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Post by lovemyipad on Jun 14, 2013 15:49:22 GMT -8
The bar is open!
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 14, 2013 15:58:27 GMT -8
I feel motion sick. What's a good drink for _that_?
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Post by lovemyipad on Jun 14, 2013 16:00:19 GMT -8
I feel motion sick. What's a good drink for _that_? Ginger ale?
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Post by sponge on Jun 14, 2013 16:02:00 GMT -8
On the golf course with new clubs.
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coma
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Post by coma on Jun 14, 2013 16:05:53 GMT -8
I was looking for a gin & tonic but drank all the tonic, so I switched to rum & coke (w/a twist of lime).
. . . but lately I have been drinking multiple glasses of Chardonnay.
Works great in this environment
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 14, 2013 17:58:08 GMT -8
From an Intraday post by Terps:
Today saw a dramatic drop in new Options (WoW), only 9,000 net new contracts written today vs Week over Week average of 87,000. Ratio overall remains at 0.61:1, as it has been for the past six trading days.
Monday's net new contracts will be most interesting to watch.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 14, 2013 17:59:13 GMT -8
I feel motion sick. What's a good drink for _that_? Flat, room temperature Coca Cola.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 14, 2013 18:16:59 GMT -8
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Post by appledoc on Jun 15, 2013 8:52:11 GMT -8
At this point, 419 looks highly likely. I would expect that to hold, but if not, look for 400 to finally complete the ending diagonal with a truncated 5th wave. Below 400, I don't even want to think about.
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Post by sponge on Jun 15, 2013 8:53:10 GMT -8
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Post by rickag on Jun 15, 2013 8:58:15 GMT -8
At this point, 419 looks highly likely. I would expect that to hold, but if not, look for 400 to finally complete the ending diagonal with a truncated 5th wave. Below 400, I don't even want to think about. It appears $419 or there about is in the cards. Volume stinks, the buyers aren't buying and the sellers are resisting as AAPL continues this meltdown.
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Post by appledoc on Jun 15, 2013 9:45:53 GMT -8
At this point, 419 looks highly likely. I would expect that to hold, but if not, look for 400 to finally complete the ending diagonal with a truncated 5th wave. Below 400, I don't even want to think about. It appears $419 or there about is in the cards. Volume stinks, the buyers aren't buying and the sellers are resisting as AAPL continues this meltdown. I think we're looking at August before we can break out of this holding pattern. It's only six weeks away. What's another six weeks when you've already been waiting 9 months?
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Post by Deleted on Jun 15, 2013 9:54:31 GMT -8
Put walls at 420, 425 and 430. Sadly, it's not going to turn out well for those who bought 81 THOUSAND contracts of June 500 calls, fueling speculation/optimism we would see 500.
It's early, but OI as of this morning suggests $430 - $440 next Friday. That's probably the most reliable indicator we have without catalysts.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 15, 2013 9:55:37 GMT -8
Ovi, Did you extrapolate that opinion from reported iTunes accounts that Apple announces periodically? If you didn't, you're just guessing.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 15, 2013 12:10:48 GMT -8
Since almost every Apple user has an Apple ID if I had to guess, this is an interesting way of assessing's Apple's actual and perceived value. (And since there are households who combine users under a single Apple ID, there's less of a chance that active users will be "overcounted" IMHO.)
At some point down the road (5-10 years?) Apple may well end up with a combined installed base of a billion people (obviously with iOS being the vast majority of users). I'd imagine the market will continue to grossly undervalue these users even as more and more market participants and even market makers become users themselves. It raises some intriguing thought-exercise-level questions. Since platform stickiness is pretty decent, if you think of users as "subscribers", how much on average will they pay to Apple in hardware, software, services and accessories? If Apple ends up with 500 million iPhone subscribers, for example, are they a fairly reliable $550 ASP per 3 years group (say, "$180/yr") all by themselves?
How about "subscription fees" for iPad users? $450 per 3 years ($150/yr)? Or maybe more like 2.5 ($180/yr)?
Mac users are less in number, but much more "valuable". $1300 ASP (lower than recent trends) over a fairly conservative 5.5 year replacement cycle equates to around $235/yr.
Of course, that's before adding in the "truer" forms of "subscription revenue" like app and music purchases, and other recurring revenue like accessories. And user overlap boosts the ARPU calculation.
There's no way to get anything like accurate projections from this exercise, but it might still be worthwhile in a broader sense. It's pretty reasonable to assume that every active Apple user has $250 in Apple spend per year on average, which makes Wall Street's decision to "value them" at under $700 (revenue basis) curious to say the least.
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Post by sponge on Jun 15, 2013 12:14:43 GMT -8
Ovi, Did you extrapolate that opinion from reported iTunes accounts that Apple announces periodically? If you didn't, you're just guessing. They are his numbers not mine. There is no guessing on my part.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 15, 2013 12:27:49 GMT -8
I may start tracking ARPU (iTunes active accounts basis) one of these days. It's a very interesting "metric".
I notice Dediu did a ttm analysis, which may have caused him to inadvertently underestimate ARPU (unless he made some form of adjustment to the iTunes accounts numbers as well) since iTunes accounts have been continuously growing.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 15, 2013 12:29:58 GMT -8
Ovi, Did you extrapolate that opinion from reported iTunes accounts that Apple announces periodically? If you didn't, you're just guessing. They are his numbers not mine. There is no guessing on my part. I'm saying he's extrapolating 500k users each day based on historical data points Apple publishes. Pretty easy to predict, frankly. In other words, it's a fairly safe data point, unless you're calculating it differently.
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Post by sponge on Jun 15, 2013 19:26:56 GMT -8
Just bought a nice leather case from the Apple Store for my 5. The clerk said iPhones and iPads continue to sell very well. Not much excitement over the new Airs.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 15, 2013 19:52:57 GMT -8
The refresh will do fine. Seems Retina MacBook Airs, if they ever show up, will be in conjunction with a redesign, and a lot of testing (which I'd have to think is going on right now) to maximize battery life.
One problem is resolution. The 13" rMBP has a 2560x1600 screen. Adding 4x the pixels to any existing MBA will result in resolutions exceeding the 13" rMBP, and there's no reason for that resolution to be "replaced" for years. Maybe Apple needs resolution independence to "get away with" 1680x1050 / 1920x1080 screens for the next-gen MBAs, since they're Apple's "low-end" systems?
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Jun 15, 2013 22:38:19 GMT -8
I'm drinking the usual, Greyhounds, with IPA's in between...
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 16, 2013 0:20:25 GMT -8
So Elgan in Cult of Mac damns iOS 7 with...er...strong praise. Not sure if that "makes sense" as a manner of speech but it's literally accurate.
Easy to click through to the article via MacDailyNews if you want. I have no inclination to provide the link, because even though it's decent overall, the author employs the tired old copycat canard. Yeah, like Android didn't crib iOS _one bit_ and webOS wasn't directly inspired by the ORIGINAL card metaphors, aka MobileSafari 1.0 and a side of Cover Look (which Apple acquired the tech for, but still).
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Post by artman1033 on Jun 16, 2013 5:13:46 GMT -8
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 16, 2013 9:26:53 GMT -8
Re: the Stratechery article, Ben has a good point.
If iOS 7 already "adapts" to wallpaper photos, it's possible that iOS 7 could even "color coordinate" with the CheapPhone rumored to have a choice of colors (as well as the current/future iPod touch).
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Post by lovemyipad on Jun 16, 2013 11:35:54 GMT -8
Happy Father's Day to all the dads and uncles!!
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Post by rob_london on Jun 16, 2013 11:41:27 GMT -8
The new 13" MacBook Air tested by PC Magazine had a battery life of more than 15 hours! "...double the battery life of the strongest current Windows 8 competition" www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2420468,00.asp
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 16, 2013 11:54:50 GMT -8
Not quite.
Apple is one of the first systems to have Haswell ULT chips. We'll see how the competing systems with Haswell fare, because Haswell is 4th gen, not 3rd.
Apple also gets something of an assist from its lower-res displays.
I'm particularly interested in whether Haswell + Mavericks leads to even better battery life. With App Nap certain real-world gains are almost guaranteed (that is, if you run web plugins in Safari, at least until other third party apps build in App Nap support).
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Post by rob_london on Jun 16, 2013 12:04:17 GMT -8
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 16, 2013 12:23:52 GMT -8
$200 iPhone pffffft ha ha ha ha ha not without some subsidy of some kind
Now, the article's mostly pretty good, if a little inconsistent. No Siri/app crosstalk/"open" APIs...but major design change and the "need" to cross-platform for Android (which means more APIs would only make it worse). Also, there's supposedly a ton of new APIs in iOS 7 anyway.
Also also, I'm quite sure being iOS only is quite fine for a huge number of devs.
Siri for iOS 8, that sounds fair considering that Forstall only left the building 8 months ago. Another interesting question - will Apple incrementally improve iOS versions between releases? Theoretically nothing preventing Apple from throwing in a Siri API during iOS 7's life cycle, unless Apple is "religious" about new iOS/new iPhone (which it may well be).
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Post by Deleted on Jun 16, 2013 12:24:55 GMT -8
Not quite. Apple is one of the first systems to have Haswell ULT chips. We'll see how the competing systems with Haswell fare, because Haswell is 4th gen, not 3rd. Apple also gets something of an assist from its lower-res displays. I'm particularly interested in whether Haswell + Mavericks leads to even better battery life. With App Nap certain real-world gains are almost guaranteed (that is, if you run web plugins in Safari, at least until other third party apps build in App Nap support). +1. But it will be interesting to see the price points on the PC Ultrabooks with Haswell and the higher-cost touch displays needed to run Win8. Those with high res screens will also bump the price. There's a good read comparing the MacBook Air with the Ultrabooks, a PC centric site. What's the Editors' Choice? Ta Da!!!! The MBA. blog.laptopmag.com/top-10-notebooks-nowiOS7: The new features are GREAT. iRadio is a sleeper hit. The home icons are growing on me but am sure they're going to see revisions. It's possible the bright (sign, neon) colors are a nod to what's selling strong in Asia. I would like an option added in settings that has a global reset on default color palettes. Everyone is going to love the changes, particularly Control Center and overall design choices. I can say no more...
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