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Post by coma on Nov 24, 2013 10:24:54 GMT -5
Looks like he's in lurk mode . . .
Last Login Date: Today at 4:03am
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Post by sponge on Nov 24, 2013 11:04:07 GMT -5
Good morning all, I am a casual reader and noticed the significant reductions in postings lately. Forgive me for my lack of insight, but I don't see any Greg Thurman postings anymore. I enjoyed his perspective and knowledge, although he was sometimes abrasive. What did I miss? Thanks He has decided to no longer post here. |
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greggthurman
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Post by greggthurman on Nov 24, 2013 11:49:51 GMT -5
I have surrendered all forums (that allow anyone and everyone to post) to the trolls. I log in long enough to check PMs and see if anything intelligent has been posted. Takes about 40 seconds.
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Post by rickag on Nov 24, 2013 12:49:51 GMT -5
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Post by artman1033 on Nov 24, 2013 15:03:17 GMT -5
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Nov 24, 2013 15:25:57 GMT -5
At this point in any quarter, but particularly this quarter, Apple investors know as much as they are likely to know.
1) New products have been announced, are rolling out..quickly or slowly...around the world.
2) Last quarter's revenue guidance, after a period of what if's, has settled in as the truth to live by...until Apple raises it...which won't happen if at all until late December.
3) The share buyback program no longer excites as it did originally because after the first quarter's big chunk of repurchased shares the second quarter's relative lag stalled more "what if they did this" chatter. It will now be what it will be, quarter by quarter. The approved cash return to shareholders program and limits are generally understood.
4) Take the general awareness of how revenue guidance and the share buyback drive EPS, the missing component is GM. We all speculated about GM being better or worse than anticipated due to Iphone mixes, Ipad Air likely success, Retina Mini production issues, The Retina Mini is out, in November, as promised by Apple...so not a whole lot to talk about here - the pieces for EPS are in place. Now how many of each product will Apple sell and can they make them efficiently to meet demand?
5) China Moblile. The one still meaningful unknown, with DoComo in the bag for this quarter....Between now and December 18 there will be lots of leaked posters, placards, website prints, bad translations and speculation about 4G network readiness and TD-SCMA chipsets. But in my view, there will be a China Mobile agreement. It is likely to look different than we all think and probably be both overt, stealthy and involve a lenthy rollout period. This bodes well (better) for the next fiscal quarter's numbers and Apple will teach all of us about what this means in January during the conference call and in placing guidance for the then current quarter.
All in all, we know a lot right now and its not bad. Revenue will grow and EPS will grow....but both for this quarter will be within ranges we have all pretty much learned to live with or dream about..but no massive beat coming.
Then there is the call walls in December and especially January. After January we should have largely broken the fever (if it exists) of Apple Leaps. The 2015's don't look nearly as glossy right now...
So, other than general chatter about which Star Trek Captain can really carry water (Is there any doubt....really...the man is a knight!) , a period fo APPL exhaustion has set in. Some retail investors of long standing are cashing their chips and moving on. Others are rebalancing or adding to their positions. Growth investors adios! Value investors, come on down! GARP investors Growth at a Reasonable Price (my favorites), have no reason to dislike the stock at today's P/E and dividend rate, knowing both will likely increase in 2014.
The Company continues to sell lots of product and is recognized as designing, manufacturing and promoting beautiful, machines populated by friendly, effective software. This won't change....and we all know it. But how to talk about it in new or interesting ways..or what to pay for the stock of that company....we are just in a bit of a dry spell.
JMHO.
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Post by cambrose on Nov 24, 2013 16:05:46 GMT -5
We still have the Mac Pro release in December. You would think after advertising it in theatres it would warrant more than a quiet press release, but who knows. Hoping there's so much pent up demand, they pre-announce astronomical numbers for this high margin item. Of course, I'm dreaming  Regardless, I highly doubt it's release will be market moving. Got my game controllers… quietly rolled out. |
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JDSoCal
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"Irrationally discounted"
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Post by JDSoCal on Nov 24, 2013 17:01:40 GMT -5
So, other than general chatter about which Star Trek Captain can really carry water (Is there any doubt....really...the man is a knight!) FYI, Captain Kirk has a new ship. And he might be looking for red shirts. |
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Post by sponge on Nov 24, 2013 17:17:31 GMT -5
Based on guidance for this quarter, even if they beat the 58 billion, I still see flat net income YOY.
Next quarter is a different story. WS needs proof in order to buy, so sentiment won't change by much until Feb/March.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 24, 2013 17:39:53 GMT -5
Based on guidance for this quarter, even if they beat the 58 billion, I still see flat net income YOY. Everyone does. But why do they? You didn't forget deferrals, did you? Not even WS will entirely dismiss them. |
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burgess
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Post by burgess on Nov 24, 2013 18:47:44 GMT -5
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burgess
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Post by burgess on Nov 24, 2013 18:49:13 GMT -5
Based on guidance for this quarter, even if they beat the 58 billion, I still see flat net income YOY. Next quarter is a different story. WS needs proof in order to buy, so sentiment won't change by much until Feb/March. If net income is flat, we will still see growth in EPS (thank you buyback!) |
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 24, 2013 18:55:07 GMT -5
Net income takes a hit of over $650M (factoring in tax rate) thanks to dollar-for-dollar gross margin deferral based on Oppenheimer's guidance. That's 5% of the year-ago quarter's net income. No fair-minded analyst will ignore that.
And as burgess said, EPS matters too (though maybe Apple won't buy back more than a "few billion worth" without a new bond issuance).
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 24, 2013 19:02:08 GMT -5
I doubt this will be enough to get Mercel posting here if only to react to this. (Yep, that's a troll. ;D) |
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Nov 24, 2013 19:28:00 GMT -5
Net income takes a hit of over $650M (factoring in tax rate) thanks to dollar-for-dollar gross margin deferral based on Oppenheimer's guidance. That's 5% of the year-ago quarter's net income. No fair-minded analyst will ignore that. And as burgess said, EPS matters too (though maybe Apple won't buy back more than a "few billion worth" without a new bond issuance). Good point Mav, and as the effect of both the deferral and the buyback is built into Analyst expectations we begin to get a cleaner appreciation of just what Apple is accomplishing and how it is being booked. Frankly, the strength of the deferral should allow for a higher EPS...we should see a 14 EPS in an environment of steady even unspectaculor growth....like next year! |
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Regardless, I highly doubt it's release will be market moving.
