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Post by appledoc on May 16, 2013 6:37:15 GMT -8
I dont understand TA hardly at all still, but the workings of AAPL lately make me want to look into it a lot more. It sure seems to bounce at levels you guys warn about. Profiting off it is the hard part though. Once the daily MACDh has a bullish divergence AND we're above the daily SMA20 and 50, I'll most likely be buying just a bit.
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Post by jdubuc on May 16, 2013 6:38:10 GMT -8
Sorry if this was posted already, but here's a good analysis of the $240 pps valuation nonsense from David Trainer the other day: esjewett.com/blog/gullible-financeThe short of it is that David's math is based on a 2012 Return on Invested Capital of 70%, and he assumes the number will be 52% for 2013. Apple's actual ROIC in 2012? 270% Slight difference... Anyway, if you apply the actual ROIC values, the valuation by David's own formula becomes $791/share.
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Post by macwire on May 16, 2013 6:42:41 GMT -8
I dont understand TA hardly at all still, but the workings of AAPL lately make me want to look into it a lot more. It sure seems to bounce at levels you guys warn about. Profiting off it is the hard part though. Once the daily MACDh has a bullish divergence AND we're above the daily SMA20 and 50, I'll most likely be buying just a bit. Max pain is implying 435ish I believe?
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Post by sponge on May 16, 2013 6:47:36 GMT -8
If we close above 435 today then I see 440+. That bounce off 418 was very bullish. Not following TA, just my sponge like view. And once again GOOG and aapl are moving in opposite directions. Update: I bought even more shares as we moved to 434. I like the momentum and did not wait to break 435.
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Post by terps530 on May 16, 2013 7:03:33 GMT -8
Profiting off it is the hard part though. Once the daily MACDh has a bullish divergence AND we're above the daily SMA20 and 50, I'll most likely be buying just a bit. Max pain is implying 435ish I believe? as of this morning, max cash pain is at 450. 435 costs option writers an extra $50million
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Post by macwire on May 16, 2013 7:05:32 GMT -8
Attempt number two at 435....
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,255
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Post by JDSoCal on May 16, 2013 7:06:42 GMT -8
Thanks, put buyers.
435 open interest is tied. Ties go to the call lemmings.
That is all.
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Post by appledoc on May 16, 2013 7:18:49 GMT -8
Above the SMA50!
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Post by podboy on May 16, 2013 7:19:21 GMT -8
Run baby!
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,255
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Post by JDSoCal on May 16, 2013 7:32:43 GMT -8
Run baby!
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Post by rickag on May 16, 2013 7:34:00 GMT -8
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Post by sponge on May 16, 2013 7:49:25 GMT -8
One more day like today and my 550calls will explode. Monday may be the day they go green.
In the mean time i have bought two more times more shares. I am comfortable that once we get past 440 this time we will build a base there. So next time we correct either from 485 or 510 in the next few months, we should not go lower then 440.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on May 16, 2013 8:01:00 GMT -8
Don't try to catch this falling knife. I confess. I'm a pathological liar. Yesterday I said that was it, I'm done. But then last night, after looking at everything I could think of, I placed a stink bid for next week's $425/$430 BCS. AAPL had Closed at $428.xx, and my bid required AAPL to drop to $419.xx to get filled. My feeling was that there remained strong interest in AAPL, enough so that it would recapture $435 by next Friday. My order was filled within minutes of the Open, then AAPL promptly recaptured $435.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on May 16, 2013 8:03:22 GMT -8
Well, the big boys reinvested their millions of dollars of dividends at a nice price. Must be just a coincidence... Agreed, no way they communicate among one another. The SEC would definitely do their job and not allow it. They don't have to, the strategy is so basic even we figured it out.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on May 16, 2013 8:11:30 GMT -8
Quick, sponge, go back to being a bear. We lost $3 since you posted that last message.
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Post by appledoc on May 16, 2013 8:16:13 GMT -8
I like that sponge trades more frequently than I do.
I suspect the golden setup is right around the corner.
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Post by sponge on May 16, 2013 8:18:24 GMT -8
Quick, sponge, go back to being a bear. We lost $3 since you posted that last message. Hey I am still a bear. These short term moves between bearish and bullish sentiment will continue given the volatility of the stock. It can move many points at anytime in any direction for little reason. However given the huge bounce this morning I was comfortable with getting back in. My short term bullish view just says 418 was the low for a long time barring major bad news. Buying long shares under 435 and at what ever price we are tomorrow still makes me bullish for the long haul.. It will be above 435 tomorrow. I still don't see more then 525 by end of the year. I don't think there is anyone else here that is that bearish. We can even hit 575 at some point this year, but I think we will drop as we get close to Dec.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on May 16, 2013 8:20:12 GMT -8
Sorry if this was posted already, but here's a good analysis of the $240 pps valuation nonsense from David Trainer the other day: esjewett.com/blog/gullible-financeThe short of it is that David's math is based on a 2012 Return on Invested Capital of 70%, and he assumes the number will be 52% for 2013. Apple's actual ROIC in 2012? 270% Slight difference... Anyway, if you apply the actual ROIC values, the valuation by David's own formula becomes $791/share. There were two excellent rebuttals to Trainer's analysis on Seeking Alpha this morning. Essentially they said his math was correct, but his analysis was faulty, on many levels, and they explained why. I don't think Trainer is stupid. The research and calculations he did required more than a little bit of knowledge. Given the timing of his outrageous analysis though, I'm reminded of another village whore - Rob Enderle. I'll bet there are strong parallels between the two business models.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on May 16, 2013 8:28:57 GMT -8
If we close above 435 today then I see 440+. That bounce off 418 was very bullish. Not following TA, just my sponge like view. And once again GOOG and aapl are moving in opposite directions. Update: I bought even more shares as we moved to 434. I like the momentum and did not wait to break 435.
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Post by sponge on May 16, 2013 8:35:50 GMT -8
If we close above 435 today then I see 440+. That bounce off 418 was very bullish. Not following TA, just my sponge like view. And once again GOOG and aapl are moving in opposite directions. Update: I bought even more shares as we moved to 434. I like the momentum and did not wait to break 435. Hey that picture is a sign that you all should be buying now before we get over 438 by end of the day. ;D
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on May 16, 2013 8:43:12 GMT -8
Uh oh, he's near term bullish...time to sell!
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Post by po1nt on May 16, 2013 8:48:20 GMT -8
Interesting. My divy was reinvested at $428.54. Right in the middle of that rally this morning. Anyone else?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 16, 2013 8:49:30 GMT -8
Am I reading volume correctly? On a strong UP day AAPL has traded 14.4 million shares with over half the day remaining.
That sure seems like a strong bullish confirmation.
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Post by sponge on May 16, 2013 8:55:54 GMT -8
Interesting. My divy was reinvested at $428.54. Right in the middle of that rally this morning. Anyone else? I get cash. It is not there yet.
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Post by appledoc on May 16, 2013 9:11:15 GMT -8
SMA20 and 50 will cross tomorrow.
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Post by sponge on May 16, 2013 9:11:59 GMT -8
SMA20 and 50 will cross tomorrow. What are the numbers?
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Post by tuffett on May 16, 2013 9:12:18 GMT -8
We should implement a daily post limit. Would help cut down on a lot of garbage.
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Post by sponge on May 16, 2013 9:20:29 GMT -8
We should implement a daily post limit. Would help cut down on a lot of garbage. I don't think doc and mav would be happy with that idea. This place is much funner with activity and posts from everyone. The ignore button work very well and the garbage disappears.
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Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
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Post by Mav on May 16, 2013 9:29:58 GMT -8
"At this point, if I had to guess, I'd go with "decent bounce over the SMA-20" just for AAPL to temporarily regain even neutral composure. Maybe a rejection of new countertrend lows and ending solidly in the green (y'know, Redler's fave trade) as a "best case" scenario."
And it happened in like an hour on a day trading time frame. Gimme a break.
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Post by appledoc on May 16, 2013 9:35:35 GMT -8
SMA20 and 50 will cross tomorrow. What are the numbers? 20: 434.52 50: 435.11 They almost assuredly will cross tomorrow.
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