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Post by rob_london on Jun 20, 2013 5:35:19 GMT -8
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Post by Deleted on Jun 20, 2013 5:37:59 GMT -8
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Post by rob_london on Jun 20, 2013 5:38:05 GMT -8
Amongst the carnage, AAPL currently holding up reasonably well...
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Post by sponge on Jun 20, 2013 5:52:34 GMT -8
Sorry, no finger print scanner this year. Those drawing look similar to the device I saw last year. I am starting to think Apple will introduce it on the Macs first. I think we may see better battery life in the 5S. That would be a big selling point for Android switchers. In the mean time the stock dropped 2 points below 420. We should work our way up from here. Next week the rocket will take off and reach an orbit above 440.
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Post by macwire on Jun 20, 2013 6:30:04 GMT -8
Broke and bounced. Relative strength.
Lets see how market performs after Europe closes...
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Post by Deleted on Jun 20, 2013 6:44:44 GMT -8
Sorry, no finger print scanner this year. Those drawing look similar to the device I saw last year. I am starting to think Apple will introduce it on the Macs first. Source? A mall cop who is concerned that powdered sugar from donuts could defeat the fingerprint technology? ;D
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Post by sponge on Jun 20, 2013 6:50:05 GMT -8
Sorry, no finger print scanner this year. Those drawing look similar to the device I saw last year. I am starting to think Apple will introduce it on the Macs first. Source? A mall cop who is concerned that powdered sugar from donuts could defeat the fingerprint technology? ;D I have been trying to make contact with him to get the latest info on this. A mutual friend is reluctant to give me his number for some reason. The guy is a cyber security expert and works for a multi jurisdictional law enforcement group. They get federal monies along with money from other law enforcement Agencies. I think his budget is under $20 million.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jun 20, 2013 6:55:41 GMT -8
I loved this post from yesterday (and, of course, I concur): No one has to buy the stock right now. There are stocks hot money feels it has to buy or miss out. Tesla, Netflix....even, gulp, Amazon. We know June quarter earnings are going to be within a pretty set range and the range is not exciting. The share buyback scheme will produce improvement, but not for some quarters yet on a material basis. We know IOS 7is neat but it won't produce revenues until it is paired with new hardware, which means September. An investor can sell Apple at 428 and have a fair expectation of being able to buy the shares back before the next dividend ex-date at 425-440. In the meantime the proceeds from that sale could go to Tesla (just as an example...) that might go from 103 to 125. Apple has told us everything that is going to happen over the next five weeks.....and maybe if earnings pan out as planned, the next ten weeks. Money is fungible and seeks heat....I love Apple but it is a bit "cool" right now. Thanks Lovey. I blush
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jun 20, 2013 6:59:35 GMT -8
Source? A mall cop who is concerned that powdered sugar from donuts could defeat the fingerprint technology? ;D I have been trying to make contact with him to get the latest info on this. A mutual friend is reluctant to give me his number for some reason. The guy is a cyber security expert and works for a multi jurisdictional law enforcement group. They get federal monies along with money from other law enforcement Agencies. I think his budget is under $20 million. 'For some reason?' the guy doesn't want his info plastered in the Internet. :-)
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Post by terps530 on Jun 20, 2013 6:59:37 GMT -8
Instead I get something like, "On Monday I can predict within $10 where we will land on Friday every week". Except when there's some "event" or max pain moves. There's always something to blame for max pain not working. kinda like EW: If A happens, look for B, but if A doesn't happen, look for C. But when B happens, either D or E will happen, however if C happens, either F or G will happen. But if D happens...etc etc Look- this is a fun group and people of course are going to defend what they believe in. Nothing ever works all the time. I do not count this as an event to screw up max pain. if it misses the 420-450 range, then it should be a valid miss. i say this because everyone knew bernanke was talking this week, so that has to be baked into the OIs, both positive and negative. An event that I would classify as an 'outlier' is something like the Japan earthquake, steve jobs death, etc. A surprise that throws everything off. Regardless, no one is going to give in on either side. This debate exists everywhere, for more than just Aapl. I've stood by both methods at times more than another, but I really really think, and someone mentioned it earlier or yesterday, that the takeaway is KNOWING some people use some of these metrics to buy/sell. Whether you agree with a method or not, if enough people are going to name that 419 level resistance, then you know there will be support there with technical buyers. If there is a massive call wall at 450, then you know that the 450 level is going to be really hard to break for the week. Both metrics change every minute, and if you have the right tools, you can track that change. I suck either way, but that is because I have yet been able to eliminate emotion and hope from my trading. I believe if one were to robot trade using max pain and rules to get in/get out based on some range, their net result would be safe. I also believe this is true for people who could robot trade off of technicals. Do big institutions sit there on a forum analyzing a stock, or do they write an algorithm based on a set of rules to make their trades?
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Post by artman1033 on Jun 20, 2013 7:12:00 GMT -8
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Post by Lstream on Jun 20, 2013 7:12:48 GMT -8
Source? A mall cop who is concerned that powdered sugar from donuts could defeat the fingerprint technology? ;D I have been trying to make contact with him to get the latest info on this. A mutual friend is reluctant to give me his number for some reason. The guy is a cyber security expert and works for a multi jurisdictional law enforcement group. They get federal monies along with money from other law enforcement Agencies. I think his budget is under $20 million. That source will be about as good as the mall cop.
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Post by rickag on Jun 20, 2013 7:18:57 GMT -8
Instead I get something like, "On Monday I can predict within $10 where we will land on Friday every week". Except when there's some "event" or max pain moves. There's always something to blame for max pain not working. kinda like EW: If A happens, look for B, but if A doesn't happen, look for C. But when B happens, either D or E will happen, however if C happens, either F or G will happen. But if D happens...etc etc Look- this is a fun group and people of course are going to defend what they believe in. Nothing ever works all the time. I do not count this as an event to screw up max pain. if it misses the 420-450 range, then it should be a valid miss. i say this because everyone knew bernanke was talking this week, so that has to be baked into the OIs, both positive and negative. An event that I would classify as an 'outlier' is something like the Japan earthquake, steve jobs death, etc. A surprise that throws everything off. Regardless, no one is going to give in on either side. This debate exists everywhere, for more than just Aapl. I've stood by both methods at times more than another, but I really really think, and someone mentioned it earlier or yesterday, that the takeaway is KNOWING some people use some of these metrics to buy/sell. Whether you agree with a method or not, if enough people are going to name that 419 level resistance, then you know there will be support there with technical buyers. If there is a massive call wall at 450, then you know that the 450 level is going to be really hard to break for the week. Both metrics change every minute, and if you have the right tools, you can track that change. I suck either way, but that is because I have yet been able to eliminate emotion and hope from my trading. I believe if one were to robot trade using max pain and rules to get in/get out based on some range, their net result would be safe. I also believe this is true for people who could robot trade off of technicals. Do big institutions sit there on a forum analyzing a stock, or do they write an algorithm based on a set of rules to make their trades? +1 A data point whether Fundamentals, Charting, EW or Pain range is just that a data point. Now, as far as algorithms, if I were retired I would have to seriously consider AiTrader 240I was following this trading for a while as best I could and it appears to perform quite well. I just don't have the time at work to keep up. To make serious money would need at least 50-100 shares of AAPL. What is nice is this could be used for either stock or options.
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Post by sponge on Jun 20, 2013 7:59:17 GMT -8
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Post by Deleted on Jun 20, 2013 8:41:38 GMT -8
Ya, without any new products, we'll be able to buy Apple shares for $300...a savings of $120!
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Post by Deleted on Jun 20, 2013 8:45:45 GMT -8
Eddy Cue is now on the Board of Ferrari. Apple has a wide open opportunity to reinvent the head unit, the center stack if you will, of the auto. Will they do it? Hard to say. A voice activated system will require integration with search/maps and the legacy auto controls and screens. It's a natural for Apple given it's a software and hardware solution. I think it's time Apple start investing in controlling its own search technology for a host of reasons, including one for the auto industry.
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Post by sponge on Jun 20, 2013 8:48:23 GMT -8
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Post by lovemyipad on Jun 20, 2013 9:20:34 GMT -8
Remember, my squiggly lines from yesterday? Here's an update, for anyone who cares... AAPL INTRADAY 15-MIN CHART: For more, see technicals threads...
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 20, 2013 9:21:31 GMT -8
I think it's time Apple start investing in controlling its own search technology for a host of reasons, including one for the auto industry. It is, but it's just not that good with it yet. Since Apple isn't and shouldn't aspire to be Google, though, I'm OK with them adding and refining search where they need to - iTunes Store navigation, Maps search, learning from Siri inquiries. There's plenty of data for Apple to sift through. And there's always going with Bing. ;D
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 20, 2013 9:24:48 GMT -8
iPad, which chart update? Also, harder to tell if you're talking the EW charts which were hourly charts, not 15-min.
Btw: We're here to learn, discuss and debate with civility, not pain range is bogus this and technicals are useless past history weather reports that.
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Post by sponge on Jun 20, 2013 9:41:34 GMT -8
Remember, my squiggly lines from yesterday? Here's an update, for anyone who cares... AAPL INTRADAY 15-MIN CHART: For more, see technicals threads... Looks like we need to close above 422 today to move up and better not close below 418.
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Post by prazan on Jun 20, 2013 9:55:12 GMT -8
Regarding the ongoing discussion on TA vs FA vs MP, I suspect we're all blind men trying to describe an elephant by touch. If you can apply both TA and FA, have developed a metric to track retail investor sentiment, know a source who has bugged the offices of the FED and the DOJ, drink regularly with institutional investment managers and hedge fund mavens, have a direct pipeline to Apple's product and marketing strategy, and can rely on a good psychic to warn you about black swan events, then you might be able to reliably predict future price action, if your judgement is sound. Then again, if your judgement isn't sound, you might still confuse the elephant for a tree.
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Post by tuffett on Jun 20, 2013 9:58:49 GMT -8
Hey I only lost $1000 from the 25 shares I was forced to sell. Like I said. I will be made whole again when we get to $800. Meaning my portfolio will reach 7 figures again. All I need to do to be a millionaire at $800 is to buy $67,000 of Jan 2015 $700 calls (you know, since AAPL will be at ATH in Dec 2014 it's a no brainer). Let's not pretend you're in a good position. You pay margin interest monthly and get margin called constantly. What's to say you don't get margin called another few dozen times and pay interest for a few years more (as rates continue to rise)? Where's your million then?
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Post by sponge on Jun 20, 2013 10:12:55 GMT -8
Hey I only lost $1000 from the 25 shares I was forced to sell. Like I said. I will be made whole again when we get to $800. Meaning my portfolio will reach 7 figures again. All I need to do to be a millionaire at $800 is to buy $67,000 of Jan 2015 $700 calls (you know, since AAPL will be at ATH in Dec 2014 it's a no brainer). Let's not pretend you're in a good position. You pay margin interest monthly and get margin called constantly. What's to say you don't get margin called another few dozen times and pay interest for a few years more (as rates continue to rise)? Where's your million then? I have faith in Apple and its stock now just like in 2005. One must be patient.
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Post by tuffett on Jun 20, 2013 10:25:44 GMT -8
All I need to do to be a millionaire at $800 is to buy $67,000 of Jan 2015 $700 calls (you know, since AAPL will be at ATH in Dec 2014 it's a no brainer). Let's not pretend you're in a good position. You pay margin interest monthly and get margin called constantly. What's to say you don't get margin called another few dozen times and pay interest for a few years more (as rates continue to rise)? Where's your million then? I have faith in Apple and its stock now just like in 2005. One must be patient. Patience is costing you margin interest. You impatience jumping back in whenever the stock moves $5 up is costing you money and shares. Bottom line is you cannot announce how much your portfolio will be worth without qualifying it with a timeframe and price action, since both of those affect your results drastically. If you aren't aware of this then you have some serious learning to do. Or, keep relying on "faith".
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Post by po1nt on Jun 20, 2013 10:36:20 GMT -8
filled that big 'ol gap on SPY
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Post by tuffett on Jun 20, 2013 10:39:04 GMT -8
Cool...now Samsung has a head start on their next "innovation"
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Post by sponge on Jun 20, 2013 10:59:57 GMT -8
Two weeks ago we are talking about 465, now we may be looking at 400. This is a perfect example why holding short-term options can be very risky in this stock.
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Post by wheeles on Jun 20, 2013 11:04:45 GMT -8
Two weeks ago we are talking about 465, now we may be looking at 400. This is a perfect example why holding short-term options can be very risky in this stock. Unless those options were puts.
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Post by sponge on Jun 20, 2013 11:06:49 GMT -8
Two weeks ago we are talking about 465, now we may be looking at 400. This is a perfect example why holding short-term options can be very risky in this stock. Unless those options were puts. True Buy and Hold long term shares.
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