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Post by Ultrarunner on Nov 2, 2013 21:30:06 GMT -8
Anyone bought/got to see an iPad Air today? Really is a beautiful device, even if it's "just a big iPad mini". Super-light for its size, and maybe I have to check my eyes out but it somehow looks way more substantial than it is. It's hard to explain...it's ridiculously thin but it doesn't look that way, maybe because of the rounded edges. It's just natural as heck to pick up and use. I didn't notice the "iPhone 1 nostalgia" until I saw iPad Air, even though it shares the same external design as the mini. Apple could reduce the top and side bezels still further I'm not sure reducing the side bezels any further would be a benefit Mav. In portrait mode on my new iPad Air, I find myself trying to keep my thumbs off the sides of the screen, without the wider bezel to grip. Another few days and I'll probably adapt. I sure appreciate the weight reduction. After owning iPads 1-4, I've really been waiting for this!
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 2, 2013 21:38:54 GMT -8
Sweet, someone who's seen or bought an Air! ;D
Ultrarunner, it's just idle speculation about ways to reduce the iPad Air's size even further in future generations - I see nothing wrong with the current dimensions. Apple made a deliberate design choice to leave some "frame", some space for fingers - even though it's "not enough" for many people, which means the software takes over when there's edge-touches.
iPad Air is a beautiful "luggable" tablet. And with supply apparently quite good, it's very clear where Apple's production ramp attention is focused right now.
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Post by joel90069 on Nov 2, 2013 23:22:42 GMT -8
Wangfujing Beijig Apple Store is packed. Lots of iPad Airs being sold and looks like plenty of stock.
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Post by phoebear611 on Nov 3, 2013 1:54:31 GMT -8
I'm miserable this morning - I live in NY and we moved our clocks back...but somehow my dogs did not get the memo and were up at 4:00 am. I'm on my third cup of coffee. Saturday experience in an Apple store: Yesterday walked into an Apple store and it was bustling. Stepped up to the counter with the hubby and we bought 3 iPad Airs .... in the silver (white) with 128GB. It really is noticeably lighter and a beautiful piece of art. I absolutely love it! Naturally, I inquired about how sales were going. The young man said that they are getting "large" shipments in every day and are selling out - but are somewhat meeting demand. They said that the 16GB cannot be kept in stock - it barely lasts a few hours...they fly out the door. I asked if one color was more popular than the other and he said no - it was a matter of GB not color. He said that older people are purchasing the lower GB and the youngsters are going for the extra GB (Hmmm....did he just pay me a back-handed compliment?) I also couldn't help but notice that several people were asking AAPL store employees for an explanation about why they didn't have the mini. I heard them say that it had been announced and they came down to buy one. The Genius had to explain that the announcement had been made but that they were not available yet - their understanding was on or about November 21st. I wonder how often throughout the day that happened. There was definitely confusion - but - on the other hand it was good to see the interest in the mini....by the way... I also noticed that every person asking about the mini just happened to be male...just an observation...clearly not scientific. Now for another pot of coffee ...
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Nov 3, 2013 2:03:48 GMT -8
Wangfujing Beijig Apple Store is packed. Oh come on, no way that's a real place.
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Post by appledoc on Nov 3, 2013 4:00:07 GMT -8
Anyone think we get a China Mobile rollout on November 11 (Singles' Day)? I'd say small chance. If not then, I would hope that the iPhone comes to CM in January.
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coma
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Post by coma on Nov 3, 2013 5:43:27 GMT -8
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Post by dylkeeg77 on Nov 3, 2013 7:05:31 GMT -8
I am still trying to wrap my head around almost 11 billion in defferred income. I am not an accountant.
Now if that money is taken off the table and dollar for dollar directly lowers gross margins, at some point (2-4 years) it should come back dollar for dollar and raise those gross margins. Correct?? So 900 million not counted this quarter will return in a future quarter on the top and bottom line?
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Post by appledoc on Nov 3, 2013 7:25:36 GMT -8
I am still trying to wrap my head around almost 11 billion in defferred income. I am not an accountant. Now if that money is taken off the table and dollar for dollar directly lowers gross margins, at some point (2-4 years) it should come back dollar for dollar and raise those gross margins. Correct?? So 900 million not counted this quarter will return in a future quarter on the top and bottom line? It's not 1:1 though. Easiest demonstration is AppleCare revenue, which is deferred. Revenue is deferred over the lifetime of the service, which is three years for a Mac, two for an iPad, etc, and gets added incrementally over that time frame to the top line. Also important to consider is the cost to Apple in providing these services that contribute to the deferred revenue pile. GM isn't 100%, although I would wager that on a majority devices on an individual basis it is.
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Post by dylkeeg77 on Nov 3, 2013 7:56:24 GMT -8
At some point the money returning from deferral has to exceed that which is being deferred, in which case it becomes another revenue source. Or at least it greatly mitigates the impact of money being deferred. Am I thinking right?
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Post by lorenzo on Nov 3, 2013 9:29:57 GMT -8
"I get that people THINK it's something that traders do, but it seems like a myth. Like I said before, I've never heard of anyone who actually does this. And since I can't imagine there's any edge to be had there, I can't imagine anyone consistently does it." I've since retired, but when I used to trade, I often participated in dividend spreads. They are low risk and potentially high reward. They are still done, and I'm sure we'll see a huge spike in volume on any deep call line with decent open interest. There is actually pretty decent expected value in a lot of these trades, thus much different than buying stock before a split. The idea is to get short a lot of calls on lines with large oi- ideally multiples of the oi. This is done mainly by doing 0 delta deep call spreads and exercising the long side of the spread. This leaves you short calls and long stock. You then hope that you don't get assigned on as many calls as possible. Your risk is you don't cover the commission costs of the trade (which becomes substantially reduced per contract with large volume) with the dividend proceeds from unexercised calls. Your profit = div proceeds from unexercised calls - (commission of trade + call extrinsic value). Also, a good rule of thumb is if the put on the same line as your long call is worth less than the div payment, the call should be exercised. If for margin reasons, you can not exercise the call, then close it out or roll it up to a nonexercise call. This should be done on the day before the stock goes ex. Lorenzo, here's my original post on the topic from Friday. (see below) The strategy of writing calls that you and I describe isn't what they're taking about. They're talking about going long into a dividend unhedged with the belief that the stock won't fully correct for the dividend the following day. "Just out curiosity, do you know anyone who actually does this (Buy right before ex-dividend with the intention of dumping right after)? I've honestly never seen or even heard of any trading firms or individuals to ever do this. The only strategy I've heard of is firms who write a ton of way-in-the-money calls right before ex-dividend (with a 100% hedge) with the hope that a significant number of those calls will go unexercised and they can profit on every call they still have short the day after ex-dividend. There's definitely edge in that strategy, the only question is how many calls go unexercised. But where exactly is the edge in buying a stock right before a dividend when known dividends are always completely priced in?" Got it- sorry I thought it was in the context of div spreads. My bad. Don't forget to exercise!
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Post by electrobuzz on Nov 3, 2013 9:47:11 GMT -8
At some point the money returning from deferral has to exceed that which is being deferred, in which case it becomes another revenue source. Or at least it greatly mitigates the impact of money being deferred. Am I thinking right? Here is an example calculation to give you an idea matthew-lew.com/apple-new-revenue-deferral/
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 3, 2013 11:00:34 GMT -8
The short answer is "it's complicated".
But generally speaking, assuming stable deferral rates but annual YOY unit growth from Apple, past deferrals will never catch up with present. Apple is pretty much always putting its financials at a disadvantage via revenue deferral. AFAIK, Apple has to with AppleCare and iTunes gift cards - but deferring as much as it does on iPhones, iPads and Macs, who knows.
Lew is right that if Apple's iPad/iPhone unit growth stagnates, then deferral impact is minimal. But iPad and iPhone both grew 20% YOY from fiscal '12. That scenario isn't playing out yet.
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Nov 3, 2013 11:25:59 GMT -8
At some point the money returning from deferral has to exceed that which is being deferred, in which case it becomes another revenue source. Or at least it greatly mitigates the impact of money being deferred. Am I thinking right? Here is an example calculation to give you an idea matthew-lew.com/apple-new-revenue-deferral/Good article.
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Nov 3, 2013 11:35:55 GMT -8
The short answer is "it's complicated". But generally speaking, assuming stable deferral rates but annual YOY unit growth from Apple, past deferrals will never catch up with present. Apple is pretty much always putting its financials at a disadvantage via revenue deferral. AFAIK, Apple has to with AppleCare and iTunes gift cards - but deferring as much as it does on iPhones, iPads and Macs, who knows. Lew is right that if Apple's iPad/iPhone unit growth stagnates, then deferral impact is minimal. But iPad and iPhone both grew 20% YOY from fiscal '12. That scenario isn't playing out yet. Seems to me the quarters that will benefit most are the "lull" quarters where the least units are sold, e.g., three quarters out from a big product release, wherein people are delaying purchases until product refresh (June?). Wouldn't this be the best place for net deferred revenue? Turd quarters with big sequential declines? Or are turd quarters already priced-in like any other quarters?
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Nov 3, 2013 13:43:25 GMT -8
I am intrigued by the charts in today's PED Column about iPad Air availability in the NYC area. 1) It gives a window of how complex it must be to decide how many of the different SKUs to ship to each location, and then tracking the required refresh rates 2) As PED asks, why does Sprint have such a different profile?...although I find ATT profile also very odd 3)Does the apparent popularity of the 128GB models herald the movement of the iPad from mainly a consumption device to greater productivity use, i.e., a "mini-truck" ?
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Post by infohunter on Nov 3, 2013 13:56:47 GMT -8
Lots of IPad Air commercials during the football games today, don't remember this many in the first weekend of a product release.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 3, 2013 13:57:30 GMT -8
Or the ridiculous markups people are...trying to get on the gray market? (Try again with the iPad mini retina, guys.)
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Post by phoebear611 on Nov 3, 2013 13:59:51 GMT -8
I am intrigued by the charts in today's PED Column about iPad Air availability in the NYC area. 1) It gives a window of how complex it must be to decide how many of the different SKUs to ship to each location, and then tracking the required refresh rates 2) As PED asks, why does Sprint have such a different profile?...although I find ATT profile also very odd 3)Does the apparent popularity of the 128GB models herald the movement of the iPad from mainly a consumption device to greater productivity use, i.e., a "mini-truck" ? Our salesperson yesterday said that besides the 16GB which are bought for leisure by older folks using them as a reader or internet device - they simply want the cache of saying it is an AAPL iPad.....the second most popular one was the 128GB - at least in this New York store. I was very surprised by that but your comments have given me an epiphany....you may be onto something.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Nov 3, 2013 14:09:46 GMT -8
I am intrigued by the charts in today's PED Column about iPad Air availability in the NYC area. 1) It gives a window of how complex it must be to decide how many of the different SKUs to ship to each location, and then tracking the required refresh rates 2) As PED asks, why does Sprint have such a different profile?...although I find ATT profile also very odd 3)Does the apparent popularity of the 128GB models herald the movement of the iPad from mainly a consumption device to greater productivity use, i.e., a "mini-truck" ? It's like trying to read a Ouija board....what does it mean? Some guesses: 1). The T-mobile 200 mg of free data may be drawing some buyers from AT&T. More than from Verizon and sprint. I also expect that AT&T had the lion's share of SKU's on launch week, being the most entrenched base. 2). Verizon looks about as I would expect. 3). Sprint is odd....their customer base may lend itself more to the storage capacities noted due to their unusual data plans. 4). We know 128 gig models are margin sweet. I wonder how many Apple made? Is this just a relatively few units selling out to early adapters.....or did they make plenty of them and this shows expanded demand for the iPad as the primary computing device, as you suggest? If the latter, pump out more Apple!
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Nov 3, 2013 14:12:26 GMT -8
Lots of IPad Air commercials during the football games today, don't remember this many in the first weekend of a product release. I liked the pencil commercial the first twenty times I saw it.....don't need to see it again, even though the great Walter White is the narrator!
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Post by phoebear611 on Nov 3, 2013 14:33:50 GMT -8
Lots of IPad Air commercials during the football games today, don't remember this many in the first weekend of a product release. I liked the pencil commercial the first twenty times I saw it.....don't need to see it again, even though the great Walter White is the narrator! You must be watching Patriots vs. Steelers...now they are pumping out the Surface commercials....every commercial is a tablet...geez!
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Nov 3, 2013 15:48:59 GMT -8
What do you guys think of the LeBron Samsung ad? I think it makes LeBron and his life look pretty appealing, but I'm not sure how Samsung fits into all of it. LeBron is also one of the most polarizing people in the NBA, so not sure why they picked him.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Nov 3, 2013 15:56:57 GMT -8
What do you guys think of the LeBron Samsung ad? I think it makes LeBron and his life look pretty appealing, but I'm not sure how Samsung fits into all of it. LeBron is also one of the most polarizing people in the NBA, so not sure why they picked him. I think you hit the key fact in their marketing plan. LeBron has a highly desirable perceived lifestyle for a specific demographic of ( I would guess) young males. If LeBron likes Samsing, it must be cool and they gotta have it... Will it work? Can Samsung be cool by association? As cool as Walter White....
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Post by phoebear611 on Nov 3, 2013 16:05:18 GMT -8
What do you guys think of the LeBron Samsung ad? I think it makes LeBron and his life look pretty appealing, but I'm not sure how Samsung fits into all of it. LeBron is also one of the most polarizing people in the NBA, so not sure why they picked him. Like you said - he is immensely polarizing. When the Heat was playing for the Championship, there was a poll done and there were so many people rooting AGAINST Miami BECAUSE they didn't want to see LeBron win. So I'm not so sure how well they will do with him.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Nov 3, 2013 16:19:59 GMT -8
What do you guys think of the LeBron Samsung ad? I think it makes LeBron and his life look pretty appealing, but I'm not sure how Samsung fits into all of it. LeBron is also one of the most polarizing people in the NBA, so not sure why they picked him. Like you said - he is immensely polarizing. When the Heat was playing for the Championship, there was a poll done and there were so many people rooting AGAINST Miami BECAUSE they didn't want to see LeBron win. So I'm not so sure how well they will do with him. My Seahawks are cooler than Lebron or anybody else....
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Post by qualitywte on Nov 3, 2013 16:58:07 GMT -8
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 3, 2013 16:58:40 GMT -8
Makes me wonder why they didn't do preorders...
They have to have enough millions or they won't bother, maybe?
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Nov 3, 2013 17:38:16 GMT -8
My Seahawks are cooler than Lebron or anybody else.... So that would be the "Alpha Quadrant Seahawks" to which you refer? ;D
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Post by nagrani on Nov 3, 2013 17:45:41 GMT -8
No preorders so people can stand in line.
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