Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Apr 22, 2013 17:16:51 GMT -8
You're blaming the wrong people. You want to know who is really to blame? How about the head of marketing, Phil Schiller? Since Steve left Schiller has done next to nothing where marketing is concerned. He lived in Steve's shadow for so long, with Steve doing all the work. Now Steve is gone, Schiller's not stepped up to the plate. If anything, Forstall should have been the one moved in to head up marketing and Schiller moved to head up iOS. I say we should fire them all, tar and feather them, then hang the lot.
|
|
|
Post by sponge on Apr 22, 2013 17:24:12 GMT -8
TC and PO simply have to show a revenue increase with margin expansion tomorrow. They will show the proof in the conf call. No need to be on TV. They do it once every three months and the numbers speak for themselves. If you are looking for margin expansion you going to be horribly disappointed. You expect contraction with your 11.50 estimate?
|
|
|
Post by seabiscuit on Apr 22, 2013 17:25:39 GMT -8
Any thoughts from anyone on where downside support would be aftera weak ER and lackluster guidance?
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Apr 22, 2013 17:33:58 GMT -8
If you are looking for margin expansion you going to be horribly disappointed. You expect contraction with your 11.50 estimate? EPS and GM% are 2 totally different things, and yes, with GM% contraction (47+% down to 40%) I see solid EPS. Why? Revenue will increase YoY by 15%.
|
|
|
Post by sponge on Apr 22, 2013 17:48:32 GMT -8
You expect contraction with your 11.50 estimate? EPS and GM% are 2 totally different things, and yes, with GM% contraction (47+% down to 40%) I see solid EPS. Why? Revenue will increase YoY by 15%. I see. I was referring to expansion QOQ from 38.5 to 39.5. And then further expansion during guidance.
|
|
|
Post by lovemyipad on Apr 22, 2013 18:00:40 GMT -8
Any thoughts from anyone on where downside support would be aftera weak ER and lackluster guidance? Weekly SMA-200.
|
|
|
Post by fas550 on Apr 22, 2013 18:00:48 GMT -8
IMHO TC knows what he should do but he has little incentive to do what is required in that he's already cashed in financially at least. He could leave tomorrow and his lifestyle would not change. There is no excuse for a loss in valuation at this level under his tenure. The last two Conf calls have been an absolute disaster and I can't believe I still have hope the next will be different but I do: We'll see. I just hope I don't hear the only answer to each difficult question is "...we build products our customers love..." He's not the chief of engineering or marketing, he's the CEO and Harvard 101 is his primary role is protect the company and build value for the owners of the company, the shareholders. You can build products "people love" and protect the company from devaluation.
|
|
|
Post by 2cents on Apr 22, 2013 18:01:13 GMT -8
I just have the feeling that the entire world is waiting for what Apple comes out with next.
I mean, they invented a phone and then a larger tablet that you can poke at with your finger so that you don't have to use that stupid "mouse" with a big heavy computer.
Oh, they are going to come out with a TV that is easier for me to use or a phone that I can wear like a watch or an easier way for me to pay for things?
Okay, I'm in.
|
|
platon
Member
"All we can know is that we know nothing. And that's the height of human wisdom.? Tolstoy
Posts: 3,944
|
Post by platon on Apr 22, 2013 18:04:56 GMT -8
I'm riding the N179 train south out of Boston. Regulars here know I like to walk the train and count laptops. Today: 14 non-Apple laptops. 42 Apple laptops, mostly 13" MBP, 2 MBA with two 15" and three 11". 4 Galaxy phones, 2 blackberry phones. Saw 2 iTouches and more iPhones than I could count. 3 iPad minis, over a dozen full size iPads (often in use with iPhone at the same time). Only saw one Kindle Fire and one other non-Apple tablet. The train had 6 cars open, hardly full but over 100 people already. They're pulling two empty cars to fill as the get closer to New York. Oh, and I saw one lady reading Vouge. Apple rules the rails. Yeah Rez, iI am in Vegas and I counted phones at breakfast in the Cafe Bellagio and again at dinner in PF Changs in the Planet Hollywood. Score-----38 iPhones---11 other. Apple rules the anecdotal in Vegas.
|
|
|
Post by tuffett on Apr 22, 2013 18:19:01 GMT -8
CAT and AAPL are not so different anymore, aside from the "boring". I wouldn't even call CAT boring as it can be a boom and bust sort of stock. Safe? Established? Dependable? Reasonable multiple? Sounds like AAPL just as much as it does CAT to me. Fact is the CEO came out and backed up his company with meaningful words and actions as opposed to cliches and inaction. The market obviously appreciates that. Well yes, I'm sure it does, but don't overlook that whole "first buyback in 5 years" deal either. That's true and that's something I've been waiting for for months now from Cook. Obviously wouldn't be a first buyback as it already exists, but an aggressive one would have a similar or better effect. This delay is simply mindblowing.
|
|
icam
Member
Posts: 447
|
Post by icam on Apr 22, 2013 18:34:08 GMT -8
Walt Mossberg on Bloomberg's Charlie Rose program talking tech and lots of apple.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Apr 22, 2013 18:34:51 GMT -8
TC and PO simply have to show a revenue increase with margin expansion tomorrow. They will show the proof in the conf call. No need to be on TV. They do it once every three months and the numbers speak for themselves. If you are looking for margin expansion you going to be horribly disappointed. Apple has averaged 2-2.5%+ margin expansion from Dec. to March quarters for last two years. Most are expecting only .5 - 1%. I think Apple is capable of 1.5% if the iPhone #s are strong enough. But my estimate is only 1% higher (39.6%). I really have a hard time believing Apple has lost a full 800 basis points from a year ago for this quarter. June's margin expansion is somewhat concealed by the lower iPhone count in that quarter. That doesn't mean they don't continue to climb and surmount the cost curve (and prices come down too).
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Apr 22, 2013 18:37:51 GMT -8
I just have the feeling that the entire world is waiting for what Apple comes out with next. I mean, they invented a phone and then a larger tablet that you can poke at with your finger so that you don't have to use that stupid "mouse" with a big heavy computer. Oh, they are going to come out with a TV that is easier for me to use or a phone that I can wear like a watch or an easier way for me to pay for things? Okay, I'm in. A fingerprint sensor in the next iPhone will be bigger than Siri, IMO. And don't underestimate the upside potential of an iWatch, both in terms as a standalone product and as a gateway drug to sell more iPhones.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Apr 22, 2013 18:56:16 GMT -8
The big key tomorrow is obviously margins...it's all about margins, the closer to 40%, the better. Anything below 38% is bad news
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Apr 22, 2013 19:09:40 GMT -8
Hold on. You predicted something somewha? You went by another name here or at the old AFB, 2cents?
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Apr 22, 2013 19:11:35 GMT -8
I'd buy an iWatch if it was a meaningful complement, and I wouldn't get targeted/mugged for sporting one. That second part is a little tricky...
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Apr 22, 2013 19:13:05 GMT -8
Bad news for WS knee-jerk-wise, yes. But Oppenheimer should explain why GM is what it is, whatever it is. Remember the price umbrella?
|
|
|
Post by aapl4kiki on Apr 22, 2013 19:28:39 GMT -8
I'm riding the N179 train south out of Boston. Regulars here know I like to walk the train and count laptops. Today: 14 non-Apple laptops. 42 Apple laptops, mostly 13" MBP, 2 MBA with two 15" and three 11". 4 Galaxy phones, 2 blackberry phones. Saw 2 iTouches and more iPhones than I could count. 3 iPad minis, over a dozen full size iPads (often in use with iPhone at the same time). Only saw one Kindle Fire and one other non-Apple tablet. The train had 6 cars open, hardly full but over 100 people already. They're pulling two empty cars to fill as the get closer to New York. Oh, and I saw one lady reading Vouge. Apple rules the rails. Awesome report! AAPL's gonna kill it tomorrow.
|
|
|
Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Apr 22, 2013 19:33:18 GMT -8
I have never made a bad post? You have me confused with someone else.... ;D But you did say 100 posts and since I have 647, maybe the other 547 bad ones you missed. 2 cents: I can confirm Red has made a bad post when he threatened to whisk Shu Qi off to the Enterprise. That's a difficult thing for me to absorb, much less visualize. But thanks for the kind words. Got to go, my favorite movie of all time is playing (The Transporter...don't laugh). Another good looking bald action hero...Mercel, there may be hope for you yet.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Apr 22, 2013 19:55:38 GMT -8
Here's a chart showing possible impact from stock repurchase and modest dividend increase. There are enough assumptions here to compete with the kitchen sink. But here goes: 1. WS wants a cash plan. With one, Apple's P/E should move to 11 inside 60 days (which is the $489 PPS under "Today") 2. Bump the dividend from $2.65 to $4.00 per share, per quarter 3. Assume annual profit growth of 10% per year 4. Assume P/E expansion from 11 to 12, 13 to 14 each subsequent year (WS likes stabilized, predictable growth -- anything more and we get more P/E power 5. Commit to spend half of future free cash flow (on top of current repurchase plan) toward additional dividend and repurchase. 6. Borrow $50B to repurchase shares over 3 years. 7. Total new commitment is $100B for buyback and dividend increase, half funded internally and half borrowed. 8. If Apple zooms, then the repurchase may be discretionary, at least from the $50B borrowed. Again, lots of assumptions. We could see $700 with a new iPhone 5s THIS YEAR if it has a fingerprint sensor and there's a new product (iWatch? iTV?).
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Apr 22, 2013 20:03:27 GMT -8
Another good looking bald action hero...Mercel, there may be hope for you yet. What other bald action hero? I didn't notice....
|
|
|
Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Apr 22, 2013 20:05:22 GMT -8
Great stuff.
Maybe tomorrow our long fructose nightmare will end.
To better days.
|
|
|
Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Apr 22, 2013 20:06:11 GMT -8
Another good looking bald action hero...Mercel, there may be hope for you yet. What other bald action hero? I didn't notice.... I was talking about Ballmer.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Apr 22, 2013 20:07:45 GMT -8
Here's another take on the above, except I've "normalized" P/E across all periods (using 12, which is LOW).
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Apr 22, 2013 20:11:11 GMT -8
I'd buy an iWatch if it was a meaningful complement, and I wouldn't get targeted/mugged for sporting one. That second part is a little tricky... That's what Google Glass is for -- they'll be scared of the crime on video...
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Apr 22, 2013 20:28:06 GMT -8
Bloomberg and CNBC really make it easy to accuse them of being on the take with Samsung. The latest example:
|
|
|
Post by sponge on Apr 22, 2013 20:37:10 GMT -8
I'd buy an iWatch if it was a meaningful complement, and I wouldn't get targeted/mugged for sporting one. That second part is a little tricky... That's what Google Glass is for -- they'll be scared of the crime on video... Just got off the phone with a friend that is now working for Google X which includes the glass. He is excited about it as he should be, but it sounds like they are having major manufacturing issues. They don't have a date for mass release. Their focus is to get developers right now. He is the one that pointed out to me how Apple is the only company in the world that has the means to produce high quality hardware because they can invest billions in tooling to mass produce their specialized products. On a separate subject, I still don't see a dividend increase or buyback tomorrow. If there is an announcement it will be much smaller then WS expects.
|
|
|
Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Apr 22, 2013 20:37:13 GMT -8
Samsung securities Corporation?
What is next.....Samsung ice cream?
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Apr 22, 2013 20:46:25 GMT -8
That's what Google Glass is for -- they'll be scared of the crime on video... Just got off the phone with a friend that is now working for Google X which includes the glass. He is excited about it as he should be, but it sounds like they are having major manufacturing issues. They don't have a date for mass release. Their focus is to get developers right now. He is the one that pointed out to me how Apple is the only company in the world that has the means to produce high quality hardware because they can invest billions in tooling to mass produce their specialized products. On a separate subject, I still don't see a dividend increase or buyback tomorrow. If there is an announcement it will be much smaller then WS expects. I don't expect cash announcement tomorrow. I think Toni Sacconaghi was Apple's proxy to lower those expectations. And I think Google Glass is one dumb product. Creepy, Geeky, and Spendy. One guy was spotted locally and the word I got back was people laughed at him (and probably shunned him out of fears of the video). Sergey Brin has a big dud on his hands, and if he doesn't know it, he should.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Apr 22, 2013 20:47:29 GMT -8
Samsung securities Corporation? What is next.....Samsung ice cream? You have a talent for describing the indescribable, Red. ;D
|
|