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Post by nate010203 on Sept 26, 2012 12:45:16 GMT -8
Im getting a bit nervous about these past few days. Down nearly 40 points within 3 days everyday apple is underperforming the nasdaq. Im holding on strong but I really hate down days .
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Post by Plato on Sept 26, 2012 12:48:30 GMT -8
Im getting a bit nervous about these past few days. Down nearly 40 points within 3 days everyday apple is underperforming the nasdaq. Im holding on strong but I really hate down days . IMO we will test the 650ish area close to the lower daily BB, for me almost inevitable. But then, I am wrong also a lot of times.
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Post by nate010203 on Sept 26, 2012 12:55:52 GMT -8
Im getting a bit nervous about these past few days. Down nearly 40 points within 3 days everyday apple is underperforming the nasdaq. Im holding on strong but I really hate down days . IMO we will test the 650ish area close to the lower daily BB, for me almost inevitable. But then, I am wrong also a lot of times. No offense but I hope your wrong. The sooner we get back over 700 the better. Im realistic and it could take a few weeks or longer. Either way Its difficult to get upset over drops when I have made so much money already this year in apple stock. There is literally 0% chance I can lose my original investment. Apple would have to go to about 500 a share which is technically possible but I dont think its likely. Im trying to not pay so much attention to day to day and try to focus more on long term but days like these past few days really hurt.. Im down 1k these past 3 days. I got a little ahead of myself and went all in on full margin at 685.80 * I KNOW THAT WAS STUPID FOR ME TO DO THAT*, I gotta manage my risk better but its such a terrible feeling when Im sitting on the sidelines or not all in when apple is going up. Thing about apple is its very forgiving. Im down about 20 points per share at this moment on my most recent trade but Im sure it will come back soon enough.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 26, 2012 13:15:43 GMT -8
I've got 665.18 on my screen. Google off again? Yesterday they were 15 minutes off while the stock was tanking. Triangulate data sources if you need to. Yahoo! Finance, your trading platform, etc. Agreed on the Google though. It "turned off" yesterday while Yahoo! Finance was still providing real-time updates.
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Post by rosie on Sept 26, 2012 13:19:29 GMT -8
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 26, 2012 13:21:27 GMT -8
No question HFTs have made investing and trading so much more...fun? than it needs to be.
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Post by Plato on Sept 26, 2012 13:27:48 GMT -8
IMO we will test the 650ish area close to the lower daily BB, for me almost inevitable. But then, I am wrong also a lot of times. No offense but I hope your wrong. The sooner we get back over 700 the better. Im realistic and it could take a few weeks or longer. Either way Its difficult to get upset over drops when I have made so much money already this year in apple stock. There is literally 0% chance I can lose my original investment. Apple would have to go to about 500 a share which is technically possible but I dont think its likely. Im trying to not pay so much attention to day to day and try to focus more on long term but days like these past few days really hurt.. Im down 1k these past 3 days. I got a little ahead of myself and went all in on full margin at 685.80 * I KNOW THAT WAS STUPID FOR ME TO DO THAT*, I gotta manage my risk better but its such a terrible feeling when Im sitting on the sidelines or not all in when apple is going up. Thing about apple is its very forgiving. Im down about 20 points per share at this moment on my most recent trade but Im sure it will come back soon enough. No offense taken Apple might be forgiving, but margin accounts are not! I don't know how much AAPL would have to decline for you to get a margin call, but if you get there then you can say good bye to your investment and profit! You have to learn to manage your money and risk - assuming a stock will not decline to a certain level solely on the grounds of hope and/or belief is not good enough. A lot of members here painfully remember 2008 when AAPL went from 200 to 78 and lost 60% of its value. A 25% drop in the market and AAPL are possible and then you have your $500 share price. Not saying it WILL happen, but it CAN happen - sh$t happens all the time and that's why risk management is so important. Determine how much you are willing to lose and invest accordingly - don't compromise. If you made already profit (and it sounds like you have), why in the world risk your profit?? Again, determine how much you are willing to give up from your profit and then act accordingly. Don't want to tell you what to do - just trying to point out how important money management is. A fool and his money are soon parted! Good luck to you!
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Post by artman1033 on Sept 26, 2012 13:46:07 GMT -8
Plato, I am doing this without looking. AAPL in January 2008 was $200, went to $121, bounced to $176, down to $78 on March 9th, 2009.
It is so etched in memory.
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Post by podboy on Sept 26, 2012 13:47:14 GMT -8
There were some underlining factors in 2008. Not saying that anything can't happen here but I think the downside risk is minimal here. Last week was the largest phone launch in history. I think we have a better chance of seeing 700 rather than 600.
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Post by Plato on Sept 26, 2012 13:58:19 GMT -8
Plato, I am doing this without looking. AAPL in January 2008 was $200, went to $121, bounced to $176, down to $78 on March 9th, 2009. It is so etched in memory. I believe you w/o looking if you're right or not But that wasn't my point I tried to make to our friend here. Risk Management is the key to all of it. I know plenty of people here might disagree with me on that one, but I rather would have sold in 2008 at $170 (setting a 15% stop from the high of 200) and paid taxes on my profit and then buy back at around $100 in 2009 when it was clear that we are back in an uptrend. The profit one would have made would have outweighed the taxes by a wide margin. I know a lot here just invest and never touch a single share, but they don't do it fully margined. But that's what the person I responded to is doing - and that is IMO very risky and irresponsible money management.
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Post by rickag on Sept 26, 2012 14:01:05 GMT -8
I had 6 Jan 14 835/850 BCSs, thought I'd add to them. Placed a $3.40 bid when the mark was at $3.52, they filled before I raised my hand from hitting the send button. AAPL was at about $663.50. Just warning everyone since after I buy it is AAPLs general pattern to go down more. We broke that pattern, nice trade! Here's hoping.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 26, 2012 15:09:14 GMT -8
Welcome, deagol!
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Sept 26, 2012 15:21:38 GMT -8
JD, I think it's bad luck when you make the intraday thread OK, fine, let Mav start the Thursday thread, and see if he can jumpstart this bitch.
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Post by Wile E. Coyote on Sept 26, 2012 15:36:14 GMT -8
Opened my first Jan 2015 LEAP this morning, $800 strike price Apple has 28 months to climb 33% to take this above break even at expiration date. Thanks roni, and all the others who do the same, for sharing your purchase information. I particularly like how you periodically share your entire portfolio. It helps give me a sense of the big picture in how a successful investor puts together holdings. Best wishes to you in the future, Wile E.
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Post by bribery on Sept 26, 2012 15:39:23 GMT -8
Hi Everyone,
Today I opened 9 670 weeklies @ $5.20. They went up to $7 but did not sell. Now they're at $3.8. Really bad move, but hoping I'll break even tomorrow.
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Post by Odd-Lot Richard on Sept 26, 2012 16:01:58 GMT -8
Hm? Mr Tello? Where? Big fan!
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 26, 2012 16:12:17 GMT -8
Hasn't posted yet. But hoping it is indeed, "the deagol".
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Post by tradermac on Sept 26, 2012 17:41:30 GMT -8
This would suck if true. ihnatko.com/2012/09/26/idle-ipad-mini-thought/Idle iPad Mini Thought Posted on September 26, 2012 at 12:54 pm Nothing more. The iPhone 5 event was already overloaded with content. They rolled out the iPhone 5, showed off a completely revamped Nano and Touch, and there was a brand-new dock connector that needed explaining. This in addition to the usual parade of data about how successful the Apple Stores and everything else are…and three songs from Foo Fighters. My idle thought is this: if Apple were indeed planning to hold an iPad Mini event in October, do you think maybe they would waited until then to announce the revamped iTunes Store and the new edition of iTunes? They could have ended the spiel by saying “And both of these things are rolling out today” instead of “They’ll be available starting in October.” The iPod Touch and Shuffle won’t be released until October, either. But preorders started almost immediately (so Apple could get a jump on holiday buying). It makes perfect sense for those products to have been included in the September event. But why the other two? It just seems…odd…that Apple didn’t save them for an October event that was already locked and loaded, instead of adding iTunes and the Store to an already packed September 12 program. Those two announcements were just as heavily overshadowed by the iPhone 5 news as they would have been by an iPad Mini unveiling. So it’s not like those products were better served by pairing them with the iPhone. (The only solid explanation that’s occurred to me: Apple has to share advance information about the new Store and the new iTunes with enough outsiders that a leak was inevitable. Better to make an official announcement and get ahead of the leaks.) I still have no firsthand info about concrete plans to release a smaller iPad, yea or nay. I’m just wondering if this “iPad Mini in October” rumor is as rock-solid as many people think it is. Plus, just as a sailor knows that land is just over the horizon when he starts to see birds, I keep looking out for some specific Early Signs that almost always precede a major Apple announcement. I haven’t seen those yet. If I still haven’t seen them by the first week in October…hmm. Just a thought.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 26, 2012 17:43:10 GMT -8
Ihnatko doesn't like Apple anymore or something.
That aside, the Rumor Guys™ - mostly Dalrymple - are the ones to watch on this. So let a known rumor source say, "we thought it was happenin' in October, but there is no iPad Air yet".
You could just-as-plausibly make the case that Apple thought it over and decided "hey wait, since when is iPad Air a Music Event thing? It's the revolution, only smaller!™ So let's give it more attention and just announce the other stuff a little early!"
"Worst case", AAPL should do just fine without iPad Air for now. Hey, it's surviving without an Apple television.
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Post by tradermac on Sept 26, 2012 17:49:41 GMT -8
"yep" totally agree. At least I don't think an iPad air is priced in, so if we don't get one, big meh, iphone 5 and holiday sales should push us into year end.
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Post by moltenfire on Sept 26, 2012 18:42:59 GMT -8
Ihnatko doesn't like Apple anymore or something. That aside, the Rumor Guys� - mostly Dalrymple - are the ones to watch on this. So let a known rumor source say, "we thought it was happenin' in October, but there is no iPad Air yet". You could just-as-plausibly make the case that Apple thought it over and decided "hey wait, since when is iPad Air a Music Event thing? It's the revolution, only smaller!� So let's give it more attention and just announce the other stuff a little early!" "Worst case", AAPL should do just fine without iPad Air for now. Hey, it's surviving without an Apple television. Worst case short-term, AAPL's waiting until the annual iPad refresh in the spring to do an iPad mini along with the iPad 4.
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Sept 26, 2012 18:44:23 GMT -8
Pain range now stands at 670-674.99.
That could always go up tomorrow if we go up.
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Post by drewbear on Sept 26, 2012 18:51:13 GMT -8
Dalrymple, Ihnatko & Gruber have long had genuine Apple sources. Ritchie at iMore and Gurman "The Kid" at 9to5mac are building a rep with sources of their own. But Ihnatko has been hanging out too long with Laporte and is now leaning towards the Apple-isn't-as-great-as-it-once-was side. He's made the mistake of thinking that Android and Windows Phone are "just as good" as iOS. Utter booshido.
Andy is also peeved that he's not getting credit for predicting something more than the iPhone 5 would be announced on Sep. 12th. The others were saying that the iPhone was too big to share the spotlight. That clearly was not true, so now he's wondering out loud if maybe the Apple punditry is also wrong about the iPad mini.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 26, 2012 18:57:27 GMT -8
I dont think the intro of the iPad Air/Mini will be in the next 3 weeks. I would question the logic of apple introducing a all new product line within weeks of its biggest product launch ever (iPhone 5). Introducing one that early would undoubted be making a fair few people make a choice between getting the iPhone 5 OR the iPad Air. Best to let them get the phone and then hit them with the iPad Air closer to xmas It would perhaps be OK if its announced at the end of October (around windows 8 launch time would do nicely) - for shipping 2-3 weeks later in mid to late November.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 26, 2012 18:59:10 GMT -8
Pain range now stands at 670-674.99. That could always go up tomorrow if we go up. Seems like the dog is wagging the tail this week for once.
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 26, 2012 19:03:28 GMT -8
Rupert, many, many thanks for posting the daily support/resistance levels!!! (I don't know what happened to willrob... )
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Post by drewbear on Sept 26, 2012 19:03:35 GMT -8
Worst case short-term, AAPL's waiting until the annual iPad refresh in the spring to do an iPad mini along with the iPad 4. Exactly. We'll see what kind of iPad numbers Apple reports in a few weeks. If it's cruising along at 15+ million, then clearly none of the slew of sub-$300 tablets announced in recent weeks is affecting sales. OTOH, maybe Apple decides the mini is ready and just wants to squash the Nexus 7/Kindle Fire/Nook contingent this holiday quarter. No mercy. And of course there's the Surface debut. Why not rain on Microsoft's parade at the same time?
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 26, 2012 19:17:52 GMT -8
I am having a little trouble keeping my conspiracy theories straight. JD is saying that the EO's will drive AAPL to 685-690 for max pain and others are calling the current sell off to 650 a bear raid orchestrated by the EO's. This implies that we should see an inexplicable 35 point rise Thursday and Friday, or that there are multiple EO's with different agendas. Multiple EO's is just too messy as conspiracy theories go, not because it isn't likely, but because it is too hard to use as a basis for conjecture. On the other hand, a 35 point rise by Friday would destroy the credibility of most of the FUD. Seeking some sort of consistency in this conundrum makes me wonder if max pain works until it doesn't. Can we assume that the profits from the bear raid will be so great that the EO's don't mind taking the hit on the options? If so, this seems to be a massive vote of confidence in AAPL by the EO's. They would not take this hit unless they were very sure that AAPl was going much higher. Or, we could see the 35 point rise, the FUD credibility is not that much of a loss. Either way, hang in there, we all know where AAPL will be in 6 months Oooooh, are we playing "conspiracy theory"? I'm in!!! ;D My take on options pain... Got this from Mace... When we're in an uptrend, we run toward the highest OI for calls. When we're in a downtrend, we run toward the highest OI for puts. My theory: if we close closer to the highest OI for puts, then the EOs (obviously) sold calls. If we close closer to the highest OI for calls, then the EOs (obviously) sold puts. The house always wins. The EOs sold calls last week.
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Post by artman1033 on Sept 26, 2012 19:25:58 GMT -8
iPad mini?
Let me give my reason (and props to the great Sponge) there will be no iPad mini. There is no room in the iPad/iPod touch family for a middle product.
1) the iPod touch is being marketed by Apple in 12 varieties at 2 different price points. $299, $399 2) the iPad2 is being marketed by Apple in 8 varieties at 2 different price points. $399 and $529. 3) the New Ipad is being marketed by Apple in 12 varieties at 6 different price points. $499, $599, $629, $699. $729, $829
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 26, 2012 19:38:30 GMT -8
IMO we will test the 650ish area close to the lower daily BB, for me almost inevitable. But then, I am wrong also a lot of times. Ditto from me on all of Plato's trading-related posts today!
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