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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 25, 2012 16:36:58 GMT -8
Technicals types, is support not "really" support if a stock doesn't bounce off it like 10 times? Yep. But bounces from either direction. Former resistance can convert to support. Like that area in the 620s that we knocked our heads against numerous times.
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Sept 25, 2012 16:38:10 GMT -8
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Post by Gridlock on Sept 25, 2012 16:44:15 GMT -8
Haven't seen this mentioned: www.cultofmac.com/192828/new-iphone-5-chip-means-it-might-come-to-china-mobiles-700-million-customers/New iPhone 5 Chip Means It Might Come To China Mobile’s 700 Million Customers "The iPhone 5 is packed with all sorts of neat new hardware internals that Apple has poured their energy and R&D dollars into. Its camera is ridiculously thin, and the processor has been custom designed and manually layed out for maximum efficiency, but there’s another new hardware feature no one’s talking about. One secret of the iPhone 5 is that it contains a chip that may have been included just so it will work on the world’s largest mobile carrier – China Mobile – giving Apple access to 700 million new potential customers. China Mobile’s 3G network uses a proprietary standard called TD-SCDMA. While previous iPhones haven’t supported TD-SCDMA, the iPhone 5 is carrying a Qualcomm modem that can communicate with China Mobile’s proprietary network, clearing the way for Apple to tap into China Mobile’s monstrous 700 million customer base. Apple doesn’t have an agreement with China Mobile yet, but Tim Cook has visited the China Mobile home offices earlier this year to secure a deal. Apple currently offers the iPhone on China Unicom and China Telecom. Securing a deal with China Mobile could allow Apple to sell 20-30 million more iPhone in 2013."
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Post by roni on Sept 25, 2012 16:44:30 GMT -8
Ouch I am okay, but took some losses. Have some powder and am not selling here.
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Post by adamthompson32 on Sept 25, 2012 16:48:40 GMT -8
By the way folks - Jon Najarian said again today that he expects AAPL should be releasing international launch numbers. Does anyone recall if that is customary...I just can't remember what was done with the 4S? I don't think it's ever happened, at least not for the last few years. They announce opening weekend and then go silent and you never get another SKU specific number.
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Post by dmiller on Sept 25, 2012 17:17:40 GMT -8
I know they had a iOS 6 beta for developers, but maybe a good move would have been to release 'iMaps' as a beta to the general public earlier in the year running on iOS 5, so they could have had million of testers correcting map errors without complaints (because its a beta), while still having the old google based maps as backup until the switchover to iOS 6. Oh well, too late now - I'm sure the major errors will be fixed ASAP. I think the problem would have been, how many would have actually used it that way, with more missing data than in the first actual iOS6 release, more bugs, and the only reason to try? The novelty of Flyover (which wouldn't have helped) and turn-by-turn. It would have gotten a bad name earlier in an even-less-finished state and then there would have been pressure to hold off on releasing it until it was "as good as" Google maps, which would have been... when? By doing this, they would have lost control of this and let public opinion take over. Not wise. Much more to lose, not much to gain, really. I think they've done this the only way that's made sense.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 25, 2012 17:31:18 GMT -8
This is what the shorts want, crush you psychologically, get you to capitulate. Yes the FUDsters rocked the stock, but I really doubt the MM's want to pay off all those puts that will be growing this week. Must fight fear and consider the load of puts opening up as rocket fuel. I don't have the intestinal fortitude for weeklies (or unhedged calls), but I think this is a buying opp for longer out. iPhone 5 = biggest phone launch in history. By far. Eventually, the truth on that will come out. Put/Call ratio peaked on Friday at .98:1. Since then it has dropped to .85:1 (yesterday) before bouncing up to .89:1 today. That's a huge drop in interest. It looks to me as though the Bears are retreating back into the woods.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 25, 2012 17:40:34 GMT -8
I think the problem would have been, how many would have actually used it that way, with more missing data than in the first actual iOS6 release, more bugs, and the only reason to try? The novelty of Flyover (which wouldn't have helped) and turn-by-turn. It would have gotten a bad name earlier in an even-less-finished state and then there would have been pressure to hold off on releasing it until it was "as good as" Google maps, which would have been... when? By doing this, they would have lost control of this and let public opinion take over. Not wise. Much more to lose, not much to gain, really. I think they've done this the only way that's made sense. I agree. I can't get over how we all react to media/blogger/pundit opinion of the slightest "misstep" by Apple. Who cares? This, like antennagate, has to rank among the world's biggest non-issues. And just like antenna gate, this will be nothing more than a footnote in history, in about 2 weeks.
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 25, 2012 17:47:15 GMT -8
I just want to tell the board that I just bit my tongue and didn't post what I was going to post here. go ahead and post your thoughts and opinions on how I trade. No need to hold anything back. Take it to Private Messages, boys. I don't want to see it.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 25, 2012 18:39:08 GMT -8
Technicals types, is support not "really" support if a stock doesn't bounce off it like 10 times? Yep. But bounces from either direction. Former resistance can convert to support. Like that area in the 620s that we knocked our heads against numerous times. Wait...how does resistance turn into support on a clean break above it and no real revisitation of that level, say on a retrace? I know, I'm a total amateur at technicals, but I'd think that level would have to be tested on both sides at least.
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Sept 25, 2012 18:53:20 GMT -8
M'kay, so far, it looks like a 685-689.99 pain range this week. Strike | Calls | Puts | 670 | 3,225 | 14,796 | 675 | 6,119 | 11,154 | 680 | 7,332 | 11,272 | 685 | 7,631 | 9,743 | 690 | 14,320 | 9,838 | 695 | 12,017 | 5,467 | 700 | 19,306 | 6,338 |
Sometimes, pain can be your friend.
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 25, 2012 18:56:57 GMT -8
Yep. But bounces from either direction. Former resistance can convert to support. Like that area in the 620s that we knocked our heads against numerous times. Wait...how does resistance turn into support on a clean break above it and no real revisitation of that level, say on a retrace? I know, I'm a total amateur at technicals, but I'd think that level would have to be tested on both sides at least. Exactly -- you got it! Must be retested from the other side. And that's how it converts to support...on the retrace/retest. That's what happens during consolidation periods...we retest and retest and retest... And yes, there are certain areas we never retested...we just sailed right through...like 430-485. Sometimes, it's like that. Most times, not so much. Right now, the 650s should provide strong support...we've bounced there enough times, we should not just fall right through there EVER. It *should* be a battle. Those are all "shoulds." That said, below there: empty space to 625-ish...no "known" support levels in between.
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Post by sponge on Sept 25, 2012 19:01:13 GMT -8
I love my new iPhone 5.
If we drop below 650 tomorrow I will sell common and buy April 13 calls.
Great unnecessary sale right now.
This iPhone will beat them all.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 25, 2012 19:04:13 GMT -8
Agree!
The question is, how far along are we in this WTF sale.
Because I'm convictionless, I'll keep waiting for more data points before I add to my existing (small) AAPL trades. But I _am_ looking into a short play on GOOG soon, possibly. Mercel might be amused to know (forget if he was ever long GOOG) that some traders are seeing a topping pattern. I think I can see a little AAPL Apr '12 in there myself. *evil grin*
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 25, 2012 19:05:27 GMT -8
I love my new iPhone 5. If we drop below 650 tomorrow I will sell common and buy April 13 calls. Great unnecessary sale right now. This iPhone will beat them all. Spongie, how about JAN'14? I like JAN'14 for unhedged calls.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 25, 2012 19:09:12 GMT -8
I _don't_ like VXAPL (proxy for IV levels) though.
Did you guys see how much it spiked end of day?! High 20s was high enough relative to recent levels...
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 25, 2012 19:09:47 GMT -8
Agree! The question is, how far along are we in this WTF sale. Because I'm convictionless, I'll keep waiting for more data points before I add to my existing (small) AAPL trades. But I _am_ looking into a short play on GOOG soon, possibly. Mercel might be amused to know (forget if he was ever long GOOG) that some traders are seeing a topping pattern. I think I can see a little AAPL Apr '12 in there myself. *evil grin* My inflated/deflated/reflated .02... We should get an oversold bounce at the very least very soon, likely tomorrow. That's a good time to "start" a hedge if you don't already have one and/or lighten up on short-term longs, especially the unhedged ones ( ). I'd wait for the daily lower Bollinger Band to back up the truck. I don't know when we'll see it, or what level it will be, but once a quarter, we go there...and my challenge is always to make sure I haven't emptied my purse buying everything in sight before then!
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Post by mbeauch on Sept 25, 2012 19:10:52 GMT -8
M'kay, so far, it looks like a 685-689.99 pain range this week. Strike | Calls | Puts | 670 | 3,225 | 14,796 | 675 | 6,119 | 11,154 | 680 | 7,332 | 11,272 | 685 | 7,631 | 9,743 | 690 | 14,320 | 9,838 | 695 | 12,017 | 5,467 | 700 | 19,306 | 6,338 |
Sometimes, pain can be your friend. I hope you are right JD. I am going to be watching the S&P and the 1438 level. I was hoping, (not a good strategy : , for the 683 to hold. I would expect that pain range to change even more tomorrow. Right now I would take 685-690 as the close on Friday. Would make the weekend less stressful. The big thing is to hold 1420 on the S&P. I am sticking with my election theory until proven faulty.
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Post by mbeauch on Sept 25, 2012 19:12:31 GMT -8
I _don't_ like VXAPL (proxy for IV levels) though. Did you guys see how much it spiked end of day?! High 20s was high enough relative to recent levels... I look at it every day, the spike was suspect to say the least.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 25, 2012 19:12:59 GMT -8
Sorry, I need a quick refresher on pain range...
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Post by johng on Sept 25, 2012 19:20:12 GMT -8
My inflated/deflated/reflated .02... We should get an oversold bounce at the very least very soon, likely tomorrow. That's a good time to "start" a hedge if you don't already have one and/or lighten up on short-term longs, especially the unhedged ones ( ). I'd wait for the daily lower Bollinger Band to back up the truck. I don't know when we'll see it, or what level it will be, but once a quarter, we go there...and my challenge is always to make sure I haven't emptied my purse buying everything in sight before then! This is really excellent advice! I'll be looking for a lower Bollie excursion before backing up the truck. If it doesn't happen I'm OK with that also! big cheers to the longs JohnG
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Post by Zeke on Sept 25, 2012 20:09:54 GMT -8
More from Scott Redler: Scott Redler on AAPLExcerpt: Historically, the best way to approach Apple (AAPL) has been as a buy-and-hold investor. Every sale has been a bad one over the years, especially if you didn’t get back in! If you’ve held AAPL for the past decade you would have participated in one of the biggest winners in market history.That would be me. ;D
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Post by Deleted on Sept 25, 2012 20:17:44 GMT -8
I _don't_ like VXAPL (proxy for IV levels) though. Did you guys see how much it spiked end of day?! High 20s was high enough relative to recent levels... I look at it every day, the spike was suspect to say the least. Apple took a big dive near end of day - is VXAPL simply calculated on share price movement and speed of the price movement? I don't know, just asking.
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Post by Luckychoices on Sept 25, 2012 20:24:41 GMT -8
More from Scott Redler: Scott Redler on AAPLExcerpt: Historically, the best way to approach Apple (AAPL) has been as a buy-and-hold investor. Every sale has been a bad one over the years, especially if you didn’t get back in! If you’ve held AAPL for the past decade you would have participated in one of the biggest winners in market history.That would be me. ;D Well it's good to be a "buy and holder" over the last two days. But multiplying one's number of shares by 26 still gets a person's attention. At least it gets mine...
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Post by v10king on Sept 25, 2012 20:30:01 GMT -8
I look at it every day, the spike was suspect to say the least. Apple took a big dive near end of day - is VXAPL simply calculated on share price movement and speed of the price movement? I don't know, just asking. My take on VXAPL and really ultimately AAPL IV is that if the price of AAPL drops so fast as it did today, with the IV at typical lows for AAPL the calls are really cheap. The MM's drive the IV up to offset the really low costs (lower price + low IV). I was just saying how one trade I have was sitting at +50% the other day and I needed 704.00 for that price. Now with current IV, I only need 693 for the same +50% since IV was driven up. I know what happens though, AAPL slingshots up and the IV stays high which leads to the calls becoming way more expensive quick. Just my observations over the years from watching this thing everyday.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Sept 25, 2012 21:14:36 GMT -8
Star fleet has me in, of all places, Belgrade Serbia this week. Economic summit.
Thanks, RG for the Star Trek clip.
Internet infrastructure here is not quite what we are all used to...sporadic and slow with periodic drops and translation challenges. I'm recruiting here, Lovey, as iPhones are very popular as are iPads. The awareness of the iPhone 5 is quite high, but Serbia won't be on the list for a bit. Nokia, Lg, Samsung cheaper handsets most common.
Apple price action is frustrating but I think we have all seen this show before. Plan the play and play the plan.
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Post by mstefa on Sept 25, 2012 21:51:17 GMT -8
Star fleet has me in, of all places, Belgrade Serbia this week. Economic summit. Thanks, RG for the Star Trek clip. Internet infrastructure here is not quite what we are all used to...sporadic and slow with periodic drops and translation challenges. I'm recruiting here, Lovey, as iPhones are very popular as are iPads. The awareness of the iPhone 5 is quite high, but Serbia won't be on the list for a bit. Nokia, Lg, Samsung cheaper handsets most common. Apple price action is frustrating but I think we have all seen this show before. Plan the play and play the plan. well look at that..I'm from Belgrade myself originally. What are you recruiting for? You can get a fast wireless USB / cell plan with lots of data for 50ish dollars a month with no commitment. buy once and use while there. Let me know if you need anything I can help with almost anything there.
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Post by mjuarez on Sept 25, 2012 22:01:15 GMT -8
M'kay, so far, it looks like a 685-689.99 pain range this week. Strike | Calls | Puts | 670 | 3,225 | 14,796 | 675 | 6,119 | 11,154 | 680 | 7,332 | 11,272 | 685 | 7,631 | 9,743 | 690 | 14,320 | 9,838 | 695 | 12,017 | 5,467 | 700 | 19,306 | 6,338 |
Sometimes, pain can be your friend. I'd love for AAPL to get pinned this week then!
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Sept 25, 2012 22:14:31 GMT -8
Star fleet has me in, of all places, Belgrade Serbia this week. Economic summit. Thanks, RG for the Star Trek clip. Internet infrastructure here is not quite what we are all used to...sporadic and slow with periodic drops and translation challenges. I'm recruiting here, Lovey, as iPhones are very popular as are iPads. The awareness of the iPhone 5 is quite high, but Serbia won't be on the list for a bit. Nokia, Lg, Samsung cheaper handsets most common. Apple price action is frustrating but I think we have all seen this show before. Plan the play and play the plan. well look at that..I'm from Belgrade myself originally. What are you recruiting for? You can get a fast wireless USB / cell plan with lots of data for 50ish dollars a month with no commitment. buy once and use while there. Let me know if you need anything I can help with almost anything there. Thank you, and let me say that I am thoroughly enjoying your home town. The confluence of the Danube and the Sava rivers is a beautiful sight. I am here with a group interested in infrastructure investment....roads, bridges, water, power...Serbia is treating us very well......and lo and behold, our attaché just helped us juice up our data speeds, so all is well. I agree with those who see the recent price action as SPY driven. Here's for a bounce.... Now on to Marshall Tito's tomb....then more speeches....
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 25, 2012 23:10:16 GMT -8
SPY driven wha?
I will entertain your conspiracy theories...for today. *tinfoilhat*
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