Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 20, 2013 7:40:53 GMT -8
It's pretty clear that this is just a thought exercise. I'm planning at least 4 articles total before my home game numbers. Of course, since my own estimates are unlikely to be say $38B revs, there isn't THAT much different from. the thought exercisez. But not sure why my small sample size of people commenting on the article confuse this for an actual estimate.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Oct 20, 2013 8:49:31 GMT -8
It's pretty clear that this is just a thought exercise. I'm planning at least 4 articles total before my home game numbers. Of course, since my own estimates are unlikely to be say $38B revs, there isn't THAT much different from. the thought exercisez. But not sure why my small sample size of people commenting on the article confuse this for an actual estimate. You are too close to it. Readers move fast looking for hooks. They critiqued what they saw. I saw it was a thought exercise but my thought exercise says 37.5 in revenues. Etc.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 20, 2013 11:33:37 GMT -8
Shrug...it's part of my process, and you COULD see it as a conservative estimate if you wanted to. It's just not as "serious" or "considered" as my home game numbers, if that makes any sense. "Fit to guidance" as one of the first steps to a quarterly estimate is something I haven't gotten tired of yet. Blogger's prerogative and all, for worse or for not better.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 20, 2013 19:54:21 GMT -8
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 21, 2013 12:21:29 GMT -8
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 22, 2013 22:42:09 GMT -8
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 23, 2013 21:04:37 GMT -8
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Post by Ultrarunner on Oct 23, 2013 21:15:29 GMT -8
Yes, some of us care Mav! Unfortunately the your link goes to a page that says "You seem to be lost".
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 23, 2013 21:23:20 GMT -8
Sorry, should work now
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 25, 2013 18:51:09 GMT -8
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Oct 25, 2013 20:17:16 GMT -8
Your numbers look pretty solid. I think revs will be closer to 37.5...but I can't fault your reasoning right down the line. As for guidance....I want Oppy to give us the big kahuna....assuming 850 million shares I want 15 bucks implied guidance...
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 25, 2013 20:22:08 GMT -8
You don't have to agree with or even like my numbers. ;D They are only mine after all.
I don't think I underestimated revs or EPS yet. So maybe I'm continuing to calibrate until I feel I have the right mindset.
Fiscal Q1 can be anywhere from solid to really great. iPhone could be pretty epic, but I won't have any early Q1 estimates just yet. $60B+ is _definitely_ achievable though.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 27, 2013 9:10:44 GMT -8
This much discussion in one quarter? Sad, people.
Not even some iPhone or iPad numbers?
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Post by bloodylongaapl on Oct 27, 2013 9:21:38 GMT -8
I vaguely anticipate about 32-33m iPhone, and about 14m iPad. I expect a fairly solid beat of revs, about 37.5-38B, and I slight beat of GM, maybe 37-37.3%. Otherwise why the warning? Makes no sense.
EPS I leave to others with spreadsheets.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 27, 2013 9:28:13 GMT -8
Nice post. I'm thinking actual results aren't far from top-end guidance.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 27, 2013 12:08:54 GMT -8
I'm higher at $8.73 EPS, using 895M SHS O/S. 37.9B Revs. That's a heck of a beat you're WAG-projecting. ;D You must be in that group looking at around 35M iPhones sold. Question: Why didn't Oppenheimer move up guidance even half a billion, if the rev number is actually very close to $38B? Oh, and about GM Mercel - Daniel Tello asked PED and Munster (yes, Munster but he still counts as an actual WS analyst) reportedly said GM whispers were 37-38% for the holiday quarter. It's a game of telephone but at least 37-38% sounds reasonable.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 27, 2013 12:12:03 GMT -8
And before I forget...WAKE UP CHAD! No numbers for this quarter, chas?
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Post by ericinaustin on Oct 27, 2013 12:52:44 GMT -8
I think with more conservative guidance now we're going to have less opportunity for quarter to quarter surprises. I agree with Greg Thurman that everything now comes down the guidance for the following quarter or two. It may become very rare to see quarter beats that are so surprising that we see a heard response and quarter price appreciation like before. I do however, think we're setting up to see a six or 12 Month beat that no one is expecting.
Like many of you I think that China Mobile deal has already been Inked. Just building up supply for the onslaught of orders. I think the big misjudgment is how many China Mobile customers will become iPhone customers.
One big reason China Mobile has not lost more customers to other iPhones mobile carriers is that I don't think they have phone number portability in China. Before we had that in the United States, phone carrier customers were very sticky. No one wanted to lose their phone number to go to a new carrier. Lots have left CM but many more would have if they could have taken their numbers.
I think the numbers on the China mobile system switching to iPhone will be two to three times higher than current est. and with a 700 million subscriber base that will be huge unpredicted numbers. It will show up over the 6 to 12 months after it goes on sale on the china mobile system. I think the iPhone unit numbers will be blow outs for that next 12to24 months and will perhaps be the last great run in AAPL we may see for awhile. The trick is how to position for this.
Eric in Austin
Ps. If they do have number portability my bad but I still think the switch will be greater than most think just not as great.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 27, 2013 13:10:19 GMT -8
Wait, huh? China Mobile IS still feeling the heat. online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424127887324823804579014400690130942It'd be fun to extrapolate sales if/when China Mobile becomes an iPhone supercarrier, but the only official data point we have is 15M iPhones in March 2012. That much newer 40M+ number is supposedly sourced from Sina Tech but I personally have no idea how reliable that info/source is. China Mobile could be "only" 2-3 AT&Ts and Verizons in terms of demographics, who knows, but that could ALSO be 2-3x either carrier's total installed iPhone base. iPhone is established but it's still not official on China Mobile. That's no small growth opportunity. Things will be absolutely insane the first couple of quarters, and yeah, no one should disagree that the initial sales spike won't be sustainable. It'll still help. ;D
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Post by chasmac on Oct 28, 2013 13:28:08 GMT -8
And before I forget...WAKE UP CHAD! No numbers for this quarter, chas? Mav, nope. Haven't updated my spreadsheet for several quarters now. Was a waste of my time really. Even if you have a good idea where they're going to be, if WS doesn't give it what you think should be a fair valuation then what's the point? Very good numbers btw, nice job!
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 28, 2013 14:33:25 GMT -8
Oh come on man. Well, nice of you to stop by. My guidance prediction wasn't bad, right up until I was off on OpEx by a whole billion.
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Post by mrentropy on Oct 28, 2013 14:43:23 GMT -8
Not bad Mav, just slightly under the real numbers!
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 28, 2013 15:45:28 GMT -8
It's no great achievement to get revs and EPS reasonably close to guidance. iPhone, iPad and Mac are the three big question marks in any upcoming quarter. For fiscal Q4, I was close on iPhone, not that close on Mac, very not that close on iPad.
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