management aren't a bunch of idiots who have been sitting by idly as their company's stock has been getting destroyed. I just can't fathom why it would take this long to come up with a buyback/dividend plan. Then your decision is easier than for the rest of us: Sell. The chances of getting news like this are less than 1%. Further, I don't believe Apple will even announce cash plans next Tuesday, except to telegraph WHEN they'll divulge such news. Not trying to be a downer here. I'm as frustrated as everyone else. To think Wall Street thinks more of DELL's future tonight than Apple's is beyond disgusting.
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Post by merenkov on Apr 18, 2013 19:44:09 GMT -8
Sponge, I worry about you more than anyone else on this site. As I’ve mentioned in this thread, I sold my last Apple shares in January after holding them since 2006 ($60/share basis). That means I held through the devastating drop of 2008 (from $200 to $80, a sickening 60% decline). The one thing that helped me keep the faith, though, was the stewardship of Steve Jobs. I loved the guy – he was our Thomas Edison, Henry Ford and P.T. Barnum all rolled into one. But he’s gone now. And my gut tells me that people who are expecting a similar reprieve from Tim Cook are going to be severely disappointed...
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Post by terps530 on Apr 18, 2013 19:45:41 GMT -8
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Post by Deleted on Apr 18, 2013 19:46:07 GMT -8
The ad was mostly a bunch of fluff in terms of actual user experience. Yes, that's what the ad shows to a poster on an AAPL-centric message board. And, no doubt, in most ways that's even true. But to the consumer it shows a smaller, old-looking phone and a cool-looking bigger phone. And while many people stuck with the former, many more people than Apple and analysts and most of the posters on this board expected, chose the latter and it's brethren. Plastic is not "cooler." The iPhone 5 is old looking? Really? Ok, I'm done. Why do I bother...
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Post by Deleted on Apr 18, 2013 19:49:32 GMT -8
After next week, no one should be on the fence anymore. So that's helpful, at least. Provided some of us aren't straddling a barbed wire fence...
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Post by Lstream on Apr 18, 2013 19:54:18 GMT -8
Like I have stated before, TC is doing great. If you blame him for bad products and bad sales then I can't change your mind. The company is doing awesome given its size. Margins will improve and when they have better partners for manufacturing the so will supply. The 5S will break records and the same critics will scream about lack of size or so called innovation. Just be patient or get out of the stock and get rid of all your Apple products. I am sure you can have a better experience with Windows 8 and Big Samsung Android phones. Buy Google stock and Amazon and you will get better returns. Then come back here in 7 years and tells us how you are doing. You just don't get it. Never have. Never will. I will never own anything but a Mac or an iPhone. My company has bet the ranch in mobility on iOS exclusively. That does not blind me to Cook's shortcomings. You repeatedly saying that Cook will be fine does not make it true. I actually hope you are right, but if you are it will have nothing to do with critical or insightful thinking. And getting all huffy and telling people to go and use inferior products or to invest in Amazon, because they are not willing to simply accept mgt. shortcomings is the height of silliness. But at least you are consistent. I'll give you that.
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Post by jeff99 on Apr 18, 2013 19:55:19 GMT -8
Yes, that's what the ad shows to a poster on an AAPL-centric message board. And, no doubt, in most ways that's even true. But to the consumer it shows a smaller, old-looking phone and a cool-looking bigger phone. And while many people stuck with the former, many more people than Apple and analysts and most of the posters on this board expected, chose the latter and it's brethren. Plastic is not "cooler." The iPhone 5 is old looking? Really? Ok, I'm done. Why do I bother... No, plastic is not cooler. No, the iPhone isn't, per se, old-looking IRL (I love mine). But in that ad, to the casual buyer who sees that ad or isn't as concerned with plastic vs metal, or just compares a big colorful screen to a smaller thinner one, the Samsung is going to look cooler. It reminds of that Louis CK joke about, if I recall, the time before ATMs when when you ran out of money you just "couldnt do any more stuff." If you look at that ad or compare the phones it looks like you can do more fun stuff on the Samsung. And that's more important to many buyers than metal vs plastic. In fact, I'd be willing to wager that 90% plus of smartphone buyers have never once even thought of metal vs plastic. Don't believe me? What I'm talking about here, in large part, has already happened. But let's look forward at the HTC One. It just came out and I dont need sales figures to know already that it's going to be, relatively speaking at least, a huge hit for HTC. It looks infinitely cooler that the iPhone 5. And that's a problem for Apple. And if you don't see that, it's potentially a problem for you, as a shareholder, too.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 18, 2013 20:01:01 GMT -8
Well, the calls at $400 have neutered the puts at $400. Open interest still favors a close above $390 --BFD. Man, this stock is broken. I bought today thinking the VZ #s would rally the stock. No such luck. A little commentary here, as I enjoy talking to myself (we always get along....) So, last night, all the weekly players could not resist the temptation of buying calls at 400, given all those 23k tasty put contracts at 400. Unfortunately for those titillated 400 call buyers, they are likely going to get screwed tomorrow --and not in the carnal knowledge sense.
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Post by Lstream on Apr 18, 2013 20:02:03 GMT -8
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