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Post by Zeke on Jul 1, 2013 22:10:07 GMT -8
Don't you just hate it when a plan comes together? I wish all my options trades worked as well. I was really dreading getting caught with a few hundred shares worth of AAPL sitting in cash while the stock price took off. I'm very relieved.
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icam
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Post by icam on Jul 1, 2013 22:14:46 GMT -8
Not sure I understand why people don't upgrade at least every 24 months. It's quite easy to sell one's iPhone on Craigslist for MORE than the cost of a new iPhone under a new agreement. Apple probably has some kind of understanding with the carriers to not promote this fact, but they would undoubtedly sell more iPhones if they did. ATT, Verizon, et al are collecting approx. $20 extra profit per month from customers who are out of contract after the subsidy matures. Here's my reason for not automatically upgrading every 24 months: I have Verizon and my contract is an original one with an unlimited data plan. If I get a new iPhone on a new 2 year contract, I lose the unlimited data. I want the unlimited data. I can keep the unlimited data plan if I bring a new phone into the situation myself. I can do that by buying an iPhone from the Apple store. I plan to purchase a new one after the next release, provided the upgraded iPhone is compelling. Another advantage is that I am not locked into a 2 yr contract, I can switch to another plan anytime I want should another company offer a compelling offer, I can also sell my phone anytime I want as we'll. I like the flexibility.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 1, 2013 22:46:04 GMT -8
Another day with lots of GREEN in the futures. This could be habit forming.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 1, 2013 22:49:50 GMT -8
Had a very interesting discussion with OVI this evening. OVI brought up a question regarding number of Apple's installed base that upgrades to the new model and when. This got me to thinking about putting that into a formula, then charting yearly results of each quarter. Example: In FQ1/2010 Apple sold 8,737,000 iPhones of all models. In FQ1/2012 (assumed 2 year life with original purchaser) Apple sold 37,044,000 iPhones, or 4.23 iPhones for each iPhone sold in FQ1/2010, a ratio of 3.23:1. Now many factors can influence that ratio, but for that quarter the ratio is fact. I then looked at the history of the quarter's ratio, always in a two year comparison context. First of all, as you would expect with growing numbers, the ratio is declining. The rate of decline cannot be accurately fixed because of the limited amount of two year over two year comparison data. Still, estimating FQ1/2014 installed base buy rate I come up with 61 million iPhones sold. That's just 6 million over my original estimate and relies on 64 buyers in addition to every 100 that bought an iPhone in FQ1/2012. That's down from last year's 323 buyers for every 100 that bought in FQ1/2010. Comments? Greg, As a quant myself, I appreciate what your trying to do. I'm an Apple fanboy, but I think your 2 yr upgrade cycle might be a bit aggressive. Here's a data point for you. I purchased 2 iPhone 4S's in the early spring 2011. That was about 28 months ago. I haven't upgraded yet. I'm waiting for the next version (5S?), and that would put me at about a 32 month upgrade cycle. If the next phone isn't that big of a leap over what I've already got, I might not upgrade which will push my upgrade cycle out further. Like I said, I'm an Apple product lover- own like 2 of everything they've got, but I'm not upgrading without a compelling reason, so I'm willing to bet the less enthusiastic Apple user will be even more reluctant than me to upgrade on your assumed cycle. I'm only one data point though, so take it for what its worth. The iPhone 4S only came out 21 months ago in Oct 2011 - is that a typo?
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