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Post by appledoc on Jun 19, 2013 18:25:06 GMT -8
Eh, GOOG is fairly priced. They have their hands on seemingly everything these days. Just like Amazon's retail presence, it's worth a ton to WS.
In the eyes of WS, all Apple has is a ton of cash and an uncertain future. I'm still betting on that future being pretty bright.
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Post by mstrmac on Jun 19, 2013 18:31:47 GMT -8
The rewards for patience is forthcoming. The sponge will be redeemed. ;-)
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Post by phoebear611 on Jun 19, 2013 18:31:54 GMT -8
CNet carrying this story tonight: Best Buy recalls MacBook Pro batteries due to 'burn hazards' With reports of 13 battery fires and one injury, the big-box retailer is recalling around 5,100 replacement batteries for the Apple laptops.
Lovely, more good press...
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 19, 2013 18:34:07 GMT -8
Eh, GOOG is fairly priced. They have their hands on seemingly everything these days. Just like Amazon's retail presence, it's worth a ton to WS. In the eyes of WS, all Apple has is a ton of cash and an uncertain future. I'm still betting on that future being pretty bright. Yeah, some real winners: 1. Search is a commodity (sticky but not permanent) 2. Pixel is a bust 3. Glass will be DOA 4. Chromebooks don't have margin or penetration 5. Nexus Q and Google TV were laughed out of the market 6. Android has new owners: Samsung (who is making noises about going to Tizen) GOOG hasn't done ANYTHING in 6 months to justify a move from $650 to $900.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 19, 2013 18:37:41 GMT -8
CNet carrying this story tonight: Best Buy recalls MacBook Pro batteries due to 'burn hazards'With reports of 13 battery fires and one injury, the big-box retailer is recalling around 5,100 replacement batteries for the Apple laptops. Lovely, more good press... Faulty reporting. The batteries affected are MacBooks (black and white plastic), not MacBook Pros
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Post by Nevyn on Jun 19, 2013 18:50:01 GMT -8
I have good news. Every time I am forced to sell due to margin calls, we rebound and go up. Will show discipline and not buy back until we close above 460. And will only buy a small amount. I think we're buying each other's shares... I'm buying when you're selling; you're buying when I'm selling. So, you are the one that is taking Sponge to the cleaners?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 19, 2013 19:13:39 GMT -8
OI moved to new range : $420 - $435. Thanks Uncle Ben, can I have another?
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Post by sponge on Jun 19, 2013 19:16:12 GMT -8
Hey I only lost $1000 from the 25 shares I was forced to sell. Like I said. I will be made whole again when we get to $800. Meaning my portfolio will reach 7 figures again.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 19, 2013 19:32:03 GMT -8
Hey I only lost $1000 from the 25 shares I was forced to sell. Like I said. I will be made whole again when we get to $800. Meaning my portfolio will reach 7 figures again. Optimism comes easy on the 19th hole drinking...you must golf alot.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jun 19, 2013 20:03:48 GMT -8
Hey I only lost $1000 from the 25 shares I was forced to sell. Like I said. I will be made whole again when we get to $800. Meaning my portfolio will reach 7 figures again. If the margin interest doesn't eat you up first.....what do you pay in a month?
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Post by applemuncher on Jun 19, 2013 20:44:26 GMT -8
Eh, GOOG is fairly priced. They have their hands on seemingly everything these days. Just like Amazon's retail presence, it's worth a ton to WS. In the eyes of WS, all Apple has is a ton of cash and an uncertain future. I'm still betting on that future being pretty bright. Yeah, some real winners: 1. Search is a commodity (sticky but not permanent) 2. Pixel is a bust 3. Glass will be DOA 4. Chromebooks don't have margin or penetration 5. Nexus Q and Google TV were laughed out of the market 6. Android has new owners: Samsung (who is making noises about going to Tizen) GOOG hasn't done ANYTHING in 6 months to justify a move from $650 to $900. GOOG is still growing EPS at a healthy clip. AAPL EPS is flat to down.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 19, 2013 20:44:28 GMT -8
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Post by sponge on Jun 19, 2013 20:50:35 GMT -8
Hey I only lost $1000 from the 25 shares I was forced to sell. Like I said. I will be made whole again when we get to $800. Meaning my portfolio will reach 7 figures again. If the margin interest doesn't eat you up first.....what do you pay in a month? About $500. Was $2000 at $700.
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Post by BillH on Jun 19, 2013 21:10:06 GMT -8
Look, I understand the frustration that the last 9 months have thrust upon us, but let's get real. Theoretically, until the iPhone is available on every carrier on the planet Apple is "losing" sales OPPORTUNITIES. But to say that Sony is causing Apple to lose negotiating leverage is a serious stretch of logic Another was to look at the Docomo situation is that each day they don't carry the iPhone Docomo is bleeding subscribers. Sony is only doing well in the ABSENCE of the iPhone. Docomo IS bleeding subscribers, a situation Sony's Xperia line has not reversed. I think it's pretty clear that the competition has improved, impacting the leverage Apple has to close a deal with both Docomo and China Mobile. And Sony's Experia is a solid handset, having success that I said MAY have some effect on that leverage in the case of Japan. There's been plenty written about China Mobile gaining a stronger hand with the flood of Android sales flooding the Chinese market. Like most of the stories here they're probably BS. This may help though..., www.electronista.com/articles/13/06/19/china.now.has.more.active.android.ios.devices.than.us.growing.rapidly/
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
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Post by JDSoCal on Jun 19, 2013 21:11:58 GMT -8
If Max Pain was any more predictive than any other metric, then Friday's Close is going to be between $430 and $435. Now let's see if the third attempt is the charm. First of all, false, because the 430 puts and calls are basically tied, and second, false, a single day's or week's open interest numbers are not a statistically meaningful sample.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 19, 2013 21:12:57 GMT -8
Yeah, some real winners: 1. Search is a commodity (sticky but not permanent) 2. Pixel is a bust 3. Glass will be DOA 4. Chromebooks don't have margin or penetration 5. Nexus Q and Google TV were laughed out of the market 6. Android has new owners: Samsung (who is making noises about going to Tizen) GOOG hasn't done ANYTHING in 6 months to justify a move from $650 to $900. GOOG is still growing EPS at a healthy clip. AAPL EPS is flat to down. GOOG didn't have AAPL's 2012 year to suffer comparisons with 2013. Further, Wall Street claims to be forward looking. So estimated EPS Growth Rates over next 5 years (per annum) Source: Yahoo Finance AAPL 20.9% GOOG: 14.9%
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 19, 2013 21:14:41 GMT -8
I wonder how LTE will impact those numbers. As of Q1, Apple was doing all right in China. Of course not growing quite so fast in calendar Q2/AAPL fiscal Q3, where sellthrough YOY revs growth was a little under 20% for Greater China IIRC. Thanks for the link BillH!
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 19, 2013 21:17:58 GMT -8
I like keeping it simple. For whatever reason Google has the positive sentiment. Apple doesn't.
Multiples aren't really useful for a lot of individual stocks these days. GOOG doesn't "deserve" its multiple based on its blah growth, weird stuff like Google Glass and reticence about Android revenues, but that's just my opinion. The market sees it differently for now.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 19, 2013 21:19:59 GMT -8
This data doesn't really square with Apple reporting March 2013: YOY sales growth of 8% in Greater China (all products, including iPhones). It's late so may have another look tomorrow.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 19, 2013 21:22:53 GMT -8
I like keeping it simple. For whatever reason Google has the positive sentiment. Apple doesn't. Multiples aren't really useful for a lot of individual stocks these days. GOOG doesn't "deserve" its multiple based on its blah growth, weird stuff like Google Glass and reticence about Android revenues, but that's just my opinion. The market sees it differently for now. Agreed. GOOG has Big Mo, for reasons that totally elude me. And if I see one more Microsoft commercial comparing iPad with Surface, I'm going to do a Howard Beal facing Redmond.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 19, 2013 21:27:37 GMT -8
Here's the China sales increase, sequentially and YOY. Hard to see iPhone growth in the article inside these #s.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jun 19, 2013 21:29:34 GMT -8
I like keeping it simple. For whatever reason Google has the positive sentiment. Apple doesn't. Multiples aren't really useful for a lot of individual stocks these days. GOOG doesn't "deserve" its multiple based on its blah growth, weird stuff like Google Glass and reticence about Android revenues, but that's just my opinion. The market sees it differently for now. Agreed. GOOG has Big Mo, for reasons that totally elude me. And if I see one more Microsoft commercial comparing iPad with Surface, I'm going to do a Howard Beal facing Redmond. That would be a turn to your left.....unless you intend to salute from the rear? This gets me....MSFT p/e. 16. INTC. 12.5. TXN. 12.5. DELL. 12.5 Plenty of other example of hardware companies, software companies, chip companies....some growing, most stagnant... All with P/E higher than Apple's 10. Why do TXN or DELL deserve a 12.5 p/e?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 19, 2013 21:36:32 GMT -8
Agreed. GOOG has Big Mo, for reasons that totally elude me. And if I see one more Microsoft commercial comparing iPad with Surface, I'm going to do a Howard Beal facing Redmond. That would be a turn to your left.....unless you intend to salute from the rear? This gets me....MSFT p/e. 16. INTC. 12.5. TXN. 12.5. DELL. 12.5 Plenty of other example of hardware companies, software companies, chip companies....some growing, most stagnant... All with P/E higher than Apple's 10. Why do TXN or DELL deserve a 12.5 p/e? A complete breakdown in valuation and no stock market analyst is talking about it. And I am facing Redmond as I type. Rather than stick my neck out like a Ballmer doing his best running turtle imitation, I turned off the TV.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 19, 2013 21:49:56 GMT -8
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Post by Deleted on Jun 19, 2013 21:54:53 GMT -8
CNet carrying this story tonight: Best Buy recalls MacBook Pro batteries due to 'burn hazards'With reports of 13 battery fires and one injury, the big-box retailer is recalling around 5,100 replacement batteries for the Apple laptops. Lovely, more good press... Not to worry, Phoebes, those were third party batteries. LOL. Although, CNBC will report the "juicier" story tomorrow, I'm sure.
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Post by applemuncher on Jun 19, 2013 23:21:21 GMT -8
GOOG is still growing EPS at a healthy clip. AAPL EPS is flat to down. GOOG didn't have AAPL's 2012 year to suffer comparisons with 2013. Further, Wall Street claims to be forward looking. So estimated EPS Growth Rates over next 5 years (per annum) Source: Yahoo Finance AAPL 20.9% GOOG: 14.9% Not trying to pick a fight, but those same Yahoo numbers forecast a 10.3% EPS decline for this year. Next year their forecast is for a 10.5% increase. So Yahoo data suggests FY14 will be about flat compared to 2012. They are obviously relying on some huge growth for FY15-17 to come up with a 20.9% average over the next five years. Given the pace of innovation from Apple over the past nine months, and increased competition, growth like that could be hard to achieve. Take a look at the AAPL vs. GOOG numbers from Zachs (I believe a much better source than Yahoo). www.nasdaq.com/symbol/aapl/pe-growth-rates
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 19, 2013 23:28:19 GMT -8
Non-factor. AAPL's in intermediate downtrend anyway.
Mercel, sellthrough YOY growth for Greater China was more like 15% or something IIRC. Apple clearly won't let that be the new normal if it can help it, of course.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 20, 2013 0:03:22 GMT -8
OI moved to new range : $420 - $435. Thanks Uncle Ben, can I have another? Don't know if this will be seen by others before the US markets open Thursday morning, but the European markets are down, across the board by ~1.5%. Only 4 of 40 Futures items are positive at 1:00 AM PST. This is the most negative Futures chart I have ever seen. Thank you Mr Bernanke.
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stub
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The fix is in. Be patient. Don't panic.
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Post by stub on Jun 20, 2013 1:38:33 GMT -8
Europe follows us (as does Asian Markets) not the other way around.
One thing nobody's said here today, is that the entire market (including AAPL) is reacting to Ben's wishy washy rap today.
Also, the trend indicates a Lotta $420 Puts bought in the last few days. don't be surpised to see a nice dip into the teens today, but at the same time I'm not saying that it'll necessarily end there there though. Remember last month's triple witching hour day. Maybe this Friday will look erriely similar.
The next 2 days could be quite and irrational roller coaster.
One more thing...
Everybody always says how irrational AAPL P/E is ect. Well, there's your answer.
When the stock price starts to recover it'll take up all by surprise (and do a HARD TURN UP for no apparent reason) like the residental real estate market is doing now.
Like many people have said on this Forum, this stock doesn't behave like any other stock. That goes for the uptick (later on) as well as the current down tick.
So who the hell the knows...
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