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Post by nagrani on Oct 27, 2013 8:45:24 GMT -8
I agree 100%. I was a former participant in this (and actually placed 3rd and 1st). It's a complete sideshow and doesn't help the cause with apple. The good thing here is apple has done such a great job managing expectations that the estimates between amateurs and professionals are mixed nicely. Before - there was a big ass variance between the two groups.
Apple is really making the right moves.
I'm playing earnings big time this year.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 27, 2013 8:53:50 GMT -8
I agree 100%. I was a former participant in this (and actually placed 3rd and 1st). It's a complete sideshow and doesn't help the cause with apple. The good thing here is apple has done such a great job managing expectations that the estimates between amateurs and professionals are mixed nicely. Before - there was a big ass variance between the two groups. Apple is really making the right moves. I'm playing earnings big time this year. +1. I wish people would stop too. Sponge...are you listening? ;D (3.6M Macs sold in FQ4 -- come on, man, that won't even be in the ballpark). And I don't think it's helpful to raise expectations, which is EXACTLY what this is doing.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 27, 2013 9:09:28 GMT -8
You could always ask Braeburn Group to stop.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Oct 27, 2013 9:11:46 GMT -8
I have to agree. Everyone should read PED's follow up article on guidance to see the game is up.
If one pays attention to developments during a quarter ( like roll outs and first week sales, 8-k updates) then one can get pretty close to the total numbers.yeah, we can debate is it will be $8.23 or $8.45 and whether they sold two million more or fewer iPhones and if GM is up 20 Bp, but the silly season is over. Guidance now trumps all.
And sponge's Mac number is.....odd considering all we know and knew
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Post by Lstream on Oct 27, 2013 9:14:09 GMT -8
You could always ask Braeburn Group to stop. I tried that a quarter or two ago. Guess what happened?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 27, 2013 9:15:22 GMT -8
I still home game to make sure I keep up with my understanding of the company. Now the "trick" is to anticipate or at least understand growth trends and even some cost drivers. Sure you'll never get high granularity but I think the exercise still has value.
There's a big difference between "indie analysts should know their limits" or even better, "should know their place" if you wanna turn up the cynicism (hey, I know mine!) - and not even bothering with estimates IF you did bother before.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Oct 27, 2013 9:16:18 GMT -8
You could always ask Braeburn Group to stop. Some of them are well reasoned, some are not. But if the sandbag era is truly over, so is the game. If the top 20 forecasters are within 15 cents a share of each other, it's like IBM. No whoopie. I'm totally on board now with realistic guidance.build credibility. Just make guidance big!
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 27, 2013 9:21:38 GMT -8
Wait, did you mean "big whoop"? ;D
No disagreement whatsoever on revs/EPS. And you know Oppenheimer is guiding near the high end of that revs/implied EPS range. No real mystery anymore.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 27, 2013 9:30:18 GMT -8
Slightly different topic near and dear to iCahn: Think Apple bought anywhere near as many shares as last qtr? It _does_ have the cash but there's only been the one $17B debt issue. How "little" domestic cash is Apple comfortable having on hand before another bond financing round?
I'm sure Apple is watching interest rate trends (they still have a multi-month window, of course)
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Post by Deleted on Oct 27, 2013 9:49:00 GMT -8
No, just the dumb sap that seems to always end up losing out when it comes to earnings in almost every one for several years now. If I was long, then it would guarantee it going down. Don't ask me to short AAPL, though. I hear you, Birdie. I've been playing that game too, and with the same kind of luck you've been having. The swings post earnings are always fairly big, so at least it's possible to get on one of those and you're almost guaranteed to make money without the nowhere near the high level of risk that comes with being on board at earnings.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 27, 2013 9:52:06 GMT -8
You could always ask Braeburn Group to stop. I've tried. I've also told Robert he is risking his brand by allowing everyone and anyone to post #s. I mean, Braeburn has the waterfront covered at the low and high end. I don't think it's helpful to his site, frankly. Ok. Here's what Apple said in the 8K Apple expects total company revenue for the fourth fiscal quarter to be near the high end of the previously provided range of $34 billion to $37 billion, and expects gross margin to be near the high end of the previously provided range of 36% to 37%.Now, I've attached the guidance for the recent history of Tim's new approach. I think Apple beats and NOTHING in the 8k precludes a beat. If it's not a beat, WTF say anything, as Apple has beat the revenue number before and was silent (under the new guidance methodology). Another possibility: When Apple reported 9M iPhones, perhaps it wanted to curtail WS expectations by saying, in effect, don't get carried away with this.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 27, 2013 10:09:02 GMT -8
It's a tough one. Against inventory drawdown into the quarter (negative to GAAP reported units) is a HUGE sell-in of all new SKUs, with the 5C also counting as "new". The 8GB 4S probably had good sell-in since iPhone 4 was more popular than expected in FY '13
Just guessing of course, but it's possible close to half of all iPhones sold in fiscal Q4 were sold after launch.
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Post by nagrani on Oct 27, 2013 10:38:45 GMT -8
You could always ask Braeburn Group to stop. I've tried. I've also told Robert he is risking his brand by allowing everyone and anyone to post #s. I mean, Braeburn has the waterfront covered at the low and high end. I don't think it's helpful to his site, frankly. Ok. Here's what Apple said in the 8K Apple expects total company revenue for the fourth fiscal quarter to be near the high end of the previously provided range of $34 billion to $37 billion, and expects gross margin to be near the high end of the previously provided range of 36% to 37%.Now, I've attached the guidance for the recent history of Tim's new approach. I think Apple beats and NOTHING in the 8k precludes a beat. If it's not a beat, WTF say anything, as Apple has beat the revenue number before and was silent (under the new guidance methodology). Another possibility: When Apple reported 9M iPhones, perhaps it wanted to curtail WS expectations by saying, in effect, don't get carried away with this. Good thought! It's all about guidance, IMO.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 27, 2013 10:44:02 GMT -8
So few data points, but waiting to see if net income/GM beats are "still possible" under new guidance.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 27, 2013 10:47:42 GMT -8
So few data points, but waiting to see if net income/GM beats are "still possible" under new guidance. They've already beat (see above). It's about HOW MUCH they beat, but it won't be like the old days, that's for sure.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 27, 2013 10:50:00 GMT -8
Revs yes. GM/net income no.
Obviously rev beat implies GM/net income beat is possible. I just want to actually see it happen first.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 27, 2013 11:00:19 GMT -8
FASB is updating revenue recognition rules, potentially affecting some of those public companies that walk close to the line on disclosures re: the components of revenue (Amazon, Google, etc.). Disaggregation of revenue is going to be a significant component of the new disclosures. Apple will no doubt be impacted, but I don't see any negatives here.
Effective dates are January 1, 2017 for public companies.
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Post by JDSoCal on Oct 27, 2013 11:06:20 GMT -8
You could always ask Braeburn Group to stop. Some of them are well reasoned, some are not. Well reasoned what, guessers? That's what the word "model" is, a fancy name for "guess." Total complete bullshit. Charlatans. I joined Braeburn briefly just to see how all this "modeling" works. I was surprised to learn it is just guessing, with exactly *zero* actual data to back it up. Turns out, Apple is this extremely secretive company whose inner workings are almost completely opaque, and whose suppliers take omerta oaths. If JPM and GS with their enormous resources and worldwide contacts cannot penetrate Apple's supply chain and output sufficiently to make accurate estimates, how can some dude sitting in his pajamas? At least WS's guesses are relevant, since Apple has something to beat or miss. But the pajama brigade? Teats on a boar. No offense to those who partake in this game - some of you I like personally and respect in other contexts - but I give it zero credence until you explain your sources and data that have led to your "model." BTW, based on my supply chain checks, purchase surveys, and Web usage statistics, I am modeling the Broncos over the Redskins by 13.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Oct 27, 2013 11:15:12 GMT -8
It's the Seahawks year. Like the old days of apple earnings, they'll beat all expectations handily
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 27, 2013 11:46:18 GMT -8
Amazon announcing Kindle revenue for the first time ever? And Google announcing mobile/Android revs? Doubt it. ;D
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Post by Deleted on Oct 27, 2013 11:48:32 GMT -8
Well reasoned what, guessers? That's what the word "model" is, a fancy name for "guess." Total complete bullshit. Charlatans. I joined Braeburn briefly just to see how all this "modeling" works. I was surprised to learn it is just guessing, with exactly *zero* actual data to back it up. Turns out, Apple is this extremely secretive company whose inner workings are almost completely opaque, and whose suppliers take omerta oaths. If JPM and GS with their enormous resources and worldwide contacts cannot penetrate Apple's supply chain and output sufficiently to make accurate estimates, how can some dude sitting in his pajamas? At least WS's guesses are relevant, since Apple has something to beat or miss. But the pajama brigade? Teats on a boar. No offense to those who partake in this game - some of you I like personally and respect in other contexts - but I give it zero credence until you explain your sources and data that have led to your "model." BTW, based on my supply chain checks, purchase surveys, and Web usage statistics, I am modeling the Broncos over the Redskins by 13. LOL. How DARE you besmirch the concept of my WAGs. FWIW, there's a possibility for a sizable beat on GM which may not pan out and humble all of us thinking 37.5%+. In any event, guidance for FQ1 2014 should cover any disappointment with FQ4 2013 (my own only; Apple should report numbers that satisfy WS).
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Post by JDSoCal on Oct 27, 2013 13:09:06 GMT -8
So what does AAPL do tomorrow? Of course I have no way of knowing. But, if I had to model, I'd say we run up to 535 before close.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 27, 2013 13:13:56 GMT -8
I'm modeling disappointment with not having a weekly BCS bought on Friday if that happens.
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Oct 27, 2013 13:28:25 GMT -8
So what does AAPL do tomorrow? Of course I have no way of knowing. But, if I had to model, I'd say we run up to 535 before close. Hopefully, it plays out that well.
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Post by Apple II+ on Oct 27, 2013 13:38:20 GMT -8
I'd be shocked by a large beat. One should hope Apple uses "near the high end" to mean "near the high end." An 8-K on account of a large beat should have raised guidance.
Coming in just below the high end would not be a shock. As for why the 8-K, then? I like bud's post earlier.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Oct 27, 2013 13:39:30 GMT -8
So little chance of large disappointment tomorrow ( could be a small one, but that would have to do with guidance), I'm on board with a chug upwards until about 3:00 p.m. Eastern, at which time hedging and 'OMG, what did I do' kicks in
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Oct 27, 2013 13:44:43 GMT -8
I'd be shocked by a large beat. One should hope Apple uses "near the high end" to mean "near the high end." An 8-K on account of a large beat should have raised guidance. Coming in just below the high end would not be a shock. As for why the 8-K, then? I like bud's post earlier. I think near the high end also contemplates a 2-5% beat, and stays true to form. That is near enough. And I think that happens. If it could have been more, it will be quietly deferred to this quarter. So, watch guidance. We are all a broken record on that point
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 27, 2013 14:06:46 GMT -8
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Post by Deleted on Oct 27, 2013 14:39:51 GMT -8
I think near the high end also contemplates a 2-5% beat, and stays true to form. That is near enough. And I think that happens. If it could have been more, it will be quietly deferred to this quarter. So, watch guidance. We are all a broken record on that point I was waiting for someone to say this. Consider, a 2.5% beat above guidance produces a blockbuster quarter, and it certainly qualifies as "near" the top end of guidance. iPhones comprise 67% of total gross profit -- given the 9M iPhones sold on launch weekend, I think a 2.5% overall beat is not unreasonable. See below for the resulting impact on sales and GM (very similar to my WAG) if 2.5% is added to the top end of Oppie's range. I have NO IDEA what happens tomorrow. My WAG is it will be a solid report. And who knows how WS reacts to anything where AAPL is concerned.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 27, 2013 14:54:25 GMT -8
Let's just say, I want to agree that Oppenheimer's mysterious 8-K opens the door to a revenue _and_ net income beat.
I'm really liking the prospects for guidance if only because of the lower consensus bar. Total WAG, of course. ;D
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