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Post by lovemyipad on May 4, 2013 6:15:29 GMT -8
iPad, I'm trialing motivewave because I see that you've been using that software for your charts. Which edition and data provider do you use? YAY! I have the everything-and-the-kitchen-sink version, but Doc likes the Analyst version just fine. For data provider, I just use the free Yahoo/Google option.
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Post by Deleted on May 4, 2013 6:22:49 GMT -8
Mercel, you were sick and you didn't call.?? I would have come over with chicken soup and We could have used your Apple TV to stream Asian movies starring........what's her name. If that didn't work we could have watched all eight seasons of Star Trek TNG..... While convalescing, Apple TV and Netflix were indispensable . I felt like Howard Hughes watching Ice Station Zebra 1,000 times, except I favored "The Shooter." Oh, and The Transporter (did you know that Shu Qi didn't speak a lick of english before this movie?) Eight seasons of Star Trek? I think I would have lost the will to live...
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Post by lovemyipad on May 4, 2013 6:27:00 GMT -8
put/call ratio needs to be thought of as "crowd mentality" and the crowd is usually wrong. Of all the things to look at for direction - this isn't one of the better or worthwhile. +1
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Post by redinaustin on May 4, 2013 7:10:06 GMT -8
OT: Live Blog for all you Buffettheads! #brk2013 Check out the Omaha World-Herald's all-day live coverage at omaha.com/berkshire. 1h . Twitter for iPhone
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Post by qualitywte on May 4, 2013 8:09:04 GMT -8
OT: Live Blog for all you Buffettheads! #brk2013 Check out the Omaha World-Herald's all-day live coverage at omaha.com/berkshire. 1h . Twitter for iPhone Was hoping for Jimmy Buffett, guess that would be Parrotheads.
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Post by Ultrarunner on May 4, 2013 8:34:13 GMT -8
I would have come over with chicken soup and We could have used your Apple TV to stream Asian movies starring........what's her name. If that didn't work we could have watched all eight seasons of Star Trek TNG..... Red, I assume you mean Seven, not Eight. Or is this an "in joke"? You really need to watch STNG on the new Blu Ray remasters. Three seasons out so far. Blows any STNG on DVD or Apple TV away.
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Post by appledoc on May 4, 2013 8:41:28 GMT -8
iPad, I'm trialing motivewave because I see that you've been using that software for your charts. Which edition and data provider do you use? YAY! I have the everything-and-the-kitchen-sink version, but Doc likes the Analyst version just fine. For data provider, I just use the free Yahoo/Google option. Yeah, I get away with the Analyst and no add ons just fine. Not having the EW features is annoying, but I make do.
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Post by Deleted on May 4, 2013 9:05:23 GMT -8
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Post by appledoc on May 4, 2013 9:18:28 GMT -8
I would prefer that this not be legal.
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Post by Deleted on May 4, 2013 9:44:26 GMT -8
When all else...well... doesn't look quite as it "should" be, look to other geographies! www.macrumors.com/2013/05/03/apples-u-s-smartphone-usage-share-approaches-40/At least I _think_ that's what some of the anti-iOS brigade would say. Extrapolating from past AFB1 posters is all. Apple's doing "OK enough" in the US, but I've little doubt they're thinking along the same lines I am: Greater China is the next hugely important future battlefield... Yes it is, and I think, sizes be damned, that battle will be settled when Apple and China Mobile become dance partners. Think about it, Apple is doing very, very well in China despite the fact that its products are not offered by CM. Samsung, on the other hand is available everywhere and anywhere. The advantage that Samsung has over Apple isn't price or quality of product, its distribution Throw in Docomo and we'll see which platform is dominant real quick.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on May 4, 2013 9:57:58 GMT -8
I would have come over with chicken soup and We could have used your Apple TV to stream Asian movies starring........what's her name. If that didn't work we could have watched all eight seasons of Star Trek TNG..... Red, I assume you mean Seven, not Eight. Or is this an "in joke"? You really need to watch STNG on the new Blu Ray remasters. Three seasons out so far. Blows any STNG on DVD or Apple TV away. I count the three seasons of The Original Series (TOS) as one prequel series to TNG.... ;D
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Post by Deleted on May 4, 2013 9:58:24 GMT -8
I'm trying to figure out why I'd get/use a pair of these when I already have an iPhone, which seems much more robust and practical. I mean, in the review she kept referring tethering to a handset for more functionality. Why?
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Post by Deleted on May 4, 2013 10:03:58 GMT -8
I'm more nervous after this week's $32.xx rise, than I was after a $32.xx drop during the Great Slide. I did very well this past week and have to admit it feels so unnatural that all the alarms are clanging loudly. What are you going to be looking for at the Open on Monday? I'd like to see much greater volume coupled with AAPL continuing to rise. The P/C Ratio is way over the top with new Puts, enough so that they've moved the ratio on over 3,100,000 contracts from 0.50:1 to 0.72:1. New Puts dwarf new Calls. What is it that all those Put buyers are expecting, and when? I'm not certain if you are being facetious or serious - I lost you .... but, put/call ratio is a contrary indicator. I'm sure you are aware, right? So this is bullish. Is that what you are trying to say here? LOL Now I get to say that I've lost you. How is 5X Put volume vs Call volume Bullish? (Edited to add)Phoebear, after reading all responses I know get it. Thank you for your response.
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Post by Deleted on May 4, 2013 10:07:23 GMT -8
put/call ratio needs to be thought of as "crowd mentality" and the crowd is usually wrong. Of all the things to look at for direction - this isn't one of the better or worthwhile. The 'crowd' buying Puts (0.98:1 overall ratio) did very well last September, and on through the next 6 months.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on May 4, 2013 10:09:21 GMT -8
I would prefer that this not be legal. Doc, I have no problem with this in the context of a publicly announced stock buyback program. If Apple were to get those bond proceeds on monday and then sold some puts at 400, 410 and 430 with expirations in June, July and August ( as an example) maybe the proceeds get used to take those shares at a good price..( then market price), or if Apple stays up they pocket the premium and the balance sheet benefits. If the company is going to buy a ton of shares anyway...why not also pocket some premium. Now, if they are selling puts today at a 500 strike I'm less sanguine about it.... What I DO like is the "no comment at this time" part of it.......keep everyone guessing......
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Mav
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Post by Mav on May 4, 2013 10:12:52 GMT -8
I would prefer that this not be legal. That IS legal? A company participating in its "own" derivatives market? Hey, why not sell naked calls in that case? It'll meet margin maintenance requirements for several billion dollars at least. Risky as hell, but join the EOs and fund the buyback program with premium the weeks that Apple's right.
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Post by Deleted on May 4, 2013 10:14:44 GMT -8
I'm more nervous after this week's $32.xx rise, than I was after a $32.xx drop during the Great Slide. I did very well this past week and have to admit it feels so unnatural that all the alarms are clanging loudly. What are you going to be looking for at the Open on Monday? I'd like to see much greater volume coupled with AAPL continuing to rise. The P/C Ratio is way over the top with new Puts, enough so that they've moved the ratio on over 3,100,000 contracts from 0.50:1 to 0.72:1. New Puts dwarf new Calls. What is it that all those Put buyers are expecting, and when? Gregg, I don't see this as a problem for bulls. The cautionary step for many of buying puts to protect their gains of, say, 10 percent over two weeks is prudent and I welcome the fact that we don't have euphoria.....yet. This ratio works for me as a long.. In edi: phoebes said it better than I did... Ah, now that's a logic I can sink my teeth into. Taking my own nervousness into account, if I held shares I'd be inclined to protect those gains with some inexpensive out of the money Puts, a month or two out. That would also explain why I'm not seeing the volume in very near term Expiries. Thanks everyone.
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Post by appledoc on May 4, 2013 10:15:07 GMT -8
I just view it as very messy and potentially being a can of worms if not tightly regulated. Since the SEC has shown they are incapable of regulating anything, companies participating in the options market of their own shares should be illegal.
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Post by rickag on May 4, 2013 10:15:49 GMT -8
Interesting. Need help. Let's say I have already made the decision to buy 100 shares if AAPL falls to $425. I could sell the July put for $21.1 credit. If AAPL falls below that I buy the 100 shares @ $425 just as I planned. If AAPL is below that I would be underwater the same amount as if I initiated the buy @ $425 anyway but I pocket the $21.1( or $2110). Kind of like placing a stink bid but making the $2110 and just waiting for AAPL to recover. Is this correct? I know the risk but if I already committed to buying @ $425 I'd be in the same boat but with an extra $2110. Color me confused.
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Post by Deleted on May 4, 2013 10:19:39 GMT -8
put/call ratio needs to be thought of as "crowd mentality" and the crowd is usually wrong. Of all the things to look at for direction - this isn't one of the better or worthwhile. That goes against the 'pinning' argument. You (community "you") can't argue both sides as correct.
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Post by Deleted on May 4, 2013 10:30:43 GMT -8
Couldn't read the whole article due to Barron's annoying "You gotta give us money to read this" ad. But, what could be read does a beautiful job of explaining an increase in Put interest I had not see before. These new Puts are being originated by Put SELLERS not Put BUYERS for the reasons explained in the article. Anxiety level returning to normal (only slightly paranoid now). ;D
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Post by Deleted on May 4, 2013 10:36:28 GMT -8
I'm not certain if you are being facetious or serious - I lost you .... but, put/call ratio is a contrary indicator. I'm sure you are aware, right? So this is bullish. Is that what you are trying to say here? Gregg worries too much about put/call ratio, probably thinking that the buyers of puts know something the put sellers don't. Even if the put writers (institutions) don't know more, they sure as hell have more money and will seek to retain it. I'm with you, more puts equals buying pressure. After reading all the responses, I have come to see that my view of increasing P/C Ratio was 2 dimensional vs required 3 dimensional, and agree, the Put writers (those with lots of shares) are betting with Apple (TC: "Don't bet against us").
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Post by Ultrarunner on May 4, 2013 10:38:54 GMT -8
put/call ratio needs to be thought of as "crowd mentality" and the crowd is usually wrong. Of all the things to look at for direction - this isn't one of the better or worthwhile. That goes against the 'pinning' argument. You (community "you") can't argue both sides as correct. Greg, the stock is pinned because as the price approaches their strike, the crowd sell the calls, forcing the commercial players who wrote the calls to dump the stock they purchased to hedge those calls.
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Post by Deleted on May 4, 2013 10:59:39 GMT -8
Interesting. Need help. Let's say I have already made the decision to buy 100 shares if AAPL falls to $425. I could sell the July put for $21.1 credit. If AAPL falls below that I buy the 100 shares @ $425 just as I planned. If AAPL is below that I would be underwater the same amount as if I initiated the buy @ $425 anyway but I pocket the $21.1( or $2110). Kind of like placing a stink bid but making the $2110 and just waiting for AAPL to recover. Is this correct? I know the risk but if I already committed to buying @ $425 I'd be in the same boat but with an extra $2110. Color me confused. That's my understanding. To explain differently: Sell the July $425 Put for $21.10. If the shares are Put to you your net price is $403.90. Another way of looking at it is that you are now taking the market maker's position. Everybody keeps advocating that Apple be buying back now because the price so good. This strategy guarantees that Apple gets the best price, or makes a nice profit on the expiring contracts (OI&E boost). It isn't the buy back, in and of itself, that is driving AAPL, it is the implied floor that THIS strategy creates, that is driving AAPL. The SIZE of the Buyback creates a more solid floor for those desiring to go long. With my new understanding of the strategy of selling Puts in a Buyback environment, I wholeheartedly believe the P/C Ratio is indeed BULLISH.
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Post by phoebear611 on May 4, 2013 11:44:18 GMT -8
I would prefer that this not be legal. This is done by virtually any major corporation. Microsoft has done if for years! It's a great strategy - they sell puts and more often than not - augment their cash hoard and rarely get "put" the stock. If I were advising them, I would suggest utilize the option market. Just my opinion.
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Post by rickag on May 4, 2013 11:56:17 GMT -8
Thank you for the response Gregg.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on May 4, 2013 12:01:18 GMT -8
phoebear - so that's all part of OI&E then?
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Post by Deleted on May 4, 2013 12:13:20 GMT -8
I would prefer that this not be legal. This is done by virtually any major corporation. Microsoft has done if for years! It's a great strategy - they sell puts and more often than not - augment their cash hoard and rarely get "put" the stock. If I were advising them, I would suggest utilize the option market. Just my opinion. It was either here or at MDN that I posted about MSFT investing in its own equities. They did it extensively during late '90s (think of that run up) and augmented profits and cash well beyond operations. In my opinion, any Company that doesn't do this is a fool. To me there is nothing immoral about investing in yourself.
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Post by appledoc on May 4, 2013 12:35:55 GMT -8
I would prefer that this not be legal. This is done by virtually any major corporation. Microsoft has done if for years! It's a great strategy - they sell puts and more often than not - augment their cash hoard and rarely get "put" the stock. If I were advising them, I would suggest utilize the option market. Just my opinion. So can companies sell calls ahead of what they believe will be tough times? This is akin to players/managers betting on their team to win. It's better left out entirely rather than having to regulate the betting to assure people aren't betting against themselves.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on May 4, 2013 12:43:50 GMT -8
Apple isn't the kind of company that'll need to step outside the realm of capital preservation for its cash. Entering the bond market should be quite enough.
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