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Post by applemuncher on Jun 23, 2013 9:38:06 GMT -8
And again, when the 5" iPhone does come out, it will break all sales records, for any mobile phone, ever. Too bad it will be in 2014. It won't be ever. Ask Samsung how its GSIII did against iPhone 4 and 4S. They both outsold the SIII during the December quarter. And why is Samsung cutting back on SIV production and lowering the price just weeks after its launch? I think the popularity of the 5" handset is a myth. Time will tell. I think there are a HUGE number of people waiting to upgrade to an iPhone with a 5" display. I stand by my statement that a 5" iPhone will break all mobile phone sales records, regardless of the time of year it is introduced.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 23, 2013 9:39:42 GMT -8
I believe the S4 Mini is brand new and is not part of the advertising and probably sot part of the spiff program It is brand new, yes. The same people arguing against the iPad mini are now arguing against a larger iPhone. Except in this case, we have convincing proof of demand for a market --and a profitable one. My main point here is that 100M larger-display handsets (by ONE company, no less) have been sold to customers.
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Post by Lstream on Jun 23, 2013 9:54:32 GMT -8
Thanks for the impressions. It'll be a combination of 802.11ac wireless (which I hope all Macs and iPhones/iPads will have from this point onward) plus improved host device and mirroring device SoC that should really show off AirPlay's potential within 12-18 months, I suspect. Of course, that only covers 1080p streaming. 4K becoming a mainstream video resolution with hardware acceleration and not-horrendous power consumption (and we're just talking laptops)? That's quite a few years into the future, I'm guessing. Turns out that in the first test, the iPad picked the 2.4G network without me knowing. I then forced it onto the 5G network and the experience was a lot better. Not 100% perfect, but really good. 802.11ac plus AirPlay will be pristine I expect. This puts me in the camp of that story that says that your device is your console. I think the associated implications are huge, since your console moves with you. Dedicated mobile consoles are beyond dead, and the high end console suppliers better be worried too. Samsung has nothing to respond with to deal with the combination of AirPlay plus Apple TV, which already has a great start with the units that have been sold so far.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 23, 2013 9:55:19 GMT -8
My theory on the iPhone BIG The posters/media that want one are all male They are tired of losing the "Mine is bigger than yours game!" ROTFLOL Great observation
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Post by Deleted on Jun 23, 2013 10:01:19 GMT -8
My theory on the iPhone BIG The posters/media that want one are all male They are tired of losing the "Mine is bigger than yours game!" And the corollary is the iPad mini: The posters/media that want one are all female They are tired of losing the "but it won't fit in my purse game!"
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 23, 2013 10:08:48 GMT -8
Incorrect! S4 mini is warmed-over stuff compared to the S4. The screen is a joke even relative to the S3 or iPhone 5: m.gsmarena.com/samsung_i9190_galaxy_s4_mini-5375.phpIf you're switching from iOS because of the screen size you didn't care THAT much for iOS itself and the ecosystem wasn't that sticky. No it's no turncoat accusation, it's straight-up fact. And that's fine, you as consumer have the absolute right to buy any smartphone you want. Maybe Apple has to do something about that, and Tim is hinting that they are. It remains curious how dominant iPhone is in the US without a larger screen. Of course you can disagree with Apple about not making a BigPhone yesterday, but their reasons are understandable. If you refuse to accept them, that's fine, but you know what you have to do if you've lost confidence in the company.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jun 23, 2013 10:10:47 GMT -8
My theory on the iPhone BIG The posters/media that want one are all male They are tired of losing the "Mine is bigger than yours game!" And the corollary is the iPad mini: The posters/media that want one are all female They are tired of losing the "but it won't fit in my purse game!" Ballmer carried a new MacBook Air cause it makes him look thinner
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 23, 2013 10:17:43 GMT -8
The thin client of the future is the video mirroring host device, not the device itself. 802.11ac will make AirPlay over 1080p effortless. 4K is a far-future matter but good to hear your thoughts that bandwidth isn't the limiting factor. I do wonder about the computational power and expense needed to build in 4K video hardware support. And how necessary will it be even? Depends on the demand for 4K I guess.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jun 23, 2013 10:22:38 GMT -8
The thin client of the future is the video mirroring host device, not the device itself. 802.11ac will make AirPlay over 1080p effortless. 4K is a far-future matter but good to hear your thoughts that bandwidth isn't the limiting factor. I do wonder about the computational power and expense needed to build in 4K video hardware support. And how necessary will it be even? Depends on the demand for 4K I guess. A gaming revolution may be at hand...
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Post by Lstream on Jun 23, 2013 10:25:20 GMT -8
The thin client of the future is the video mirroring host device, not the device itself. 802.11ac will make AirPlay over 1080p effortless. 4K is a far-future matter but good to hear your thoughts that bandwidth isn't the limiting factor. I do wonder about the computational power and expense needed to build in 4K video hardware support. And how necessary will it be even? Depends on the demand for 4K I guess. Ya, I think this strategy proceeds with or without 4K. It is also not clear to me yet whether it is necessary.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 23, 2013 10:30:05 GMT -8
Mercel, some clarification is needed here.
It's Apple vs. Everyone Else. Everyone else has always outsold Apple. Samsung sold about 200M handsets in 2008.
The BigPhone wave started as early as Droid.
Samsung has mix-shifted aggressively to Android and BigPhones. They've done well with this strategy (along with their dubious IP strategy) to this point.
When customers only have BigPhone options or "the other guy" over at Apple, you'll get a bunch of BigPhone sales. None of this is to say Apple doesn't need to change up its iPhone strategy. Everyone knows Apple does.
But there's nuance to the market being the way it is today. Everyone Else decided to differentiate on bigger screens. It did work, but it's not like it carries a huge risk of failure when you increase screen size more gradually (unlike poorly-specced, badly-timed joke of the Dell Streak) and have many different BigPhone varieties (plus fallback options).
Samsung is the "winner" for now, but it's curiously alone in profitability. A bit nervous about the rather new S4 too so I hear.
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Post by sponge on Jun 23, 2013 10:47:54 GMT -8
Mercel, some clarification is needed here. It's Apple vs. Everyone Else. Everyone else has always outsold Apple. Samsung sold about 200M handsets in 2008. The BigPhone wave started as early as Droid. Samsung has mix-shifted aggressively to Android and BigPhones. They've done well with this strategy (along with their dubious IP strategy) to this point. When customers only have BigPhone options or "the other guy" over at Apple, you'll get a bunch of BigPhone sales. None of this is to say Apple doesn't need to change up its iPhone strategy. Everyone knows Apple does. But there's nuance to the market being the way it is today. Everyone Else decided to differentiate on bigger screens. It did work, but it's not like it carries a huge risk of failure when you increase screen size more gradually (unlike poorly-specced, badly-timed joke of the Dell Streak) and have many different BigPhone varieties (plus fallback options). Samsung is the "winner" for now, but it's curiously alone in profitability. A bit nervous about the rather new S4 too so I hear. Well said Mav Remember that a smart phone is held for 2 years maybe 3. So anyone who seems to have an advantage now, can drastically change 3 years later. And that change can be even more profound 4-5 years later. RIMM still held the lead in smart phones 3 years after the iPhone was introduced. HTC was kicking butt in 2010. Few were talking about Samsung hurting Apple in early 2011. If big is what drives Samsung sales then they are in big trouble 4 years from now when everyone has similar size phones. We must be patient and wait this out. Like I have said before, Samsung has peaked this year but will hang on for at least three more. The dramatic moves will show themselves in 2016. What Apple is working on Today will not be easily copied when it comes out. The iPhone 7 with iOS 10 will be the game changer to put a nail in Samsung coffin.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 23, 2013 10:53:12 GMT -8
Uh, you did see the part where I said Apple has to change up its iPhone strategy, right? iPhone growth slowdown has come about much faster than many of us were expecting. If there's an upside, no one thinks an iPhone mini is the way forward for Apple these days. Samsung isn't going anywhere. So let's hope we get some strong competitors in this space.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 23, 2013 11:07:23 GMT -8
Media pundits should be required to read this, then pass a test based on it, before being allowed to generate their drivel. Not surprising that Dilger wrote it.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 23, 2013 11:40:21 GMT -8
Incorrect about what? The iPad wouldn't fit in a woman's purse? ;D The S4 Mini is another iteration of the Galaxy series. It's another popcorn kernal in a vat full of them being popped by Samsung. It's not a class leading handset if that was the interpretation. Again, there is a proven market for a larger handset and that's a fact. Apple's challenge is both technological and marketing. If it wants to avoid fragmentation created by screen sizes, then the resolution has to drop on a 5" iPhone. This may be "good enough" resolution for most, but Sammy would seize on the greater disparity between its resolution and Apple's. My speculation is that Apple knows better than everyone here that the demand for a larger handset justifies one. I think they're waiting for the next advance in displays and chip design that enables them to INCREASE the resolution without an unacceptable cost of battery and power required to run it: That may be 2014. My frustration is with those dismissing the market for larger displays despite all the evidence to the contrary.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 23, 2013 11:47:52 GMT -8
Mercel, some clarification is needed here. It's Apple vs. Everyone Else. Everyone else has always outsold Apple. Samsung sold about 200M handsets in 2008. Which is why my focus is trained on Samsung, the singular company making all of Android profits. The "Amazon strategy" of predatory pricing to capture market share is not (and won't) work with smartphones given the established financial and market positions of the current participants. Smartphones may one day become commodities wherein that strategy might work but that day has not arrived.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 23, 2013 12:15:42 GMT -8
"My speculation is that Apple knows better than everyone here that the demand for a larger handset justifies one. I think they're waiting for the next advance in displays and chip design that enables them to INCREASE the resolution without an unacceptable cost of battery and power required to run it: That may be 2014. My frustration is with those dismissing the market for larger displays despite all the evidence to the contrary."
No disagreement whatsoever, Mercel.
The "math problem" seems easy enough - current Retina resolution should be fine for years at least, and the current height:width ratio is 1.775:1. So guesstimating resolutions for a given screen size isn't too tough.
The developer problem...nowhere near as simple. Of course Google's noticing fragmentation issues too. iOS trounces Android in app revs and fragmentation plays some role.
This kinda illustrates the "paradox" Apple faces. It has a sustainable iOS empire, even iPhone empire. How best to go about growing it? I'll leave that thorny stuff to Apple.
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Post by redinaustin on Jun 23, 2013 13:13:16 GMT -8
My theory on the iPhone BIG The posters/media that want one are all male They are tired of losing the "Mine is bigger than yours game!" And the corollary is the iPad mini: The posters/media that want one are all female They are tired of losing the "but it won't fit in my purse game!" Well played!
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Post by tuffett on Jun 23, 2013 13:51:25 GMT -8
And again, when the 5" iPhone does come out, it will break all sales records, for any mobile phone, ever. Too bad it will be in 2014. It won't be ever. Ask Samsung how its GSIII did against iPhone 4 and 4S. They both outsold the SIII during the December quarter. And why is Samsung cutting back on SIV production and lowering the price just weeks after its launch? I think the popularity of the 5" handset is a myth. Do you ever get tired of making such blanket statements that turn out to be completely wrong? There is no doubt a "cheaper" iPhone is coming and there is no doubt a larger screen iPhone is coming. Just like there was no doubt an iPad Mini was coming. By the way, Samesung is enjoying record revenues, margins and profits thanks in no small part to this big screen "fad". I think if you ask them they'd be very pleased with their decision. Anecdotally, the number one reason I see people switching away from iOS is screen size. Not because they prefer Android, not because of superior hardware specs, not because of design - screen size.
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Post by redinaustin on Jun 23, 2013 14:50:45 GMT -8
FWIW: I'm a huge college football fan and as such follow a bunch of college, NFL, and retired NFL players on Twitter. I also use a Twitter client (Osfoora) that still displays the platform a tweet was made on. All the NFL guys and about 95% of the college players are tweeting from iPhones. They all have big hands.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 23, 2013 15:31:25 GMT -8
NFL/CFB QB/WR/RB iPhone market share? ;D
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Post by sponge on Jun 23, 2013 15:38:32 GMT -8
Ok just spent 45 minutes talking to my biometric expert. He saw the Apple patent and liked it. He said it could be used in a phone but most likely in a bigger device like and iPad or MacBook. The latest device in the field is build by this company. The FBI uses it and is called Blue Check www.cogentsystems.com/The latest technilogy is called Sherlock and it uses a capacity/optic sensor but as of right now it is half an inch thick and a few inches high. Much bigger then an iPhone. He thinks that the optical option should open it up to smaller mobile devices that are less then half an inch think. In three months there is a biometric conference in Tampa Florida that is attended by law enforcement and military folks. He hopes to see actual devices there with this technology on display. In regards to Apple he sees several issues that are not related to size of iPhone per say. He thinks each transaction must authenticate the finger print. That must be done by accessing a data base to ensure it is you. The fastest system over Internet takes 15 seconds to authenticate you. Only FBI has that system right now. Apple would have to collect good fingerprints of all its users and put it in a database. The problem is that every person has different issues. Some people don't have good fingerprints. Then each authentication needs to go over the Internet to the server and back. So without fast Internet you are limited in using it for mobile payments. HP does have a laptop that authenticates you via fingerprint. He sees Apple going that route but it only gives you access to laptop. So that info is stored on board only. He sees iris identification as the future via the iPhone camera. That would solve the fingerprint issues.
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Post by Lstream on Jun 23, 2013 16:26:21 GMT -8
Ok just spent 45 minutes talking to my biometric expert. He saw the Apple patent and liked it. He said it could be used in a phone but most likely in a bigger device like and iPad or MacBook. The latest device in the field is build by this company. The FBI uses it and is called Blue Check www.cogentsystems.com/The latest technilogy is called Sherlock and it uses a capacity/optic sensor but as of right now it is half an inch thick and a few inches high. Much bigger then an iPhone. He thinks that the optical option should open it up to smaller mobile devices that are less then half an inch think. In three months there is a biometric conference in Tampa Florida that is attended by law enforcement and military folks. He hopes to see actual devices there with this technology on display. In regards to Apple he sees several issues that are not related to size of iPhone per say. He thinks each transaction must authenticate the finger print. That must be done by accessing a data base to ensure it is you. The fastest system over Internet takes 15 seconds to authenticate you. Only FBI has that system right now. Apple would have to collect good fingerprints of all its users and put it in a database. The problem is that every person has different issues. Some people don't have good fingerprints. Then each authentication needs to go over the Internet to the server and back. So without fast Internet you are limited in using it for mobile payments. HP does have a laptop that authenticates you via fingerprint. He sees Apple going that route but it only gives you access to laptop. So that info is stored on board only. He sees iris identification as the future via the iPhone camera. That would solve the fingerprint issues. Fingerprint sensors max out at around 500 dpi. Let's assume the fingerprint is 1" by 0.5". So total dots in a fingerprint scan = 500 lines vertical by 250 lines horizontal = 125,000 dots. At 8 bits per dot, this equals 125,000 bytes or 1Mbit approximately before compression. At high quality, JPEG compression will get you 10:1 compression at least, meaning that we are dealing with 100,000 bits. Even a poor cellular connection will transmit this date in a fraction of a second. Meaning that the entire transaction is sub-second, NOT 15 seconds. Database authentication is near instantaneous. I use fingerprint authentication now when I cross the border, and that scanner looks at FOUR fingerprints. Authentication is fast and painless. And it is NOT done locally. Apple getting your fingerprint into a database would be a non issue. The device would just take a few scans and store the result, as part of the process when you first get your phone. There is no "fingerprint issue" that needs to be solved by iris scanning. Also in case you missed it, the win here is in Mobile Payments. So what is the issue with "So without fast Internet you are limited in using it for mobile payments."? This too is flawed. The same class of transaction is going to be required. This is a red herring comment. All you are doing is switching the use case. Both security and mobile payments need authentication against a remote database. Nothing you have said supports your thesis that fingerprint sensing is not technically feasible on current cellular phones. Your friend is either clueless or you have misunderstood what he told you.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 23, 2013 16:38:00 GMT -8
Why can't the fingerprint be authenticated by the device itself? Once matched, is the protocol for mobile payments all that different than buying a Cafe Mocha at Starbucks that happens in a blink?
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jun 23, 2013 16:39:32 GMT -8
Sponge, what is the accredidation of your biometric expert? I ask because I have only a tangential contact with security for financial data system development but and I am told there are no issues with fingerprint scanners per se. It's the protocols for standardizing what the sensors give to the database.
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Post by Lstream on Jun 23, 2013 16:40:50 GMT -8
Why can't the fingerprint be authenticated by the device itself? Once matched, is the protocol for mobile payments all that different than buying a Cafe Mocha at Starbucks that happens in a blink? Technically, it could. I just don't know the security implications and whether it is acceptable. If it is, then all the better. But if not, the concept is still good to go. EDIT - I bet you are right, now that I think about it. Mass security screening dealing with thousands of people is different, since remote authentication is the only way the use case can work.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 23, 2013 16:41:32 GMT -8
Iris?
Oh please. Anyone can tell you fingerprint would be more feasible. Fingerprint systems have been on laptops for years!
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Post by tuffett on Jun 23, 2013 17:01:41 GMT -8
I'm just picturing people bringing the iPhone camera up to their iris to authenticate the purchase of a latte. Hilarious.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 23, 2013 17:10:52 GMT -8
Just wanted to add an often overlooked reason for the BigPhone phenomenon.
The initial reason why android manufacturers started shipping large phones was because of LTE. First generation LTE chipsets were very power hungry, and so to get even barely acceptable battery life out of a phone, manufacturers had to use a very large battery.
Using a very large battery of course gave you a very large form factor. So if you are stuck with a large form factor the obvious thing to do is include a large screen.
In the end it was a good marketing trick, turning a possible negative (requirement of a large battery and form factor to achieve acceptable battery life) into a positive ("look at this great new giant screen!"). And as it turned out giant screens appealed to the same people (early adopters, geeks) that were keen on first generation LTE devices.
So even today the large screens continue to hide the battery life inefficiencies of android devices. Whereas Apple created a marvellous feat of engineering in getting the LTE equipped iPhone 5 into such a small thin and light package, that feat is ignored by almost everyone because the much larger android devices have the same battery life (despite their vastly bigger form factors).
Having said all that, it implies if apple also creates a bigger screen device, it means it will have a larger form factor to include a significantly larger battery also. What this means is we will finally see a apples-to-apples comparison of similar sized devices, and all else being equal the large screen iPhone should have a large battery life advantage over equivalent sized android devices.
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Post by sponge on Jun 23, 2013 17:15:56 GMT -8
Sponge, what is the accredidation of your biometric expert? I ask because I have only a tangential contact with security for financial data system development but and I am told there are no issues with fingerprint scanners per se. It's the protocols for standardizing what the sensors give to the database. Trust me he knows his stuff. The things he described and the meetings he has had with vendors, are in relation to technology is only two weeks old and now being developed as we speak. You are Correct regarding protocols, he provided more details that I can't explain the way he did that limit law enforcement use. Business transactions for payments must also be conducted in a secure manner so the standards and protocols are similar to law enforcement. I am satisfied with his knowledge to safely conclude we will not see finger print authentication on iPhones anytime soon. If we are lucky next year, but I move it to 2015 at this point. After talking to him, I now understand what TC said regarding the infant stages of mobile payments. He believes that within 5 years most devices will no longer need passwords for access.
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