JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on May 31, 2013 14:17:02 GMT -8
Yep, a total coincidence AAPL popped for almost 2 days, then tanked below the top call wall right before close, then bobbed right back up over 450 after close. Market forces at work, nothing to see here. JD, your (fully justified) cynicism always makes me smile. Indeed, nothing to see here. Someday, I'll get over feeling that my AAPL shares are but a pawn in some larger plan, but I can't see that day being any time soon. C'mon O Temple of Innovation, give us something at WWDC that shakes up the EO's even just a little bit. I'd offer more extended thoughts on the week, but I know Lovey is going to pull the football away and start the weekend thread as soon as I try. How ironic that the woman who has taught us to be paranoid about the EO's tricks, is just lying in wait to get me.
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Post by lovemyipad on May 31, 2013 15:28:32 GMT -8
The bar is open!
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Mav
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Post by Mav on May 31, 2013 15:36:20 GMT -8
Drat! iPad wins again! ;D EDIT: O great and terrible mod powers
Trading-wise, I almost FEEL like a doji if that makes any sense. No idea which way we're going next.
Hope my SPY put play pans out. Or...er...works, if you're not a fan of unintentional alliteration.
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Post by lovemyipad on May 31, 2013 15:46:38 GMT -8
Muahahahahaha!!!
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Post by sponge on May 31, 2013 15:50:59 GMT -8
True from here to Dec is bullish 525. But given how drastically I have reversed my view in my mind it is bearish.
I actually have bigger expectations for this WWDC then in the past.
TC seemed giddy over wanting to surprise us. I don't see him as someone who will over promise.
What aapl will do this time is always left for speculation. I am hoping for something grand like a big move to 530 by end of June, but will be happy with 465.
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Post by artman1033 on May 31, 2013 15:58:11 GMT -8
current conditions: A tornado is HEADING for the CITY of OKLAHOMA CITY LIVE VIDEO
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Post by lovemyipad on May 31, 2013 16:14:07 GMT -8
Good for Apple, I suspect, but I'm not sure about the overall market. We've seen this too often in this recent bull run for SPY. The market sells off, then folks step in to buy the dip before the damage becomes any more than cosmetic. Will this time (first trading session in June) be any different? One last chance for Sell in May, Go Away. As my stock market mentor used to say, about 2,400 years ago, "I know one thing: I know nothing." YES, to all of this!!!
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 31, 2013 16:21:50 GMT -8
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on May 31, 2013 17:08:41 GMT -8
So, weird week. Notsomuch the ending, but the circuitous route in which we got there. The Monday holiday made predicting things harder from my Evil Overlords-must-kill-retail-lemmings POV. Wednesday was really like Tuesday, in terms of option open interest. The last 25 minutes were textbook dump-to-kill, IMO. It looked like these evil machines are learning, i.e., wait as long as possible for volume to drop, play chicken and get people to blink and close out on their own (even I blinked), and maybe some big buy-side players had left early for the weekend (or better yet, trigger their algos into joining the dump party), then pounce. Also, leave nothing to chance with a close in the 449.9X's, as that has failed before. Note this time, they drove it down to the 60's and 70's to make it safely across the wire. Some random 20-20 hindsight. At about 1:25 PM, with AAPL at 456.75 the 455 puts (the number even appledoc agreed last night was a key call wall) were trading at about 0.50. By 3:35, AAPL was down to 454, and you still could have had the 455 put for about 1.20. Then what happened? And the 450 puts went from .01 to .20 in the last 30 minutes. So what's my point? I don't know. But next time I see AAPL within $2 of the highest call wall with 30 minutes to play, I'll be looking at some really cheap puts at that strike to paper trade. Note that none of this is a recommendation. I believe in pain, but it has proven fallible. Do I even need to mention the risk involved in half-hourlies? Forget I said anything and disegard this message.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on May 31, 2013 17:28:05 GMT -8
Can't disregard it. Has too much truth in it.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on May 31, 2013 18:27:46 GMT -8
Well. Apparently China's official PMI (manufacturing) for May is 50.8, vs. HSBC's estimate of 49.6, up a tick from the April reading of 50.6 and better than predictions of around 50. www.reuters.com/article/2013/06/01/china-economy-pmi-idUSB9N0D702Q20130601Is this a "bona fide" beat of expectations? Will it still be interpreted as bearish in YOY terms? Does anyone trust China's official PMI numbers? What about the other PMI numbers due out later this weekend? What does this mean for Monday? Why are there so many questions in this paragraph?!? Heck if I know! ;D
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 31, 2013 18:48:49 GMT -8
current conditions: A tornado is HEADING for the CITY of OKLAHOMA CITY LIVE VIDEOI understand fear (well not really), but that passenger is an absolute wuss.
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Post by Deleted on May 31, 2013 18:56:47 GMT -8
Hmmm. The highest volume one minute of the day was the day's last, over 600,000 shares. Wasn't Apple, these trades were all uptick.
Looks like somebody(s) buy trigger is $450.00. That bodes well for next week.
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on May 31, 2013 19:57:24 GMT -8
Speaking of conspiracy theories about shenanigans during the last half hour of trading, here is Art Cashin discussing it. Please excuse the CNBC link, but Cashin does spend his whole day walking the floor and BS-ing with traders.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on May 31, 2013 21:26:49 GMT -8
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Post by appledoc on Jun 1, 2013 5:05:40 GMT -8
Mav, to answer your question from intraday, I did not buy at the close yesterday. The game plan is to wait for 465 to get taken down. Then I'm throwing whatever I can into commons. I already broke my rule and bought a handful of Apr spreads. But the technicals were just too damn good not to. I also need to make sure I have enough cash on hand to get settled into my new home. Spending $200 to have five hornet's nests removed wasn't how I wanted to start. But I can't complain too much since there were numerous positive surprises in my favor at closing ;D
I'm thinking 465 will come next week. The setup is still great. The word resilient has been thrown around a lot here, and that's exactly what AAPL is.
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Post by rickag on Jun 1, 2013 5:40:40 GMT -8
Hmmm. The highest volume one minute of the day was the day's last, over 600,000 shares. Wasn't Apple, these trades were all uptick. Looks like somebody(s) buy trigger is $450.00. That bodes well for next week. I'm confused, I thought someone here posted that there is a re that Apple had to buy on an uptick for their buyback? Edit: Nevermind: I found the rule "An issuer can repurchase its common shares only at a price that is no higher than the current independent bid or the last independent transaction price, whichever is higher. Previously, the price limitation applied to issuers variably depending on their securities types, such as exchange traded, NASDAQ, etc. The amendments to the Rule by the SEC in 2002 made the price condition universal to all securities. Without such a price limitation, an issuer could lead the market into an inflated value for its shares through increased repurchase bids." Slowly pulling foot from my mouth, so to speak. 😊
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Post by qualitywte on Jun 1, 2013 7:18:09 GMT -8
When will people start to realize that AAPL's PE is too low?
MSFT = 18 GOOG = 26 FB = 2050 AMZN = 206 F = 10 GM = 11
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Post by Deleted on Jun 1, 2013 7:18:45 GMT -8
Speaking of conspiracy theories about shenanigans during the last half hour of trading, here is Art Cashin discussing it. Please excuse the CNBC link, but Cashin does spend his whole day walking the floor and BS-ing with traders. So the last minute volume was portfolio rebalancing at market at the Close. Did I get that right? That would certainly explain the sharp rise in volume and PPS.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 1, 2013 7:39:02 GMT -8
When will people start to realize that AAPL's PE is too low? MSFT = 18 GOOG = 26 FB = 2050 AMZN = 206 F = 10 GM = 11 PE is the RESULT of dividing PPS by Trailing EPS. It is not the cause of PPS, rather it reflects investor sentiment to the equity. It is because of the disconnect between what PE actually measures, and how it is used, that I refer to the metric as Investor Sentiment Multiplier ( ISM). The problem with ISM (PE) as a measure of relative value, is that there are to many "folks for different strokes". By that I mean what entices one investor may do nothing for another. For me, investors like those here, are generally bullish because of their attachment to the Company and its product. Others not so attached may take a less emotional view and see weakness in Apple's dominance of the markets it compete's in. The contrarian point of view does not have to be accurate, we're talking about perceptions. Those perceptions get amplified, not by the accuracy of them, but by the actions of respected trading houses. AAPL's valuation may also be impacted by a general belief that in the short term other Companies are going to perform better. Money follows performance. When the perception returns, that Apple is going to outperform its competitors (or other segments) money will flow back into AAPL. F2014 should see that shift in perception.
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Jun 1, 2013 7:45:13 GMT -8
I meant to post this on Thursday in response to aapldamus' mention of 100 million ipod touches having been sold...
I resisted having a mobile phone until a couple of years ago (just not a big phone guy), but I realized the value of having a computer in my pocket as soon as I saw Steve Jobs' presentation of the first iPhone, so I rushed right out and got the first gen iPod Touch. I am happy to report that it still functions well, although running iOS 3 (the last version supported on the device), as our upstairs music system and for checking weather forecasts and sports scores. Sync times seem to have slowed, but at least part of that is probably just by comparison to our newer devices. Quality and value, that's why we love this company.
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bud777
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Post by bud777 on Jun 1, 2013 8:14:06 GMT -8
When will people start to realize that AAPL's PE is too low? MSFT = 18 GOOG = 26 FB = 2050 AMZN = 206 F = 10 GM = 11 PE is the RESULT of dividing PPS by Trailing EPS. It is not the cause of PPS, rather it reflects investor sentiment to the equity. It is because of the disconnect between what PE actually measures, and how it is used, that I refer to the metric as Investor Sentiment Multiplier ( ISM). The problem with ISM (PE) as a measure of relative value, is that there are to many "folks for different strokes". By that I mean what entices one investor may do nothing for another. For me, investors like those here, are generally bullish because of their attachment to the Company and its product. Others not so attached may take a less emotional view and see weakness in Apple's dominance of the markets it compete's in. The contrarian point of view does not have to be accurate, we're talking about perceptions. Those perceptions get amplified, not by the accuracy of them, but by the actions of respected trading houses. AAPL's valuation may also be impacted by a general belief that in the short term other Companies are going to perform better. Money follows performance. When the perception returns, that Apple is going to outperform its competitors (or other segments) money will flow back into AAPL. F2014 should see that shift in perception. +1 One could view ITM as the difference between the current price and the perceived value. This way would allow you to then integrate the ISM to get a factor for momentum, i.e. the rate of change in ITM over time. I believe that most of the algos are looking at this integral as well as the integral of momentum to determine inflection points. It gets tricky then because the limits on the integrals must have something to do with available cash and institutional limits on investment in one stock. These limits might account for our inverse movement to to market as those moves make more cash available. I wish I had paid more attention in calculus 50 years ago, but there was this incredible brunette sitting in front of me. We have been married 42 years, so I guess it's not all bad.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 1, 2013 10:10:36 GMT -8
Has everyone download AllThingsD app to view all the videos? I'm making my way through them now -- must see video is the one with Barry Diller, who talks Apple TV and his disruptive product, aereo internet TV. Mary Meeker appears briefly in "Talking about Wearables," in which she talks very positive about Apple.
Lots of good, free content to inform one's evolving opinion about the future.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 1, 2013 10:13:04 GMT -8
Anything in the Tim Cook interview that's worth watching aside from the highlight clips that AllThingsD already posted?
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Post by Deleted on Jun 1, 2013 10:25:43 GMT -8
Anything in the Tim Cook interview that's worth watching aside from the highlight clips that AllThingsD already posted? Watching and reading about it can easily yield different perceptions. Clearly, Apple has an iDevice coming on the wrist, possibly very soon. Tim was asked some aggressive questions during the general Q&A, which Tim handled with aplomb. Steve would have pushed back, perhaps bitingly, but I question if the same questions would have been asked of Steve, fearing his reaction to such aggression. In one question, Tim was asked why Google is kicking Apple's butt with services and suggested that iOS users were left out. Possibly fearing he would do advertising for the competition, what he didn't say was that many of those same services were on the App Store by Google (search, google now, maps, etc.) But Tim forcefully said that Apple was focused on services going forward. Incidentally, I noted this morning that Mac Pro supplies were constrained, signaling that the long wait by Eric Landstrom and others is almost over.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 1, 2013 10:31:18 GMT -8
I don't think Eric really cared. I don't think he had a previous-generation machine (if you gotta upgrade, you switch platforms or upgrade, not grouse about poor performance). Besides, "his sources", or at least the one relative or someone who allegedly used to work for Apple said Apple is corrupt, doomed, something. Everyone has the right to their own opinion, and if that was Eric's, how can you buy from a company like that, right?
So my guess is it's far too late for Eric. As for others, who knows? My computing preferences were changed when I ended up getting a 2G "lampshade" iMac instead of a Dual G4. Turns out iMacs really do work just fine for me.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 1, 2013 10:49:23 GMT -8
Heck, it's the weekend. Why NOT watch the whole interview. In case, like me, you haven't yet: allthingsd.com/20130529/apples-tim-cook-the-full-d11-interview-video/?refcat=d11Good stuff. I did see 3-4 of the posted clips but not anything about TV. The Verge had Tim saying there's a grand vision for TV. Tim's actual words were "VERY grand vision". Plus that emphasis of "area of INCREDIBLE interest" (I think I've heard that or something like it before, but still). You had to like that, eh Mercel? ;D More notes from the interview: About 35 minutes in: "really keeping the culture of Apple the same...fighting the things that try to change it...ridding the place of those..." ... hmm...
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Jun 1, 2013 11:49:45 GMT -8
I don't think Eric really cared. I don't think he had a previous-generation machine (if you gotta upgrade, you switch platforms or upgrade, not grouse about poor performance). Besides, "his sources", or at least the one relative or someone who allegedly used to work for Apple said Apple is corrupt, doomed, something. Everyone has the right to their own opinion, and if that was Eric's, how can you buy from a company like that, right? So my guess is it's far too late for Eric. As for others, who knows? My computing preferences were changed when I ended up getting a 2G "lampshade" iMac instead of a Dual G4. Turns out iMacs really do work just fine for me. I have to be candid here. I'm in the market for a new laptop. While I feel guilty whenever I buy a non-Apple tech device, the fact that the Retina MBP's are not in any way upgradable by the end user has me looking elsewhere. Soldering in a CPU is bad enough, but soldering in RAM is absolute, complete chickenshit, a practice I intend to e-mail Tim Cook about, the guy who is supposedly all about the customer. I do vow not to consider Samsung. Toshiba and Asus are both copycats too, but they are the only ones with decent customer satisfaction rankings. I'm a 20-year Apple bull, but I'm not going to let fanboy dogma run over my Karma.
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Post by lovemyipad on Jun 1, 2013 12:10:54 GMT -8
PE is the RESULT of dividing PPS by Trailing EPS. It is not the cause of PPS, rather it reflects investor sentiment to the equity. +1
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 1, 2013 12:14:35 GMT -8
JD, you build your own systems, and you're a power user to boot. So it's only natural that you'll have an inherent "problem" with Apple's way of building Macs. Lucky thing a subset of iMac owners can still install their own RAM.
(As an aside, the only reason I finally stopped raging against Apple's GFX cards is that the higher-end is now "good enough" for my needs. I don't need 2560x1440 8x FSAA whatever for my occasional Starcraft 2 game or maybe Bioshock Infinite in the near future. And the raw specs of the higher-end iMac GPU offerings should be more than enough for future versions of OS X for the life of the iMac. The IGPs for MacBook Air, Mac mini though, yeah those still totally suck.)
Hey, we have PC users at AFB. Probably some "I've never bought an Apple anything in my life" people. Fine by me. To each their own, y'know?
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