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Post by appledoc on Oct 5, 2013 12:09:09 GMT -8
I'm humored by those who believe the weeklies aren't having a negative impact on this stock. Pinning works both ways. But nobody was crying when we were riding our way to 700.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 5, 2013 12:24:46 GMT -8
Well, duh. I suspect most retail market participants like ourselves tend to be net longs. ;D AAPL's run to 700 was "deserved" but technically "unsustainable" and sentiment-wise, "not supportable" in retrospect. The ground is a little firmer this year.
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Post by appledoc on Oct 5, 2013 12:51:33 GMT -8
Well, duh. I suspect most retail market participants like ourselves tend to be net longs. ;D AAPL's run to 700 was "deserved" but technically "unsustainable" and sentiment-wise, "not supportable" in retrospect. The ground is a little firmer this year. 700 was an overshoot. Don't get me wrong, AAPL is undervalued here. But we shouldn't continue to scream that AAPL is undervalued while still sitting under 700. There's a fair value somewhere between here and 700.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 5, 2013 12:57:13 GMT -8
Like anything - opinion. Fair value is a 20 multiple, easy. Won't never happen even as GOOG's is 25.
I'll deal somehow.
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Post by gtrplyr on Oct 5, 2013 13:28:24 GMT -8
Well, duh. I suspect most retail market participants like ourselves tend to be net longs. ;D AAPL's run to 700 was "deserved" but technically "unsustainable" and sentiment-wise, "not supportable" in retrospect. The ground is a little firmer this year. 700 was an overshoot. Don't get me wrong, AAPL is undervalued here. But we shouldn't continue to scream that AAPL is undervalued while still sitting under 700. There's a fair value somewhere between here and 700. Ok ... $699.50 ;D
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Post by appledoc on Oct 5, 2013 13:29:37 GMT -8
Like anything - opinion. Fair value is a 20 multiple, easy. Won't never happen even as GOOG's is 25. I'll deal somehow. How does a company who will see EPS decline in FY13 deserve a 20 multiple, easy? If you're argument is that the market should be, and is, forward thinking, then AAPL never deserved 700 in the first place. From a consumer standpoint, the company is the best it's ever been. No other consumer tech producer comes close. But they have ground to regain elsewhere.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 5, 2013 13:43:22 GMT -8
I did say won't never happen, did I not?
Not sure where you're going with forward looking. All companies will have a long arc of slowing growth assuming they're in it for the long haul. You can never grow as quickly as you can in the earlier boom times. So GOOG's multiple should also fall below 25 over time. And FB and TSLA and NFLX and AMZN years or decades from now, by that theory.
No one can seriously argue valuation asymmetry exists and sentiment is down on AAPL. Reasonable people can disagree about where a sustainable valuation for AAPL is. I think AAPL can handle around a 15 multiple to start if it proves itself through some new growth and product. Note I said what I think will happen vs. what I think it deserves.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 5, 2013 13:44:50 GMT -8
There are a multiple reasons for AAPL trading where it does. Clearly, institutions are lightweight on it. I'm not sure why, but it probably explains a big part of things. Learn the reasons why institutions have less faith in Apple than they do in Microsoft and Google and we might get somewhere. I stated my thinking on why the institutions were avoiding AAPL, and was asked "what universe I was from". Do YoY compares of each quarter, going back 5 years, and the answer to your question leaps out of the page. Make sure your compares are Income Statement line items, top to bottom. I'll say it again: F2013 was a flop. Institutions saw it coming, and when the second quarter (in a row) confirmed it, they bailed. The evidence is in the YoY compares, the timing of the great fall (in conjunction with those YoY compares), the drop in institutional ownership from ~71% to ~61%, lower daily average trading volume, and analysts like Doug Kass (who we all, including myself, said was an idiot) that called it. CNBC talked about it, but in the shallowest terms, giving no specifics (aka worthless commentary). Sorry, I'm not buying it. You've cherry picked my post, which I'll remind you included a FLAT (not FLOP) fiscal year. Since when is it required for a company to sustain 45% margins to avoid the outhouse? Certainly not lesser stocks with sales AND profit issues. I'll buy your argument to explain a 10-15% stock price decline, but not $705 to $500, much less $400. Bottom line for me is that the market is not efficient. Sentiment and spin-the-wheel "investing" has more to do with AAPL's price action than from Apple reporting FY 2013 gross margins in line with historical results.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 5, 2013 13:46:53 GMT -8
Poor margin communication was part of the problem too.
But man, does it ever look like things are gonna change in '14. Should be fun.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 5, 2013 14:33:21 GMT -8
Poor margin communication was part of the problem too. But man, does it ever look like things are gonna change in '14. Should be fun. Well, we DID get new guidance. But yeah, I'm convinced Apple is determined to boost margins during FY 2014. We should get a taste of that with guidance in October. The iPhone 5 build issues didn't help. The 5c (and the space gray and gold 5s) should enable a return to 39-40% GM, at least.
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Post by rickag on Oct 5, 2013 14:46:11 GMT -8
Data bites dogma: Apple's iOS ate up Android, Blackberry U.S. market share losses this summerSIAP Another fine work by Daniel Eran Dilger. Key quotes I found interesting, (my bold) I bet he does, the jerk. I say, Apple please put the screws to this snake in the grass. Be careful Samsung or your BFF will put a knife squarely in your back now that they own Motorola. Apple is giving the big finger to Google and justifiably so. Apple is hurting Google where it hurts the most, ads. Especially, ads integrated within the OS. SIRI is also moves Apple further away from Google. Yes, Google's P/E is higher than Apple's, ... for how long. AAPL deserves a higher P/E than currently held, but Google doesn't deserve its lofty P/E. Amazon, who the hell knows, I am waiting for their P/E to reach infinity very soon. I have been reading DED for a long time, but in the past considered him somewhat biased and lacking clear objectivity. But in the last several months to a year he is hitting relevant points and backing it up with well researched numbers.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 5, 2013 14:46:26 GMT -8
Well, we DID get new guidance. But yeah, I'm convinced Apple is determined to boost margins during FY 2014. We should get a taste of that with guidance in October. The iPhone 5 build issues didn't help. The 5c (and the space gray and gold 5s) should enable a return to 39-40% GM, at least. I really do think Tim and Co. were surprised by iPhone 5's semi-tepid growth. On the bright side, they may be surprised by how popular the 5S seems to be. S generation effect, I tell you.
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Post by appledoc on Oct 5, 2013 15:28:02 GMT -8
I did say won't never happen, did I not? You did. But what you think will happen and what you think should happen are clearly two different things.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 5, 2013 16:07:38 GMT -8
The ground is a little firmer this year. The ground going forward is a lot firmer. Those concerned about AAPL should just let this play out, and ignore the daily ups and downs.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 5, 2013 16:16:46 GMT -8
You've cherry picked my post, which I'll remind you included a FLAT (not FLOP) fiscal year. Since when is it required for a company to sustain 45% margins to avoid the outhouse? I'll buy your argument to explain a 10-15% stock price decline, but not $705 to $500, much less $400. An 11+% drop in Net Income is not FLAT. AAPL continued to drop because investors were confused by management's new Guidance format, making it appear that Apple was seriously missing WS consensus, and the fact that Net Income decline was accelerating. You don't have to believe me, the comparisons are a different matter. Do the YoY comparison.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 5, 2013 16:39:56 GMT -8
6% drop in Net Income for the 4 quarters through June '13 quarter YOY. And Apple increased sales 14% for the same period. Calling it flat is more than fair.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 5, 2013 16:47:55 GMT -8
I did say won't never happen, did I not? You did. But what you think will happen and what you think should happen are clearly two different things. Of course. I'll defend my 20 multiple thesis at a more appropriate time.
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Post by nagrani on Oct 5, 2013 16:54:26 GMT -8
Cuckoo
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Post by appledoc on Oct 5, 2013 17:09:04 GMT -8
You did. But what you think will happen and what you think should happen are clearly two different things. Of course. I'll defend my 20 multiple thesis at a more appropriate time. I guess I'm not understanding then. AAPL doesn't deserve a 20 multiple coming off a year that saw sizable yearly EPS decline.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 5, 2013 17:21:32 GMT -8
emphasis mineCan't agree more. I especially enjoyed this passage, not because I'm an Apple fanboy, but because I'm an AAPL investor. I'm searching for the study now, but can't find it. That study did a comparative analysis of map search results and found Apple Maps more accurate, if ever so slight, than Google Maps. I do NOT think we can assume that Google Maps are superior to Apple Maps any longer, regardless of the head start Google has in maps. We've all seen what happens when Apple focuses on a segment as a late comer. I think that is happening now in maps and, by extension, in ads. It is very important to note that everything DED points out in his article, happened prior to the launch of the iPhone 5S/C, when the much maligned iPhone 5 was Apple's standard bearer and Apple did not have a sub $450 handset strategy. I can see Google's January Earnings Report starting a trend showing decreasing search and maps market share, and declining ads revenue. If that does occur, and the above shows up in April and July reports I'd be a candidate for a Google short play for October.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 5, 2013 17:25:58 GMT -8
Of course. I'll defend my 20 multiple thesis at a more appropriate time. I guess I'm not understanding then. AAPL doesn't deserve a 20 multiple coming off a year that saw sizable yearly EPS decline. I'd love to see a 20 multiple, but would be very surprised if we saw it prior to January Earnings 2016, no matter how well earned/justified. It takes time to repair lost confidence in a high roller.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 5, 2013 18:19:57 GMT -8
The ground is a little firmer this year. The ground going forward is a lot firmer. Those concerned about AAPL should just let this play out, and ignore the daily ups and downs. On this we can agree.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 5, 2013 22:57:27 GMT -8
The ground going forward is a lot firmer. Those concerned about AAPL should just let this play out, and ignore the daily ups and downs. On this we can agree.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 5, 2013 23:04:35 GMT -8
Saw a commercial for a WinRT tablet tonight while watching Hulu. Don't know if it was current, but if I didn't know about the looming A7, Touch ID and iOS7 I would have been tempted. For sure it looked more compelling than Android. Funny thing about it, it was a direct comparison/attack against iPad and Siri. MSFT knows who the leader is even if the financial media does not.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 6, 2013 4:01:44 GMT -8
Anyone want to guess why TC and Icahn will be having another meeting again in less than 3 weeks? (presumably after earnings).
Why would TC bother meeting with him again in just 3 weeks? What will have changed that would make a conversation between them any different?
All Icahn is interested in is buybacks.
Any change in buyback amount would be announced during an Earnings Report (if apple sticks to past behaviour). The next one is under 3 weeks away.
Why would TC bother meeting with Icahn again to discuss buybacks immediately after October Earnings if there was no significant developments announced?
This entire post is based on a single seemingly trivial tweet, but the timing mentioned in the tweet seems potentially telling to be a hint from TC that he will have something to talk about in 3 weeks.
I'm sure many will think I'm reading to much into this, but have a think yourself and ask why you would schedule a meeting for an investor three weeks after having one, especially an investor who has stated he has little to discuss about your business other than your cash management.
It's been 6 months since the biggest corporate share buyback in US history was announced. Apple management likely didn't expect the share price to have remained at such cheap levels, and so what better opportunity than to accelerate and increase the share buyback plan. I've yet to come across a single reason why this isn't a good idea.
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Post by infohunter on Oct 6, 2013 6:25:33 GMT -8
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Post by nagrani on Oct 6, 2013 7:07:21 GMT -8
I think the 5c's job is to serve as an upgrade, next device - for the iPod touch and a cooler phone than the s4. Let's see how that plays out.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Oct 6, 2013 8:46:55 GMT -8
Saw a commercial for a WinRT tablet tonight while watching Hulu. Don't know if it was current, but if I didn't know about the looming A7, Touch ID and iOS7 I would have been tempted. For sure it looked more compelling than Android. Funny thing about it, it was a direct comparison/attack against iPad and Siri. MSFT knows who the leader is even if the financial media does not. Broadcast tv has been so inundated with these side by side iPad/windows 8 tablet commercials that there are parody backlashes. I mean, they are everywhere.... If anyone is tempted by a first generation Surface ( I have not tried the new generation) please do so. Slow, clunky, unintuitive. As for the even cheaper Win tablets, I have not seen a review yet that feels any of them are worth the money except as kid's gaming platforms.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 6, 2013 8:49:16 GMT -8
I found this statement particularly awkward. I mean, come on, how can a device that is doing no better than 2nd at two of the four largest US carriers slow share losses. Ranking the carriers by size: ATT 3 Verizon 3 Sprint 2 T-Mobile 1 multiply by sales ranking position #1 3 #2 2 #3 1 iPhone gets a score of 41 S4 gets a score of 14 Its an arbitrary scoring system, but reflects how silly the statement is.
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Post by artman1033 on Oct 6, 2013 8:58:01 GMT -8
I saw the new surface 2 ad on HULU. Very impressive ad.
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