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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 22, 2013 20:32:40 GMT -8
Helllooooooooo!
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Post by rickag on Nov 22, 2013 20:39:54 GMT -8
Hello to you, very somber mood here these days. On the bright side it's rainy and in the 30s here in North Texas...... oh wait....er um....well at least the market is closed and it is the weekend
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Post by ericinaustin on Nov 23, 2013 8:55:20 GMT -8
The quiet before the storm. I predict that in 6 months we will be talking about how quickly 700 will be taken out and when to consider another Vegas confab. I for one hope to be at this one. How's that for bright eyed optimism? ( of course here in Austin it's 35 and drizzling , but compared to drought we consider this nice weather). See?? Optimist.
Eric in Austin
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Post by sponge on Nov 23, 2013 9:33:16 GMT -8
The quiet before the storm. I predict that in 6 months we will be talking about how quickly 700 will be taken out and when to consider another Vegas confab. I for one hope to be at this one. How's that for bright eyed optimism? ( of course here in Austin it's 35 and drizzling , but compared to drought we consider this nice weather). See?? Optimist. Eric in Austin I think you maybe a year too early on 700 being taken out. I redid my numbers and I have a hard time seeing a p/e higher then 15. At 700 aapl would need a p/e of over 17. But if we do get to 700, I will organize a Vegas trip for this summerwith the 3 people left on this board.
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Post by sponge on Nov 23, 2013 9:35:53 GMT -8
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Post by rob_london on Nov 23, 2013 10:19:51 GMT -8
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 23, 2013 11:55:46 GMT -8
Hello, iPad. Hello to you, very somber mood here these days. If you're an options trader (I never learn) or long from 538+, I guess. Otherwise, I don't see any reason for alarm.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Nov 23, 2013 12:06:20 GMT -8
I don't want to jinx it, but I think this is the first time in a long while that I have seen a Friday AFB thread that didn't include any reference to Pain or Pinning.
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Post by sponge on Nov 23, 2013 12:34:57 GMT -8
I don't want to jinx it, but I think this is the first time in a long while that I have seen a Friday AFB thread that didn't include any reference to Pain or Pinning. It was there. 520:)
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,181
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Post by JDSoCal on Nov 23, 2013 15:21:18 GMT -8
I don't want to jinx it, but I think this is the first time in a long while that I have seen a Friday AFB thread that didn't include any reference to Pain or Pinning. I thought it was so obvious, I figured why give the trolls an invite to poo-poo it? I mean come on, 519.80 close with the top calls 520? I think one reason the thread volume has decreased is due to wanting to avoid the trolling responses (and I concede that I am not innocent of it, except that I am right when I do it).
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,181
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Post by JDSoCal on Nov 23, 2013 15:23:34 GMT -8
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Post by Nevyn on Nov 23, 2013 16:13:01 GMT -8
The quiet before the storm. I predict that in 6 months we will be talking about how quickly 700 will be taken out and when to consider another Vegas confab. I for one hope to be at this one. How's that for bright eyed optimism? ( of course here in Austin it's 35 and drizzling , but compared to drought we consider this nice weather). See?? Optimist. Eric in Austin I think you maybe a year too early on 700 being taken out. I redid my numbers and I have a hard time seeing a p/e higher then 15. At 700 aapl would need a p/e of over 17. But if we do get to 700, I will organize a Vegas trip for this summerwith the 3 people left on this board. Some of us are lurking.
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Post by aaplcrazie on Nov 23, 2013 18:12:01 GMT -8
My excuse was that I off for a couple of weeks making a Movie in Big Stone Gap.
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Post by prazan on Nov 23, 2013 18:42:14 GMT -8
Hello to you, very somber mood here these days. On the bright side it's rainy and in the 30s here in North Texas...... oh wait....er um....well at least the market is closed and it is the weekend Never underestimate the power of one poster who is willing to post the same message a half-dozen times a day to dominate the conversation. I don't think the mood here is somber; instead, I suspect we're all bored by this action. Of course, bored is better than terrified, in my opinion.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 23, 2013 18:57:25 GMT -8
prazan, you know I don't have that power. (To, uh, dominate conservations anyway.)
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Post by qualitywte on Nov 23, 2013 19:08:30 GMT -8
My excuse was that I off for a couple of weeks making a Movie in Big Stone Gap. VA?
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Post by aaplcrazie on Nov 23, 2013 20:07:38 GMT -8
Yes indeed.
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 23, 2013 21:03:06 GMT -8
Consolidation, volatility squeeze, straddling the daily SMA-20. Zzzzzzzz...
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,181
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Post by JDSoCal on Nov 23, 2013 21:07:46 GMT -8
Consolidation, volatility squeeze, straddling the daily SMA-20. Zzzzzzzz... Squeeze, straddle, and Zzzzzzzz..., sounds like my sex life.
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Post by esu2 on Nov 24, 2013 7:00:09 GMT -8
Good morning all, I am a casual reader and noticed the significant reductions in postings lately. Forgive me for my lack of insight, but I don't see any Greg Thurman postings anymore. I enjoyed his perspective and knowledge, although he was sometimes abrasive. What did I miss? Thanks
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coma
Member
Posts: 520
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Post by coma on Nov 24, 2013 7:24:54 GMT -8
Looks like he's in lurk mode . . .
Last Login Date: Today at 4:03am
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Post by sponge on Nov 24, 2013 8:04:07 GMT -8
Good morning all, I am a casual reader and noticed the significant reductions in postings lately. Forgive me for my lack of insight, but I don't see any Greg Thurman postings anymore. I enjoyed his perspective and knowledge, although he was sometimes abrasive. What did I miss? Thanks He has decided to no longer post here.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 24, 2013 8:49:51 GMT -8
I have surrendered all forums (that allow anyone and everyone to post) to the trolls. I log in long enough to check PMs and see if anything intelligent has been posted. Takes about 40 seconds.
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Post by rickag on Nov 24, 2013 9:49:51 GMT -8
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Post by artman1033 on Nov 24, 2013 12:03:17 GMT -8
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Nov 24, 2013 12:25:57 GMT -8
At this point in any quarter, but particularly this quarter, Apple investors know as much as they are likely to know.
1) New products have been announced, are rolling out..quickly or slowly...around the world.
2) Last quarter's revenue guidance, after a period of what if's, has settled in as the truth to live by...until Apple raises it...which won't happen if at all until late December.
3) The share buyback program no longer excites as it did originally because after the first quarter's big chunk of repurchased shares the second quarter's relative lag stalled more "what if they did this" chatter. It will now be what it will be, quarter by quarter. The approved cash return to shareholders program and limits are generally understood.
4) Take the general awareness of how revenue guidance and the share buyback drive EPS, the missing component is GM. We all speculated about GM being better or worse than anticipated due to Iphone mixes, Ipad Air likely success, Retina Mini production issues, The Retina Mini is out, in November, as promised by Apple...so not a whole lot to talk about here - the pieces for EPS are in place. Now how many of each product will Apple sell and can they make them efficiently to meet demand?
5) China Moblile. The one still meaningful unknown, with DoComo in the bag for this quarter....Between now and December 18 there will be lots of leaked posters, placards, website prints, bad translations and speculation about 4G network readiness and TD-SCMA chipsets. But in my view, there will be a China Mobile agreement. It is likely to look different than we all think and probably be both overt, stealthy and involve a lenthy rollout period. This bodes well (better) for the next fiscal quarter's numbers and Apple will teach all of us about what this means in January during the conference call and in placing guidance for the then current quarter.
All in all, we know a lot right now and its not bad. Revenue will grow and EPS will grow....but both for this quarter will be within ranges we have all pretty much learned to live with or dream about..but no massive beat coming.
Then there is the call walls in December and especially January. After January we should have largely broken the fever (if it exists) of Apple Leaps. The 2015's don't look nearly as glossy right now...
So, other than general chatter about which Star Trek Captain can really carry water (Is there any doubt....really...the man is a knight!) , a period fo APPL exhaustion has set in. Some retail investors of long standing are cashing their chips and moving on. Others are rebalancing or adding to their positions. Growth investors adios! Value investors, come on down! GARP investors Growth at a Reasonable Price (my favorites), have no reason to dislike the stock at today's P/E and dividend rate, knowing both will likely increase in 2014.
The Company continues to sell lots of product and is recognized as designing, manufacturing and promoting beautiful, machines populated by friendly, effective software. This won't change....and we all know it. But how to talk about it in new or interesting ways..or what to pay for the stock of that company....we are just in a bit of a dry spell.
JMHO.
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Post by cambrose on Nov 24, 2013 13:05:46 GMT -8
We still have the Mac Pro release in December. You would think after advertising it in theatres it would warrant more than a quiet press release, but who knows. Hoping there's so much pent up demand, they pre-announce astronomical numbers for this high margin item. Of course, I'm dreaming Regardless, I highly doubt it's release will be market moving. Got my game controllers… quietly rolled out.
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Nov 24, 2013 14:01:40 GMT -8
So, other than general chatter about which Star Trek Captain can really carry water (Is there any doubt....really...the man is a knight!) FYI, Captain Kirk has a new ship. And he might be looking for red shirts.
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Post by sponge on Nov 24, 2013 14:17:31 GMT -8
Based on guidance for this quarter, even if they beat the 58 billion, I still see flat net income YOY.
Next quarter is a different story. WS needs proof in order to buy, so sentiment won't change by much until Feb/March.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 24, 2013 14:39:53 GMT -8
Based on guidance for this quarter, even if they beat the 58 billion, I still see flat net income YOY. Everyone does. But why do they? You didn't forget deferrals, did you? Not even WS will entirely dismiss them.
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