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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Sept 7, 2013 7:38:22 GMT -8
No problemo: The big news is CM will sell iPhones in the holiday quarter. Apple will sell all they can produce between now and December. My 60M iPhone sales number for FQ1 is beginning to look conservative now. Agree. I have a mental lock against forecasting more than 60 million....but when I run reasonable assumptions on what we think we know...it gets there pretty easily.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 7, 2013 8:03:41 GMT -8
No problemo: The big news is CM will sell iPhones in the holiday quarter. Apple will sell all they can produce between now and December. My 60M iPhone sales number for FQ1 is beginning to look conservative now. Agree. I have a mental lock against forecasting more than 60 million....but when I run reasonable assumptions on what we think we know...it gets there pretty easily. Put this is your calculus: Approx. half of all iPhone users surveyed said they were going to buy the new 5s or 5c, immediately.bgr.com/2013/09/06/survey-iphone-5s-5c-upgrade/
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Post by rickag on Sept 7, 2013 8:05:07 GMT -8
Last FQ1 13 Apple sold 47.789 million iPhones. As a believer in the golden ratio, 1.61803399, my prediction for FQ1 14 is 77,324,226.34811 iPhones sold. Curiously enough that is my lucky number.
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Post by capablanca on Sept 7, 2013 8:16:12 GMT -8
Separating Apple from AAPL for the coming week or two here is my wish ...
I'd like to see a series of blockbuster announcements that make it clear that Apple remains the innovation leader and at the same time maintains its relentless focus on making the best products in world history.
I'd like to see AAPL trade in a range of 490-515 for another two or even three weeks. This gives everyone who bought in this range back around the end of '12 or beginning of '13 a chance to gracefully exit. Then we can move up to 550 toward the end of the year with ownership in strong hands.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 7, 2013 8:52:37 GMT -8
No problemo: The big news is CM will sell iPhones in the holiday quarter. Apple will sell all they can produce between now and December. My 60M iPhone sales number for FQ1 is beginning to look conservative now. Agree. I have a mental lock against forecasting more than 60 million....but when I run reasonable assumptions on what we think we know...it gets there pretty easily. This is a really tough one - IF the China Mobile deal (seems more likely by the day!) happens, we might actually have another Shining Moment(tm) (however brief) when Apple is supply-limited. 25%-ish YOY growth is fine and stable esp. for a 47M compare. Dare we project higher? If the production capacity is there I can see initial full-quarter sales numbers out of China Mobile alone that are just crazy high. Maybe only as an initial burst, though, but it could be a doozy.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 7, 2013 8:58:00 GMT -8
Mercel, how's that compare to previous generations, I wonder?
The "funny thing" is 4S for all the hate on Siri is Apple's most successful product in terms of YOY/overall unit growth IMHO (not counting multiplying from a smaller base when iPhone was newer).
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 7, 2013 9:00:51 GMT -8
Last FQ1 13 Apple sold 47.789 million iPhones. As a believer in the golden ratio, 1.61803399, my prediction for FQ1 14 is 77,324,226.34811 iPhones sold. Curiously enough that is my lucky number. Sorry not happening. Unless you mean a one-off quarter with a huge initial demand spike, which is bad logistics because the event is very likely unsustainable over subsequent quarters. Even considering the product logjam situation of 2012-2013, not Tim Cook's style.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 7, 2013 9:10:15 GMT -8
Last FQ1 13 Apple sold 47.789 million iPhones. As a believer in the golden ratio, 1.61803399, my prediction for FQ1 14 is 77,324,226.34811 iPhones sold. Curiously enough that is my lucky number. Well after the last year, I might be able to afford the 0.34811 part of the iPhone!
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Post by rickag on Sept 7, 2013 9:34:09 GMT -8
Last FQ1 13 Apple sold 47.789 million iPhones. As a believer in the golden ratio, 1.61803399, my prediction for FQ1 14 is 77,324,226.34811 iPhones sold. Curiously enough that is my lucky number. Well after the last year, I might be able to afford the 0.34811 part of the iPhone! Well at least someone caught my humor.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 7, 2013 9:38:01 GMT -8
Oh, I was pretty sure you weren't being serious rickag. Never hurts to be safe though. Expectations game, mind you.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 7, 2013 9:49:58 GMT -8
Mercel, how's that compare to previous generations, I wonder? The "funny thing" is 4S for all the hate on Siri is Apple's most successful product in terms of YOY/overall unit growth IMHO (not counting multiplying from a smaller base when iPhone was newer). Not sure. But I know this: 1. Apple sold 143M more iPhones than it did a year ago, so any % differences will be more than made up from additional units in circulation. 2. Apple has sold approx. 380M iPhones since inception (2007). If the survey were to hold up, 46% of that number is a fantastical 175M iPhones. I'm predicting lines at this launch. Apple could easily change-up the seasonal nature of sales by launching bigger iPhones in mid FQ3. Next up, ATH.
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Post by infohunter on Sept 7, 2013 10:03:43 GMT -8
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 7, 2013 10:10:00 GMT -8
Not sure how this is much better than tapping a HugePhone against a Wave 'n Pray terminal. Also, cases and all that (good luck, Otterbox case owners!)
Could just be Apple's way of addressing more universal home automation and other stuff besides wireless payments (though they're certainly hedging their bets). While I never want an e-payment system that doesn't require my specific user interaction, I also don't want to have to look like an idiot and wave it front of something or place it into a scanner for even a second. That's not really convenience. It MUST be preferable to pulling out a credit card. The ideal is to make e-payments as close to checking an e-mail as possible in terms of degree of difficulty, IMHO.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 7, 2013 10:17:25 GMT -8
Mercel, Apple clearly is _able_ to do it (iPads 1-3), but I keep wondering about iOS harvest season. Hopefully Apple is internally motivated to space out at least iPhone a little bit and a BigPhone would be one nice way to go about it.
OTOH, way-too-early rumors suggest Apple's contemplating moving along all flagship iPhone buyers to BigPhones with the next generation. Knowing Apple - who knows? You'd think Jony Ive's ideal iPhone is just one big screen and thin bezel with no visible speaker, camera or home button if he could get away with it.
Oh, and point 2: "Apple has sold approx. 380M iPhones since inception (2007). If the survey were to hold up, 46% of that number is a fantastical 175M iPhones. I'm predicting lines at this launch." is probably a little optimistic. Some people have bought 3+ iPhones, a whole ton more than 2 at least.
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Post by infohunter on Sept 7, 2013 10:17:41 GMT -8
I'm thinking more about the iWatch use were all you have to do to pay is hold your watch up to a reader to pay.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 7, 2013 10:20:37 GMT -8
Readers just seem so supermarket-scanner old school (though I have to deal with them now, of course).
I hope Apple thinks of a better way. You control the means of payment on your terms - eyes on the screen, works from feet to yards with excellent secure connection. In other words, a blending of the Wi-Fi and Bluetooth concepts.
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Post by infohunter on Sept 7, 2013 10:27:19 GMT -8
I would think a reader would be more secure than Wi-Fi or Bluetooth.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 7, 2013 10:30:47 GMT -8
Is it? People e-commerce/buy/sell stocks and options all the time from their cel phone connections, supposedly shared-bandwidth cable internet connections, etc.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 7, 2013 10:42:54 GMT -8
Oh, and point 2: "Apple has sold approx. 380M iPhones since inception (2007). If the survey were to hold up, 46% of that number is a fantastical 175M iPhones. I'm predicting lines at this launch." is probably a little optimistic. Some people have bought 3+ iPhones, a whole ton more than 2 at least. Doesn't matter because the survey queried USERS and my old iPhones are still likely in circulation.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 7, 2013 10:45:26 GMT -8
Not sure how this is much better than tapping a HugePhone against a Wave 'n Pray terminal. Also, cases and all that (good luck, Otterbox case owners!) Could just be Apple's way of addressing more universal home automation and other stuff besides wireless payments (though they're certainly hedging their bets). While I never want an e-payment system that doesn't require my specific user interaction, I also don't want to have to look like an idiot and wave it front of something or place it into a scanner for even a second. That's not really convenience. It MUST be preferable to pulling out a credit card. The ideal is to make e-payments as close to checking an e-mail as possible in terms of degree of difficulty, IMHO. The idea is to replace all the things in your wallet. Driver's license included (why not?). I use iPhone to buy Starbucks daily and it's preferable to a plastic card taking up space in my wallet, which I dearly want to get rid of entirely.
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Post by rickag on Sept 7, 2013 10:54:45 GMT -8
Oh, I was pretty sure you weren't being serious rickag. Never hurts to be safe though. Expectations game, mind you. You are exactly correct about "Never hurts to be safe".
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Post by Deleted on Sept 7, 2013 11:10:28 GMT -8
iMore weighs in on the 5c: A white or black front? WHITE! This is encouraging and yes, it will make a difference (I'm crazy about this sh*t). First, the device. We've seen a bunch of leaks in recent weeks and months suggesting what the iPhone 5C will look like, and as you can see from these images, they're pretty much spot on. The device is essentially the same size as the existing iPhone 5, and all the ones we've seen have a white front.www.imore.com/iphone-5c-dummy-unit
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 7, 2013 11:24:43 GMT -8
Oh, and point 2: "Apple has sold approx. 380M iPhones since inception (2007). If the survey were to hold up, 46% of that number is a fantastical 175M iPhones. I'm predicting lines at this launch." is probably a little optimistic. Some people have bought 3+ iPhones, a whole ton more than 2 at least. Doesn't matter because the survey queried USERS and my old iPhones are still likely in circulation. Good point. Some iPhones are in that giant e-recycling bin in the sky, but a bunch of them (particularly iPhone 4-era, where volumes and build quality took a giant leap forward) are probably still active. About scanners - As a "Gold Card" Starbucks holder myself, I still find those scanners less than ideal. About 5C colors - well, it already comes in colors. Sure, why not polycarbonate white and black like the iPhone 3GS?
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Post by Deleted on Sept 7, 2013 12:03:36 GMT -8
Just to be clear, I think (and hope) the four colors of the 5c will sport a white front. Interestingly, Apple doesn't appear to be offering the 5C is all black (which would deviate from the other colors if it had a black front).
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Sept 7, 2013 12:36:44 GMT -8
I can't see other than a white front.. And wallpaper options open the door anyway
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Post by ericinaustin on Sept 7, 2013 12:41:17 GMT -8
With a scanner, NFC, iwallet , 600,000,000 credit card numbers, and 150 billion in the bank, what's to stop apple from just starting their own credit card? No piece of plastic, just the phone.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 7, 2013 12:43:01 GMT -8
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Post by Mav on Sept 7, 2013 12:44:18 GMT -8
With a scanner, NFC, iwallet , 600,000,000 credit card numbers, and 150 billion in the bank, what's to stop apple from just starting their own credit card? No piece of plastic, just the phone. Let others handle merchant payment processing. No need for Apple to start its own iBank whatsoever. Also, too many countries to deal with. It'd be bad enough with just one (the US)
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Post by Odd-Lot Richard on Sept 7, 2013 13:23:09 GMT -8
…what's to stop apple from just starting their own credit card? No piece of plastic, just the phone. Let others handle merchant payment processing. No need for Apple to start its own iBank whatsoever. Also, too many countries to deal with. It'd be bad enough with just one (the US) You know you'll be arguing for it as soon as they announce it, Mav!
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 7, 2013 13:55:32 GMT -8
Nope. They'll need to make a good case for it.
It's like my blog says - clear-eyed commentary without pretense (or claim of expertise). I try to call it like I see it. Right now, I can't see it and neither can anyone else. There's receiving payments on a massive scale, and then there's being an issuer. Let Amazon play eBank or something first. If anything, _that's_ classic Apple playbook. Learn carefully from the failures of others, then try to get at the basic need on the first try. Is an Amazon, Google, etc. walking down this "card issuer" path?
Google is farthest along the somewhat-related mobile payments path, and it STILL recommends tapping your HugePhone against a payment terminal.
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