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Post by appledoc on Apr 25, 2013 9:18:42 GMT -8
If your region doesn't have LTE and have many accessories that work with the previous dock connector, which iPhone would you buy? I fall under that category and I have a 5. But I'm also not most people. Sans my Apple fanaticism, I probably would have gotten the 5 anyways. Device size is perfect for me.
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Post by rob_london on Apr 25, 2013 9:19:38 GMT -8
Wow. WWDC sold out in two minutes 90 seconds. Took a glacial two hours last year.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,438
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Post by chinacat on Apr 25, 2013 9:29:48 GMT -8
Wow. WWDC sold out in two minutes 90 seconds. Took a glacial two hours last year. Geez, I guess the developers haven't gotten the word yet that Apple is doomed.
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Post by aapl4kiki on Apr 25, 2013 9:45:18 GMT -8
Stop being so selective with facts. Wasn't there a little thing called iPad contributing to lower revs per unit as well? Why yes, yes there was. (And I wonder if iPad mix has anything to do with margins. And I wonder if Apple's entire product strategy has anything to do with sacrificing margin for long-term company health.) Hm, let's look at iPhone now. If you look at Apple IR (which I regard as mandatory reading for anyone not trading only on technicals/EW), do the YOY ASP compare again, you'll notice something. I'm not "spoiling" the answers because they're so clear. It IS true that there is a mix-shift trend to cheaper phones. Tim doesn't have an answer ready yet because Apple doesn't work that way, you should all know this by now, like it or not. But don't use the wrong data to back up your points. Thanks for not being a spoiler.
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Post by aapl4kiki on Apr 25, 2013 9:53:13 GMT -8
Not that BIG ACQUISITION meme again. First, invest in yourself (R&D, CapEx, etc.). Then, REinvest in yourself (buybacks). Then, throw a bone to shareholders (dividends). Buy a big company, that's somewhere in importance around dividends IMHO. You won't know exactly how much Apple is investing in itself for several years. Fact is, RAM, flash memory, chips, hardware integrators tend not to make them themselves. Samsung is a very notable exception. It's always been a vendor-supplied business. And then there's the whole manufacturing/assembly deal. Even if a company actually wanted to do its own manufacturing and assembly, margins be damned, it's...kinda tough for a company doing $160B+ annually. But there IS that Mac line in the US. So it's a start. Mav - No big meme here. It's just my small irrelevant opinion...like noses...everyones got one. I'm moving on and off to dealing with....What is is. And, that is, growth from the most innovative company on the planet is probable to resume in the fall of 2013 and cash is being used to pay a $12.25 dividend (3% current yield) and to buy back stock in the largest stock repurchase in history. I'm ok with it. Things could be a lot worse. iCam - I think they should buy both Disney and TWX - movies, sports, distribution...game, set, match.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 25, 2013 9:55:43 GMT -8
Didn't I see somewhere the the galaxy S4 is starting at 249 instead of 199? It will be interesting to see how that works out. You did. Sammy dropped the price after the tepid reaction to the S4 and nervousness over competition from HTC One. This is the margin squeeze CNBC should be talking about. Samsung is getting squeezed by HTC, ZTE and Huawei, while Apple is lowering the price umbrella with older iPhone models (and picking up share while doing it).
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Post by tuffett on Apr 25, 2013 9:57:01 GMT -8
Stop being so selective with facts. Wasn't there a little thing called iPad contributing to lower revs per unit as well? Why yes, yes there was. (And I wonder if iPad mix has anything to do with margins. And I wonder if Apple's entire product strategy has anything to do with sacrificing margin for long-term company health.) Hm, let's look at iPhone now. If you look at Apple IR (which I regard as mandatory reading for anyone not trading only on technicals/EW), do the YOY ASP compare again, you'll notice something. I'm not "spoiling" the answers because they're so clear. It IS true that there is a mix-shift trend to cheaper phones. Tim doesn't have an answer ready yet because Apple doesn't work that way, you should all know this by now, like it or not. But don't use the wrong data to back up your points. Huh? What did I say that's wrong? My point is that earnings from iPad + iPad Mini - cannibalization > iPad alone. Is that wrong? If so, it's not a good thing. Of course iPad ASP is down but they also grew sales 65%. Pointing to the iPad Mini as the main problem for lack of earnings growth is simply wrong. It's iPhone. Lower ASP and not much growth. Simple.
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Post by bud777 on Apr 25, 2013 10:04:33 GMT -8
Notes from the ledge.....
Thanks to all of you who took the time to reply in PM's. I appreciate your advice and perspective. I am going ahead with the cash-out refinance since I can go up to closing with no cost. I have received quotes for two different vendors for a 7/1 ARM with no prepayment penalty at 2.75% . If the amount is $400,000 the payments are $1650 per month. Apple will pay a convenient $1000 per month dividend on 1000 shares, assuming I get to buy in at $400. I have enough cash on hand to cover the principal payments for 5 years, so that is just moving money from one account to another. The differential between the dividends and the interest is just a few hundred a month, but it is coming in, not going out. I plan to sell monthly covered calls at 25-50 points above the current price. If I get called away, I close out the loan and keep my $25k + whatever I get from the call. I will close out the loan after 5 years regardless. If we drop to 300, I just settle for that interest differential and wait until it comes back. Lenders didn't bat an eye when I told them what I wanted the money for. There is a risk here if Apple drops below $400 and stays there for 5 years. I am willing to take that risk. Beyond that I cannot see a downside. It will take a while for the loan to close, so if you see anything I have missed, I welcome your insights. Thank you all again for helping me develop this idea.
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icam
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Post by icam on Apr 25, 2013 10:11:57 GMT -8
Stop being so selective with facts. Wasn't there a little thing called iPad contributing to lower revs per unit as well? Why yes, yes there was. (And I wonder if iPad mix has anything to do with margins. And I wonder if Apple's entire product strategy has anything to do with sacrificing margin for long-term company health.) Hm, let's look at iPhone now. If you look at Apple IR (which I regard as mandatory reading for anyone not trading only on technicals/EW), do the YOY ASP compare again, you'll notice something. I'm not "spoiling" the answers because they're so clear. It IS true that there is a mix-shift trend to cheaper phones. Tim doesn't have an answer ready yet because Apple doesn't work that way, you should all know this by now, like it or not. But don't use the wrong data to back up your points. Huh? What did I say that's wrong? My point is that earnings from iPad + iPad Mini - cannibalization > iPad alone. Is that wrong? If so, it's not a good thing. Of course iPad ASP is down but they also grew sales 65%. Pointing to the iPad Mini as the main problem for lack of earnings growth is simply wrong. It's iPhone. Lower ASP and not much growth. Simple. Tuffet - For another perspective, check out this data and analysis from Horace. He concludes that: iPhone is the most important product, iPhone Average Selling Price is not down that much. The real impact to Earnings is the cost of iPhones components is up (likely caused by Samesung raising prices on Apple as Apple moves to other suppliers that haven't/won't steal their IP). www.asymco.com/2013/04/25/margin-call-2/
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icam
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Post by icam on Apr 25, 2013 10:18:37 GMT -8
Notes from the ledge..... Thanks to all of you who took the time to reply in PM's. I appreciate your advice and perspective. I am going ahead with the cash-out refinance since I can go up to closing with no cost. I have received quotes for two different vendors for a 7/1 ARM with no prepayment penalty at 2.75% . If the amount is $400,000 the payments are $1650 per month. Apple will pay a convenient $1000 per month dividend on 1000 shares, assuming I get to buy in at $400. I have enough cash on hand to cover the principal payments for 5 years, so that is just moving money from one account to another. The differential between the dividends and the interest is just a few hundred a month, but it is coming in, not going out. I plan to sell monthly covered calls at 25-50 points above the current price. If I get called away, I close out the loan and keep my $25k + whatever I get from the call. I will close out the loan after 5 years regardless. If we drop to 300, I just settle for that interest differential and wait until it comes back. Lenders didn't bat an eye when I told them what I wanted the money for. There is a risk here if Apple drops below $400 and stays there for 5 years. I am willing to take that risk. Beyond that I cannot see a downside. It will take a while for the loan to close, so if you see anything I have missed, I welcome your insights. Thank you all again for helping me develop this idea. Good Luck bud. You've got bigger balls than me. I live in a paid for house for a multitude of reasons. I'd never do what your about to do. But we're not talking about me, we're talking about you. To each his own. And like I said, good luck man, I hope it works out for you.
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Post by tuffett on Apr 25, 2013 10:30:25 GMT -8
icam - that is anther possibility. If so, it should have been emphasized in the conference call tough. I don't believe in misleading (lying to?) shareholders.
If this is the main reason, hopefully we have seen the end of it.
Nonetheless there was a definite drop in ASP - $22 or 3.5%. That's not insignificant for the most important product line, when the growth is slowing down. I'm not at all saying the future is bleak - I'm only pointing out the main reason for the drop in profit. It is not the iPad Mini.
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Post by pauls on Apr 25, 2013 10:30:47 GMT -8
Notes from the ledge..... Thanks to all of you who took the time to reply in PM's. I appreciate your advice and perspective. I am going ahead with the cash-out refinance since I can go up to closing with no cost. I have received quotes for two different vendors for a 7/1 ARM with no prepayment penalty at 2.75% . If the amount is $400,000 the payments are $1650 per month. Apple will pay a convenient $1000 per month dividend on 1000 shares, assuming I get to buy in at $400. I have enough cash on hand to cover the principal payments for 5 years, so that is just moving money from one account to another. The differential between the dividends and the interest is just a few hundred a month, but it is coming in, not going out. I plan to sell monthly covered calls at 25-50 points above the current price. If I get called away, I close out the loan and keep my $25k + whatever I get from the call. I will close out the loan after 5 years regardless. If we drop to 300, I just settle for that interest differential and wait until it comes back. Lenders didn't bat an eye when I told them what I wanted the money for. There is a risk here if Apple drops below $400 and stays there for 5 years. I am willing to take that risk. Beyond that I cannot see a downside. It will take a while for the loan to close, so if you see anything I have missed, I welcome your insights. Thank you all again for helping me develop this idea. Good luck, Bud! It does seem a heroic endeavor but I do believe the odds at this point in time are in your favor. Sure beats going on margin, I imagine. Do you have a price in mind to get out? Or is it too far out to ponder?
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Post by applemuncher on Apr 25, 2013 10:37:29 GMT -8
Notes from the ledge..... Thanks to all of you who took the time to reply in PM's. I appreciate your advice and perspective. I am going ahead with the cash-out refinance since I can go up to closing with no cost. I have received quotes for two different vendors for a 7/1 ARM with no prepayment penalty at 2.75% . If the amount is $400,000 the payments are $1650 per month. Apple will pay a convenient $1000 per month dividend on 1000 shares, assuming I get to buy in at $400. I have enough cash on hand to cover the principal payments for 5 years, so that is just moving money from one account to another. The differential between the dividends and the interest is just a few hundred a month, but it is coming in, not going out. I plan to sell monthly covered calls at 25-50 points above the current price. If I get called away, I close out the loan and keep my $25k + whatever I get from the call. I will close out the loan after 5 years regardless. If we drop to 300, I just settle for that interest differential and wait until it comes back. Lenders didn't bat an eye when I told them what I wanted the money for. There is a risk here if Apple drops below $400 and stays there for 5 years. I am willing to take that risk. Beyond that I cannot see a downside. It will take a while for the loan to close, so if you see anything I have missed, I welcome your insights. Thank you all again for helping me develop this idea. Hi Bud, What do you think interest rates will be in seven years? Other than that, I like your plan.
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Post by nathanstevens on Apr 25, 2013 10:43:17 GMT -8
Notes from the ledge..... Thanks to all of you who took the time to reply in PM's. I appreciate your advice and perspective. I am going ahead with the cash-out refinance since I can go up to closing with no cost. I have received quotes for two different vendors for a 7/1 ARM with no prepayment penalty at 2.75% . If the amount is $400,000 the payments are $1650 per month. Apple will pay a convenient $1000 per month dividend on 1000 shares, assuming I get to buy in at $400. I have enough cash on hand to cover the principal payments for 5 years, so that is just moving money from one account to another. The differential between the dividends and the interest is just a few hundred a month, but it is coming in, not going out. I plan to sell monthly covered calls at 25-50 points above the current price. If I get called away, I close out the loan and keep my $25k + whatever I get from the call. I will close out the loan after 5 years regardless. If we drop to 300, I just settle for that interest differential and wait until it comes back. Lenders didn't bat an eye when I told them what I wanted the money for. There is a risk here if Apple drops below $400 and stays there for 5 years. I am willing to take that risk. Beyond that I cannot see a downside. It will take a while for the loan to close, so if you see anything I have missed, I welcome your insights. Thank you all again for helping me develop this idea. You're basically doing the same thing as TC. Sounds like a good idea to me.
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Post by mace on Apr 25, 2013 10:51:32 GMT -8
Possible reasons for gross margin decline:
a. Strengthening US dollar;
b. Shamesung raising component prices;
c. Deferred revenue effect and lower margin of iPad mini; and
d. Appreciating depreciation from recent high capex.
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Post by mace on Apr 25, 2013 11:40:19 GMT -8
So quiet for a monthly max pain Thursday. Max pain is $410, so really really really want AAPL to close above $410 tomorrow. Above $415 would be ecstatic.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 25, 2013 11:49:21 GMT -8
So quiet for a monthly max pain Thursday. Max pain is $410, so really really really want AAPL to close above $410 tomorrow. Above $415 would be ecstatic. I don't see it happening from open interest. Next week looks better for $415+
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Post by appledoc on Apr 25, 2013 12:10:34 GMT -8
So quiet for a monthly max pain Thursday. Max pain is $410, so really really really want AAPL to close above $410 tomorrow. Above $415 would be ecstatic. Monthly was last week.
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Post by rickag on Apr 25, 2013 12:16:08 GMT -8
Notes from the ledge..... Thanks to all of you who took the time to reply in PM's. I appreciate your advice and perspective. I am going ahead with the cash-out refinance since I can go up to closing with no cost. I have received quotes for two different vendors for a 7/1 ARM with no prepayment penalty at 2.75% . If the amount is $400,000 the payments are $1650 per month. Apple will pay a convenient $1000 per month dividend on 1000 shares, assuming I get to buy in at $400. I have enough cash on hand to cover the principal payments for 5 years, so that is just moving money from one account to another. The differential between the dividends and the interest is just a few hundred a month, but it is coming in, not going out. I plan to sell monthly covered calls at 25-50 points above the current price. If I get called away, I close out the loan and keep my $25k + whatever I get from the call. I will close out the loan after 5 years regardless. If we drop to 300, I just settle for that interest differential and wait until it comes back. Lenders didn't bat an eye when I told them what I wanted the money for. There is a risk here if Apple drops below $400 and stays there for 5 years. I am willing to take that risk. Beyond that I cannot see a downside. It will take a while for the loan to close, so if you see anything I have missed, I welcome your insights. Thank you all again for helping me develop this idea. Good luck, you have more huzpuh than I do.
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Post by lucy on Apr 25, 2013 12:23:50 GMT -8
Huge call OI at the 500 in May expiration.
Does anyone think there will be buyers getting in for the dividend in May?
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Post by appledoc on Apr 25, 2013 12:31:09 GMT -8
Does anyone think there will be buyers getting in for the dividend in May? Yes. Enough to change course? No.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Apr 25, 2013 12:31:20 GMT -8
AMZN can do no wrong.
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Post by seabiscuit on Apr 25, 2013 12:35:01 GMT -8
Huge call OI at the 500 in May expiration. Does anyone think there will be buyers getting in for the dividend in May? There might be a few, but Apple up or down in a few minutes by the amount of the dividend. Really makes no sense to buy just for the dividend unless making a longer term decision.
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Post by appledoc on Apr 25, 2013 12:35:15 GMT -8
Guidance was crappy, revenue was a small miss, but EPS was a huge beat. Wait until the end of tomorrow to judge WS's true reaction. Just look at trading the day after January earnings to see why.
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Post by artman1033 on Apr 25, 2013 12:52:48 GMT -8
AMZN's NUMBERS ARE SO HORRIBLE THEY are left to brag "Operating cash flow increased 39% to $4.25 billion for the trailing twelve months, compared with $3.05 billion for the trailing twelve months ended March 31, 2012. Free cash flow decreased 85% to $177 million for the trailing twelve months, compared with $1.15 billion for the trailing twelve months ended March 31, 2012. Free cash flow for the trailing twelve months ended March 31, 2013 includes fourth quarter 2012 cash outflows for purchases of corporate office space and property in Seattle, Washington, of $1.4 billion.." I am astounded...... this pig can fly!
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Post by artman1033 on Apr 25, 2013 12:54:21 GMT -8
CRUS conference call in 7 minutes. I continue to like CRUS.
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Post by phoebear611 on Apr 25, 2013 13:06:51 GMT -8
Guidance was crappy, revenue was a small miss, but EPS was a huge beat. Wait until the end of tomorrow to judge WS's true reaction. Just look at trading the day after January earnings to see why. I refuse the play the stock - I've gotten it right and then got crushed because WS just loves this stock. I'd rather be in a Greek tragedy and gouge my eyes out. (Doc - you sound like my hubby - he said he same thing you did....guess we'll see)
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 25, 2013 13:26:55 GMT -8
Stop being so selective with facts. Wasn't there a little thing called iPad contributing to lower revs per unit as well? Why yes, yes there was. (And I wonder if iPad mix has anything to do with margins. And I wonder if Apple's entire product strategy has anything to do with sacrificing margin for long-term company health.) Hm, let's look at iPhone now. If you look at Apple IR (which I regard as mandatory reading for anyone not trading only on technicals/EW), do the YOY ASP compare again, you'll notice something. I'm not "spoiling" the answers because they're so clear. It IS true that there is a mix-shift trend to cheaper phones. Tim doesn't have an answer ready yet because Apple doesn't work that way, you should all know this by now, like it or not. But don't use the wrong data to back up your points. Huh? What did I say that's wrong? My point is that earnings from iPad + iPad Mini - cannibalization > iPad alone. Is that wrong? If so, it's not a good thing. Of course iPad ASP is down but they also grew sales 65%. Pointing to the iPad Mini as the main problem for lack of earnings growth is simply wrong. It's iPhone. Lower ASP and not much growth. Simple. So your saying Tim Cook lied on the conference call? Unlikely. Look at the basic numbers, iPad sales were up 65%, but iPad revenue was up only 40%, ASP falling from $531 to $449. With the ipad ASP now well below the entry level price of the ipad 9.7" model, it is certain that the iPad mini has indeed cannibalised the full size model. But it had to be done, otherwise it would be apples competitors doing it. And of course the iPad mini has smaller margins than the full size iPad, everyone has said this, including Apple. The iPad is going to have the very toughest year on year comparison in Q3. The current iPad lineup in now in its third quarter, whereas last year Q3 was the first full quarter of iPad 3 availability and inventory build. Not only is it an old lineup vs. last years fresh model, it's also a lower ASP vs last years high ASP. The iPad is going to have to have a large sequential rise just to match last years iPad revenue in Q3, and it would have to have a HUGE sequential rise to even think about matching last years iPad operating income. iPhone ASP is fine for its current place in its product cycle . iPhone margins are down slightly, which some have contributed to suppliers increasing component costs, but I think is from the obvious fact that the entry level iPhone 4 costs significantly more to produce than the iPhone 3GS did as last years entry level model.
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Post by appledoc on Apr 25, 2013 13:33:11 GMT -8
Guidance was crappy, revenue was a small miss, but EPS was a huge beat. Wait until the end of tomorrow to judge WS's true reaction. Just look at trading the day after January earnings to see why. I refuse the play the stock - I've gotten it right and then got crushed because WS just loves this stock. I'd rather be in a Greek tragedy and gouge my eyes out. (Doc - you sound like my hubby - he said he same thing you did....guess we'll see) Now down almost 5%. The indecision since January earnings has to end at some point. Who knows which way though.
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Post by macoz on Apr 25, 2013 13:59:42 GMT -8
Possible reasons for gross margin decline: a. Strengthening US dollar; b. S ham esung raising component prices; c. Deferred revenue effect and lower margin of iPad mini; and d. Appreciating depreciation from recent high capex. You've got it. All 4 are happening in 2013.
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