Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Jun 12, 2013 14:20:09 GMT -8
Poor 1-series!
Shame SNE isn't over-hyped, because it'd be a great short play.
|
|
|
Post by rutgersguy92 on Jun 12, 2013 14:24:47 GMT -8
What a great clip. My wife is a speech pathologist, and works in a school for special children, including quite a few with autism. The apps that have been written for the IPad - in just over the last three years, which is the life of the IPad - have really revolutionized communication with her kids, and with kids like Enrique in the clip. I'm sure SJ never thought about this specific type of application when he introduced the IPad, but for all the kids who use it everyday: "Thanks, Steve" (with apologies to Mav).
|
|
|
Post by phoebear611 on Jun 12, 2013 14:25:37 GMT -8
|
|
|
Post by Lstream on Jun 12, 2013 14:47:48 GMT -8
Just watched this. Fantastic. Thanks.
|
|
|
Post by appledoc on Jun 12, 2013 14:51:07 GMT -8
Very moving video. I've seen the benefits of the iPad first hand in the world of medicine. It's wonderful.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Jun 12, 2013 15:02:29 GMT -8
Hmm. Will iOS in the Car work with even "basic" (as in, regular ol' capacitive/resistive) touchscreen tech? In all honesty, I wouldn't trust any automaker with Apple-level or even Android-level multitouch. And given all the fragmentation (Retina-quality displays haha no), it'll be interesting to see how well iOS in the Car works, particularly the mainstream brands like Chevy, Honda, Hyundai, and Nissan.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Jun 12, 2013 15:13:55 GMT -8
Re-Verge-itation:
And then there was Jony Ive:
and
really, the ENTIRE video, but anyway, and
Translation: I just told a bunch of different groups to do stuff and then we threw everything in a BlendTec. Surrrrre.
|
|
|
Post by lovemyipad on Jun 12, 2013 17:30:36 GMT -8
|
|
|
Post by phoebear611 on Jun 12, 2013 17:36:27 GMT -8
Nikkei down 5.3% - ugly out there
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Jun 12, 2013 18:00:21 GMT -8
The Nikkei has been doing a damn fine TSLA impersonation lately. That's some wild volatility, though it's looking more like breakdown being under 13k and making lower lows on an intermediate basis.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jun 12, 2013 18:28:52 GMT -8
Yes Gregg, I am an idiot and fully admit it. I guess you could call this therapy. You're not an idiot, its as you asked, "how long can this go on?" As I've said many times, its going to take an earnings report, coupled with guidance that portends positive growth to change sentiment. July earnings isn't going to do it for several reasons, only one of which is genuinely Apple specific, and that is the horrible YoY compares to periods that saw extraordinary results. Its like a mouse passing through a snake. That mouse will be behind us with Oct's report and YoY comparison. But before we get there we will have Apple's guidance for FQ4/2013, and that, in conjunction with dividends and Apple's share buyback, will build on the June quarter's stabilization (AAPL isn't in free fall any more). The real jump in AAPL will come as a result of Oct's guidance. Gross revenues are going to be fueled by the new Mac Pro, the new iPhone and iOS 7. This is getting to be a longish post, but its the right time to discuss these points. The new Mac Pro is a game changer. Its easily twice as powerful as current models. That would make it 4X more powerful than 2010's models (at minimum). In the last 3 years desktop sales averaged ~4.6 million units/year with an ASP of ~$1,350. In the 12 month period following the release of the new Mac Pro I see unit and ASP growth of 20% to 25%. The lesser growth rate will generate an additional $2.9 Billion in revenue, and I'll wager will boost GM% as well. iOS 7 is also a game changer. The competition has been designing/manufacturing against a standard (iOS 6 and its ancestors) that no longer exists. It will take them a year (minimum?) to copy it, in the meantime their products are going to look (as someone posted here) "old", and we haven't even got to feature enhancements. Just for the upcoming December quarter I'm modeling 55 million iPhone units. In the March quarter I'm modeling both China Mobile and Docomo as iPhone distributors. The addition of these 2 carriers is not only going to boost iPhone unit sales, it will decrease Samsung's (the only competing manufacturer I care about) unit sales, having a double whammy effect on comparative market shares (a sentiment booster). The S4 is already showing sales weakness so this shouldn't be difficult. Then there's the iPad. The iPad is going to continue to cannibalize laptop sales, but that's going to hurt Windows manufacturers far more than Apple. Full year YoY iPad unit growth rates were: 2010 92.89% 2011 80.78% 2012 72.97% 2013e ~50.00% I'm modeling fiscal 2014 unit growth rate at 35%. That growth alone will exceed the total of all competing tablet sales. I believe 20% to 30% revenue/earnings growth rates (YoY) will return during fiscal 2014, and that's before new product categories are introduced. For a Company the size of Apple that's just insane, but imminently doable. So hang on Max. The show starts in about a month.
|
|
|
Post by Nevyn on Jun 12, 2013 18:59:20 GMT -8
Greg, I think you are overestimating the impact if the Mac Pro. We don't have any performance or pricing information yet. I think this iteration is going to have limited appeal.
The new MBA is going to have a bigger impact. Double the battery life at a cheaper price is going to drive sales.
|
|
|
Post by Nevyn on Jun 12, 2013 19:09:33 GMT -8
COMPANY NEWS ALERT Value investor Nygren bullish on Apple, still avoiding Dell (Thomson Reuters)
By Sam Forgione
CHICAGO, June 12 (Reuters) - William Nygren, a top manager at Oakmark Funds, said on Wednesday he remains bullish on Apple Inc and Bank of America Corp, but is still avoiding Dell Inc in light of the company's plans to take the computer maker private.
Nygren, a noted value investor who runs the $9.6 billion Oakmark Fund, said at the Morningstar Investment Conference in Chicago that Apple is undervalued while Bank of America has one of the top management teams in the banking industry.
Nygren said that there is "an awful lot that could go wrong at Apple" before it would appear overvalued, and that its high growth rate and recent move to return more cash to shareholders through dividends and buybacks was "comforting."
Apple announced in April its plan to return $100 billion to shareholders by the end of 2015 by increasing its dividend and share buybacks. The technology giant's stock had tumbled more than 45 percent from Sept. 21 to April 19, falling by roughly $320 per share, but has since risen more than 10 percent.
Nygren's Oakmark Fund earned a return of 21 percent last year, besting 97 percent of peers, according to Lipper. The fund is up 16.7 percent so far this year, above 86 percent of peers.
Nygren also said that Bank of America stock is undervalued, and that Chief Executive Brian Moynihan is unfairly blamed for mistakes made by prior management. Moynihan was elected head of the bank in late 2009, following the 2008 financial crisis.
"Most of what has gone wrong at Bank of America was put in place by the prior management, and we think unfairly that Brian Moynihan has been tarred by that brush," Nygren said. Nygren's Oakmark Fund had over 3 percent of its assets invested in Bank of America at the end of March, according to Lipper.
Nygren, who said in April that he sold his $250 million stake in Dell after private equity firm Blackstone Group LP ended its pursuit of the company, told Reuters that an alternative proposal to founder Michael Dell and private equity firm Silver Lake Partners' $24.4 billion buyout of the company has not lured him back into the stock.
"We're not really current on the situation. We had been intrigued with Blackstone's involvement, and after Blackstone walked away, we decided to do the same thing," Nygren said.
Dell shareholders will vote on July 18 on the $13.65-per-share buyout offer by Michael Dell and Silver Lake.
Competing against that proposal is activist investor Carl Icahn and Southeastern Asset Management, who together own about 13 percent of Dell stock. They proposed an alternative to the buyout that lets shareholders get $12 of cash for every share they own as well as keep their stock.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Jun 12, 2013 19:09:36 GMT -8
Let the Mac Pro be a little niche. Not like the Power Mac G5 was all that mainstream either.
Even if it's a "failure" or, more likely, profitable but not a big seller - well, Chevy Corvette or a GT-R for example. Halo car, halo Mac. Helps the brand, and all that learning and engineering will benefit all other Macs in time.
Yet another paean to the "walled garden" maybe, but it'll be a big draw to the Apple Store. Can't wait to see one in person.
|
|
|
Post by geraci on Jun 12, 2013 20:28:31 GMT -8
I think many people are underestimating the potential of the new Mac Pro. Apple has not announced pricing or availability yet.
If Apple prices this like they priced the iPad (remember the iPad was priced at about half the price that was being reported in the press), then the new Mac Pro might be priced at the mid-to-upper end of the iMac price range.
The current iMacs kill the Mac Mini in performance. I believe there are a lot of consumers who opt for an iMac when what they really want is a more powerful Mac Mini. One way to look at the new Mac Pro is as a beefed-up Mac Mini that will serve the pro and pro-sumer market.
I can't venture to say how many new Mac Pro units Apple will sell, but my gut says it will sell in the unit range of the better selling iMacs if Apple prices it right.
I believe gross margins on the new Mac Pro can be similar to the gross margins on the iMac line. If so, the new Mac Pro may provide a nice addition to Mac gross margin.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jun 12, 2013 20:43:23 GMT -8
Note to Tim: PUT THIS ON APPLE's FRONT PAGE NOW! Even those with stone cold hearts have to respect Apple's success with changing the lives of people through technology. At some point, even Wall Street won't resist the power and impact of how Apple is making a difference, one individual at a time. And there's nothing inconsistent about that and sales growth. Be patient. When fearful, get greedy.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Jun 12, 2013 20:46:03 GMT -8
Mac mini has the power to surprise if properly equipped. It'll never match the iMac's GFX card but with Fusion Drive/SSD + quad-core I'm sure the mini can put up a decent showing...of course by then, the iMac is less than $200-300 away (albeit with a much slower standard 5400rpm drive).
I'm guessing Mac Pro base configs will start at $2499-$2799. Preferably closer to the $2499, though one might only have a quad-core and paltry RAM/SSD/GFX options at that level.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Jun 12, 2013 20:48:48 GMT -8
Not fearful, just tactical. . AAPL is a second-half story IMHO, just waiting for the right moment to actually buy something I can hold onto longer than 2-3 days. I'm sure Apple's branding videos will make the home page in some way. (EDIT: They are in the rotation.)
|
|
stub
Member
The fix is in. Be patient. Don't panic.
Posts: 300
|
Post by stub on Jun 12, 2013 21:36:11 GMT -8
July earnings isn't going to do it for several reasons, only one of which is genuinely Apple specific, and that is the horrible YoY compares to periods that saw extraordinary results. Its like a mouse passing through a snake. That mouse will be behind us with Oct's report and YoY comparison. But before we get there we will have Apple's guidance for FQ4/2013, and that, in conjunction with dividends and Apple's share buyback, will build on the June quarter's stabilization (AAPL isn't in free fall any more). The real jump in AAPL will come as a result of Oct guidance. Gregg, I don't mean to sound like the perverbial optamist, but I strongly disagree that we'll have to wait until Oct when F1Q2015 Guidence is announced to see a significant ramp up in the stock price. The reason I say this is simple: I know YOY comparisons in July 2013 will look weak, but it's not about where we were, or are, it's about where we're going. If where we are is luke warm, the investors won't care as long as where were going is red hot. If some new product or products are going to ship in September 2013, (which there's a pretty strong idication that they will) then that will factor into F 4th Q Guidence (that will be announced in July 2013). Then the real jump may happen sooner than you think.
|
|
stub
Member
The fix is in. Be patient. Don't panic.
Posts: 300
|
Post by stub on Jun 12, 2013 21:45:48 GMT -8
The hurky jerky-ness of this video really captures the feel/tempo of Microsoft Windows 8. A completely absurd approach to functionality and getting done what you have to do. (it does make it look bad, who did they hire to do their marketing here? Apple?) If you wanted to sabotage Microsoft all you'd have to do is... nothing. They're doing such a good job of it on their own. www.youtube.com/watch?feature=endscreen&NR=1&v=QG-ORLkMiyY
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jun 12, 2013 22:18:53 GMT -8
July earnings isn't going to do it for several reasons, only one of which is genuinely Apple specific, and that is the horrible YoY compares to periods that saw extraordinary results. Its like a mouse passing through a snake. That mouse will be behind us with Oct's report and YoY comparison. But before we get there we will have Apple's guidance for FQ4/2013, and that, in conjunction with dividends and Apple's share buyback, will build on the June quarter's stabilization (AAPL isn't in free fall any more). The real jump in AAPL will come as a result of Oct guidance. Gregg, I don't mean to sound like the perverbial optamist, but I strongly disagree that we'll have to wait until Oct when F1Q2015 Guidence is announced to see a significant ramp up in the stock price. The reason I say this is simple: I know YOY comparisons in July 2013 will look weak, but it's not about where we were, or are, it's about where we're going. If where we are is luke warm, the investors won't care as long as where were going is red hot. If some new product or products are going to ship in September 2013, (which there's a pretty strong idication that they will) then that will factor into F 4th Q Guidence (that will be announced in July 2013). Then the real jump may happen sooner than you think. Stub, I spent a lot of time discussing what I think is going to happen during FQ1/2014, and only a little on FQ4/2013, but you are correct. That's why I finished with "The show starts in a month".
|
|
|
Post by macziggy on Jun 12, 2013 23:22:19 GMT -8
I think many people are underestimating the potential of the new Mac Pro. Apple has not announced pricing or availability yet. If Apple prices this like they priced the iPad (remember the iPad was priced at about half the price that was being reported in the press), then the new Mac Pro might be priced at the mid-to-upper end of the iMac price range. The current iMacs kill the Mac Mini in performance. I believe there are a lot of consumers who opt for an iMac when what they really want is a more powerful Mac Mini. One way to look at the new Mac Pro is as a beefed-up Mac Mini that will serve the pro and pro-sumer market. I can't venture to say how many new Mac Pro units Apple will sell, but my gut says it will sell in the unit range of the better selling iMacs if Apple prices it right. I believe gross margins on the new Mac Pro can be similar to the gross margins on the iMac line. If so, the new Mac Pro may provide a nice addition to Mac gross margin. Having owned many Apple machines from pre-7200s to recent Mac Pros, I think you will find that Apple will price these quite high...I think at least $2500 for the base model. You will have to be a true professional to really work them. I now also own an 27" iMac...I've always said this machine was the biggest bargain I have ever gotten from Apple. The iMac will perform wonderfully under almost any condition unless you have lots of photo files....LOTS....in the 500MB+ range or video in the unbelievable+ range. If you do, then, the Mac Pro is for you and Apple will charge you a lot for it. It is such a beautiful machine. I'll be buying one. Do I need one....probably not, but I'll be buying one anyway....three monitors.....yes yes yes!!! And all my 4x5 scans....no problem...nice!! Let's go there! Finally a new great machine for photogs like me! But, minimal in Apple's BIG $$$$ picture. Really.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Jun 12, 2013 23:29:06 GMT -8
Yup. $2500 for the first Mac Pro, I'd think the first base config 2nd gen Mac Pro would start at _least_ that high. PCIe flash and dual workstation GPUs won't be all that cheap, and that's leaving out Ivy Bridge-E Xeons.
|
|