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Post by PikesPique on Sept 27, 2012 6:57:16 GMT -8
See JD's max pain range - looks like that might be back in play.
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Post by phoebear611 on Sept 27, 2012 7:10:55 GMT -8
653?? I've been watching the stock fall from 664 to the 660s and rise to 666. This 653 you see must be the result of one of those glitches that happen from time to time. I saw that on the CNBC mobile app and it gave me a good scare! It listed it as the low of the day, now it is updated to 660.35. Phew! The mobile CNBC app is completely screwed up today - don't look at the change - just look at price. I almost had a heart attack too!
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 27, 2012 7:12:39 GMT -8
Okay, this seems like a legit reversal. Anyone expecting one last pullback today? Or tomorrow? Me.
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Post by PikesPique on Sept 27, 2012 7:16:57 GMT -8
Lovey, which tea leaves are you reading. EW? Fib? I'd love to hear your TA on this. Maybe in chart talk?
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Post by rickag on Sept 27, 2012 7:23:26 GMT -8
Okay, this seems like a legit reversal. Anyone expecting one last pullback today? Or tomorrow? Me. Thanks for the heads up.
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 27, 2012 7:28:46 GMT -8
Lovey, which tea leaves are you reading. EW? Fib? I'd love to hear your TA on this. Maybe in chart talk? PikesPique, all of the above. Regular TA, Fibs, and EW... Come play with me in Chart Talk!!!!
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 27, 2012 7:41:03 GMT -8
Lower highs + lower lows = more downside (usually but not always)
EDIT: That's a higher high now, so looking better but not as strong as I'd like to see to break out of gravitational field (still bearish divergence). Yet.
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 27, 2012 7:42:03 GMT -8
Does anyone know where Max Pain is for tomorrow based on Mon thru Wed. adjustments? 670-674.99Technicals supporting this.
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Post by phoebear611 on Sept 27, 2012 7:59:41 GMT -8
I am just happy we're green - I don't care by how much - I just need green today.
How you doing MB? You hanging in there? .... all will be fine ... all this negativity shall pass.
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Post by trespif on Sept 27, 2012 8:05:48 GMT -8
think I'm going to sell some of my short term holdings here.
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Post by phoebear611 on Sept 27, 2012 8:06:58 GMT -8
Comments from Rajoy and others in Spain are giving rise to S&P here ...may take AAPL with it...short spike in S&P
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Post by tradermac on Sept 27, 2012 8:07:45 GMT -8
Maybe too many folks were expecting the 650s and kissing the lower BB? Guess it's not always so easy. This sure is a relief though.
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Post by Plato on Sept 27, 2012 8:12:26 GMT -8
Maybe too many folks were expecting the 650s and kissing the lower BB? Guess it's not always so easy. This sure is a relief though. True, true. Now it's just panic buying. Not getting on board yet.
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icam
Member
Posts: 447
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Post by icam on Sept 27, 2012 8:17:30 GMT -8
I know it's a cardinal sin, but I flipped by the evil CNBC and Najarian and crew from Fast Money show were on. They were loving and gushing on Apple and all stated they bought the dip. They expected the Monday/Tuesday dip due to bad rumor mill and a later in the week run up due to clarity and real news about how well Apple is really doing (for example 100 million iOS6 downloads in its first 24 hours of availability)....So we've got that going for us.....I beg forgiveness for my sin and now head back to Bloomberg.
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icam
Member
Posts: 447
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Post by icam on Sept 27, 2012 8:22:34 GMT -8
Oh, and Lovey, Pete Najarian was saying the dip was exasperated by the retail investor getting shaken out and that if they had owned some puts to protect their downside, they would have been able to ride it out....Driving home your repeated theme of having some downside insurance.
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Post by Plato on Sept 27, 2012 8:22:40 GMT -8
I bought a boat load full of weekly puts just now. This is completely insane. No stock goes from 660 - 680 in a couple of hours w/o correction. We'll see what happens this PM.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 27, 2012 8:24:01 GMT -8
I give up trying to figure out AAPL...
Back in long Apr 13s as a starter with an unreliable stop-limit order to reduce risk if AAPL hits, I dunno, 650 or IV crashes some more with AAPL in the high 650s.
Violating trading plans/rules, but at least I do know why - thesis is AAPL's made too much of a power move to ignore in the intermediate-term. If AAPL weakens, I might consider hedging against the position as a too-cute cash flow play.
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Post by appledoc on Sept 27, 2012 8:24:39 GMT -8
I sure wasn't expecting this today. The whole market has turned sharply green.
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 27, 2012 8:28:48 GMT -8
Watch 679.14 -- key Fib...bullish above...bearish below...
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 27, 2012 8:30:47 GMT -8
I don't think AAPL has to reclaim it in a single day...although it's already retesting...
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Post by joel90069 on Sept 27, 2012 8:34:30 GMT -8
Happy we're green but suspicious. Any news that makes today different from yesterday?
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 27, 2012 8:36:42 GMT -8
Happy we're green but suspicious. Any news that makes today different from yesterday? IMHO, oversold bounce. Just like we can't go straight up, we can't go straight down either.
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Post by dreamRaj on Sept 27, 2012 8:39:33 GMT -8
Now what would be crazier (just a thought) is if we retrace back to 660s in the next two hours. With AAPL, you never know!
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Post by phoebear611 on Sept 27, 2012 8:44:47 GMT -8
Watch 679.14 -- key Fib...bullish above...bearish below... I assume you mean a close above or below and not just an intra-day thing, correct?
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Post by phoebear611 on Sept 27, 2012 8:46:14 GMT -8
I bought a boat load full of weekly puts just now. This is completely insane. No stock goes from 660 - 680 in a couple of hours w/o correction. We'll see what happens this PM. Why doesn't anyone think it's crazy when it happens to GOOG? And why doesn't anyone ever use the term "parabolic" with GOOG's lastest rise? It's incredible how the media is sssoooo tainted.
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Post by davidcv100 on Sept 27, 2012 8:58:03 GMT -8
How accurate has this UBS analyst been with his channel checks and iPhone production estimates in the past? Thanks!
Apple: UBS Trims Dec. Qtr Ests On Tight iPhone 5 Supplies
UBS analyst Steve Milunovich has slashed his financial forecast for Apple‘s fiscal first quarter ending December 31, citing continued signs of tight supplies for the iPhone 5.
The analyst asserts that weak financial forecasts from both Skyworks and Jabil, as well as checks with the supply chain, suggest that iPhone supply issues continue to limit near-term shipments. The issue: low manufacturing yields for for the in-cell displays Apple is using in the new phone. “This shortfall mostly appears to be a timing issue though we assume some lost sales in an effort to be conservative,” he writes in a research note.
Milunovich continues to estimate September quarter iPhone units at 26 million, with 8-10 million iPhone 5s. But for the December quarter, he now sees sales of 38 million units, down from a previous forecast of 44 million, “with upside unlikely beyond 40 million.” His revenue estimate for the quarter drops to $49.3 billion from $53.1 billion; his EPS forecast to $13.65, from $15.03.
The analyst notes that he has not added the 6 million iPhones cut from his forecast to future quarters, taking the conservative view that shipment delays could result in some lost sales. He continues to forecast unit sales of 44 million in the March quarter, 43 million in the June quarter and 38 million in the September 2013 quarter, for a total of 163 million for the fiscal year.
He also trims his full year EPS view to $52.51 from $53.76, and now sits below consensus at $53.32.
All that said, he keeps in Buy rating on the shares. “We do not read the maps glitch and potential near-term shipment disappointment as a material change in the long-term story,” he writes. ” In our view, stock gains may not come as easily, but there are few tech franchises with Apple’s ROIC [return on invested capital] and growth at 11x EV/FCF [enterprise value/free cast flow].”
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 27, 2012 8:59:06 GMT -8
"I see December quarter iPhone sales flat YOY."
WHAT IS WRONG WITH THIS PICTURE
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 27, 2012 9:22:49 GMT -8
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 27, 2012 9:24:09 GMT -8
Watch 679.14 -- key Fib...bullish above...bearish below... I assume you mean a close above or below and not just an intra-day thing, correct? Yes.
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 27, 2012 9:25:07 GMT -8
I bought a boat load full of weekly puts just now. This is completely insane. No stock goes from 660 - 680 in a couple of hours w/o correction. We'll see what happens this PM. Why doesn't anyone think it's crazy when it happens to GOOG? And why doesn't anyone ever use the term "parabolic" with GOOG's lastest rise? It's incredible how the media is sssoooo tainted. Maybe they do? I don't hang out with GOOG trader/investors.
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