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Post by Lstream on Oct 20, 2013 10:21:24 GMT -8
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 20, 2013 10:22:33 GMT -8
That's supposed to be a Sienna?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 20, 2013 10:25:03 GMT -8
Not bad deagol, not bad.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 20, 2013 10:47:55 GMT -8
That's supposed to be a Sienna? The Spongemobile was chock full of iOS7 features, including a navigation display for stock prices, refreshing every one-tenth of a mile...
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macorange
Member
My actual dog is cuter.
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Post by macorange on Oct 20, 2013 10:59:37 GMT -8
Deagol's little play is brilliant. My comment in his blog:
Best as I can figure, this [glut of bad analysis] is the downside of the explosion of public communication. 400 cable channels operating 24/7, a zillion bloggers, everyone publishing to everyone on Facebook. Never in history has there been this much opportunity to publish what is in someone's head. And guess what, most of it is not that well thought out!
Bottom line:
Listen to yourself, and a handful people that earn your trust. The rest is compost.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 20, 2013 11:08:23 GMT -8
I get this feeling the media won't have much control over the Apple/AAPL narrative as they might like all the way through 2014. iPad mini with retina will drop jaws.
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Post by Lstream on Oct 20, 2013 11:10:54 GMT -8
Pre-compost actually. Before the stuff stops stinking and is of any use.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Oct 20, 2013 12:08:53 GMT -8
A most excellent stage production. Question, does life imitate art, or does art imitate life?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 20, 2013 12:18:04 GMT -8
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 20, 2013 12:30:42 GMT -8
Deagol's little play is brilliant. My comment in his blog: Best as I can figure, this [glut of bad analysis] is the downside of the explosion of public communication. 400 cable channels operating 24/7, a zillion bloggers, everyone publishing to everyone on Facebook. Never in history has there been this much opportunity to publish what is in someone's head. And guess what, most of it is not that well thought out! At first I thought the proliferation of outlets would improve content, because space limitations couldn't censor out so much. Unfortunately, giving anybody with a horn to toot, access, has lowered the intelligence level of the content, and made it harder to find gems. Censorship can be good. I no longer get TV, broadcast or cable, and haven't missed anything, except the proliferation of crap. There's got to be a reason ESPN is the most popular media outlet, and not a "news"/"entertainment" forum.
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Post by rickag on Oct 20, 2013 13:11:49 GMT -8
Finally saw the iPhone 5S commercial, reminded me of liquid metal.
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Post by mcharliem on Oct 20, 2013 14:44:45 GMT -8
If we sell off on Wednesday ( as has often been the Apple pattern ) having moved well beyond the 500 call strike in price action ( say, 512) by Tuesday there might not be a strong pull back all the way to 500.... Because we might have "outrun" it's influence......does that make any sense? We might retreat on Wednesday to 505, say, but there would be no forced retreat to 500... That's perfectly reasonable logic. I think a lot of the misunderstand of the influence of large options traders is directly related to the misunderstanding of how they (the large traders) manage their positions in the first place. Without generalizing too much (and I'm sure there are exceptions) I would characterize that most people on this board manage their positions along the lines of something like this: I own x amount of AAPL shares from an average price of $425. I own some 540/550 April call spreads that I bought for very cheap and I'm planning on holding them through Jan earnings to see where they're at. And I own a few Jan '15 500 calls that I've been averaging into over the summer. If the stock jumps enough, I'll probably sell some higher strike calls and turn those into a spread too. I know my profit and loss for each of those positions as well as overall for my portfolio. Like I said, that's how I envision a lot of people on this board treat their positions. This is how a large option trader probably looks at his AAPL position: My delta at this moment is approximately 450. My gamma is 1550. My theta is -19000. My vega is 22500. It's a completely different way of looking at the position. Everyone is free to manage and interpret their own holdings however they please, but you can't assume that the "big boys" are looking at their positions the same way the people on this board do. For example, as I mentioned in the previous post, a position's gamma is almost certainly the most important value to analyze at all times. On this board, people discuss their positions all the time and yet I honestly can't remember a single time where someone mentioned what their gamma was. Or how they had too much gamma. Or not enough gamma going into an event. It just hardly ever seems to be discussed here, despite being such a critical aspect to managing a large options position. So what ends up happening is people assume that these "big boys" are just large sized versions of themselves. Someone here might be short a 500 strike call with the hope that it expires worthless. Come Friday afternoon they'll be watching the stock closely to see whether or not they need to cover the call or if it'll end up worthless. A large option trader doesn't do this, even if they had a position of hundreds of those 500-strike calls. They care about their Greeks and how any movements in price will effect their Greeks (as well as any pin-risk that may arise). So once and for all, if you want to analyze the effect that certain OI may have on AAPL's price, you need to look at the sum of the Greeks for those contracts. If you want to discuss and analyze what the "big boys" are doing, it's critical that you begin to think like they do. Don't look at the specific values of individual contracts, look only at the Greeks of these contracts and start by focusing on the gamma.
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Post by mcharliem on Oct 20, 2013 15:00:48 GMT -8
Wait mcharliem: I get your point as far as buyers. But STO counts towards increasing OI too. I don't understand what you're getting at. Short or long doesn't matter, the contract's Greeks are exactly the same either way.
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Post by appledoc on Oct 20, 2013 15:22:23 GMT -8
I wouldn't bother. You're not going to convince this crowd that the EOs aren't out to get them each and every week.
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Post by sponge on Oct 20, 2013 15:23:16 GMT -8
Sponge is in town.... Nice set of wheels. Sponge Bob is on every morning in our house every morning. Great show. I encourage you all watch it and you will appreciate this character more. ;D
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Ted
fire starter
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Post by Ted on Oct 20, 2013 15:45:57 GMT -8
I wouldn't bother. You're not going to convince this crowd that the EOs aren't out to get them each and every week. Perfect mix of arrogance and condescension there, doc. Trying to make friends around here? Thanks for your thoughts, mcharliem! Even someone as dumb as me appreciated it.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
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Post by JDSoCal on Oct 20, 2013 15:56:29 GMT -8
I wouldn't bother. You're not going to convince this crowd that the EOs aren't out to get them each and every week. Perfect mix of arrogance and condescension there, doc. Trying to make friends around here? Yep, always nice when Dr. Bedside Manner comes in to sprinkle some of his pixie dust in the forum.
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Post by appledoc on Oct 20, 2013 16:02:57 GMT -8
I wouldn't bother. You're not going to convince this crowd that the EOs aren't out to get them each and every week. Perfect mix of arrogance and condescension there, doc. Trying to make friends around here? Nope. I'm here for the humor now.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 20, 2013 16:06:15 GMT -8
Wait mcharliem: I get your point as far as buyers. But STO counts towards increasing OI too. I don't understand what you're getting at. Short or long doesn't matter, the contract's Greeks are exactly the same either way. Why would an uncovered call writer not care that AAPL shares keep going up? ;D
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 20, 2013 16:07:49 GMT -8
Sponge is in town.... Nice set of wheels. Sponge Bob is on every morning in our house every morning. Great show. I encourage you all watch it and you will appreciate this character more. ;D I had it all wrong! Of course this isn't a Sienna, there's no minivan door rails. *searches* There we go. The all-new Venza-looking Highlander.
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Post by appledoc on Oct 20, 2013 16:09:10 GMT -8
I don't understand what you're getting at. Short or long doesn't matter, the contract's Greeks are exactly the same either way. Why would an uncovered call writer not care that AAPL shares keep going up? ;D She's saying that looking at these positions in isolation is pointless because it doesn't give you the whole story. Big traders aren't sitting on one AAPL position made up of uncovered weeklies unless they don't want to be allowed back at work on Monday. Everything is a hedge when millions are on the line.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Oct 20, 2013 16:38:35 GMT -8
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Oct 20, 2013 16:56:33 GMT -8
I like the new ( first) iPhone 5s ad. Fluid beauty, touch, music supports the theme and adds a sexy tone. Gold...of course.
Now that we have order times down to 2-3 weeks and television ads, I assume we will see lots more 5s product in the channel very soon.
One can hope....
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Post by mcharliem on Oct 20, 2013 17:57:24 GMT -8
I don't understand what you're getting at. Short or long doesn't matter, the contract's Greeks are exactly the same either way. Why would an uncovered call writer not care that AAPL shares keep going up? ;D There's no possible way to tell whether any option is uncovered or not, that's the entire point. You keep focusing on this single contract when you have to forget the contract and instead treat it as a collection of its delta, gamma, theta, vega, and rho. A call that is comfortably in the money eventually approaches the exact same characteristics as a plain old 100 lot of shares. It approaches a 100 delta, and 0 for every other Greek. And once these contracts become 100 deltas, they cease to matter as options at all. The question you should be asking is, why would someone with 0 gamma care that AAPL shares keep going up? The answer is they wouldn't. 0 gamma positions are extremely easy to hedge. But someone who was short 1000 gamma would certainly care, because they'd be losing money at a faster and faster rate, and hedging the position is anything but straightforward.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 20, 2013 17:57:45 GMT -8
Raffi's back, btw. Yes# iPhone checker still showing pretty much zero availability on MFN Apple Retail Stores. I just hope Apple can make enough...before demand fades away. Y'know, gotta have that negative spin. ;D
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Post by tradervic on Oct 20, 2013 18:12:56 GMT -8
We're going up 2% tomorrow.
Why?
Cause it's my birthday.
Gold is best...
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Oct 20, 2013 18:17:46 GMT -8
We're going up 2% tomorrow. Why? Cause it's my birthday. Gold is best...
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Post by jdrizzo89 on Oct 20, 2013 18:27:22 GMT -8
Is that sponge car a new fire proof TESLA??
WAG: green Fridays and two weeks of pushing limits of pin means a run up Is coming
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 20, 2013 19:49:14 GMT -8
We're going up 2% tomorrow. Why? Cause it's my birthday. Gold is best... I finally found a Gold 32GB using the online service (see link below), intended for a new work phone to replace my crappy Ooma VOIP service (my one at home is fine). iphone-check.herokuapp.com(Sign up for notification by email when one becomes available)
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 20, 2013 19:55:07 GMT -8
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