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Post by lovemyipad on Jun 28, 2013 18:41:04 GMT -5
The bar is open!
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Post by coma on Jun 28, 2013 19:16:30 GMT -5
Your late to the party.
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burgess
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Post by burgess on Jun 28, 2013 19:24:37 GMT -5
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 28, 2013 19:34:18 GMT -5
Inevitable that Apple would diversify.
Of the options, which I guess are TSMC and Qualcomm these days, maybe TSMC was the most "friendly". As far as Samsung, since they don't do hardware/software integration the way Apple does (it's just fact, since they don't code their own smartphone software from scratch), this isn't really a big deal. Samsung went the "stock" A15/A7 combo route, and Apple will simply go whichever way it decides to go. Which I highly doubt will be 8 cores, and might not even be 4. Until Apple stops asking Samsung to build SoCs, I'm sure it'll be a "perfectly agreeable" supply relationship (as agreeable as it can be anyway).
It'll be intensely interesting to see if Intel ever offers foundry services to Apple. That writing is being etched on the wall (the slow marginalization of x86 to bigger trucks and pickups, anyway) as we speak.
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greggthurman
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Post by greggthurman on Jun 28, 2013 20:01:23 GMT -5
Thinking about next Friday's contracts, I don't see the market getting excited about earnings season this year. To much left over noise from Bernanke's comments in the water.
I think that will have a doubly negative impact on AAPL as I'm expecting further erosion in YoY EPS compares, despite share buyback.
On the other hand I am expecting guidance that will signal the return to both Revenue AND EPS growth during FQ4/2013. FQ1/2014 should be stellar, and I think the institutions will go into AAPL accumulate mode during FQ4/2013. Current Institutional Ownership is 61.90%. It will be interesting to see how that changes as end of quarter reports are made. I'll be watching.
To top it off we will get some clarity as to how aggressive Apple will be with its buyback program during the July conference call. Both of these influences should add upward price pressure.
So bottom line, there is good reason to expect AAPL to go up during FQ4/2013 except for its FQ3/2013 earnings report.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 28, 2013 20:03:57 GMT -5
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Post by dylkeeg77 on Jun 29, 2013 8:55:30 GMT -5
On the other hand I am expecting guidance that will signal the return to both Revenue AND EPS growth during FQ4/2013. FQ1/2014 should be stellar, and I think the institutions will go into AAPL accumulate mode during FQ4/2013. Current Institutional Ownership is 61.90%. It will be interesting to see how that changes as end of quarter reports are made. I'll be watching.
Did you notice the huge spike in volume after hours? The June quarter and window dressing is over. This could be the institutions starting appl accumulation early. Hopefully this is a sign we will have a better July.
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Post by lovemyipad on Jun 29, 2013 10:40:36 GMT -5
Mav, I love your new blog!!  |
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jun 29, 2013 11:53:45 GMT -5
Mav, I love your new blog!! Me too . Not bad at all.. But could use more cowbell. ( and Star Trek ) |
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Post by lovemyipad on Jun 29, 2013 12:12:40 GMT -5
LOL, Red!!!
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greggthurman
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Post by greggthurman on Jun 29, 2013 12:33:33 GMT -5
Did you notice the huge spike in volume after hours? The June quarter and window dressing is over. This could be the institutions starting appl accumulation early. Hopefully this is a sign we will have a better July. I did not. Great observation. AH volume was about 4,000,000 shares above daily average. hmmmm, who would want 4,000,000 shares on the kast trading day of the quarter? A clue could be in this tidbit. I haven't examined every trade, but of the several pages I did review all of the large block trades were made on downticks. Does that ring any bells? I'm adjusted my share count downward by 4,000,000 shares. editOh, I forgot to add, I have now seen trading activity that says Apple is buying. I think this is how Apple intends to do it - After Hours on the last trading day of the quarter. In this manner management cannot be accused of attempting to pump the stock (increased buy side volume), while at the same time complying with buying on downticks (much easier to manage After Hours). |
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greggthurman
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Post by greggthurman on Jun 29, 2013 12:41:04 GMT -5
OK, I've adjusted my share count down 4,000,000 shares, and put final touches on my estimates.
Revenue: $35.318 Billion
EPS: $7.73
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Post by redinaustin on Jun 29, 2013 13:07:37 GMT -5
Happy 6th Birthday iPhone!
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 29, 2013 13:28:14 GMT -5
Thanks! Every would-be blogger wants attention glory untold riches to be read, followed, maybe even referred to a friend. Red, copyright issues/blog topicality aside  , my customization opportunities are limited due to my being on the free version. I can add photos here and there - other fun stuff like an AAPL ticker don't seem to be in the cards without a paid upgrade (like I'll ever get the traffic) and CSS/JavaScript ...which is copypasta simple in ProBoards, but maybe not elsewhere? |
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Post by rickag on Jun 29, 2013 13:44:07 GMT -5
Did you notice the huge spike in volume after hours? The June quarter and window dressing is over. This could be the institutions starting appl accumulation early. Hopefully this is a sign we will have a better July. I did not. Great observation. AH volume was about 4,000,000 shares above daily average. hmmmm, who would want 4,000,000 shares on the kast trading day of the quarter? A clue could be in this tidbit. I haven't examined every trade, but of the several pages I did review all of the large block trades were made on downticks. Does that ring any bells? I'm adjusted my share count downward by 4,000,000 shares. 4000000 / 16000000 = .25 Curious |
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Post by bud777 on Jun 29, 2013 14:12:31 GMT -5
This might be an interesting diversion for the run up to earnings. When estimating revenue, gross margin and earnings per share, first decide on the maximum number, i.e. the smallest number that you are absolutely sure that Apple will not exceed. Since the upper range of Apple's guidance was 35.5 billion, you might be absolutely confident that it will not exceed 50. Or 45...you decide. Then choose the absolute minimum..the number that you are positive would be the lower end. They guided 33, maybe use 30. up to you. After you have made these choices and only after, choose the most likely number in that range between the min and max. Now calculate (min+max+4*most likely)/6.
As for me, I would guess something like:
Min Max Most Likely Estimate
Revenue 34 37 35.5 35.5
Gross margin 36 39 37 37.16
The estimation technique is used in PERT scheduling and is uncannily accurate. If anyone tries it, it would be interesting to post results here.
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greggthurman
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Post by greggthurman on Jun 29, 2013 15:12:35 GMT -5
This might be an interesting diversion for the run up to earnings. When estimating revenue, gross margin and earnings per share, first decide on the maximum number, i.e. the smallest number that you are absolutely sure that Apple will not exceed. Since the upper range of Apple's guidance was 35.5 billion, you might be absolutely confident that it will not exceed 50. Or 45...you decide. Then choose the absolute minimum..the number that you are positive would be the lower end. They guided 33, maybe use 30. up to you. After you have made these choices and only after, choose the most likely number in that range between the min and max. Now calculate (min+max+4*most likely)/6. As for me, I would guess something like: Min Max Most Likely Estimate Revenue 34 37 35.5 35.5 Gross margin 36 39 37 37.16 The estimation technique is used in PERT scheduling and is uncannily accurate. If anyone tries it, it would be interesting to post results here. For min/max calculations I'd recommend using historical percentage deviations from guidance since July 2012 results. That generates a low revenue of $34,500.000.000, and a high revenue of $37,750,000,000. Adding 4X my estimate then dividing by 6 = $35,587,000,000. Now we wait. |
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 29, 2013 15:13:46 GMT -5
Accounting for Oppenheimer's "new" (?) standard for earnings guidance - "likely to report within"
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marcellus
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Post by marcellus on Jun 29, 2013 15:20:23 GMT -5
Good looking blog Mav! I know Wordpress has many formats to aim your dart at but you hit a bullseye. My only format suggestion is that Times Roman in the title doesn't play nice with Arial in the body, if I have my fonts right. Solid writing, as we've come to appreciate (which isn't the same as "an acquired taste: haha). I was hoping the Technicals section gave the reader specs on Apple gear, but all I see are squiggly lines. Can I post pics of Shu Qi on it?  |
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marcellus
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Post by marcellus on Jun 29, 2013 15:22:37 GMT -5
OK, I've adjusted my share count down 4,000,000 shares, and put final touches on my estimates. Revenue: $35.318 Billion EPS: $7.73 Your GM has to be strong (i.e. higher than Apple's guidance) if you're under the top end of the sales range and you're reducing share count by only 4M shares. |
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, my customization opportunities are limited due to my being on the free version. I can add photos here and there - other fun stuff like an AAPL ticker don't seem to be in the cards without a paid upgrade (like I'll ever get the traffic) and CSS/JavaScript ...which is copypasta simple in ProBoards, but maybe not elsewhere?
