Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 27, 2013 16:57:45 GMT -8
Here's the history of sales growth and ahem, profit for AMZN. Everyone knows about the sales growth so it doesn't add anything to the discussion. My point is that the other components to stock valuation are being ignored, and AMZN fails miserably at most of them.
|
|
|
Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jul 27, 2013 17:13:21 GMT -8
Can anyone else think of another company where sales growth was the primary argument for stock valuation, then collapsed or flat-lined? Chuck e cheese, chipotle and dozens of restaurant stocks... Exodus communications, rambus, gemstar, My portfolio in 2002 generally.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 27, 2013 17:24:20 GMT -8
If I chart Apple's sales growth against Amazon's, Apple kills Amazon until March 2013 (sales growth slows to 18% last Dec., 11% in March and 3% in June. Still, a very impressive looking chart.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 27, 2013 17:38:25 GMT -8
Can anyone else think of another company where sales growth was the primary argument for stock valuation, then collapsed or flat-lined? eMachines Gateway Dell Acer TIE (commercial telephone systems Worldcom
|
|
|
Post by applemuncher on Jul 27, 2013 17:41:57 GMT -8
Can anyone else think of another company where sales growth was the primary argument for stock valuation, then collapsed or flat-lined? I would argue that future earnings, not sales growth, is the primary reason for Amazon's valuation.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Jul 27, 2013 17:48:55 GMT -8
What future earnings? ;D They're even less visible than Apple's future earnings growth. And by "valuation", we really have to talk PPS. Because if we're talking multiple? It won't be making any sense for a while...
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 27, 2013 17:59:27 GMT -8
Can anyone else think of another company where sales growth was the primary argument for stock valuation, then collapsed or flat-lined? I would argue that future earnings, not sales growth, is the primary reason for Amazon's valuation. Yes, that's the bet. But the paucity of data to support all of AMZN's current capitalization is frightening. It's almost a hoax. Where is the analysis to support this, against the threat of anti-trust and another disrupter. Self-fulfillment centers could be the bricks and mortar that breaks Amazon's back, much as showrooms did Circuit City, Future Shop, etc.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 27, 2013 18:01:42 GMT -8
What future earnings? ;D They're even less visible than Apple's future earnings growth. And by "valuation", we really have to talk PPS. Because if we're talking multiple? It won't be making any sense for a while... My point for comparing the two companies is that WS is putting ALL of Amazon's valuation in one bucket: Sales growth (and hope that profit follows). There is nothing else to support it, unlike Apple's metrics which reign supreme.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Jul 27, 2013 18:33:19 GMT -8
Well, not even that. Since Amazon missed this quarter, it's obvious that sales growth is "slowing" vs. analyst expectations.
It's high time for someone to set a price target of $400 or more. It's insane that the average price target is already $330 (per Yahoo Finance)...
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 27, 2013 18:43:21 GMT -8
Well, not even that. Since Amazon missed this quarter, it's obvious that sales growth is "slowing" vs. analyst expectations. It's high time for everyone to set a price target of $250 or less. It's insane that the average price target is already $330 (per Yahoo Finance)... Modifications and highlights are mine.
|
|
|
Post by phoebear611 on Jul 28, 2013 4:04:27 GMT -8
|
|
|
Post by appledoc on Jul 28, 2013 4:50:21 GMT -8
iPhone 5C?
|
|
|
Post by rickag on Jul 28, 2013 5:55:47 GMT -8
|
|
|
Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jul 28, 2013 6:22:14 GMT -8
The author looks vaguely familiar.....
|
|
|
Post by appledoc on Jul 28, 2013 6:32:40 GMT -8
|
|
|
Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jul 28, 2013 6:53:05 GMT -8
Doc, I've got a pain right here and I was wondering..... No, no...I mean...what do you see for price action this week?
|
|
|
Post by redinaustin on Jul 28, 2013 7:11:35 GMT -8
Remind you of a certain phone?
Ihnatko: .@gregpak @glennf I used to dream about owning a device like the Hitch-Hiker's Guide. Fantasy dreams do sometimes come true...
First appeared in 1978 on BBC Radio - WOW
|
|
|
Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jul 28, 2013 7:22:28 GMT -8
After reading Robert's latest analysis I pulled out a push piece from a value investment manager that is involved with some clients I am involved with. This manager is quite large and well known...and increased it stake in AAPL by almost 20% in the most recently reported quarter ( through June 30 holdings). Their argument in increasing the stake in Apple, and their pledge to keep doing so if AAPL stayed below its short term price targets (420-465) is three fold. By the way, these were made on july 15, before the earnings report came out... 1. Their investing discipline told them Apple would aggressively pursue the buyback with available cash. They thought 20 million shares would be retired. They turned out to be conservative, but in a good way... 2. The buyback allows the former dividend "budget" to be reduced and, in their view, probably returned to shareholders through more aggressive increases in the quarterly dividend rate. They love this, as a 2.8 to 3.0 percent yield is right in their strategy wheelhouse. 3. The growing value of the ecosystem. These guys really got this aspect of Apple's future consistently growing revenue stream and value it very highly in their model. As a value manager they are somewhat less concerned with new handsets and more focused on the ironclad balance sheet and effective balance sheet management. In this regard they have become more enamored with AAPL as a long term holding..the hiring of a "cash guru" and the focus on shareholder interests ( better planning, somewhat more transparency) all contributed to this. I can only imagine that the earnings announcement last week reinforced their views. It is interesting to read the priorities of an investor who does not think the imminent product refresh is the end all or be all of whether to own Apple.
|
|
|
Post by appledoc on Jul 28, 2013 7:27:30 GMT -8
Doc, I've got a pain right here and I was wondering..... No, no...I mean...what do you see for price action this week? Over 465 within the next two weeks assuming the bottom is in. And I'm 95% certain the bottom is in. Technically, we're strong. Bull flag forming, above the 50 and 100 day, rising daily MACDh. I'm very encouraged.
|
|
|
Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jul 28, 2013 8:18:35 GMT -8
|
|
|
Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jul 28, 2013 8:24:09 GMT -8
Can anyone else think of another company where sales growth was the primary argument for stock valuation, then collapsed or flat-lined? Chuck e cheese, chipotle and dozens of restaurant stocks... Exodus communications, rambus, gemstar, My portfolio in 2002 generally. JDSU....oh, God.. Stop making me remember these.....
|
|
|
Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jul 28, 2013 8:27:38 GMT -8
Real....or fake? If fake, why? A lot of work here for no purpose..
|
|
|
Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jul 28, 2013 8:30:06 GMT -8
Redler just tweeted:
@reddogt3live: I am still long $aapl. It protected its earnings gap & looks constructive. I will add for cash flow if it can get thru & close above $445ish
Seems a lot of interest in Apple by investors, traders, strategists....
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Jul 28, 2013 8:52:11 GMT -8
The author looks vaguely familiar..... Not bad, but sounds a bit dour, don't you think? Makes a presumption or two that may not necessarily pan out - for example iTunes/software growth that didn't grow as much as a lot of us were thinking (even me!). And I think I'm right about the slight dour-ness, because how else did he miss the sellthrough comparison on iPad, along with the seasonality shift?
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Jul 28, 2013 8:57:00 GMT -8
Red, the value guys are right. Apple's an amazing value stock long-term, just as long as the company strategy keeps working. And Apple has certainly decided to lean towards the "sustainable" approach, particularly if the low-end iPhone will see an unprecedented redesign.
|
|
|
Post by rickag on Jul 28, 2013 9:00:00 GMT -8
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Jul 28, 2013 9:02:50 GMT -8
Net-net, I think Dilger's a very good Apple commentator, though he's always been a bit edgy. (Gruber, not as good as before it seems, though I still follow DF.) Dilger has had his issues but this last article is devastatingly well-sourced and factual.
I've looked at Samsung quarterly/annual reports and run won-to-dollar conversions myself. ;D
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 28, 2013 9:09:03 GMT -8
Chuck e cheese, chipotle and dozens of restaurant stocks... Exodus communications, rambus, gemstar, My portfolio in 2002 generally. JDSU....oh, God.. Stop making me remember these..... I just remembered another one...Krispy Kreme.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 28, 2013 9:13:01 GMT -8
I've been reading, and appreciating Eran since before his motorcycle accident of several years ago. His commentary is unusually insightful and exceedingly well researched.
|
|
|
Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jul 28, 2013 10:01:31 GMT -8
Just a thought....the weekend after any company's earnings report often produces the Wall Street firm's more substantive analysis of the report and the 10-q.
If the Monday morning squawk box chatter reinforces the real impact of the buyback, could get some big boy buyers involved..
|
|