JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,181
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Post by JDSoCal on Sept 26, 2012 19:49:04 GMT -8
Ihnatko doesn't like Apple anymore or something. That aside, the Rumor Guys™ - mostly Dalrymple - are the ones to watch on this. So let a known rumor source say, "we thought it was happenin' in October, but there is no iPad Air yet". I agree with Mav, except it isn't called "rumor;" it's called "deep background" when people have sources they can paraphrase but not quote or identify directly. I don't want to attack or ruffle feathers, but please, until you have better sources than the Rumor Guys™ Deep Background Guys™, this, "I don't think Apple will do X because Y" is just an exercise in Wild-Assed Guessing (some commentators call this "analysis," but I am far too nice to name them). Instead, at least make yourselves useful by sending Dalrymple a tweet to try to extract a "yep" or "nope" from him to confirm. On a personal note, I sure picked one hell of a week to cut back on the beer.
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Post by sponge on Sept 26, 2012 20:41:12 GMT -8
iPad mini? Let me give my reason (and props to the great Sponge) there will be no iPad mini. There is no room in the iPad/iPod touch family for a middle product. 1) the iPod touch is being marketed by Apple in 12 varieties at 2 different price points. $299, $399 2) the iPad2 is being marketed by Apple in 8 varieties at 2 different price points. $399 and $529. 3) the New Ipad is being marketed by Apple in 12 varieties at 6 different price points. $499, $599, $629, $699. $729, $829 I agree. Price is only one issue, but perhaps the most important. Margins and profit are more important then market share. But user experience is important as well. We can agree there is a market for the Mini, I don't think Apple is threatened by that market nor do they want to enter it. If the Mini was such a must have, I think it would have been introduced by now. If you can use a Touch then the next logical move is the regular size iPad. I think the Oct event will be linked to a radically resigned iMac. Apple need to focus back on the desktop and feed the Halo affect caused by all the iOS products.
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Post by adamthompson32 on Sept 26, 2012 21:05:51 GMT -8
iPad mini? Let me give my reason (and props to the great Sponge) there will be no iPad mini. There is no room in the iPad/iPod touch family for a middle product. 1) the iPod touch is being marketed by Apple in 12 varieties at 2 different price points. $299, $399 2) the iPad2 is being marketed by Apple in 8 varieties at 2 different price points. $399 and $529. 3) the New Ipad is being marketed by Apple in 12 varieties at 6 different price points. $499, $599, $629, $699. $729, $829 Price point dictates product offering? I can't see the logic in that. One thing has nothing to do with the other. Or at least price isn't the independent variable with products being the dependent.
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Post by pauls on Sept 26, 2012 21:09:16 GMT -8
They do, and hopefully will. But adding a smaller iPad would only brighten the halo. The current sized iPad is great in the car. A smaller one would be far better, and much easier to integrate.
Smaller (cheaper) would be better for young kids (tomorrow's iPhone and MacBook users).
Smaller would be better for lots of service jobs.
Smaller would be better for gift-giving.
Smaller would be better to take along with your laptop for business travelers.
A smaller iPad would add to iOS devices, period. I think there is value in that beyond margins, which would no doubt be industry-leading.
I will say that the scarcity of both part leaks and solid-ish rumors is starting to make an october announcement seem a little less likely.
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Post by adamthompson32 on Sept 26, 2012 21:18:05 GMT -8
iPad mini? Let me give my reason (and props to the great Sponge) there will be no iPad mini. There is no room in the iPad/iPod touch family for a middle product. 1) the iPod touch is being marketed by Apple in 12 varieties at 2 different price points. $299, $399 2) the iPad2 is being marketed by Apple in 8 varieties at 2 different price points. $399 and $529. 3) the New Ipad is being marketed by Apple in 12 varieties at 6 different price points. $499, $599, $629, $699. $729, $829 Margins and profit are more important then market share. You got one thing right. Profit is most important. Large margins can lead to large profits. But "large profits" is a relative term and doesn't necessarily mean maximal. If there is a large iPod Touch market and iPhone market and iPad market there is a large iPad Mini market. The play here is to hit every screen size and sell as many devices as possible profitably. Rest assured apple will have "high" margins on any product it launches and total profits will soar as a result of iPad Mini because total units will make up for the small overall ASP and margin erosion. In the end, total profit will grow despite margins coming down slightly. iPad Mini is a massive no brainer in order for Apple to hit every screen size and truly dominate touch mobile computing.
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Post by adamthompson32 on Sept 26, 2012 21:25:30 GMT -8
iPad mini? Let me give my reason (and props to the great Sponge) there will be no iPad mini. There is no room in the iPad/iPod touch family for a middle product. 1) the iPod touch is being marketed by Apple in 12 varieties at 2 different price points. $299, $399 2) the iPad2 is being marketed by Apple in 8 varieties at 2 different price points. $399 and $529. 3) the New Ipad is being marketed by Apple in 12 varieties at 6 different price points. $499, $599, $629, $699. $729, $829 Apple need to focus back on the desktop and feed the Halo affect caused by all the iOS products. I don't think there's much hope for Mac to ever dominate like iPad. To me, Windows is just soooo much better than the Mac operating system. For the web (surfing and email) I can use Google Chrome (my favorite browser because it translates every website to English automatically) on my Macs no problem. But I can't do anything else on them. MS Office is crippled on them so they're useless outside of web browsing. Mac hardware is absolutely awesome!! My MBP is still going strong after a couple years and my MBA is the coolest lightest laptop ever. But the software is horrendous. Not sure if they'll ever get that fixed but if they do Mac sales will boom. Until then, Mac will see tiny growth no matter what they do with the hardware.
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Post by davidcv100 on Sept 26, 2012 21:31:56 GMT -8
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 26, 2012 21:53:39 GMT -8
iPad mini? Let me give my reason (and props to the great Sponge) there will be no iPad mini. There is no room in the iPad/iPod touch family for a middle product. 1) the iPod touch is being marketed by Apple in 12 varieties at 2 different price points. $299, $399 2) the iPad2 is being marketed by Apple in 8 varieties at 2 different price points. $399 and $529. 3) the New Ipad is being marketed by Apple in 12 varieties at 6 different price points. $499, $599, $629, $699. $729, $829 respectfully offer an opposing view 1. I dont agree that an iPad Mini would target the same consumers as the iPod touch - in most use cases they offer significantly different values at the same price point (pocketability vs Screen size being the main differentiator). Look at the macbook family - there are macbook Airs & macbook Pros at the same price point but consumers can see the value differences quite clearly between the two (Portability vs power/storage) 2. Its highly likely the higher storage capacity iPad mini would replace the $399 iPad 2, and have a cheaper entry level model at $299. likely a with/without LTE wireless option on both models. 3. Not quite sure what the issue is with the number of SKU's? the New iPad has 3 options: Storage (x3) colours (x2) & with/without wireless.
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deagol
New Poster
Amateur Apple analyst since 2001
Posts: 5
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Post by deagol on Sept 26, 2012 22:44:32 GMT -8
Thanks! ( so now you're spying on me, I see... )
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Post by sponge on Sept 26, 2012 23:03:05 GMT -8
Thanks! ( so now you're spying on me, I see... )Hey we need part 4 and an update to your amazing analysis on Apple Growth Limits. I use it to justify my highly margined investing that will continue for another minimum 20 years. Stop by Breaburngroup when you have time. Great discussions there.
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Mav
Member
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Post by Mav on Sept 26, 2012 23:04:25 GMT -8
Thanks! ( so now you're spying on me, I see... )Hardly Since I'm not 100% sure if you're aware of it, I just happened to see you show up as the newest signup on the "info center" section of the home page. It was much harder to keep track of everyone joining in the early days of...two weeks ago. AAPL estimation sure has gotten trickier over the past couple of quarters, hasn't it?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 26, 2012 23:18:48 GMT -8
iPhone 5 launching here in New Zealand tonight at midnight - headline news on the major news shows - unfortunately 90% of the coverage is about how bad Maps are on the new device. This is the last time I'll mention the major PR screwup that is Maps.
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Post by drewbear on Sept 26, 2012 23:22:15 GMT -8
The play here is to hit every screen size and sell as many devices as possible profitably. Rest assured apple will have "high" margins on any product it launches and total profits will soar as a result of iPad Mini because total units will make up for the small overall ASP and margin erosion. In the end, total profit will grow despite margins coming down slightly. iPad Mini is a massive no brainer in order for Apple to hit every screen size and truly dominate touch mobile computing. I wholeheartedly agree! The only thing in doubt is timing. Next spring is fine, but Oct./Nov. is better.
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Mav
Member
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Post by Mav on Sept 26, 2012 23:24:13 GMT -8
Maps needs work. Lots of it. Some of my own informal navigation testing has been decidedly mixed (using my 4S).
Let Apple be motivated by the embarrassment and the competition giving it a hard time for its foibles. Consumers win in the end.
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