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Post by Deleted on Jul 20, 2013 13:18:27 GMT -8
iTunes/Software/Services is THE most consistent category that Apple reports, and if you look at YOY going back to Q1 2011 (as restated), it's quite easy to use 30%. And yeah, most estimates are rounded except for GM, which is derived from using different GMs for each product category. Nice to see somebody giving weight to this revenue category. I think it is the sleeper behind Apple's longer term Revenue strategy. Year end results for this category has been as follows: F2009 9.8% YoY F2010 18.0% YoY F2011 24.2% YoY F2012 27.4% YoY First half of F2013 51.6% YoY I'm not prepared to assign 51+% YoY growth for FQ3 and FQ4, so compromised at 42.7% and 44.8% respectively. FQ1/2014 is a real dilemma (the numbers go through the roof).
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Post by Deleted on Jul 20, 2013 13:19:44 GMT -8
The 18.75 or so million IPAD number hast squirming. I've missed iPad numbers badly three of the past four quarters running ( but close lady quarter) , the mini is such a hit.. But cannibalization of the bigger model may not yet be fully cooked in. Then we have the explosion in the education space. And the competition from the Surface , ( cough) iPads didn't see an update this Spring, but this fact is mitigated by iPad mini presence this time and to a far lesser extent, the 128GB iPad. Nonetheless, there WAS hope/expectation we might see an update Spring so that had a moderating influence on estimated units. Apple can always surprise, of course, and perhaps VZ wasn't an outlier. One other thing, Apple knew it had no chance to beat YOY on FQ3 earnings, so perhaps Apple deferred some of what it COULD have done to window-dress this quarter and pushed those options into FQ4 to turn around this negative sentiment. Of course, that would require strong FQ4 guidance now if FQ3 earnings wasn't going to do the trick.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 20, 2013 13:22:08 GMT -8
iTunes/Software/Services is THE most consistent category that Apple reports, and if you look at YOY going back to Q1 2011 (as restated), it's quite easy to use 30%. And yeah, most estimates are rounded except for GM, which is derived from using different GMs for each product category. Nice to see somebody giving weight to this revenue category. I think it is the sleeper behind Apple's longer term Revenue strategy. Year end results for this category has been as follows: F2009 9.8% YoY F2010 18.0% YoY F2011 24.2% YoY F2012 27.4% YoY First half of F2013 51.6% YoY I'm not prepared to assign 51+% YoY growth for FQ3 and FQ4, so compromised at 42.7% and 44.8% respectively. FQ1/2014 is a real dilemma (the numbers go through the roof). YOY average by quarter is a predictable 30% average going back to 2011. 2009 - 2010 are not good compares because I don't believe Apple restated iTunes/Software/Services going back that far.
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Post by appledoc on Jul 20, 2013 13:26:23 GMT -8
Turley Muller has 15.6 million IPads, that is all I saw in an article a few days ago. That wouldn't be shocking. Nothing new since the mini last fall. The start of 3Q12 was just two weeks after the 3rd gen iPad was released. The 4th gen iPad was an extremely marginal upgrade over the 3rd gen. The line is stale. I'm thinking somewhere in the 16-16.5 range.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 20, 2013 13:31:04 GMT -8
Gregg, you can be optimistic on M-W. Go enjoy your GT40 on Th-F. Yeah, wish I could. A few years back I developed a condition known as Blepheraspasm. This is where the 'blink' controller in your brain goes haywire and you can't control your blinking. I have been to 4 specialists in eye diseases (including bJohns Hopkins) and was told the same thing by all four. They know what it is, they don't know what causes it, and most importantly, they don't know how to cure it. The condition is getting progressively worse. My vision is 20/20 (lens replacement) when my eyes are open. Unfortunately they are only open if I hold the lids up. To drive a manual transmission I need four hands (one to steer, one to shift and two to hold my lids up). As much as I enjoyed the tickets and warnings I got in the GT, I wasn't safe at any speed. So I sold it.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 20, 2013 13:34:20 GMT -8
YOY average by quarter is a predictable 30% average going back to 2011. 2009 - 2010 are not good compares because I don't believe Apple restated iTunes/Software/Services going back that far. The only thing the restatement did was combine two of the 3 components in the category.
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Post by Luckychoices on Jul 20, 2013 13:51:06 GMT -8
Maybe once all the trash gets filtered out from the board. It gets old seeing imaginary facts and lies day after day here. Greg's comment on his March quarter performance was akin to Paul Ryan claiming he ran a sub-3 hour marathon. Don't count him out. Unfortunately, Gregg, you missed an excellent chance to not respond. That's too bad and I hope you do better next time. Most people are willing to accept you didn't correctly remember something from the past. But it would be apparent to most people, at least those who have run a marathon, that Paul Ryan didn't just "forget" that he didn't run a sub-3 hour marathon.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 20, 2013 13:53:46 GMT -8
YOY average by quarter is a predictable 30% average going back to 2011. 2009 - 2010 are not good compares because I don't believe Apple restated iTunes/Software/Services going back that far. The only thing the restatement did was combine two of the 3 components in the category. It was more complicated than that. Your YOY increases on an annual basis don't jive with a consistent 30% rise YOY by quarter. The answer to your Ford GT is a dual clutch transmission, whether it's PDK or DCT.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 20, 2013 14:00:25 GMT -8
Gasp! A completely civil response to a less than civil comment. Is there a chance this concept could catch on in this forum? Maybe once all the trash gets filtered out from the board. It gets old seeing imaginary facts and lies day after day here. Greg's comment on his March quarter performance was akin to Paul Ryan claiming he ran a sub-3 hour marathon. I knew my performance for FQ2 was far better than the 3 previous quarters (51% margin of error down to 8%) . I should have looked it up vs responding from the hip as I did. My bad. But never was there any intent to deceive.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 20, 2013 14:02:02 GMT -8
The lower iPads are, the "higher" iPhones have to be.
If I had to pick between "stale" iPads and "even more stale" iPhones, well, I'd still have to project iPad growing.
There is of the course the possibility that Apple actually ends up within its stated revenue range or even at the low end. Uh, that would be pretty bad.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 20, 2013 14:02:33 GMT -8
The only thing the restatement did was combine two of the 3 components in the category. It was more complicated than that. Your YOY increases on an annual basis don't jive with a consistent 30% rise YOY by quarter. Mercel, can you call me? I'd like to know more about how we differ on this. 509/443-5783.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 20, 2013 14:10:24 GMT -8
The lower iPads are, the "higher" iPhones have to be. This is why I've stated that determining unit sales and ASPs aren't as important as following management's Guidance. Unit sales are only important if you are trying to discern demand trends. In a market that has yet to hit saturation, this isn't as important as one might believe, when new models are introduced annually. Nor are those trends easily discerned when you don't know the market strategy and goals of management.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 20, 2013 14:22:32 GMT -8
This should probably do it. If not, let me know.
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bud777
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Post by bud777 on Jul 20, 2013 14:55:36 GMT -8
Gasp! A completely civil response to a less than civil comment. Is there a chance this concept could catch on in this forum? Maybe once all the trash gets filtered out from the board. It gets old seeing imaginary facts and lies day after day here. Greg's comment on his March quarter performance was akin to Paul Ryan claiming he ran a sub-3 hour marathon. AppleDoc, when do you get to the courses on bedside manner?
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Post by Deleted on Jul 20, 2013 15:18:12 GMT -8
This should probably do it. If not, let me know. Crap, in addition to consolidating two of the three segments, Apple moved revenue from other areas into the new consolidated categories. It doesn't impact true growth, just YoY comparisons to un-restated results. I sure as hell missed that. Thanks.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 20, 2013 15:26:45 GMT -8
Yep. That's why ASPs declined on iPhones and iPads from moving sales of certain accessories into the new group. It was a bit of a pain to reformat on my side.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 20, 2013 16:06:08 GMT -8
Yep. That's why ASPs declined on iPhones and iPads from moving sales of certain accessories into the new group. It was a bit of a pain to reformat on my side. Not so much here, but I did have to look up the last couple of quarters for 2012 to finish the update. I like the new revenue reporting format. It gives a clearer picture of what is going on. Makes me wonder if this and the new Guidance metric aren't coming from TC's "more transparency" philosophy.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jul 20, 2013 16:59:56 GMT -8
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Post by Deleted on Jul 20, 2013 17:01:22 GMT -8
Yep. That's why ASPs declined on iPhones and iPads from moving sales of certain accessories into the new group. It was a bit of a pain to reformat on my side. Do you have FQ3 and FQ4 restated 10Qs? I'm not finding them on Edgar. Thanks.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 20, 2013 17:39:49 GMT -8
Yep. That's why ASPs declined on iPhones and iPads from moving sales of certain accessories into the new group. It was a bit of a pain to reformat on my side. Do you have FQ3 and FQ4 restated 10Qs? I'm not finding them on Edgar. Thanks. They're at Apple's IR. They restated back to FQ1 11.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 20, 2013 17:41:06 GMT -8
I don't know it this is related, but someone said all WWDC videos were uploaded to youtube. It is odd, but there's also reports that passwords were reset without authorization on some accounts.
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Post by artman1033 on Jul 20, 2013 17:42:08 GMT -8
Yep. That's why ASPs declined on iPhones and iPads from moving sales of certain accessories into the new group. It was a bit of a pain to reformat on my side. Do you have FQ3 and FQ4 restated 10Qs? I'm not finding them on Edgar. Thanks. HERE on the Apple site?
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Post by artman1033 on Jul 20, 2013 17:45:19 GMT -8
In another world, Mr.Softie was down over $4 (11%) in one day on Friday. Share volume was 248 million compared to an average of 52 million.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jul 20, 2013 17:59:14 GMT -8
In another world, Mr.Softie was down over 4% in one day on Friday. Share volume was 248 million compared to an average of 52 million. That is a lot of damage for MSFT. Looks like 30-31 as price points until October...
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Post by Deleted on Jul 20, 2013 18:06:34 GMT -8
Do you have FQ3 and FQ4 restated 10Qs? I'm not finding them on Edgar. Thanks. They're at Apple's IR. They restated back to FQ1 11. Thanks
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Post by Deleted on Jul 20, 2013 18:21:44 GMT -8
Do you have FQ3 and FQ4 restated 10Qs? I'm not finding them on Edgar. Thanks. They're at Apple's IR. They restated back to FQ1 11. LOL Got all restatements done, and YoY growth is now much closer to your 30%. My FQ3 and FQ4 numbers remain the same, but the YoY compare dropped from 40+% to 20+%.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 20, 2013 18:36:19 GMT -8
In another world, Mr.Softie was down over 4% in one day on Friday. Share volume was 248 million compared to an average of 52 million. It was down 11% on Friday. MSFT earnings going forward will depend heavily on PC replacement cycle, and Win 8.1 should help. If not for enterprise, MSFT would be in a world of hurt. Five years out, who knows? I just don't see them being successful in mobile. RT is probably dead.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 20, 2013 18:37:52 GMT -8
They're at Apple's IR. They restated back to FQ1 11. LOL Got all restatements done, and YoY growth is now much closer to your 30%. My FQ3 and FQ4 numbers remain the same, but the YoY compare dropped from 40+% to 20+%. iTunes/Software/Services is the most reliable source of sales growth for Apple --and the most unappreciated by WS.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 20, 2013 18:45:36 GMT -8
It's as if Microsoft Bob was reincarnated as the entire Windows 8 OS. At least the RT version.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 20, 2013 18:52:42 GMT -8
Here's the placeholder that is overstaying its welcome. It's quite odd.
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