|
|
Post by appledoc on Apr 29, 2013 9:01:06 GMT -8
Seeing the possibilities of the noontime reversal. No more being greedy. 3x 430 May 3 Call In @ 2.15, Out @ 7.05. Excellent trade. Excellent call to get out. Congrats! |
|
|
|
Post by qualitywte on Apr 29, 2013 9:10:36 GMT -8
The daily graph looks like a rocket, is the buyback really that much of a factor? "This makes me wonder what the value of Apple would be if it were broke into the following parts: OS (iOS and OSX) Computers (desktop and laptop) Retail stores IPod IPhone IPad ITunes Store There are many comparable firms in each category to do comparison valuations with. But keep in mind that none of those comparables are generating the gross margins Apple does, is expanding market share, or has the cash on hand as does Apple. Then there is Apple's patent/IP portfolio, brand and customer satisfaction/loyalty rankings" If you look at it one way, the buyback is like a $60B acquisition. Maybe equivalent to taking iTunes or one of the other components private? |
|
|
|
Post by tuffett on Apr 29, 2013 9:18:35 GMT -8
Google glasses demo on CNBC .... Utterly moronic. I would think there is potential but this makes no sense .... they have a long way to go on these. That is the point, really. Apple was working on the iPad since 2003 and we never saw it until 2010. Google hype something and the world and his dog are beta testers. Look how long it took Android to get something resembling smooth scrolling on the devices. 5 software updates and 3 or so years of chip development. I always found "Project Butter" to be quite amusing. Five years into the new era of smartphones and Google finally starts working on smooth scrolling. Welcome to 2007. Hilarious. |
|
|
|
Post by phoebear611 on Apr 29, 2013 9:20:02 GMT -8
Shaw Wu either left or was let go from Sterne Agee.
|
|
|
|
Post by moltenfire on Apr 29, 2013 9:26:20 GMT -8
Looking at the broader market, everything on my watch list is green. Maybe this rally isn't Apple specific?
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Apr 29, 2013 9:30:51 GMT -8
Now this? THIS is a pro gap...candidate. Very nice green day so far! Yes, it is, but i'm thinking today's run up has run out of gas (intraday high $433.62), unless we see Bulls sneaking in at end of day. Volume looks like its going to peak at about 22 MM, a drop of ~20% from Friday's volume. Tomorrow is going to be very telling. |
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Apr 29, 2013 9:36:21 GMT -8
Uh...what did you _expect_ the rally to top out at? This isn't AMZN or NFLX after all, except on down days.
Nothing wrong with a healthy retrace of the move. Because it's a big move. A little digestion would be just fine.
|
|
|
|
Post by bud777 on Apr 29, 2013 9:47:15 GMT -8
arent we at the level where we people said they were going to sell, because we are going to top out and then go back down to make a new bottom. then get back in? or has that changed? I don't like this feeling. I WANT to believe this is the long awaited breakout, but I've been down this road a couple of times, only to discover its an expensive dead end. What are others feeling? As I move ahead with the mortgage, I have a window of now until the next ex-dividend date to jump off the ledge. The whole idea falls apart at about 440, so I am feeling ambivalent. If we go up, the 1000 shares I am holding do well, if we drop back to 400, I can proceed with the original plan. I don't remember a time when I watched the stock movement with such peace of mind. I think my blood pressure has dropped about 30 points. |
|
|
|
Post by dreamRaj on Apr 29, 2013 9:48:17 GMT -8
Got out of May Week 1 calls with a couple grand profit. OTOH, I still have 15K invested in the monthly May 500 calls with an average purchase price of 5.85. Sadly, they're at 0.27 right now. But hey, you never know!
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Apr 29, 2013 11:22:10 GMT -8
Now this? THIS is a pro gap...candidate. Very nice green day so far! Yes, it is, but i'm thinking today's run up has run out of gas (intraday high $433.62), unless we see Bulls sneaking in at end of day. Volume looks like its going to peak at about 22 MM, a drop of ~20% from Friday's volume. Tomorrow is going to be very telling. My initial estimate for today's volume looks like its going to be a couple million shares high. That would make today's volume ~25% less than Friday's. |
|
|
|
Post by appledoc on Apr 29, 2013 11:25:25 GMT -8
I echo Mav's earlier sentiment that the 50 day doesn't need to be toppled at first approach.
|
|
|
|
Post by podboy on Apr 29, 2013 11:34:58 GMT -8
AAPL broke the 50 EMA around 460 late last month, only to fall below after it broke. I'm not real good with TA so I know its important but doesn't mean this isn't a suckers rally again.
|
|
|
|
Post by nathanstevens on Apr 29, 2013 11:35:54 GMT -8
|
|
|
|
Post by longsince98 on Apr 29, 2013 13:23:23 GMT -8
Hi there.. I know very little about technical trading, and was wondering if someone could answer a question about gaps. I see the term used in both what I perceive as positive contexts (could be gap and go today) as well as negative contexts (gap to fill way down at X). My limited knowledge makes me feel that the positive existence of the former foreshadows a future negative event due to the latter. If someone could shed some light, I'd appreciate it. Thanks
|
|
|
|
Post by lovemyipad on Apr 29, 2013 13:41:52 GMT -8
Hi there.. I know very little about technical trading, and was wondering if someone could answer a question about gaps. I see the term used in both what I perceive as positive contexts (could be gap and go today) as well as negative contexts (gap to fill way down at X). My limited knowledge makes me feel that the positive existence of the former foreshadows a future negative event due to the latter. If someone could shed some light, I'd appreciate it. Thanks For intraday and very, very short-term purposes, an unfilled gap tends to mean continuation -- which gets folks excited when it's a gap UP. But that same unfilled gap (pothole) has a tendency to be filled next time we're in the neighborhood -- which gets paranoid types like myself, well, paranoid. So here, while I'm very excited about the UP potential, I'm thinking: the higher we go, the more it will hurt if/when we fill that gap. And people will always say that all gaps don't have to be filled -- it's not a hard-and-fast rule -- and there's some gap back at like 100. Which is true. It's just a tendency. A tendency that's held since January 2011, and therefore makes me paranoid.  |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Apr 29, 2013 13:45:30 GMT -8
Hi there.. I know very little about technical trading, and was wondering if someone could answer a question about gaps. I see the term used in both what I perceive as positive contexts (could be gap and go today) as well as negative contexts (gap to fill way down at X). My limited knowledge makes me feel that the positive existence of the former foreshadows a future negative event due to the latter. If someone could shed some light, I'd appreciate it. Thanks For intraday and very, very short-term purposes, an unfilled gap tends to mean continuation -- which gets folks excited when it's a gap UP. But that same unfilled gap has a tendency to be filled next time we're in the neighborhood -- which gets paranoid types like myself, well, paranoid. So here, while I'm very excited about the UP potential, I'm thinking: the higher we go, the more it will hurt if/when we fill that gap. And people will always say that all gaps don't have to be filled -- it's not a hard-and-fast rule. Which is true. It's just a tendency. A tendency that makes me paranoid. So short term = good...but we'll most likely fill the gap below from this morning at some point? So I don't have to be annoyed that the money I was transferring in from last week has missed the boat on the last $30 or so. I was looking at getting into some Jan 15 450/500 BCS, they were around $12 when I wanted to buy, so I transferred money in and now they're around $16  |
|
|
|
Post by lovemyipad on Apr 29, 2013 13:47:30 GMT -8
AAPL broke the 50 EMA around 460 late last month, only to fall below after it broke. I'm not real good with TA so I know its important but doesn't mean this isn't a suckers rally again. Yes. While I *love* today's strength, I remain cautious of yet another suckers' rally. Here's how I measure things (just ONE way to do it):  Note: we COULD have a potential IHS (inverse head & shoulders) setting up here. That is BULLISH. So short term = good...but we'll most likely fill the gap below from this morning at some point? So I don't have to be annoyed that the money I was transferring in from last week has missed the boat on the last $30 or so. I was looking at getting into some Jan 15 450/500 BCS, they were around $12 when I wanted to buy, so I transferred money in and now they're around $16 My mindset is: until proven otherwise, expect that gap to be filled...we just don't know WHEN. Could be sooner, could be later. I always prefer sooner because later hurts a whole lot more. ( Never would also be nice, but that hasn't worked out for me yet.) I echo Mav's earlier sentiment that the 50 day doesn't need to be toppled at first approach. Yes, and usually first test of support/resistance holds. Needs another crack to break. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Apr 29, 2013 13:48:02 GMT -8
Yes, it is, but i'm thinking today's run up has run out of gas (intraday high $433.62), unless we see Bulls sneaking in at end of day. Volume looks like its going to peak at about 22 MM, a drop of ~20% from Friday's volume. Tomorrow is going to be very telling. My initial estimate for today's volume looks like its going to be a couple million shares high. That would make today's volume ~25% less than Friday's. Well my second guess turned out to be a dud, while the first one turned out to be a little low (a good thing). Actual drop in volume was ~16%. I'm going to compare that to prior periods. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Apr 29, 2013 13:54:47 GMT -8
AAPL broke the 50 EMA around 460 late last month, only to fall below after it broke. I'm not real good with TA so I know its important but doesn't mean this isn't a suckers rally again. Yes. While I *love* today's strength, I remain cautious of yet another suckers' rally. Here's how I measure things (just ONE way to do it): Note: we COULD have a potential IHS (inverse head & shoulders) setting up here. That is BULLISH. What points did you use to generate $403.xx as a 61.8% retrace? And what points did you use for the next target? |
|
|
|
Post by lovemyipad on Apr 29, 2013 14:01:24 GMT -8
Tried to show the points and the whole Fib grid on this one. Can you decipher through the mess? Make sense?  Gregg: Rule of thumb: if it's NOT faded in first 90 minutes, then expect continuation. Does this count: up $10+ at 10:41 AM  It never even tried to challenge the gap. YES!!!!!!!!!! |
|
|
|
Post by ericinaustin on Apr 29, 2013 14:28:59 GMT -8
" yesss..."
It seems like forever since we had a weee day. I guess " yessss". Will do for now.
|
|
|
|
Post by lovemyipad on Apr 29, 2013 14:29:10 GMT -8
Catalysts ($60B repurchase gun) trump technicals. But I'm in favor of jumping above the appropriate lines. ;D "Trumping" technicals is a misnomer. If the catalyst is a catalyst, we'll see it in the technicals. The technicals will reflect whatever is happening. I don't like this feeling. I WANT to believe this is the long awaited breakout, but I've been down this road a couple of times, only to discover its an expensive dead end. What are others feeling? Exact same thing. " yesss..." It seems like forever since we had a weee day. I guess " yessss". Will do for now. I will wheeeee above 469.95 Seeing the possibilities of the noontime reversal. No more being greedy. 3x 430 May 3 Call In @ 2.15, Out @ 7.05. WAY TO GO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!  |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Apr 29, 2013 14:45:25 GMT -8
Catalysts ($60B repurchase gun) trump technicals. But I'm in favor of jumping above the appropriate lines. ;D "Trumping" technicals is a misnomer. If the catalyst is a catalyst, we'll see it in the technicals. The technicals will reflect whatever is happening. We can agree to disagree I hope. If you say technicals takes into account whatever is happening, that really doesn't allow anyone to test such a hypothesis. In other words, it doesn't offer any predictive value when one says TA accounts for "whatever is happening." That's akin to saying: "Everything is up.." or something like it. Those claiming it's safe to re-enter Apple at $450, are betting on past patterns, not the underlying legitimacy of current reasons/catalysts driving it to $450 in the first place. If I knew more people traded on TA than didn't in the market -- then it becomes partly self-fulfilling. Everyone says: "Ah, now, we have $450, buy, buy buy..." Stock goes up. It's not very reassuring. I listen to TA, but I don't see that it saved anyone from the past 6 months, nor for that matter did trusting fundamentals do anything for me. |
|
|
|
Post by appledoc on Apr 29, 2013 14:55:28 GMT -8
I listen to TA, but I don't see that it saved anyone from the past 6 months, nor for that matter did trusting fundamentals do anything for me. TA saved a lot of people. They just don't happen to be on this board  |
|
|
|
Post by lovemyipad on Apr 29, 2013 14:57:28 GMT -8
In other words, it doesn't offer any predictive value when one says TA accounts for "whatever is happening." That's akin to saying: "Everything is up.." or something like it. EXACTLY!!!!!!!!!!!!! I've said all along: technicals are NOT predictive; they are indicative. They tell you what has happened, and what IS happening in the MOMENT. You can say, "if everything stays just like this, then blah, blah, blah would likely happen." But markets are dynamic, not static, so anything can change anytime. And then, the technicals would CHANGE. Those claiming it's safe to re-enter Apple at $450, are betting on past patterns, not the underlying legitimacy of current reasons/catalysts driving it to $450 in the first place. Did ya even LOOK at my pretty, pretty chart that I made just for YOU the other day?? The "are we there yet??" chart. It has nothing to do with past patterns and everything to do with the NOW and forever. It's just ONE WAY of measuring bull power versus bear power -- imagine the rope in Tug of War. Same deal. Those claiming it may be safer to enter at xxx level = bulls have demonstrated at that level they have adequate kahunas = buyers' desire to buy > sellers' desire to sell for whatever reason. Otherwise, you have a heightened risk of Lucy pulling the football away from Charlie Brown: "same sh*t, different day." |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Apr 29, 2013 15:25:34 GMT -8
I listen to TA, but I don't see that it saved anyone from the past 6 months, nor for that matter did trusting fundamentals do anything for me. TA saved a lot of people. They just don't happen to be on this board AFB is serving up some kind of TA antidote, eh? Verrrry interesting, and I was about to rename this the ATB. ;D |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Apr 29, 2013 15:28:50 GMT -8
In other words, it doesn't offer any predictive value when one says TA accounts for "whatever is happening." That's akin to saying: "Everything is up.." or something like it. EXACTLY!!!!!!!!!!!!! I've said all along: technicals are NOT predictive; they are indicative. They tell you what has happened, and what IS happening in the MOMENT. You can say, "if everything stays just like this, then blah, blah, blah would likely happen." But markets are dynamic, not static, so anything can change anytime. And then, the technicals would CHANGE. Those claiming it's safe to re-enter Apple at $450, are betting on past patterns, not the underlying legitimacy of current reasons/catalysts driving it to $450 in the first place. Did ya even LOOK at my pretty, pretty chart that I made just for YOU the other day?? The "are we there yet??" chart. It has nothing to do with past patterns and everything to do with the NOW and forever. It's just ONE WAY of measuring bull power versus bear power -- imagine the rope in Tug of War. Same deal. Those claiming it may be safer to enter at xxx level = bulls have demonstrated at that level they have adequate kahunas = buyers' desire to buy > sellers' desire to sell for whatever reason. Otherwise, you have a heightened risk of Lucy pulling the football away from Charlie Brown: "same sh*t, different day." Lovey, I only look at my charts. ;D j/k! I get distracted easily and must show more discipline in the future -- in other words, I promise to be a better grasshopper on this topic. YOU say they aren't predictive (and are careful, properly, indicating this fact), but the context of what I read here on occasion has the distinct look of Nostradamus (and no, I'm not alluding to Spongie's machine gun price targets...). |
|
|
|
Post by appledoc on Apr 29, 2013 15:52:59 GMT -8
Speaking of EW only, it's entirely predictive of possibilities. It's up to the Elliotician to figure out which possibility is most likely. To me, the charts at the moment still say a new low is most likely. I've been preaching that since January 23. But that could change tomorrow.
Trust me when I say that I cannot wait to call a bottom again. Last time I did so was December 31.
|
|
|
|
Post by mace on Apr 29, 2013 16:10:13 GMT -8
Trust me when I say that I cannot wait to call a bottom again. Even the darkest night will end and the sun will rise. Don't overslept and miss the beautiful sunrise. |
|
|
|
Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Apr 29, 2013 16:20:58 GMT -8
O.K.....When Mace, AppleDoc, Mav and Lovey all declare: The Bottom Is In.......  I'm going out and parrrrty.......... Mercel, I know a place.......  |
|
