Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Apr 23, 2013 14:12:35 GMT -8
Implied EPS guidance: $6.57-$7.50, but subject to change based on the buyback.
Blech.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Apr 23, 2013 15:31:35 GMT -8
Quick self-retrospective:
Not too bad this quarter, but it's easy when Apple gives a range.
$43.6B revs/$10.09 EPS/37.4M iPhones/19.5M iPads actual
$43.2B revs/$10.43 EPS/37.7M iPhones/18.25M iPads my estimate
iPad actually still holding up quite well. Perhaps Oppenheimer is hinting at a truly atrocious fiscal Q3 for iPhone (unfortunately, there's still a lot of education to do on sellthrough, which doesn't help).
|
|
|
Post by Tetrachloride on Apr 24, 2013 7:23:25 GMT -8
The numbers would seem to imply iPhone sales drop of ... well, its big. note: color me highly cynical on Apple for the next few years.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on May 17, 2013 21:15:37 GMT -8
No takers yet? Aw.
|
|
|
Post by qualitywte on May 20, 2013 6:48:17 GMT -8
I'm not sure what to expect this quarter. I almost feel TC and PO have finally gotten guidance and expectations down to a level that will be easily beat.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on May 20, 2013 7:12:15 GMT -8
I wouldn't be so sure. $6.57-$7.50 implied EPS isn't what I'd call an expression of "we're gonna have a great quarter", margin compression or otherwise.
|
|
|
Post by qualitywte on May 20, 2013 19:06:44 GMT -8
I wouldn't be so sure. $6.57-$7.50 implied EPS isn't what I'd call an expression of "we're gonna have a great quarter", margin compression or otherwise. Right, thats what Im saying, doesn't exactly support lofty expectations.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on May 20, 2013 20:10:25 GMT -8
Well, I'm saying it may well be a really weak quarter, so "in-line" results might really be in the cards. Still need to puzzle out whether that's likely, but I can't count it out at this point.
|
|
|
Post by moltenfire on May 26, 2013 3:21:19 GMT -8
Tim Cook Apr 2013 Conf Call: Our teams are hard at work on some amazing new hardware, software, and services that we can’t wait to introduce this fall and throughout 2014. We continue to be very confident in our future product plans.
People are going to be holding off buying an iPhone or iPad until after the fall. Hence, it'll be like the quarter prior to the 4S being introduced - delayed demand and a low EPS.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on May 26, 2013 7:40:18 GMT -8
Define "holding off".
Seasonal patterns + consumer expectations. I don't think Apple sales are affected much by what Tim Cook says at an earnings conference call.
The way I see it, iPhone YOY growth will be anywhere from slight growth to slight decline, with a more modest YOY iPad growth rate. And I do see that as a bit conservative - unless consumers really do see iPhones and iPads as old after less than a year.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Jun 17, 2013 23:44:12 GMT -8
My latest napkin math has EPS approaching $8 (call it mid/high $7s) with a mild buyback impact assumed (say, $2B worth)
|
|
|
Post by rickag on Jun 18, 2013 5:15:10 GMT -8
This quarter's EPS won't be good, I hold out hope that next quarters guidance will be though.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Jun 18, 2013 8:38:59 GMT -8
Care to elaborate on "won't be good"? It IS still early, but keeping it factual helps the estimation process. Heck, if I could get reasonably close to actual last quarter, anyone can!
|
|
|
Post by rickag on Jun 18, 2013 13:44:35 GMT -8
Care to elaborate on "won't be good"? It IS still early, but keeping it factual helps the estimation process. Heck, if I could get reasonably close to actual last quarter, anyone can! Anything below YOY eps will be used for a new round of FUD. The TTE will drop and unless guidance indicates new products are projected to be introduced or China Mobile will be added as a carrier AAPL could very well see sub $400. My point is, for the next quarter guidance should dominate the direction AAPL takes.
|
|
|
Post by qualitywte on Jun 20, 2013 9:59:22 GMT -8
We're only 10 days from quarter end. Normally don't we usually see lots of FUD about sales weakness by this point?
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Jun 20, 2013 10:03:12 GMT -8
Isn't much more FUD to give, really. And no one is thinking Apple's in _that_ much trouble.
Oppenheimer has done his job of resetting expectations, it seems.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Jun 22, 2013 11:10:19 GMT -8
Will Apple beat $7.50 EPS this quarter? It could be close!
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Jun 24, 2013 15:53:49 GMT -8
Will Apple bring its shares outstanding to 900M so it can make a 2:1 stock split sometime in the next 6-18 months? Hmm.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jun 25, 2013 4:07:20 GMT -8
Will Apple beat $7.50 EPS this quarter? It could be close! $7.50 would be worst case scenario in my book. $8.00 seems more plausible to me.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Jun 25, 2013 14:08:33 GMT -8
What revs number do you have?
One troubling range that can't be dismissed out of hand:
|
|
|
Post by nathanstevens on Jun 25, 2013 15:04:29 GMT -8
Will Apple bring its shares outstanding to 900M so it can make a 2:1 stock split sometime in the next 6-18 months? Hmm. What's the significance of 900M for a split to occur?
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Jun 25, 2013 15:06:30 GMT -8
Apple can authorize 1.8B outstanding shares AFAIK: www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/320193/000119312509153165/dex31.htmSo, if it gets to 900M shares outstanding or issued or whatever, it can do a 2:1 stock split without shareholder authorization. Granted, that theoretically runs counter to the purpose of a buyback, but at the same time, share splits are also theoretically only "psychological", so nothing really changes.
|
|
|
Post by nathanstevens on Jun 25, 2013 15:19:30 GMT -8
Thanks for the link. I wasn't aware of that limitation. Logically, it doesn't make sense for certain companies to be valued at 10 p/e while others are valued at 26. I'm slowly learning that "logic" is often counterproductive in investing.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jun 27, 2013 0:19:19 GMT -8
What revs number do you have? One troubling range that can't be dismissed out of hand: My final numbers for this quarter are quite aggressive, but still what I consider conservative to historical apple results. $8.11 EPS on $36.9 billion revenue and 37.4% GM.
|
|
|
Post by rickag on Jun 27, 2013 11:41:55 GMT -8
What revs number do you have? One troubling range that can't be dismissed out of hand: My final numbers for this quarter are quite aggressive, but still what I consider conservative to historical apple results. $8.11 EPS on $36.9 billion revenue and 37.4% GM. If you don't mind my asking why do you have revenues exceeding the top end of guidance by $1.4 billion?
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Jun 27, 2013 11:45:01 GMT -8
Actually, I do too in my alpha estimates and it bugs me considerably.
Though Apple did top revs range guidance last quarter by about $500M IIRC, so a beat can happen. It's the problem of extent.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jun 27, 2013 17:22:57 GMT -8
My final numbers for this quarter are quite aggressive, but still what I consider conservative to historical apple results. $8.11 EPS on $36.9 billion revenue and 37.4% GM. If you don't mind my asking why do you have revenues exceeding the top end of guidance by $1.4 billion? I work from predicting unit sales and ASPs first and then work from there. Apple has always beat revenue guidance, even the recently provided guidance ranges, its just a question of by how much. $1.4 billion beat is less than 4% beat of the top guidance range.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 3, 2013 13:58:36 GMT -8
Actually, I do too in my alpha estimates and it bugs me considerably. Though Apple did top revs range guidance last quarter by about $500M IIRC, so a beat can happen. It's the problem of extent. Was just perusing your q3 unit & ASP estimates on your blog aapltree.wordpress.com/2013/07/02/aapl-earnings-watch-fiscal-q3-2013-edition-part-2-a-second-small-leap-of-logic/I think the iPad number is possibly going to come in lower than expected this quarter (although I hope I'm wrong). Last years Q3 had 2 significant iPad factors going for it: The iPad 3 with retina display had been released just a couple of weeks before the quarter started, and it was also just a few weeks after the introduction of a cheaper entry level iPad at $399 (the iPad 2) This year we had an iPad line up that was already 6 months old coming into the quarter and almost 9 months old at quarter end (of course) so the presence of a hot new product was absent, and this year there might even be a tiny amount of lost sales due to some now waiting for the iPad 5 & iPad mini 2. But to offset that we likely had organic growth within the tablet market and of course the availability of the popular iPad mini at $329 will add sales. Will the lack of a new model introduction this quarter be more than offset by the positive factors of the iPad mini? I'm picking only slightly, which is why I'm only at 18 million units. However if I'm wrong and iPads come in significantly above my estimate, then I guess my already quite high $8.11 EPS is only going to go higher, so on this occasion I will be pleased to be wrong (the more wrong I am the better!).
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Jul 3, 2013 14:30:35 GMT -8
Burgess, that's not an estimate actually. That's an "estimate" designed to fit within Oppenheimer's revenue guidance.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 3, 2013 18:13:40 GMT -8
Anything below YOY eps will be used for a new round of FUD. ummm, no. Investors do not buy the past. They buy the future. Guidance is much more important than earnings. Somewhat correct. The market doesn't care how revenue is generated, as long as it is. Spot on.
|
|