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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 20, 2013 15:40:45 GMT -8
The bar is open! Hey, Bud... Where's my cookie?
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Post by Deleted on Sept 20, 2013 15:51:58 GMT -8
End of trading was fugly. Futures are fugly. Inventory reports are fugly. Rumors are fugly.
So what's new?
Results trump everything. I'm excited (positively) as hell about the prospects for Monday. I even called my ex to go out and celebrate the future. She can't make it.
Holding OCT Week 1 $460/$465 BCSs that I added to today.
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Post by phoebear611 on Sept 20, 2013 16:58:11 GMT -8
I re-posted this here from the last entry to the Intra-day Thread:
Hey folks - FWIW this is what I think happened this afternoon - especially at the close. There was an S&P rebalancing today. It was announced in passing on your most hated station CNBC. I didn't hear it but a friend mentioned to me that someone on CNBC (she didn't know who it was) said that AAPL's shares had been reduced by 3% and so the funds needed to make their adjustments as well. The S&P is an index that is computed by weighted average market capitalization. The market capitalization number fluctuates (obviously) as the underlying share prices and outstanding share numbers change. The net effect this had on shares of AAPL was that the S&P funds needed to lighten up. My friend said the person interviewed said "there would be fireworks near the bell with AAPL." Unfortunately, I did not see it. Yes, I do watch CNBC - you just need to separate the wheat from the chaff. It would have helped had I heard these comments. At a minimum I would have shared them on the Board. Hope this clarifies what may have happened.
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Post by mcharliem on Sept 20, 2013 16:58:44 GMT -8
If anyone's taking votes on sales numbers for Monday morning, I'm going to go out on a limb and say there's no announcement at all. There has to reach a point where they don't want to announce opening weekend numbers every single launch and this year seems as good as any to start a new trend. I'm guessing the market wouldn't like it, but the stock would get past it.
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Post by phoebear611 on Sept 20, 2013 17:08:30 GMT -8
Bloomberg article titled: Apple's New iPhones Poised for Record as China Joins Debut My favorite excerpt: "In New York, customers lined up around the block to get into Appleās flagship Fifth Avenue store, while in Munich about 2,000 gathered to buy the new iPhone 5s and 5c, and in London the waiting crowd stretched about a mile."
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 20, 2013 17:20:38 GMT -8
For me the bigger question on this launch is how many 5c units apple will able to be counted as sold by the end of the weekend. Be all accounts the 5c is widely available everywhere, and every single unit Apple has shipped to carriers and other retailers is counted as sold, correct? Remember outside the US Apple has very little retail presence and most phones are sold through 3rd party retailers. Look especially at Japan, where you can't even buy the iPhone from apples own online store. Is it possible the 5c could represent several million units "sold" this weekend (even though most are sitting on retailer shelves)? Channel fill is sell-in IIRC (accountant types in the audience?), so yes - though there's no way a company like Apple will ever get too close to the border on stuffing the channel.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 20, 2013 17:21:50 GMT -8
I re-posted this here from the last entry to the Intra-day Thread: Hey folks - FWIW this is what I think happened this afternoon - especially at the close. There was an S&P rebalancing today. It was announced in passing on your most hated station CNBC. I didn't hear it but a friend mentioned to me that someone on CNBC (she didn't know who it was) said that AAPL's shares had been reduced by 3% and so the funds needed to make their adjustments as well. The S&P is an index that is computed by weighted average market capitalization. The market capitalization number fluctuates (obviously) as the underlying share prices and outstanding share numbers change. The net effect this had on shares of AAPL was that the S&P funds needed to lighten up. My friend said the person interviewed said "there would be fireworks near the bell with AAPL." Unfortunately, I did not see it. Yes, I do watch CNBC - you just need to separate the wheat from the chaff. It would have helped had I heard these comments. At a minimum I would have shared them on the Board. Hope this clarifies what may have happened. Whoa. Thanks for the tip! So it's basically this? money.msn.com/business-news/article.aspx?feed=OBR&Date=20130920&ID=16882506&topic=TOPIC_IPO&isub=2
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icam
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Post by icam on Sept 20, 2013 17:40:30 GMT -8
Inventory was not a major issue everywhere today. I posted this earlier on the intraday, but am reposting because I think it's a salient data point, and as I believe the inventory undersupply story may be getting blown out of proportion by the catastrophe prone. Here's my post:
Went to Mall of America Apple store to do some recon on how busy they were at 2 pm CST. The store was full of people. The Que for iPhones was only 5 deep when I got there.
I wasn't going to upgrade from my iPhone 4 for another month or so, until after the hype died down. For kicks I got in line and asked about the phone I was intending to buy - 5S/Verizon/32/Space Gray. An hour later I'm walking out with my new iPhone 5S 32 gig Space Gray Verizon + $30 chord + Apple Care + traded in my iPhone4 for $81). I did my part to maintain Apples margins.
The salesperson working with me said they'd been working since 7 a.m. and probably averaged 4 iPhone buying customers per hour (some buy multiple phones). To quote "It's been busy"...
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icam
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Post by icam on Sept 20, 2013 17:42:48 GMT -8
I re-posted this here from the last entry to the Intra-day Thread: Hey folks - FWIW this is what I think happened this afternoon - especially at the close. There was an S&P rebalancing today. It was announced in passing on your most hated station CNBC. I didn't hear it but a friend mentioned to me that someone on CNBC (she didn't know who it was) said that AAPL's shares had been reduced by 3% and so the funds needed to make their adjustments as well. The S&P is an index that is computed by weighted average market capitalization. The market capitalization number fluctuates (obviously) as the underlying share prices and outstanding share numbers change. The net effect this had on shares of AAPL was that the S&P funds needed to lighten up. My friend said the person interviewed said "there would be fireworks near the bell with AAPL." Unfortunately, I did not see it. Yes, I do watch CNBC - you just need to separate the wheat from the chaff. It would have helped had I heard these comments. At a minimum I would have shared them on the Board. Hope this clarifies what may have happened. Excellent information.....Thanks Phoebes! Is there any way a person can know about this stuff before it happens?
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Post by redinaustin on Sept 20, 2013 17:44:53 GMT -8
Anyone want to take a stab at how many points of sale there were today and how many units were needed to have "adequate supply" of all models, carriers, colors, and capacities?
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Post by phoebear611 on Sept 20, 2013 18:04:07 GMT -8
I re-posted this here from the last entry to the Intra-day Thread: Hey folks - FWIW this is what I think happened this afternoon - especially at the close. There was an S&P rebalancing today. It was announced in passing on your most hated station CNBC. I didn't hear it but a friend mentioned to me that someone on CNBC (she didn't know who it was) said that AAPL's shares had been reduced by 3% and so the funds needed to make their adjustments as well. The S&P is an index that is computed by weighted average market capitalization. The market capitalization number fluctuates (obviously) as the underlying share prices and outstanding share numbers change. The net effect this had on shares of AAPL was that the S&P funds needed to lighten up. My friend said the person interviewed said "there would be fireworks near the bell with AAPL." Unfortunately, I did not see it. Yes, I do watch CNBC - you just need to separate the wheat from the chaff. It would have helped had I heard these comments. At a minimum I would have shared them on the Board. Hope this clarifies what may have happened. Excellent information.....Thanks Phoebes! Is there any way a person can know about this stuff before it happens? Tends to be on a Friday toward the end of a quarter but I will ask a friend who currently works on the trading floor if and when we can have notice on this. Remember though - it doesn't always affect AAPL shares but this time it did.
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Post by nathanstevens on Sept 20, 2013 18:38:42 GMT -8
This may seem impossible to anyone that frequents this board, but there were customers at the apple store today that didn't know the new phones were available today.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 20, 2013 18:56:44 GMT -8
From intraday Really? Well for the quarter, channel fill is fair game. But doubt there'll be much channel inventory for the 5S. For me the bigger question on this launch is how many 5c units apple will able to be counted as sold by the end of the weekend. Be all accounts the 5c is widely available everywhere, and every single unit Apple has shipped to carriers and other retailers is counted as sold, correct? Remember outside the US Apple has very little retail presence and most phones are sold through 3rd party retailers. Look especially at Japan, where you can't even buy the iPhone from apples own online store. Is it possible the 5c could represent several million units "sold" this weekend (even though most are sitting on retailer shelves)? Channel fill counts (excluding inventory at Apple, of course). It's probably stretching things to include these as sales, despite the fact Samsung gets away with far more.
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Post by phoebear611 on Sept 20, 2013 18:59:23 GMT -8
This may seem impossible to anyone that frequents this board, but there were customers at the apple store today that didn't know the new phones were available today. Where were you? Madagascar !!!
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Post by phoebear611 on Sept 20, 2013 19:04:55 GMT -8
Did anyone catch this headline around 6:00 pm or so: AT&T to post record 3rd-qtr smartphone salesĆ¢ā¬āreport
Anything to extrapolate re iPhones?
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Post by Deleted on Sept 20, 2013 19:17:13 GMT -8
I re-posted this here from the last entry to the Intra-day Thread: Hey folks - FWIW this is what I think happened this afternoon - especially at the close. There was an S&P rebalancing today. It was announced in passing on your most hated station CNBC. I didn't hear it but a friend mentioned to me that someone on CNBC (she didn't know who it was) said that AAPL's shares had been reduced by 3% and so the funds needed to make their adjustments as well. The S&P is an index that is computed by weighted average market capitalization. The market capitalization number fluctuates (obviously) as the underlying share prices and outstanding share numbers change. The net effect this had on shares of AAPL was that the S&P funds needed to lighten up. My friend said the person interviewed said "there would be fireworks near the bell with AAPL." Unfortunately, I did not see it. Yes, I do watch CNBC - you just need to separate the wheat from the chaff. It would have helped had I heard these comments. At a minimum I would have shared them on the Board. Hope this clarifies what may have happened. I should modify my post preceding yours, but I don't know how to express my Monday confidence any clearer. BTW, I responded to your intraday post thusly: Not sure yet what I'm going to do, but this weekend I'm going to relax and enjoy life like I haven't in a while.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 20, 2013 19:28:48 GMT -8
For me the bigger question on this launch is how many 5c units apple will able to be counted as sold by the end of the weekend. Be all accounts the 5c is widely available everywhere, and every single unit Apple has shipped to carriers and other retailers is counted as sold, correct? Remember outside the US Apple has very little retail presence and most phones are sold through 3rd party retailers. Look especially at Japan, where you can't even buy the iPhone from apples own online store. Is it possible the 5c could represent several million units "sold" this weekend (even though most are sitting on retailer shelves)? Channel fill is sell-in IIRC (accountant types in the audience?), so yes - though there's no way a company like Apple will ever get too close to the border on stuffing the channel. Apple makes very clear, during its conference calls, how it deals with channel inventory, giving a number then describing it as being within Apple's target of 4 - 6 weeks supply. A while back I did a study of unit sales to prior quarter ending inventory. It fell in a range of 2.5 to 3.5 weeks inventory, but the result was skewed because it included Apple inventory. So 4 - 6 weeks is probably pretty accurate. The description of ending inventory rarely deviates, even during the OCT (product launch changes) conference call. So I'm thinking Apple isn't thinking December quarter channel inventory, until the end of the quarter.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 20, 2013 19:33:33 GMT -8
Excellent information.....Thanks Phoebes! Is there any way a person can know about this stuff before it happens? Tends to be on a Friday toward the end of a quarter but I will ask a friend who currently works on the trading floor if and when we can have notice on this. Remember though - it doesn't always affect AAPL shares but this time it did. The last day of the quarter is always the last Saturday of the month. The market requires 72 hours to settle accounts. Nobody is going to test the efficiency of the system, so in my opinion, we should look for this kind of action on the next to last Friday of the quarter.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 20, 2013 19:47:10 GMT -8
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Post by Deleted on Sept 20, 2013 19:53:44 GMT -8
I re-posted this here from the last entry to the Intra-day Thread: Hey folks - FWIW this is what I think happened this afternoon - especially at the close. There was an S&P rebalancing today. It was announced in passing on your most hated station CNBC. I didn't hear it but a friend mentioned to me that someone on CNBC (she didn't know who it was) said that AAPL's shares had been reduced by 3% and so the funds needed to make their adjustments as well. The S&P is an index that is computed by weighted average market capitalization. The market capitalization number fluctuates (obviously) as the underlying share prices and outstanding share numbers change. The net effect this had on shares of AAPL was that the S&P funds needed to lighten up. My friend said the person interviewed said "there would be fireworks near the bell with AAPL." Unfortunately, I did not see it. Yes, I do watch CNBC - you just need to separate the wheat from the chaff. It would have helped had I heard these comments. At a minimum I would have shared them on the Board. Hope this clarifies what may have happened. Whoa. Thanks for the tip! So it's basically this? money.msn.com/business-news/article.aspx?feed=OBR&Date=20130920&ID=16882506&topic=TOPIC_IPO&isub=2With tracking concluding at 5:45 PM EST, AAPL was #2 on the Buying on Weakness list. Rebalancing activity occurred between 4:00 PM EST and 5:30 PM EST. Look at the volumes back on September 10 & 11. The severity of the post announcement selloff seemed overly rich to me at the time. I'm wondering if some firms jumped the gun and sold off in anticipation of the rebalancing (they got much better pricing then than they did today).
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 20, 2013 19:58:06 GMT -8
I re-posted this here from the last entry to the Intra-day Thread: Hey folks - FWIW this is what I think happened this afternoon - especially at the close. There was an S&P rebalancing today. It was announced in passing on your most hated station CNBC. I didn't hear it but a friend mentioned to me that someone on CNBC (she didn't know who it was) said that AAPL's shares had been reduced by 3% and so the funds needed to make their adjustments as well. The S&P is an index that is computed by weighted average market capitalization. The market capitalization number fluctuates (obviously) as the underlying share prices and outstanding share numbers change. The net effect this had on shares of AAPL was that the S&P funds needed to lighten up. My friend said the person interviewed said "there would be fireworks near the bell with AAPL." Unfortunately, I did not see it. Yes, I do watch CNBC - you just need to separate the wheat from the chaff. It would have helped had I heard these comments. At a minimum I would have shared them on the Board. Hope this clarifies what may have happened. Phoebes, thank you so much for posting this! I haven't yet read today's Intraday and just got the skinny (way skinnier than this skinny ^^, LOL!) from Avi's group, and I was coming here to ask if this was discussed in Intraday. THANK YOU!!!
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Post by nagrani on Sept 20, 2013 20:16:57 GMT -8
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 20, 2013 21:13:57 GMT -8
Will give it a read. Thanks for the link nagrani.
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 20, 2013 21:15:25 GMT -8
This fucking market makes me ill. If we sell 5 million because of supply we will get hammered on Monday ... Even though apple may sell another 5 million the next week or two .... No patience. They have to sell everything in the first weekend or we are doomed ..... Stupid fucking "investors". Most of these traders should be taken out into a back alley to have the shit kicked out of them .... And why is that? Would an illiquid, low volume stock provide a greater benefit to investors? RE: patience and lack thereof... I don't think a patient person particularly cares about short-term fluctuations. Nor should long-term investors.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 20, 2013 21:27:11 GMT -8
From intraday Really? Well for the quarter, channel fill is fair game. But doubt there'll be much channel inventory for the 5S. Channel fill counts (excluding inventory at Apple, of course). It's probably stretching things to include these as sales, despite the fact Samsung gets away with far more. Won't matter, the 5c can pick up the slack. Unlike last year, there was ZERO channel fill of the 5c. All iPhone 5s models in USA are showing deliveries in October. Demand is, in Tim's words, "off the charts." Rock on.
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Post by Gridlock on Sept 20, 2013 21:28:52 GMT -8
Phoebes --
For the record, the cnbc report you referred to was from Bob Pisani. I made note of it in the a.m., kept my powder dry, and as the stock tanked into the close, I crossed my fingers and bought some Jan 15 450 calls. I'll have to see how I feel by Monday as to whether it's a trade or a hold. I like Pisani since he seems to know what he's talking about, and isn't trying to sell me anything.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 20, 2013 21:31:59 GMT -8
This fucking market makes me ill. If we sell 5 million because of supply we will get hammered on Monday ... Even though apple may sell another 5 million the next week or two .... No patience. They have to sell everything in the first weekend or we are doomed ..... Stupid fucking "investors". Most of these traders should be taken out into a back alley to have the shit kicked out of them .... And why is that? Would an illiquid, low volume stock provide a greater benefit to investors? RE: patience and lack thereof... I don't think a patient person particularly cares about short-term fluctuations. Nor should long-term investors. Is there a correlation between trading levels and valuation based on fundamentals vs. something else? Why is GOOG's volume so much less or, for that matter, AMZN's, yet those two stocks have champion P/E ratios, even other worldly. Seriously, something is F'd up about Apple's valuation and I'm stumped.
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Post by joel90069 on Sept 20, 2013 21:37:00 GMT -8
From intraday Really? Well for the quarter, channel fill is fair game. But doubt there'll be much channel inventory for the 5S. Won't matter, the 5c can pick up the slack. Unlike last year, there was ZERO channel fill of the 5c. All iPhone 5s models in USA are showing deliveries in October. Demand is, in Tim's words, "off the charts." Rock on. I think that just applies to online orders. I went to two Apple stores in LA that were each sold out of the 5S by 4 pm. They both said they would be getting new deliveries every day.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 20, 2013 21:43:09 GMT -8
One disappointment today was confirmation that Samsung was indeed the Fab for the A7.
However some good news is that the A7 is made using 28nm technology, which means:
- supply issues shouldn't be a big problem seeing as Samsung was already using 28nm for other chips. - 28nm fabrication is a much easier target for TSMC, so it wouldn't be a big surprise to see them become a A7 supplier within this cycle, so Samsung can be removed potentially soon.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 20, 2013 21:57:47 GMT -8
Well into day 2 of iPhone launch in Asia/Australia - seeing reports of more lines today.
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