Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 6, 2013 16:44:09 GMT -8
Heck, why not.
Over-bullish (?) back-of-the-napkin math has me more and more convinced that Apple may ring in the quarter in the neighborhood of $60B revs/$15 EPS, even WITH those deferrals "hurting" revenues and margins.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 30, 2013 17:12:46 GMT -8
Heck, why not. Over-bullish (?) back-of-the-napkin math has me more and more convinced that Apple may ring in the quarter in the neighborhood of $60B revs/$15 EPS, even WITH those deferrals "hurting" revenues and margins. So what's everyone else's guesses? The whisper number is $14.03 right now, but not sure how accurate those tend to be. I sure hope we're at least $14.50
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Post by Deleted on Dec 30, 2013 17:17:33 GMT -8
Even just matching last years numbers, we should hit $14.50 due to roughly 5% fewer shares. If we're under $14.50, then Apple is showing shrinking EPS again (without buy back) and it'll be time to find something else to invest in
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 30, 2013 17:22:12 GMT -8
Like shrinking EPS is a problem for AMZN.
C'mon. WS doesn't care much about fiscal Q1 as long as it's "OK". Guidance for Q2 and Q3 is the major storyline over the next few months.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 30, 2013 17:50:41 GMT -8
Apple is not Amazon...so, with that said, the story will be guidance for Q2, we agree there. But there's no way Apple will respond positively if they guide to falling EPS. Look at what happened last year, 4 quarters of decline and we fell dramatically. The only reason we're up over the past few months is because Wall Street expects growth to resume.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 30, 2013 19:23:10 GMT -8
You should read my blog, the fundamentals posts. I wrote about some of that there. ;D
Absent something really bad - net income growth WILL resume, Q2 and onward anyway, for the intermediate term until we see something different from Apple. And it doesn't even need China Mobile. But that's just me.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 30, 2013 19:26:17 GMT -8
You should read my blog, the fundamentals posts. I wrote about some of that there. ;D Absent something really bad - net income growth WILL resume. And it doesn't even need China Mobile. But that's just me. I agree...it should grow this quarter. I was worried about next quarter because of the wider iPhone launch this quarter, but china mobile has alleviated those concerns.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 30, 2013 20:29:44 GMT -8
Three letters, twice.
YOY (unit growth).
ASP (stability/trend reversal).
Two letters, once.
GM (stability/trend reversal).
It's really pretty simple on a high-level scale once you've been looking at the numbers for long enough.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 30, 2013 21:59:37 GMT -8
Three letters, twice. YOY (unit growth). ASP (stability/trend reversal). Two letters, once. GM (stability/trend reversal). It's really pretty simple on a high-level scale once you've been looking at the numbers for long enough. Unit growth should be a given...it's the other 2 I'm worried about
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 10, 2014 17:29:21 GMT -8
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 10, 2014 19:13:35 GMT -8
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Post by bloodylongaapl on Jan 11, 2014 4:26:26 GMT -8
Mav this is great work, credit where credit is due. You should try to get published.
Whilst typing it would be silly not to comment on your reasoning. I think iPad may be low, I am looking for 20-25% YoY growth. iPad Air is the first true form factor change since iPad 2, and Lightning has now been popularised by virtue of a second generation of phone using it. I expect a lot of upgrades. I think your Mac number is too high - somewhere vaguely in the region of 50% of Macs are sold internationally, but you've pitched your growth at the midpoint of the IDC/Gartner US estimates. Finally I, like you, expect $58B+ revenue.
I look forward to the next chapter. As far as Q1 goes, GM is the big story for WS I think.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 12, 2014 14:43:54 GMT -8
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 12, 2014 14:46:17 GMT -8
Mav this is great work, credit where credit is due. You should try to get published. Whilst typing it would be silly not to comment on your reasoning. I think iPad may be low, I am looking for 20-25% YoY growth. iPad Air is the first true form factor change since iPad 2, and Lightning has now been popularised by virtue of a second generation of phone using it. I expect a lot of upgrades. I think your Mac number is too high - somewhere vaguely in the region of 50% of Macs are sold internationally, but you've pitched your growth at the midpoint of the IDC/Gartner US estimates. Finally I, like you, expect $58B+ revenue. I look forward to the next chapter. As far as Q1 goes, GM is the big story for WS I think. Thanks. I like the way the guidance thought exercise makes me challenge my assumptions. I can't imagine iPad growing so slowly - and yet a 20% YOY growth rate would bring about a rev beat all by itself. I also thought Mac YOY growth was too high - but I did some more research, and I'm actually OK with it for the moment - because Mac tanked a little over 20% YOY last holiday quarter (suggesting iMac may be closer to a million-seller per quarter than I thought).
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 15, 2014 11:14:37 GMT -8
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 16, 2014 16:44:07 GMT -8
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 19, 2014 13:14:09 GMT -8
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jan 19, 2014 17:07:48 GMT -8
14.98
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Post by Deleted on Jan 19, 2014 19:00:55 GMT -8
I'm at 60.16B and $15.07. ASPs of the iPad are going to put Apple over the $60B top
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Post by Deleted on Jan 19, 2014 19:57:03 GMT -8
Come on you two pussies, let's see an EPS with a $15 handle
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 19, 2014 20:32:59 GMT -8
[...] let's see an EPS with a $15 handle Heh. Yeah, well show your work Mercel. You know why I'm not at $15 EPS...it's mostly because of iPhone ASP holding me back. I have the most of my limited conviction in the YOY unit growth rate, and my WAG is iPhone ASP recovered from $577 last quarter. But if iPhone ASP is any higher, the numbers just get too high for comfort (for me, anyway). I still need to be convinced that iPhone ASP can get back to $600. If it takes actual numbers and me being off the mark on ASP, so be it.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 20, 2014 23:00:49 GMT -8
New discussion topic for all 3-5 of us.
Is $60B without a Q1 guidance revision "a bridge too far"? Oppenheimer used to under promise big time in the past. And maybe there was some genuine uncertainty about the ability to ramp iPad Air and iPad mini retina.
OTOH, Apple's rev beats have been all of $600M and $500M since the switch to range guidance, though these were obviously non-holiday quarters. The $600M rev beat in fiscal Q2 was "without warning" though the $500M rev beat in fiscal Q4 did have an 8-K.
It's tough to have so little data to go on, but hey...
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 21, 2014 14:14:07 GMT -8
Verizon's slowing smartphone sales is just one data point, but one to be respected.
If only we had some clue whether iPhone activations would actually decrease YOY across the US. And we never will, except for those fragments of clues from trying to sort through Americas revenue geography numbers...
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Post by Deleted on Jan 21, 2014 18:02:35 GMT -8
New discussion topic for all 3-5 of us. Is $60B without a Q1 guidance revision "a bridge too far"? Oppenheimer used to under promise big time in the past. And maybe there was some genuine uncertainty about the ability to ramp iPad Air and iPad mini retina. OTOH, Apple's rev beats have been all of $600M and $500M since the switch to range guidance, though these were obviously non-holiday quarters. The $600M rev beat in fiscal Q2 was "without warning" though the $500M rev beat in fiscal Q4 did have an 8-K. It's tough to have so little data to go on, but hey... Tough to say, Apple hasn't beat guidance by much since this new accurate guidance...would PO do a revision if they beat significantly? I sure hope not If iPhone sales start decreasing in the US, that's a terrible sign for growth and just more proof that any significant growth will only come from new product categories.
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Jan 22, 2014 15:51:07 GMT -8
Sorry to break in here, guys, but I desperately need a break from Intraday...God, I miss the ignore button.
First, all due respect to those of you who make the effort to run the numbers (and make the numerous judgment calls on how to interpret and apply them).
So my question to you is: Did Oppy's new guidance approach help or hurt the price of AAPL? It just seems like there is no possibility of a WOW! factor anymore. Admittedly, there was much greater risk on the down side with the old regimen, but now it just seems that if they meet guidance, even on the high end, it is spun as a disappointment, a validation of the "incremental, no innovation" meme.
Thanks again for your many contributions. 0h, and Mav, apologies for the typo on your EPS call.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 22, 2014 16:35:54 GMT -8
What typo wha?
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Jan 23, 2014 8:12:50 GMT -8
Last weekend thread. You remember..."a bridge too far." I wrote $16 when I meant $15
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 25, 2014 17:30:54 GMT -8
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