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Post by Deleted on Apr 28, 2013 3:29:28 GMT -8
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Post by Deleted on Apr 28, 2013 4:44:25 GMT -8
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Post by redinaustin on Apr 28, 2013 5:36:05 GMT -8
More on analysts: AFRO_THUNDER80: Some of These analysts should have some kind of accountability. They can just blurt BS n not have to take responsibility 4 their ignorance. (except he was tweeting about NFL draft analysts. ;D)
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Post by Deleted on Apr 28, 2013 5:38:28 GMT -8
Of all the Android tablets trying to establish a beachhead, I think Sony has a winner with its Xperia Z. It's good to see Sony getting its style mojo back. It also has water resistant qualities, permitting a 30 minute water dunk. The screen and battery are not quite as good, but it's thinner and lighter. Apple's iPad 5 can't come soon enough. The Sony will be available late May at similar price points. The biggest negative is Android -- and an older version no less (4.1). store.sony.com/p/Sony-Tablet%2C-water-resistant%2C-quad-core/en/p/SGP311U1/B
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Post by artman1033 on Apr 28, 2013 5:44:05 GMT -8
Munster on AAPL today:The capstone was a year ago, in a note that ran with the title “Why We Believe Apple Will Be The World’s First Trillion-Dollar Company.” The stock was trading at $618.63, and Munster took his target price up from $718 to $910 per share. In looking back at what he missed, he started with acknowledging that he overestimated the iPhone’s appeal in emerging markets. Here and in Western Europe consumers will pay $400 for a premium smartphone, but they are not so willing to do that in other countries. No excuses, he said, “when we are wrong I feel it, and I take ownership of it.” He started paring back his target price in October, and he has reduced his estimates of sales and earnings, too. He has taken down his estimate of fiscal year 2013 earnings per share from $48.90 at the time of his trillion-dollar company note to $38.81 now.
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Post by lovemyipad on Apr 28, 2013 7:58:58 GMT -8
If we get retrace that holds 398, I vote the f-ing bottom's in! And of course AAPL must hold $398 beyond Monday, or are you thinking past Monday is enough? The next "scary down," whenever that happens. IMHO, if bears can't yank back more than 61.8% of the rope the bulls just reclaimed in this Tug of War, their winning streak has come to an end. At the moment, that line sits at 398. If bulls reclaim more ground from here, that 61.8% adjusts.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 28, 2013 8:08:27 GMT -8
Munster on AAPL today:The capstone was a year ago, in a note that ran with the title “Why We Believe Apple Will Be The World’s First Trillion-Dollar Company.” The stock was trading at $618.63, and Munster took his target price up from $718 to $910 per share. In looking back at what he missed, he started with acknowledging that he overestimated the iPhone’s appeal in emerging markets. Here and in Western Europe consumers will pay $400 for a premium smartphone, but they are not so willing to do that in other countries. No excuses, he said, “when we are wrong I feel it, and I take ownership of it.” He started paring back his target price in October, and he has reduced his estimates of sales and earnings, too. He has taken down his estimate of fiscal year 2013 earnings per share from $48.90 at the time of his trillion-dollar company note to $38.81 now. The point I don't get is AAPL's pricing. Let's assume $39.00 for the year is going to be accurate. If you take the average ISM of Facebook, Google, Amazon, Netflix, Dell, HP and MSFT, then cut it by 2/3rds, then apply that to Apple, you get a price well north of $1,000. None of those firms generates the FCF that Apple does, no hardware manufacturer generates the Gross/Net Margins Apple does, none produce a product with the customer satisfaction or loyalty Apple does. By just about any metric Apple leads its competitors, an the stock trades as though Apple is going out of business.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 28, 2013 8:09:52 GMT -8
And of course AAPL must hold $398 beyond Monday, or are you thinking past Monday is enough? The next "scary down," whenever that happens. IMHO, if bears can't take the ball beyond the 61.8 retrace line (from wherever this upwave ends), their winning streak has come to an end. At the moment, that line sits at 398. If we go higher, that 61.8 line goes higher too. It's hard to see where new selling pressure comes from in the near term. Apple has $60B to repurchase 100m+ shares, which may provide confidence to the institutions (particularly the divvy funds) to reestablish positions. Expectations are low. Price targets have been adjusted. EPS estimates are beatable. And we have Tim Cook mentioning "exciting new products" in the fall and new product categories.
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Post by appledoc on Apr 28, 2013 8:23:40 GMT -8
The next "scary down," whenever that happens. IMHO, if bears can't take the ball beyond the 61.8 retrace line (from wherever this upwave ends), their winning streak has come to an end. At the moment, that line sits at 398. If we go higher, that 61.8 line goes higher too. It's hard to see where new selling pressure comes from in the near term. Apple has $60B to repurchase 100m+ shares, which may provide confidence to the institutions (particularly the divvy funds) to reestablish positions. Expectations are low. Price targets have been adjusted. EPS estimates are beatable. And we have Tim Cook mentioning "exciting new products" in the fall and new product categories. Very bad Q3 numbers would do the trick. I don't think PO's guidance has quite settled in with WS yet.
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Post by lovemyipad on Apr 28, 2013 8:27:03 GMT -8
Mercel, I am rarely able to see the "why," and even when I think I can, it's not like I can prove it. So these days, I leave the explanatory narrative up to others. I just monitor the crowd psychology as it unfolds in real time. If x happens, then expect y. If a happens, then expect b.
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icam
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Post by icam on Apr 28, 2013 8:28:51 GMT -8
Very....Very interesting.
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Post by rickag on Apr 28, 2013 8:38:14 GMT -8
My favorite post to this article, "8:32 pm April 27, 2013 Don108 wrote: Stock analysts are like carnival fortune tellers, only they’re not as accurate or as entertaining.". Kodos to Don108, made me laugh.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 28, 2013 8:38:31 GMT -8
It's hard to see where new selling pressure comes from in the near term. Apple has $60B to repurchase 100m+ shares, which may provide confidence to the institutions (particularly the divvy funds) to reestablish positions. Expectations are low. Price targets have been adjusted. EPS estimates are beatable. And we have Tim Cook mentioning "exciting new products" in the fall and new product categories. Very bad Q3 numbers would do the trick. I don't think PO's guidance has quite settled in with WS yet. Au contraire. Not only did WS have June guidance worked up prior to the earnings call, eager to compare with Apple's actual guidance, a MAJORITY of analysts from all the institutions that count released their reactions en masse on Wednesday, along with price target adjustments. Happy reading. tech.fortune.cnn.com/2013/04/24/apple-earnings-analysts-reactions/
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Post by lovemyipad on Apr 28, 2013 8:46:13 GMT -8
Interesting OI for this week's weeklies! Comparatively huge OI on the 390 puts.
Mercel, can you do that cut & paste thingy you do?
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Post by Deleted on Apr 28, 2013 9:08:18 GMT -8
Interesting OI for this week's weeklies! Comparatively huge OI on the 390 puts. Mercel, can you do that cut & paste thingy you do? Good to see puts building, of course. I think AAPL has a good chance to rise this week.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 28, 2013 11:10:00 GMT -8
Well, I guess we need tonic to Mercel's Bull+ nature.
But please. Not settled in yet? Then they must be pretty dense, because I'm pretty dense and I already know all-things-being-equal implied EPS is in the neighborhood of $7...
And guess what? This time around, analysts have been very quick to adjust! Look at the consensus estimates for the June quarter already (see Yahoo! Finance).
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Post by rickag on Apr 28, 2013 11:49:43 GMT -8
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Post by Deleted on Apr 28, 2013 11:53:31 GMT -8
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Post by Deleted on Apr 28, 2013 12:06:18 GMT -8
Interesting OI for this week's weeklies! Comparatively huge OI on the 390 puts. Mercel, can you do that cut & paste thingy you do? If my crystal ball is working, I see a melt up to $500 between now and WWDC. Then, we're back to "show me." That's my WAG, anyway. Consider this: If you were Apple management and you were confident in the product pipeline and seeking to repurchase shares with $60B, wouldn't you be more interested in repurchasing shares at $400 - $500 than > $500? Perhaps that's why the concentration in open interest includes 50k call contracts at $500 and 27k put contracts in June.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 28, 2013 12:33:29 GMT -8
AT&T store activity is average for a Sunday. No apparent buzz around the Samsung GS4 units on display. I really expected more interest around the launch.
I'm reminded of what the AT&T rep said 2 weeks ago: If Apple launched a 4.9" iPhone, it would CRUSH Android. His words, not mine. And he's an Android user...
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Post by artman1033 on Apr 28, 2013 12:45:14 GMT -8
new linkGOOGLE liked it so much, they put it on YOU TUBE Apple makes Apples. Microsoft makes a fruit bowl. HERE is Microsoft's Productivity Future Vision (2011). It has GOOGLE Glass Cars with suicide doors. Size looks similar to iPhone
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Post by Deleted on Apr 28, 2013 18:11:35 GMT -8
Anyone notice an increase in calls and puts opened Friday for June at the 500 strike? Approx. 20k call and put contracts were bought (and sold) and resembles a straddle. The straddle is red if share price lands between $417 and $577 in June, so it would seem quite bearish given Apple's new $60B repurchase weapon.
I sure wish I knew if the puts were sold by Apple. Would Apple even participate in this kind of option trading?
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Post by lovemyipad on Apr 28, 2013 18:25:37 GMT -8
Mercel, short straddle anticipating a volatility drop? Or a synthethic short (long puts, short calls)? Or a synthetic long (long calls, short puts)?
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Post by Deleted on Apr 28, 2013 18:31:51 GMT -8
Mercel, short straddle anticipating a volatility drop? Or a synthethic short (long puts, short calls)? The buyer would lose with a volatility drop given the range that produces a loss. The winning straddle expects an increase in volatility. I don't see Apple participating in this sort of thing, do you?
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Post by lovemyipad on Apr 28, 2013 18:34:00 GMT -8
Mercel, highly doubt it would be Apple.
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Post by BillH on Apr 28, 2013 18:45:20 GMT -8
Expectations are low. Price targets have been adjusted. EPS estimates are beatable. And we have Tim Cook mentioning "exciting new products" in the fall and new product categories. This should do it. I'm a lot more bullish moving forward from here.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 28, 2013 18:45:57 GMT -8
Mercel, highly doubt it would be Apple. A increase in calls of this order would be very bullish. The purchase on Friday represents 40% of the open calls in June at $500. The offsetting puts make it curious. Normally, Travis comments on this sort of thing. I'm sure he noted it but he clammed up, not even a tweet. Odd.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Apr 28, 2013 18:52:42 GMT -8
Scott Redler just tweeted: @reddogt3live: My trip will be a bit more pleasant if $aapl sees $424ish then $429 before $413 in the next two sessions. We shall see... ----------- Mercel, Maybe Travis was in on those puts....
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Post by Deleted on Apr 28, 2013 19:08:12 GMT -8
Scott Redler just tweeted: @reddogt3live: My trip will be a bit more pleasant if $aapl sees $424ish then $429 before $413 in the next two sessions. We shall see... ----------- Mercel, Maybe Travis was in on those puts.... His silence on this is deafening. 20k put contracts sold at $90 is $180M. That's a lot of scratch for Poorman Algo. ;D
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 29, 2013 0:37:39 GMT -8
Selling puts requires metric tons of capital, y'know
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