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Post by Deleted on Sept 7, 2013 14:34:39 GMT -8
Apple would be much better off trying to become a transaction processor like Visa/MasterCard rather than a full on bank.
Apple partnering with both Visa & MasterCard for a small fraction of their payment fee probably makes the most sense (even 0.1% of iOS user purchasers would likely be a Billion dollar business).
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Post by gtrplyr on Sept 7, 2013 14:45:08 GMT -8
JD, (too tired to quote from the Intraday thread) Sorry to be a Gloomy Gus. Guess I'm just worn out as I approach the one year anniversary of my brilliant "buy the f'n dip" purchase at $655. It's been a long hard trek since then. I'm still totally bullish on Apple, just feeling a bit cynical about AAPL. I mean let's face it...the biggest catalyst since then has been a frickin' tweet. Maybe I was just a year early in my optimism. All signs are good, let's just hope that the market finally wakes up and gives the best company on earth its due. You can't buy a tweet ..... you can buy a iPhone and MILLIONS of new customers will have access to a more affordable one. Forget all of those squiggly lines and Vegas style "Option" plays .... there is real truth in SALES. Apple has already dominated the U.S. Smartphone market ... they have had a hard time with the rest of the world and in particular Asia simply because of the way their system works without subsidies and contracts .... let's hope this new phone comes in at a competitive price point as the demand is and has always been there. The lull in new products is about to end in 72 hrs. Although we may not get everything we want Tuesday I have a feeling there will be multiple announcements through the rest of the year and even a few saved for early next year. Along with that I fully expect to hear of a bigger buyback and possibly a higher dividend. As far as WS is concerned Apple is in "Show Me" mode .... let's hope they do.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 7, 2013 14:46:08 GMT -8
Any predictions of the 5C/5S killer combo leading to massive Q1 iPhone unit shipments need to be tempered by the very likely fall in ASP.
If ASP drops between 10-20% then a ballpark number of 60 million iPhone units would be needed to ensure a better iPhone revenue result than a year ago.
All else being equal (with iPad/iTunes/Accs. growth more than offsetting declining Mac/iPod), at this very early stage a Q1 shipment number between 60-70 million would probably be what I expect for a good quarterly result eclipsing $15.00. Buyback could boost that number handsomely.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 7, 2013 14:55:37 GMT -8
It kind of depends. iPhone 5 isn't regarded as particularly dominant in the iPhone sales mix. And I believe ASP has been affected somewhere between $10-20 from iCloud or iTunes accounting.
Start iPhone 5C at 16GB and add in additional capacities = some ASP stabilizing effect.
iPhone 5S starting at $199-$499 for 16GB-128GB, which actually would bug me a bit, could also be done.
It's way too early to project an iPhone ASP drop of 10-20%. 20% approaches high-end Xiaomi territory.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 7, 2013 15:12:53 GMT -8
So awesome! Behold micro-USB 3.0! Now with 900mA charge-from-computer support! #nowthatsfast #havefunchargingahugephone (found via Gruber)
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Sept 7, 2013 15:22:54 GMT -8
So awesome! Behold micro-USB 3.0! Now with 900mA charge-from-computer support! #nowthatsfast #havefunchargingahugephone (found via Gruber) And they used to laugh at the lightning connector.....oy!
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Sept 7, 2013 15:44:23 GMT -8
The new "silver circle" of the home button/ fingerprint sensor on the 5s is going to become an advertising iconic image. Get ready for it... Man. Even I could do the television commercials for this beauty....
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 7, 2013 16:12:44 GMT -8
You ARE the voice of National, right? ;D
Supposedly the squircle identifier for the home button might disappear.
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Post by rickag on Sept 7, 2013 18:13:03 GMT -8
It kind of depends. iPhone 5 isn't regarded as particularly dominant in the iPhone sales mix. And I believe ASP has been affected somewhere between $10-20 from iCloud or iTunes accounting. Start iPhone 5C at 16GB and add in additional capacities = some ASP stabilizing effect. iPhone 5S starting at $199-$499 for 16GB-128GB, which actually would bug me a bit, could also be done. It's way too early to project an iPhone ASP drop of 10-20%. 20% approaches high-end Xiaomi territory. I agree, remember Apple is selling a boatload of 4s and 4 models. With an increase in total sales close to the 60 million iPhones or slightly higher this should que WS that Apple cares about market share and I believe WS will reward AAPL. I don't expect a googlish P/E of >25, but 15 - 18 would work quite nicely.
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Post by Odd-Lot Richard on Sept 7, 2013 18:14:57 GMT -8
Wow, Mav, that's two jokes today at least that you've deadpanned. You're being awfully serious.
Speaking of Apple-as-bank, does anyone know how Braeburn's holdings held up during the recent climb in bond rates? If most of their holdings are in short term bonds, there shouldn't be much of an effect, but if they're long-term, a 3% rate from 1.6% is not insignificant, is it?
Edit: autocorrect corrected
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 7, 2013 18:59:26 GMT -8
Call it...careful. Remember, it's tougher to convey tone in text, particularly without emoticons. Anyway, I actually _do_ have a thing against Apple using NFC (Wave 'n Pray is not a new "catchphrase" of mine) and/or becoming an iBank/iVisa issuer "just because" it has so many hundreds of millions of credit cards on file (and don't get me wrong, that's a kind of leverage Google would do... things for, and something Apple can really take advantage of). Any number-crunchers in AFB have probably gotten some useful info on Braeburn's capital strategy from the 10-Qs and such. Mercel? ;D
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 7, 2013 19:01:39 GMT -8
Separating Apple from AAPL for the coming week or two here is my wish ... I'd like to see a series of blockbuster announcements that make it clear that Apple remains the innovation leader and at the same time maintains its relentless focus on making the best products in world history. I'd like to see AAPL trade in a range of 490-515 for another two or even three weeks. This gives everyone who bought in this range back around the end of '12 or beginning of '13 a chance to gracefully exit. Then we can move up to 550 toward the end of the year with ownership in strong hands. I like it.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 7, 2013 19:03:18 GMT -8
It is DAMN bizarre, but I do think WS will reward and respect Apple lowering ASPs some as part of its bid to go for share even if it means some hit to margins, profit, even revenue (in terms of slower growth) - just as long as margins either stabilize in the mid-30s OR Oppenheimer communicates about margin guidance more clearly. I'm really dubious about that last part, though. Oppenheimer had practically zero communication of Apple's in-retrospect-quite-intentional margin/product strategy for all of fiscal 2013, at least not until the downtrend was well underway. Even a quick mention of the umbrella for competitors from years ago would've helped.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 7, 2013 19:05:18 GMT -8
Capa, I'm not sure you'll get your 2-3 weeks. Which isn't to say AAPL might not trade with high volatility within the next 1-4 or even 1-6 weeks.
AAPL is too crowded a trade. You'll never have "the best money" in control, and you'll _always_ have EOs messing with things, at least pin closes happen too much to be conincidental. (/jeffi) Luckily we do have a new patron saint-type as a price/confidence backstop.
"Luckily" for me I'm trading a little past those timeframes, with a tiny nod to "safety" via the BCS I'm using for my initial trade (some IV protection).
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Post by rosie on Sept 7, 2013 19:33:28 GMT -8
store.apple.com/us/help/paymentsif you take a look at Apple's cc/financing options it would seem that they have worked to establish options for all. One thing not on the list is the iTunes Visa issued by Barclays, which is a separate card from their interest free card for Apple purchases. The iTunes reward card gives iTunes points for purchases. 2500 pts=a $25 iTunes gift card.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 7, 2013 19:47:00 GMT -8
Can anyone point me to solid evidence of the upcoming naming conventions, which so far have been known as "5C" & "5S"?
So far all we have seen a dodgy photos of packaging, which to me fail the sniff test when you look at the home screen displayed on the iPhone on the box art. Have a look at yesterday's leaked images of the supposed iPhone 5S packaging. Look at the image of the iPhone (the one that shows a silver ring around the home button). Although the home screen on the phone has iOS 7 style app icons, there is a complete lack of iOS 7 background layers. Compare that image to any of the current iPhone 4/4S/5 box art. It could be the actual box, but Apple would be taking a rather different design approach.
I only mention it as its possible the numbering system disappears from new iPhones this week. Just my opinion, but I think iPhone C & iPhone S makes a lot more sense, especially if an update for each variety is going to happen each year. Also makes for multiple screen sizes.
Fine to keep the iPhone 5 around for one more year as the ugly middle child, until it's replaced in its price point next year by either a lower priced S model or higher priced C model.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 7, 2013 20:11:32 GMT -8
It's possible for Apple to do that, but hey, iPhone numbering has "history" - since "4" connected to "3GS" as the 4th generation, even though it was more like the third new design, and - well, whatever. iPhone 6 will be the, uh, 8th generation...fifth new design...heck, just go with it. ;D It makes enough sense. As does iPhone S/iPhone C naming conventions going forward either by next year, or after iPhone 9S or so.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Sept 7, 2013 21:32:23 GMT -8
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Post by Deleted on Sept 7, 2013 23:26:59 GMT -8
No problemo: The big news is CM will sell iPhones in the holiday quarter. Apple will sell all they can produce between now and December. My 60M iPhone sales number for FQ1 is beginning to look conservative now. Agree. I have a mental lock against forecasting more than 60 million....but when I run reasonable assumptions on what we think we know...it gets there pretty easily. In a recent post I stated pretty much the same thing. While my current estimate is 61 Million, I'm favoring 65 Million (because the rumors are starting to look real). Tuesday is going to be so interesting, I almost wish I had bigger balls (my Friday purchase of Sept Call Spreads would been on a higher Strike and in larger quantity). Unfortunately, the past 12 months has blunted my natural optimism and risk tolerance (belatedly? to early?).
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Post by Deleted on Sept 7, 2013 23:40:08 GMT -8
Agree. I have a mental lock against forecasting more than 60 million....but when I run reasonable assumptions on what we think we know...it gets there pretty easily. Put this is your calculus: Approx. half of all iPhone users surveyed said they were going to buy the new 5s or 5c, immediately.bgr.com/2013/09/06/survey-iphone-5s-5c-upgrade/Depending how representative the 4000 sample was/is, that could mean 100+ Million iPhones in the December quarter. There is no way in hell I am going to plan on that.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 7, 2013 23:41:52 GMT -8
Last FQ1 13 Apple sold 47.789 million iPhones. As a believer in the golden ratio, 1.61803399, my prediction for FQ1 14 is 77,324,226.34811 iPhones sold. Curiously enough that is my lucky number. Explain your golden ratio.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 7, 2013 23:50:26 GMT -8
Last FQ1 13 Apple sold 47.789 million iPhones. As a believer in the golden ratio, 1.61803399, my prediction for FQ1 14 is 77,324,226.34811 iPhones sold. Curiously enough that is my lucky number. Sorry not happening. Unless you mean a one-off quarter with a huge initial demand spike, which is bad logistics because the event is very likely unsustainable over subsequent quarters. Even considering the product logjam situation of 2012-2013, not Tim Cook's style. Apple would not build the production capacity to satisfy "one-off quarter" demand. That would be extremely inefficient application of capital. Much better to satisfy such demand over a 6 month period. In telephone discussions (and I think posts here) I stated that CM most likely would not come on line until mid to late January, allowing initial demand surge to subside a bit before taking on a new market the size of DoCoMo and/or CM. I still feel that way, which is one reason why I think December demand surge will extend into the June quarter.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 7, 2013 23:59:58 GMT -8
I would think a reader would be more secure than Wi-Fi or Bluetooth. The media isn't important at all. It's the encryption algorithms. Apple's 256 bit iMessage is unbreakable by nearly all government agencies (requires the computing power of an NSA a couple days to do it). The expense makes breaking Apple's encryption economically impossible, especially when you consider that iCloud Keychain passwords used are unknown to the user.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 8, 2013 0:33:52 GMT -8
Wow, Mav, that's two jokes today at least that you've deadpanned. You're being awfully serious. Speaking of Apple-as-bank, does anyone know how Braeburn's holdings held up during the recent climb in bond rates? If most of their holdings are in short term bonds, there shouldn't be much of an effect, but if they're long-term, a 3% rate from 1.6% is not insignificant, is it You have impact from short term vs long term bonds reversed. Short term instruments respond much more quickly to changes in rates than do long term instrument. If you'll notice, when Apple lends its short term, when Apple borrows its long term. This is THE strategy to use in a rising interest rate market.
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Post by rob_london on Sept 8, 2013 2:35:12 GMT -8
I've seen this before but for those who haven't, a clip of a very young...and nervous... Steve Jobs, on the occasion of his first TV appearance: linked to via The Loop: www.loopinsight.com
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Post by leonb on Sept 8, 2013 6:01:36 GMT -8
Wow, Mav, that's two jokes today at least that you've deadpanned. You're being awfully serious. Speaking of Apple-as-bank, does anyone know how Braeburn's holdings held up during the recent climb in bond rates? If most of their holdings are in short term bonds, there shouldn't be much of an effect, but if they're long-term, a 3% rate from 1.6% is not insignificant, is it You have impact from short term vs long term bonds reversed. Short term instruments respond much more quickly to changes in rates than do long term instrument. Wrong. The duration (interest rate sensitivity) is higher for longer dated bonds. Fortunately for our resident analyst's ego, he has me on ignore.
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Post by moltenfire on Sept 8, 2013 6:16:00 GMT -8
President Obama to lay out Syria argument in Sept. 10 speech. IMO, that will move the market more that day than out iPhone launch.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Sept 8, 2013 7:02:11 GMT -8
You have impact from short term vs long term bonds reversed. Short term instruments respond much more quickly to changes in rates than do long term instrument. Wrong. The duration (interest rate sensitivity) is higher for longer dated bonds. Fortunately for our resident analyst's ego, he has me on ignore. I'm goint to quote you and make sure your correct statement is seen. For HOLDERS of fixed income securities a move upward in interest rates will more adversely impact the price of securities with longer dated maturities. Thus, a mutual fund with a longer duration suffered more this past June than did a short term fund.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Sept 8, 2013 7:04:31 GMT -8
Last FQ1 13 Apple sold 47.789 million iPhones. As a believer in the golden ratio, 1.61803399, my prediction for FQ1 14 is 77,324,226.34811 iPhones sold. Curiously enough that is my lucky number. Explain your golden ratio. The famous golden ratio........ en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golden_Rule_%28Mathematics%29
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Post by rickag on Sept 8, 2013 7:07:41 GMT -8
Last FQ1 13 Apple sold 47.789 million iPhones. As a believer in the golden ratio, 1.61803399, my prediction for FQ1 14 is 77,324,226.34811 iPhones sold. Curiously enough that is my lucky number. Explain your golden ratio. It was meant as humor.
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